Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[CinematicFusion]

The popularity and reach of a YouTube channel (or of any outlet, traditional or otherwise) are no indication of its accuracy or quality.

The box office is though… correlation?

 

[DisneyHead123]

Maybe.

I’m not sure the problem is tiers, I think it’s much more basic/fundamental.

The problem is that at a certain point, especially the classic stuff could easily be pirated. How many people in totality watch Disney movies continuously like a TV series or sporting event. Sure there are likely some but not enough to matter. This forum is likely not representative of the media consuming populace as a whole.

Media companies need to strike the right balance between profitability and ease of use for the customer. And if it gets too high or too difficult to bother with? Or perhaps too restrictive?

In a way this has all happened before: love them or hate them Apple dragged in some cases, convinced in others the record companies to give up their traditional sales model of CDs. They pitched a fit over online file sharing and wanted it shut down completely. There is no universe in which that was ever going to happen. Apple showed them if it’s easy and not too expensive people will pay for music.

It becomes successful after all the other initiatives from every company under the sun failed and failed miserably and then they started whining about “they aren’t making money off the players!” (This actually happened: https://macdailynews.com/2005/10/05/warners_middlebronfman_we_sell_our_songs_through_ipods/

Flash forward to now. Each company wants to control their own end point and we have a fragmented model. Just like pre-iTunes/ Music store. Only problem is now there is no one like Steve Jobs to herd all the cats.

What we’re going to get instead is a continuing mess of various services scattered across multiple companies for the foreseeable future.

Fun times.

ETA: I’m not saying competition is bad here just that it’s really a fragmented space right now.

I've said before, I think the music industry is fundamentally different because production there happens with individual artists who can, in theory at least, cover all of their own production costs. Sure, having millions from a studio helps a ton, but when push comes to shove, anyone with instruments or the proper technology can write and record a song. This really isn't the case with movies and tv shows.

I do think if there was a streaming equivalent to cable, that would be ideal for the consumer of course. And that may be another option down the road - but that will be a lot of seismic shifts from now, if it happens. In the short term I still think D+ will have to move to premier access and lower cost content for some shows to make a profit.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Putting a wall around some of the content in order to charge more won't help with the overall devaluing of entertainment. If it comes down to paying $30+ bucks to watch a premium access movie on Disney+, or spending your time watching free (with ads) content on YouTube, people will pick YouTube.

I think the smarter thing to do is what they have been doing: slowly increasing the prices of Disney+.

That could be true, but if that's the case, I think you're basically just saying Disney is doomed unless they move to a YouTube-esque model. You're putting a wall around the content either way - in one instance you're just banking on the idea that people prefer subscriptions over a la carte pricing.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

There's nothing wrong with fun, sweet, but "nothing that's gonna blow your mind here" programming. I've watched The Great Christmas Light Fight more than any of their other content this month. I'd love one of those baking competitions with nothing but Disney themed food, heck, I'd watch a home makeover show where they created Disney themed rooms as well. I don't recall the kid's show from The Disney Channel in my youth seeming like they were super-high quality in terms of production, and we loved them.

I think this is a huge missed opportunity also, Disney has so much history they could be capitalizing on (cheaply) and they don’t.

The archives show is still one of my favorite D+ series, go into the warehouses and show us all the cool old stuff, go into the warehouses and show us how you restore stuff, go into the warehouses and show us how you make things like Christmas decorations. They aren’t going to get hundreds of millions of views but they’ll keep the hardcore Disney fans happy and subscribed, and they’ll do it cheaply.

 

[DKampy]

Possibly. But again, it is not out yet.

That never stopped people from proclaiming a Disney film was going to flop months before it was released

 

[celluloid]

That never stopped people from proclaiming a Disney film was going to flop months before it was released

Which is fine you can predict all you want, my thing was this was listed as past tense.

Someone earlier said this year's Illumination film "Failed upfront to attract audiences."

Predicting is fine, but we don't know that yet.


Also, I do not remember anyone saying Wish would flop. I remember some saying it would not reach the hype of other Disney Animated films.

 

[DKampy]

Which is fine you can predict all you want, my thing was this was listed as past tense.

