Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

Yes, these companies are being generous by offering these plans. The plans exist to encourage consistent moviegoing, which in 2023 also includes hot food and alcohol sales.

Theatrical’s numbers are inflated. Movies only occasionally hit zeitgeist status. That’s bad for business.

On the subscription side of things, like streaming, the prices are not static. If the value increases with more movie releases, the price of the subscription plans will go up.

Market can and will always change. Theaters are not dead, nor are they dying. This year alone you have seen plenty of studios have their most profitable years than ever. Other businesses and their studios will have to keep up if they want to keep playing competitively.

What do you mean by numbers are inflated?

It is fact movies were more attended and more money was spent on them than the previous two years. Things are growing. Not shrinking. Studios are slowly distributing more movies again. Studios are not back to 2019 number of theatrical releases yet but every year has grown.(writer's strike likely did not slow that too much)

Streaming Services are even getting in on theatrical releases first.


What do you define as zeitgiest status? It is hard to tell with just releases this year.

Some may end up being a flash in the pan but success wise we had Barbie, Mario, Spiderverse sequel and Oppenheimer hit some great popularity this year. That is really good considering we are still only around half of what released in 2019(which were mostly Star Wars and Marvel sequels)

You also have a lot of moderate budget smash hits and well received films.


Some of you always want to revert just because it was a bad year for a studio or two, the entire industry must be in peril.

 

[Disney Irish]

'
It would not be offered if they did not want people participating in it.

(your concept could literally be said about Streaming Service's struggle in the marketplace too. Cancelling shows, reducing season size. Reaching for deep nostlagia, adding more ads)


Plenty of people also still spend per movie in the theaters.

I don't know what you are talking about more content? There are more releases than 2020, 2021 and 2022 but not yet back to 2019. We are still short dozens of movies.

2024 and beyond is planned to have more releases than 2023.


If 2023 had less money and people coming in than 2021 or 2022, or stayed stagnant, you may have a case. It has only grown.
More people are going to theaters than 2020, 2021 and 2022. Things are getting better, making more money than those other years. Not less.

Up Millions in attendance and over a billion up this year in revenue. No sign of anything but growing so far.

There is a reason why all the trades use comparisons with pre-pandemic years for growth forecasts. Its because using 2020 as your starting basis for growth forecasts fails the mark. Yes of course when you compare with the lowest year in history things will always look better. Yet when compared to 2018/2019 ticket sales and overall box office is still off ~25%, and its not looking to rebound to that point soon if ever.

So the question is more when the equilibrium of the post-pandemic/post-streaming era box office happens, ie when things stabilize and we get a real sense of the true post-pandemic/streaming era box office. And 2024 might be that year, but we'll have to wait and see as things get adjusted more post-strikes.

 

[Disney Irish]

CinemaBlend posted the same thing that some of us have been saying for awhile now -

Everyone Is Quick To Say Disney Has A Box Office Problem, But I Think It Has A Streaming Problem

Dinsey+ might be the worst villain

www.cinemablend.com

 

[celluloid]

There is a reason why all the trades use comparisons with pre-pandemic years for growth forecasts. Its because using 2020 as your starting basis for growth forecasts fails the mark. Yes of course when you compare with the lowest year in history things will always look better. Yet when compared to 2018/2019 ticket sales and overall box office is still off ~25%, and its not looking to rebound to that point soon if ever.

So the question is more when the equilibrium of the post-pandemic/post-streaming era box office happens, ie when things stabilize and we get a real sense of the true post-pandemic/streaming era box office. And 2024 might be that year, but we'll have to wait and see as things get adjusted more post-strikes.

You don't have to use 2020 as your starting basis. You just have to know ratios.

How many films were theatrically released in 2019? Go ahead and look. I will save you time. Near 800.

How many films were theatrically released in 2020(not many obviously)
2021 406. Just around a little more than half of 2019.

2022 449. (not quite up to 2019 now is it?)

2023. Still hundreds short.

So you don't have all of the facts.

Once we get to about 800 releases theatrically a year, and the box office numbers are not growing, or are a billion plus less. Then you have a trend or a point.


Let me sum it up this way.

Disney is not going to stop releasing theatrical movies altogether before anyone else. They want money from both. Theaters are making more money than they were, and concessions and sales are better attended as more movies are released.

So if the theaters won't stop showing, and the other studios are fine having their biggest success years since 1993. Guess what Disney has to do? They have to stay competitive.

It is fair to say that if Mermaid, Haunted Mansion and Wish alone would have done better and 100 more movies were theatrically released, you would see that number at, surpassed or pretty darn near 11 billion.
The theatrical box office industry is ending this year at 8 billion. Up another billion from last year. Number of films released theatrically in the big picture are growing every year since the pandemic, not shrinking.
Theaters were not going to rush right back to 2019 levels no matter what. They have done amazingly well considering they have half the content out.

