Advisable Joseph
Well-Known Member
Not necessarily, if it helps Disney+ make money, and it provides more material for parks and toys.
You would practically have to audit the company to be sure, however, with "Hollywood accounting."
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
You would practically have to audit the company to be sure, however, with "Hollywood accounting."
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
You mean that stuff above?
Again…there really isn’t a discernible question in there…
“How do you not do checkboxes?”
I don’t think that’s a huge stretch…and it’s ugly…but they’re tanking their movies…so not an easy situation.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Physical sales are down like 90%? From their height…
It’s also what Netflix abandoned
They have to navigate the streaming world…they just aren’t doing it amazingly well.
Maybe there’s no money in that well?
That more than anything explains why they are getting little to no Wall Street Confidence.
Sometimes the obvious answer is the answer
orky8
Well-Known Member
I never in any way in my posts, expressed anger. You seem to be projecting. All I said was that I had zero desire to go the theaters to see The Marvels. Based on box office performance, I don't seem to be alone. Disney needs to figure out why its movies aren't connecting or drawing audiences. I'm not mad at the movie - I have literally no feelings about it. And people don't trek to the theaters to see something they couldn't care less about.
And, since you quoted me, the dialogue I was engaged in was simply to point out that the quick release to D+ isn't, in my opinion, a driving factor to Disney's recent box office failures, as whether I wait 3 months or 3 years to see The Marvels on D+ made no difference in my calculation not to see it in the theater.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I think Marvel is an easy answer. They over-flooded the market with that content and made it ‘ok’ to pick and choose what to watch. Or in many cases simply ignore it altogether.
Yes, the end of Avenegers had something to do with it. But wandavision and Loki remained popular, Shang Chi launched a popular character, doctor strange was still deemed must see. But somewhere along the road of The Falcon/Winter Soldier, Moon Knight, Ms Marvel, she Hulk, Secret Invasion the audience tuned out and was not punished for doing so, particularly since the continuity has been rapidly expanding and losing direction.
So while The Marvels is, in my opinion, a more enjoyable movie than the original… there is about zero pressure to see it. Unlike the original that nearly everyone was forced to see because it was sold as a needed watch for Endgame.
Sold another way, Marvel movies there was pressure to see it early. Now there’s hardly pressure to see them at all. The we can wait for home releases I think is a distinct animated phenomenon. Mario and Spider-Man were very misleading because those are large events… but Illumination’s Migration also looks like it will collapse.
So our original WDAS Princess Musical, original Illuminations animal film, original dream works picture and to a lesser extent original (very good) Pixar film failed upfront to attract opening weekend audiences. This is a worrying problem for the animated industry.
All roads lead to Frozen 7 and Despicable Me 12 or ‘Mattel toy-line, the movie’.
DisneyHead123
Well-Known Member
My two cents on how Disney will eventually need to proceed, because this is the only thing that makes financial sense to me:
- They will need about three tiers of D+. A free tier (or a return to a cable channel), a paid subscription tier, and a premium content tier. Free because I think they are losing this generation of kids without something that's more universally available. When I would ask kids what their favorite shows are, a few years ago I used to hear "Big City Greens" a lot. Since the Disney Channel is no more, I never hear that answer. Even mentions of Bluey have fallen quite a bit. Kids seem to be watching Naruto, Mr. Beast, and playing endless Roblox at this point. There are so many more young immigrant families just starting out in the US these days, and many don't have these paid subscription services. If some large percentage of kids never see a show, that stops buzz about the show in its tracks. Kids want to watch what other kids are watching.
- They need to get some cheap-but-fun content on the paid subscription tier. Iger has said they are going to reduce offerings further to focus on quality, not quantity - that might be something he said just for PR purposes to justify the cuts being made, but that just makes no sense to me. Subscription rates are already down for D+, why would people subscribe to access even less content? There's nothing wrong with fun, sweet, but "nothing that's gonna blow your mind here" programming. I've watched The Great Christmas Light Fight more than any of their other content this month. I'd love one of those baking competitions with nothing but Disney themed food, heck, I'd watch a home makeover show where they created Disney themed rooms as well. I don't recall the kid's show from The Disney Channel in my youth seeming like they were super-high quality in terms of production, and we loved them.
- I think they need to send theater releases to premium access for quite some time. I also think they need to experiment with new movie formats for this generation of kids. I think there will always be a place for classic storytelling - the classic hero's journey arc with drama and emotion and maybe musical numbers. But I also think that kids want movies that are goofy, silly, fast-paced, and, let's be honest, maybe eye roll worthy to the adults who take them (but as a parent, I can say that if a movie will get my kid to sit still and stop bouncing off the walls for 90 minutes, I will still happily take him while rolling my eyes and enjoying 90 minutes of chilling out eating popcorn.) That has probably always been a tendency with kids but for this generation, growing up with bite-sized chunks of action on Youtube shows, I think it applies even more.