I am not predicting anything for any studio… as someone who likes the theater going experience I hope all studios can find success

 

[DisneyHead123]

This does seem like kind of a strange choice to me. Everyone just watched these movies as many times as they wanted to watch them at home - they wouldn't be a prime choice for theater viewing. If it were an old movie like Fantasia, or even a classic cartoon reel that my kiddo might like but hasn't seen on D+, I'd consider it... especially if there was some kind of cool tie-in like a Steamboat Willie popcorn bucket or Fantasia candy or some such thing.

 

[celluloid]

I am not predicting anything for any studio… as someone who likes the theater going experience I hope all studios can find success

Irrelevant to the point. We don't have good enough metrics or opening weekend to say it did not attract opening weekend audiences yet.

 

[flynnibus]

Here’s the problem with extending the theatrical window/D+ window. Studios have finite marketing budget, and when a film does poorly even less to market the film on digital or home video. So, that’s why you see films pop up quickly to purchase on digital and the like, to take advantage of the film remaining in the public consciousness. They generally only pull this lever once they’ve tapped out on their theatrical returns. So this problem really becomes chronic and exacerbated when you have movie after movie fail to land in theaters, and the studios want to maximize their marketing spend as much as possible.

Left to their own devices, I think they’d prefer to go the Elemental route. But, who is going to still rush out to buy (or remember) Wish or Marvels come April or May or June?

Simple... don't spend money in expensive TV/print etc to try to promote streaming releases. Pump attention into the cheap ads and word of mouth promotion (feed the websites, etc). Instead of spending $5 million on a TV spot... spend $1million hiring a dozen plus people to push awareness of your content into the zeitgeist.

I know what you are saying about trying to ride on the tails of awareness of the theatrical release.. but I think all that is old thought and not working. People are going to turn on a sub based on word of mouth.. not 'now see it at home' ad. Spend some of that money on streaming-exclusive content. Spend some of that money on making the 'suggested content' features of your streaming app worth something. Run an exciting youtube channel with your actors doing exclusive content to help launch your streaming release.

TLDR - I think they need to spend smarter and in different places period - not think their theatrical marketing window is the sacred cow that will save them.

 

[celluloid]

This does seem like kind of a strange choice to me. Everyone just watched these movies as many times as they wanted to watch them at home - they wouldn't be a prime choice for theater viewing. If it were an old movie like Fantasia, or even a classic cartoon reel that my kiddo might like but hasn't seen on D+, I'd consider it... especially if there was some kind of cool tie-in like a Steamboat Willie popcorn bucket or Fantasia candy or some such thing.

This and it is not like they are beloved recent re-releases either.

Writer's/SAG strike filler, and clearly Disney is moving away from theatrical releases so much they want to release the lesser appreciated Pixar films to theaters!/sarcasm

 

[DisneyHead123]

I think this is a huge missed opportunity also, Disney has so much history they could be capitalizing on (cheaply) and they don’t.

The archives show is still one of my favorite D+ series, go into the warehouses and show us all the cool old stuff, go into the warehouses and show us how you restore stuff, go into the warehouses and show us how you make things like Christmas decorations. They aren’t going to get hundreds of millions of views but they’ll keep the hardcore Disney fans happy and subscribed, and they’ll do it cheaply.

They could also practically pay for themselves in free advertising. A documentary on the parks, or a reality show where they make someone's Disney wish come true, could feature the parks / merchandise / clothing lines - anything they want really.

 

[Disney Irish]

What we’re going to get instead is a continuing mess of various services scattered across multiple companies for the foreseeable future.

I do think if there was a streaming equivalent to cable, that would be ideal for the consumer of course. And that may be another option down the road - but that will be a lot of seismic shifts from now, if it happens. In the short term I still think D+ will have to move to premier access and lower cost content for some shows to make a profit.

Except the era of paying for individual streamers is starting to come to an end. And the era of bundled streamers is starting to take shape. This is something I've long predicted, there will be options in the future to bundle the streamers together just like you did previously with cable. And its starting to happen.

Verizon Offers $10 Bundle For Netflix And Max: Here Are All The Bundle Deals Currently Available

From competitors to partners: Netflix and Max announce first-ever bundle for Verizon myPlan customers.

www.forbes.com

 

[DisneyHead123]

Except the era of paying for individual streamers is starting to come to an end. And the era of bundled streamers is starting to take shape. This is something I've long predicted, there will be options in the future to bundle the streamers together just like you did previously with cable. And its starting to happen.