 

[Disney Irish]

You don't have to use 2020 as your starting basis. You just have to know ratios.

How many films were theatrically released in 2019? Go ahead and look. I will save you time. Near 800.

How many films were theatrically released in 2020(not many obviously)
2021 406. Just around a little more than half of 2019.

2022 449. (not quite up to 2019 now is it?)

2023. Still hundreds short.

So you don't have all of the facts.

Once we get to about 800 releases theatrically a year, and the box office numbers are not growing, or are a billion plus less. Then you have a trend or a point.


Let me sum it up this way.

Disney is not going to stop releasing theatrical movies altogether before anyone else. They want money from both. Theaters are making more money than they were, and concessions and sales are better attended as more movies are released.

So if the theaters won't stop showing, and the other studios are fine having their biggest success years since 1993. Guess what Disney has to do? They have to stay competitive.

It is fair to say that if Mermaid, Haunted Mansion and Wish alone would have done better and 100 more movies were theatrically released, you would see that number at, surpassed or pretty darn near 11 billion.
The theatrical box office industry is ending this year at 8 billion. Up another billion from last year. Number of films released theatrically in the big picture are growing every year since the pandemic, not shrinking.
Theaters were not going to rush right back to 2019 levels no matter what. They have done amazingly well considering they have half the content out.

Except you're making the assumption that Hollywood wants to get back to releasing over 800 films a year (which was the highest it ever was by the way, most modern years were in the 650-725 range). There is no indication that is the case. As if they really wanted to do that Hollywood could have released many more movies this year, but they didn't. They only released slightly more than 2022.

All you have to do is look at this year and how crowded the release calendar already was, and how many movies didn't have time to breathe and find an audience because other films were taking up the oxygen. No I can't see Hollywood releasing even more movies into that type of situation so even less money can be split among them. Not to mention that even if they did would it really make any difference in the overall number of tickets sold and box office take, probably not by much.

Also you forget one thing, streaming. Back in 2018/2019 the only game in town really was Netflix, who was not getting first run releases at the time. Now not only are there more streamers and PVOD options, there are more first run movies going either direct to streaming or PVOD. I have to imagine that a large majority of the ~350 less films that would have normally been released to theaters in prior pre-pandemic years went to streaming or PVOD options instead. And that is likely not to reverse course in the huge numbers you're assuming to have happen.

So as I mentioned before we'll have to wait and see when the equilibrium of the post-pandemic/post-streaming era box office happens. But I don't see the number of releases changing dramatically, only slight increases over last year and this year, maybe in the 525-625 range.

 

[celluloid]

Except you're making the assumption that Hollywood wants to get back to releasing over 800 films a year (which was the highest it ever was by the way, most modern years were in the 650-725 range). There is no indication that is the case. As if they really wanted to do that Hollywood could have released many more movies this year, but they didn't. They only released slightly more than 2022.

Oh but they do. It fluctuates but they definitely and clearly want more as the numbers have jumped significantly since 2021 to now. What "Hollywood" wants is irrelevant. Other studios are fine getting in on the market if any other studios back out. As proven. Toho just had their best foreign US money making release in existence on a limited theater and time run. Universal had their best year since the 90s.

Take Disney for example, they are so desperate to they are pushing Hulu Original films and previous Disney Plus releases that have been out for years back into theaters. If they were moving away from that they would be fine with them on the platform.

Netflix and Apple want in on this too and show signs of expanding their offerings.

There is simply no evidence to anything you claim.

We are still hundreds away, but slowly growing back to that. It was only three years ago dude. And it is all increasing. If we had less films and or less revenue, you would have a point. Both of these are proven not to be the case.

Other studios have no plans to stop releasing in theaters, so Disney is going to have to stay competitive for a slice of that, and wish they had the slice of that they have invested to like other companies this year did.


You are edging your way back into this is such a continuing industry problem, but it is one that has been doing nothing but healing since 2021.
The tide increased and many ships rose, Disney, did not.
Disney just needs to avoid years like this one for them.

 

[_caleb]

Theater attendance is slightly up from last year, way up from the pandemic, but way down from pre-pandemic numbers.

U.S. & Canada: number of movie tickets sold 2023 | Statista

Throughout 2023, movie theaters in the United States and Canada managed to sell slightly more tickets than in 2022.

www.statista.com

 

[celluloid]

Theater attendance is slightly up from last year, way up from the pandemic, but way down from pre-pandemic numbers.

U.S. & Canada: number of movie tickets sold 2023 | Statista

Throughout 2023, movie theaters in the United States and Canada managed to sell slightly more tickets than in 2022.

www.statista.com

Very good. How many films were released in that era compared to now?

If less people or less gross for box office went in 2022, to 2023, you may have a point.