- They will need about three tiers of D+. A free tier (or a return to a cable channel), a paid subscription tier, and a premium content tier. Free because I think they are losing this generation of kids without something that's more universally available. When I would ask kids what their favorite shows are, a few years ago I used to hear "Big City Greens" a lot. Since the Disney Channel is no more, I never hear that answer. Even mentions of Bluey have fallen quite a bit. Kids seem to be watching Naruto, Mr. Beast, and playing endless Roblox at this point. There are so many more young immigrant families just starting out in the US these days, and many don't have these paid subscription services. If some large percentage of kids never see a show, that stops buzz about the show in its tracks. Kids want to watch what other kids are watching.
- They need to get some cheap-but-fun content on the paid subscription tier. Iger has said they are going to reduce offerings further to focus on quality, not quantity - that might be something he said just for PR purposes to justify the cuts being made, but that just makes no sense to me. Subscription rates are already down for D+, why would people subscribe to access even less content? There's nothing wrong with fun, sweet, but "nothing that's gonna blow your mind here" programming. I've watched The Great Christmas Light Fight more than any of their other content this month. I'd love one of those baking competitions with nothing but Disney themed food, heck, I'd watch a home makeover show where they created Disney themed rooms as well. I don't recall the kid's show from The Disney Channel in my youth seeming like they were super-high quality in terms of production, and we loved them.
- I think they need to send theater releases to premium access for quite some time. I also think they need to experiment with new movie formats for this generation of kids. I think there will always be a place for classic storytelling - the classic hero's journey arc with drama and emotion and maybe musical numbers. But I also think that kids want movies that are goofy, silly, fast-paced, and, let's be honest, maybe eye roll worthy to the adults who take them (but as a parent, I can say that if a movie will get my kid to sit still and stop bouncing off the walls for 90 minutes, I will still happily take him while rolling my eyes and enjoying 90 minutes of chilling out eating popcorn.) That has probably always been a tendency with kids but for this generation, growing up with bite-sized chunks of action on Youtube shows, I think it applies even more.
Migration is not out yet. What original Illumination film failed to attract opening audiences? I know one site had low opening predictions, but that is it.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Here’s the problem with extending the theatrical window/D+ window. Studios have finite marketing budget, and when a film does poorly even less to market the film on digital or home video. So, that’s why you see films pop up quickly to purchase on digital and the like, to take advantage of the film remaining in the public consciousness. They generally only pull this lever once they’ve tapped out on their theatrical returns. So this problem really becomes chronic and exacerbated when you have movie after movie fail to land in theaters, and the studios want to maximize their marketing spend as much as possible.
Left to their own devices, I think they’d prefer to go the Elemental route. But, who is going to still rush out to buy (or remember) Wish or Marvels come April or May or June?
Left to their own devices, I think they’d prefer to go the Elemental route. But, who is going to still rush out to buy (or remember) Wish or Marvels come April or May or June?
el_super
Well-Known Member
In five to ten years, the number of people with DVD players will be ... minimal. Selling DVDs is not really an option.
The industry was already changing. Nothing was going to stop the way that entertainment was being devalued by the internet. It happened with music sharing first (in the 1990s) and started to move toward movies with Netflix. The scale of content, the ease of distribution, the quality of home theater setups... all of it was working against the old Disney system.
It's silly to suggest they could have just kept doing the same thing they were doing in the 1990s.
Yes and no. I do think we are seeing the (rather quick) transition to home streaming being the predominant form of movie distribution. The question is going to be one of making sure animation production budgets are more in-line with their value on streaming services. The good news is, animation is one of the easiest things to scale down to smaller budgets.
I don't think in-person movie theaters are going to ever reach the highs they did pre-pandemic. The pandemic didn't kill them off entirely, but the next couple years of stalled productions and empty houses is going to put a huge strain on the industry and reinforce the idea for many people that the best experience is at home.
Disney isn't the only studio grappling with what to do and how to approach this. Some studios will have a better chance to pivot toward cheaper movies that are more targeted to the last remaining demographics still going to theaters. For Disney or Fox though, it's probably not worth trying to re-engineer your production to target a specific demographic when the loss of content next year could end up seeing a lot of theaters close.
By the time Disney figured out what the in-person audience wanted, it would be too late.
el_super
Well-Known Member
Just how dire do things look for MIGRATION? We’re comparing it to WISH, which opened to a three-day of $20M, and PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH, last year’s big animated release. That film pocketed $56M through New Year’s Eve but ran well into 2023, eventually legging out a $186M in total.
Looking at awareness, MIGRATION sits at 27%. That’s well below the two comps. It’s worth noting that PUSS (brown) is part of a larger franchise, so we would expect it to track at a higher level. But, it is surprising to see MIGRATION (dark yellow) sit below WISH (light yellow).