Verizon Offers $10 Bundle For Netflix And Max: Here Are All The Bundle Deals Currently Available

From competitors to partners: Netflix and Max announce first-ever bundle for Verizon myPlan customers.

www.forbes.com

I think this could potentially be a thing... but as with all things streaming, profitability is still such a huge factor. Presumably each individual service would be lowering their profit per subscription at a time when they're already losing money on streaming. So this only works if bundles result in a big uptick in subscribers, big enough to overcome that loss of revenue. Unless there's another source of earnings that I'm missing here - maybe Verizon is covering a significant chunk of the costs?

Again, I wouldn't rule it out. But my guess is that this fizzles for now, because it comes at a time when streamers really can't afford to lower their rates. I think mergers will come when you have 2-3 leaders of the streaming pack who eventually buy up the services that look promising but are struggling.

 

[LittleBuford]

The box office is though… correlation?

I don’t understand. No, I don’t think there is a neat correlation between a film’s box-office success and its quality. Often, yes, but certainly not always.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think this could potentially be a thing... but as with all things streaming, profitability is still such a huge factor. Presumably each individual service would be lowering their profit per subscription at a time when they're already losing money on streaming. So this only works if bundles result in a big uptick in subscribers, big enough to overcome that loss of revenue. Unless there's another source of earnings that I'm missing here - maybe Verizon is covering a significant chunk of the costs?

Again, I wouldn't rule it out. But my guess is that this fizzles for now, because it comes at a time when streamers really can't afford to lower their rates. I think mergers will come when you have 2-3 leaders of the streaming pack who eventually buy up the services that look promising but are struggling.

This is really going to become a thing. This is similar to the deal Disney just made with Charter.

The new subs would be sold to the distributor at a discounted price for the ad tiers. So the streamers get new subs plus revenue from the ads. So I don't see where there is a loss in revenue here as any "loss" from the sub fee is made up by the ad revenue.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

You mean that stuff above?

Again…there really isn’t a discernible question in there…

“How do you not do checkboxes?”


I don’t think that’s a huge stretch…and it’s ugly…but they’re tanking their movies…so not an easy situation.

Fail.

Why is it any different to write a white character vs. a non-white character when it comes to creativity or storytelling?

 

[Willmark]

Except the era of paying for individual streamers is starting to come to an end. And the era of bundled streamers is starting to take shape. This is something I've long predicted, there will be options in the future to bundle the streamers together just like you did previously with cable. And its starting to happen.

Verizon Offers $10 Bundle For Netflix And Max: Here Are All The Bundle Deals Currently Available

From competitors to partners: Netflix and Max announce first-ever bundle for Verizon myPlan customers.

www.forbes.com

So basically Cable TV.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This does seem like kind of a strange choice to me. Everyone just watched these movies as many times as they wanted to watch them at home - they wouldn't be a prime choice for theater viewing. If it were an old movie like Fantasia, or even a classic cartoon reel that my kiddo might like but hasn't seen on D+, I'd consider it... especially if there was some kind of cool tie-in like a Steamboat Willie popcorn bucket or Fantasia candy or some such thing.

I wouldn’t pick these movies either but maybe they are hoping kids will want to see them.

If it were my decision I’d take advantage of the 100th anniversary and pick 52 of the animated classics and release them in order, start with Snow White, a week later release Pinocchio, a week later release Dumbo, etc. By the end of the first month you’d be replacing Snow with something else. They could have a “new movie” in theaters every week of the year. None of them will be box office hits but it would be a nice anniversary treat and I think they’d have as much appeal as any individual movie they pick.

Now that movies are distributed digitally the costs would be negligible.

 

[Disney Irish]

So basically Cable TV.

Yeah if you want to look at it that way.

I've long said that if legacy cable providers like Charter wanted to compete in the new streaming world they'd find a way to bundle streamers together for a low price. And that appears to be what is starting to happen. Its started with Hulu and Amazon, and now the legacy companies are getting in on it.

The era of bundled streamers is starting to be upon us. This is why I know that streaming isn't going anywhere and will become profitable in short order.