3/4ths back up to 2019 with around half the releases. It checks out.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh but they do. It fluctuates but they definitely and clearly want more as the numbers have jumped significantly since 2021 to now.

Except you don't know that for a fact. You're making an assumption. Also jumping from a little over 300 releases in 2020 to just under ~475 in 2023, is not the same as them wanting to go all the way back to over 800 release like in 2018.

Yes there will be an increase year-over-year until we hit an equilibrium as I keep mentioning, but you do not know for a fact it'll be close to pre-pandemic levels, that is just an assumption. As I mentioned I see something closer to the 525-625 range for the next several years, which is still an increase over the last 3 years.

Take Disney for example, they are so desperate to they are pushing Hulu Original films and previous Disney Plus releases that have been out for years back into theaters. If they were moving away from that they would be fine with them on the platform.

You're using a handful of films as your proof, but its not the data that you think it is.

Netflix and Apple want in on this too and show signs of expanding their offerings.

And how have those performed.... Not very well. And that is likely to result in changes in business decisions of those two companies.... To possibly less releases than more.

Plus most of their releases are for award plays, not box office draw.

There is simply no evidence to anything you claim.

The evidence is in the box office itself. The evidence is that Hollywood has a backlog of movies sitting on a shelf that could have been released this year, and yet they sat on them. There was nothing holding them back this year, it could have been full steam ahead and released hundreds more movies into the market, but they didn't. So that is all the evidence that is needed to show that Hollywood is not looking to release ~800 movies a year. Yes there will be some increase year-over-year, but it won't get back to those pre-pandemic levels that you claim.

We are still hundreds away, but slowly growing back to that. It was only three years ago dude. And it is all increasing. If we had less films and or less revenue, you would have a point. Both of these are proven not to be the case.

You're still making an assumption, its not a fact that everything will get back to pre-pandemic levels.

Other studios have no plans to stop releasing in theaters, so Disney is going to have to stay competitive for a slice of that, and wish they had the slice of that they have invested to like other companies this year did.

Maybe you confuse me with someone else, but I never claimed that Disney nor other studios planned on stopping theatrical completely. All I'm saying is that your assumption that it'll get back to pre-pandemic levels is just that an assumption, and that there is no evidence of that being the case. Correlation is not causation, just because there have been slight increases in the number of releases post-pandemic doesn't mean its going to go all the way back to pre-pandemic levels.

 

[celluloid]

Maybe you confuse me with someone else, but I never claimed that Disney nor other studios planned on stopping theatrical completely. All I'm saying is that your assumption that it'll get back to pre-pandemic levels is just that an assumption, and that there is no evidence of that being the case. Correlation is not causation, just because there have been slight increases in the number of releases post-pandemic doesn't mean its going to go all the way back to pre-pandemic levels.

No one knows if it will get back to pre pandemic levels. Nor does it have to to be healthy and thriving.
That is the point.

And I confuse you with no one, but let's say the guy who said Trolls 3 would top The Marvels and Wish in the box office, knows a little bit more about healthy box office prediction and following trends then you do as you in the past mocked and denied it, and obviously not proven wrong has been around the block more with this sort of thing.

Disney had a smaller piece of the pie than they should while plenty of others got back what they put into it with healthy profits.

That is the simple point. No one knows the future, that is always what you go to with another's point. It is all assumptions.

But the trends of growth are there and so far continue to be, not shrinking.

 

[Disney Irish]

Very good. How many films were released in that era compared to now?

If less people or less gross for box office went in 2022, to 2023, you may have a point.

3/4ths back up to 2019 with around half the releases. It checks out.

Number of tickets sold have been trending down for the last two decades. That isn't going to increase just because a few hundred more films get released into the market, if that was the case then 2018 and 2019 would have sold more tickets than any other year and that wasn't the case.

 

[celluloid]

Number of tickets sold have been trending down for the last two decades. That isn't going to increase just because a few hundred more films get released into the market, if that was the case then 2018 and 2019 would have sold more tickets than any other year and that wasn't the case.

If that attempt at an argument had any basis, theaters would have given up after 1939. Still the highest attended year.

You really have a poor sense on history of this which I think explains your bad predictions.

Its a pie of studios. Most are back to making more money than they were. Slow smart growth.

Disney went in tentpoles a blazing with content people don't care to see.

 

[Disney Irish]

No one knows if it will get back to pre pandemic levels. Nor does it have to to be healthy and thriving.
That is the point.

And I confuse you with no one, but let's say the guy who said Trolls 3 would top The Marvels and Wish in the box office, knows a little bit more about healthy box office prediction and following trends then you do as you in the past mocked and denied it, and obviously not proven wrong has been around the block more with this sort of thing.

Disney had a smaller piece of the pie than they should while plenty of others got back what they put into it with healthy profits.

That is the simple point. No one knows the future, that is always what you go to with another's point. It is all assumptions.