Original Animated Films Are Struggling. Will MIGRATION Be The Next To Stumble? - The Quorum
In the early days of the pandemic, when the studios shifted their theatrical releases to PVOD and streaming services, we all knew there was a chance that behaviors would change forever. The fear was that audiences would grow used to seeing theatrical-quality films at home and, possibly, never...
thequorum.com
Just how dire do things look for MIGRATION? We’re comparing it to WISH, which opened to a three-day of $20M, and PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH, last year’s big animated release. That film pocketed $56M through New Year’s Eve but ran well into 2023, eventually legging out a $186M in total.Looking at awareness, MIGRATION sits at 27%. That’s well below the two comps. It’s worth noting that PUSS (brown) is part of a larger franchise, so we would expect it to track at a higher level. But, it is surprising to see MIGRATION (dark yellow) sit below WISH (light yellow).Original Animated Films Are Struggling. Will MIGRATION Be The Next To Stumble? - The Quorum
In the early days of the pandemic, when the studios shifted their theatrical releases to PVOD and streaming services, we all knew there was a chance that behaviors would change forever. The fear was that audiences would grow used to seeing theatrical-quality films at home and, possibly, never...
Possibly. But again, it is not out yet.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
I enjoyed the trailer, which I found much stronger than that for Wish. If it does indeed do badly, I think some of the Disney-centric analysis that has been offered here will have to be revisited.Just how dire do things look for MIGRATION? We’re comparing it to WISH, which opened to a three-day of $20M, and PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH, last year’s big animated release. That film pocketed $56M through New Year’s Eve but ran well into 2023, eventually legging out a $186M in total.Looking at awareness, MIGRATION sits at 27%. That’s well below the two comps. It’s worth noting that PUSS (brown) is part of a larger franchise, so we would expect it to track at a higher level. But, it is surprising to see MIGRATION (dark yellow) sit below WISH (light yellow).Original Animated Films Are Struggling. Will MIGRATION Be The Next To Stumble? - The Quorum
In the early days of the pandemic, when the studios shifted their theatrical releases to PVOD and streaming services, we all knew there was a chance that behaviors would change forever. The fear was that audiences would grow used to seeing theatrical-quality films at home and, possibly, never...
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
This is what they should have done to begin with instead of their strategy of locking in customers with low rates and no ads and hope they put up with higher prices and ads down the line....that was always a dubious strategy based on the assumption of brand loyalty more than anything else (maybe a result of the 2019 box office high the company had?)
They desperately need more of this, and I have no idea why they don't beyond the franchise focus blinding them to other opportunities. The same goes for uploading more of the older content they've already made. People are still asking for House of Mouse and the Aladdin TV series to be on the platform and those requests just seem to be ignored.
DisneyHead123
Well-Known Member
Either way… whatever the theater future holds, my point was mostly that they need a premium access tier on D+.
CinematicFusion
Well-Known Member
Link:
He might be on to something here.
CinematicFusion
Well-Known Member
This guy almost has 1 million subscribers…. And he isn’t the only one on YouTube crushing Disney.
Disney is everything that is wrong with Hollywood
Disney is everything that is wrong with Hollywood
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
The popularity and reach of a YouTube channel (or of any outlet, traditional or otherwise) are no indication of its accuracy or quality.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
Maybe.
I’m not sure the problem is tiers, I think it’s much more basic/fundamental.
The problem is that at a certain point, especially the classic stuff could easily be pirated. How many people in totality watch Disney movies continuously like a TV series or sporting event. Sure there are likely some but not enough to matter. This forum is likely not representative of the media consuming populace as a whole.
Media companies need to strike the right balance between profitability and ease of use for the customer. And if it gets too high or too difficult to bother with? Or perhaps too restrictive?
In a way this has all happened before: love them or hate them Apple dragged in some cases, convinced in others the record companies to give up their traditional sales model of CDs. They pitched a fit over online file sharing and wanted it shut down completely. There is no universe in which that was ever going to happen. Apple showed them if it’s easy and not too expensive people will pay for music.
It becomes successful after all the other initiatives from every company under the sun failed and failed miserably and then they started whining about “they aren’t making money off the players!” (This actually happened: https://macdailynews.com/2005/10/05/warners_middlebronfman_we_sell_our_songs_through_ipods/
Flash forward to now. Each company wants to control their own end point and we have a fragmented model. Just like pre-iTunes/ Music store. Only problem is now there is no one like Steve Jobs to herd all the cats.
What we’re going to get instead is a continuing mess of various services scattered across multiple companies for the foreseeable future.
Fun times.
ETA: I’m not saying competition is bad here just that it’s really a fragmented space right now.
el_super
Well-Known Member
Putting a wall around some of the content in order to charge more won't help with the overall devaluing of entertainment. If it comes down to paying $30+ bucks to watch a premium access movie on Disney+, or spending your time watching free (with ads) content on YouTube, people will pick YouTube.
I think the smarter thing to do is what they have been doing: slowly increasing the prices of Disney+.