But the trends of growth are there and so far continue to be, not shrinking.

Except if you really did follow the trends then you would know the box office has been shrinking based on the number of tickets sold. And that hasn't been affected by the number of releases a year, its still has continued to trend down. And that its actually been inflation via increases in ticket prices that have caused the box office to go up in pre-pandemic years.

 

[celluloid]

Except if you really did follow the trends then you would know the box office has been shrinking based on the number of tickets sold. And that hasn't been affected by the number of releases a year, its still has continued to trend down. And that its actually been inflation via increases in ticket prices that have caused the box office to go up in pre-pandemic years.

Nope, even with inflation there is incredible growth of attendance from 2022-2023.

You are trying to conflate too things.

Are audiences back in numbers yet? Of course not.

Are they growing every year? So far.

Do they have to get back to the same numbers?

Nope. The same way they have not had to get back to the 1970s or 1930s.

Audiences just need to pay enough for the studios to make a healthy profit on the output they produce. The ROI.

The mouse is the only one who has been dropping on that.

No Zeitgiest film this year for that studio, and most had the budget of an attempt at one.

 

[Disney Irish]

If that attempt at an argument had any basis, theaters would have given up after 1939. Still the highest attended year.

You really have a poor sense on history of this which I think explains your bad predictions.

Its a pie of studios. Most are back to making more money than they were. Slow smart growth.

Disney went in tentpoles a blazing with content people don't care to see.

Classic strawman.

Anyways, data over the next year will show whatever it will show. I have an opinion a certain way and you have an opinion a different way. We'll see what happens.

 

[celluloid]

Classic strawman.

Anyways, data over the next year will show whatever it will show. I have an opinion a certain way and you have an opinion a different way. We'll see what happens.

You should have identified the strawman fallacy. If you are going to make such a claim you should be able to circle it on the paper. My context of growth was always from the recent year trends to now. Less films and still attendance growth. Less films, and still income growth. Plenty of studios love what happened this year.

You're no Nostradamus. Give up on guessing the future. Every single one of your box office predictions this year that I can recall was wrong.

Imagine shouting strawman and then disagreeing on the side that provides evidence. It is a fact that the box office made more money than previous year. Not really something to just have an opinion on.

 

[Disney Irish]

You should have identified the strawman fallacy. If you are going to make such a claim you should be able to circle it on the paper. My context of growth was always from the recent year trends to now. Less films and still attendance growth. Less films, and still income growth. Plenty of studios love what happened this year.

You're no Nostradamus. Give up on guessing the future. Every single one of your box office predictions this year that I can recall was wrong.

Imagine shouting strawman and then disagreeing on the side that provides evidence. It is a fact that the box office made more money than previous year. Not really something to just have an opinion on.

I have no issue saying I'm wrong in my individual movie predictions this year. Yes I was incorrect. But I haven't provided a prediction on the future of the box office, you are.

But what I can certainly do is read a trend line, such as the one that shows that ticket sales have been going down since its heights in 2002 even in 2018 and 2019 -

This shows that the audience is shrinking, not growing. And that trend doesn't appear to be changing. Now maybe it does in the future and we get a spike in the number of tickets sold. But unless that happens, the number of tickets sold is only going to continue to go down. And if that continues to happen, it really doesn't matter how many movies are released into the market, there won't be enough tickets sold for that ROI that you keep talking about.

 

[DKampy]

Netflix and Apple want in on this too and show signs of expanding their offerings.

Yes, Apple has announced they will be carving out billions for theatrical, but Netflix has said the opposite… they are concentrating on streaming only… the only movies they put into theaters is those making an awards play… and they usually don’t expand wide… just enough theaters for awards consideration… I think this is a mistake… as I believe for this new distribution to work streaming and Theaters need to figure out how to compliment each other… even Glass Onion was only in theaters for one week… which opened well and I believe left money on the table… Every other studio realize this and is experimenting with how this can work

 

[celluloid]

Yes, Apple has announced they will be carving out billions for theatrical, but Netflix has said the opposite… they are concentrating on streaming only… the only movies they put into theaters is those making an awards play… and they usually don’t expand wide… just enough theaters for awards consideration… I think this is a mistake… as I believe for this new distribution to work streaming and Theaters need to figure out how to compliment each other… even Glass Onion was only in theaters for one week… which opened well and I believe left money on the table… Every other studio realize this and is experimenting with how this can work

Yes, surely a mistake for Netflix on that. Glass Onion left a lot on the table and Netflix paid a lot for Knives Out.

 

[TalkingHead]

Netflix doesn’t see it that way. They obviously see the theatrical business being at odds with their streaming emphasis. As a rule they don’t do wide releases; Glass Onion was their last I think. Not good for theater chains but at least Netflix knows their business model. Same can’t be said for Disney.