Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[_caleb]

Not really the question. The question is what should in your opinion (and others) and do with Disney movies to make them profitable?

Plenty of people on one “side” has said what they should do, certainly the other “side” must have ideas.

I've offered my thoughts on this across multiple threads, but the short answer is: I think Disney is doing what needs to be done: going all-in on Direct-to-Consumer.

If each of D+'s 156.8M subscriptions were to bring in $10/mo., that'd be $19B/yr. This is their new business: they develop content that will add and keep subscribers. They can always do short-window theatrical releases to help offset the costs of development, but keep the focus on streaming. The real key to profitability will be when they then add in new revenue streams that leverage the technology of the platform.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I've offered my thoughts on this across multiple threads, but the short answer is: I think Disney is doing what needs to be done: going all-in on Direct-to-Consumer.

If each of D+'s 156.8M subscriptions were to bring in $10/mo., that'd be $19B/yr. This is their new business: they develop content that will add and keep subscribers. They can always do short-window theatrical releases to help offset the costs of development, but keep the focus on streaming. The real key to profitability will be when they then add in new revenue streams that leverage the technology of the platform.

The problem is they’re spending $25 billion on content in 2024, which is down from $27 billion this year, which was also down from $30 billion in 2022.

They’re getting closer to the break even point but even with the astronomical income of $19 billion a year on D+, plus ESPN+, plus Hulu they’re still losing money on streaming.

Disney+ Tops 150 Million Subscribers, Streaming Loss Narrows to $387 Million

Disney reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2023 earnings Wednesday, revealing Disney+ now totals 150.2 million streaming subscriptions

variety.com

ETA that I think streaming will be an integral part of their future business, I just think they need theaters also, they can’t depend on streaming alone for their film business.

 

[_caleb]

I’m not suggesting they remake them, I’m saying if they made original movies like those today they’d be just as successful as they were when they were released.

The audience of the 70s, 80s, and 90s is the same as the audience of today, come up with a great story (preferably original) and people will pay to see it. Harry Potter is the best recent example (although even that’s a decade old now), give people a great story and they’ll show up.

I know you see it as this straightforward, but audiences really are SO different in terms of how they consume entertainment content, how they pay for that content, and what sorts of content resonates with them.

So what audiences consider to be a "great story," now varies so greatly that pleasing many audiences (enough to generate huge box office revenues) is increasingly difficult. Yes, there are still big hits, and there will be more. But the future of the business isn't in cinemas.

Don't believe me? Ask yourself why else every major movie studio would be working so hard to get into streaming!

 

[_caleb]

The problem is they’re spending $25 billion on content in 2024, which is down from $27 billion this year, which was also down from $30 billion in 2022.

They’re getting closer to the break even point but even with the astronomical income of $19 billion a year on D+, plus ESPN+, plus Hulu they’re still losing money on streaming.

Disney+ Tops 150 Million Subscribers, Streaming Loss Narrows to $387 Million

Disney reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2023 earnings Wednesday, revealing Disney+ now totals 150.2 million streaming subscriptions

variety.com

ETA that I think streaming will be an integral part of their future business, I just think they need theaters also, they can’t depend on streaming alone for their film business.

Yes, costs will be a huge problem if they stay at the current levels. But Disney hasn't been hedging their bets with their pivot to streaming. They're spending big to try to ensure success. Can you imagine how it would affect public perception of D+ if Disney had started with Disney channel content and production quality? That would have saved them a lot of money, but no way they'd have gotten more subscribers than Netflix.

Box office will continue to be a key component, just not the primary one. In addition to being infinitely scalable, DTC is pandemic proof, keeps Disney from having to share any money with theaters, and moves the competition from being a week-by-week box office battle and moves it to overall perceived value of streaming libraries.

 

[_caleb]

The one concrete suggestion is creating a more financially diverse slate of films, and both sides agree on that. It won’t be nearly enough to right the ship, however.

I agree. I think streaming sets them up for that.

The line between "film" and "series" continues to blur, and I think Disney can/should lean into that to help with differentiation, like they had with Marvel in the ABC series Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. and Agent Carter. Those were way cheaper than tentpole Marvel films, but still fun content that (ultimately) was disconnected from the broader MCU. On D+, a great example was Werewolf by Night.

Also, if they'd lean into genre differentiation, they could probably get away with spending a lot less. Romantic comedies, dramas, buddy cop movies, road trip movies, etc.–even set in the Marvel/Star Wars/Percy Jackson/etc. universes would probably all cost less than mega-action movies while providing new and interesting content that would attract and keep subscribers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Do they even have a November, 2024 animated release

It takes about 6 years to make one…like a C ticket in wdw these days …
So that’s why bombing movies is a bigger problem that we can’t underestimate.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The problem is they’re spending $25 billion on content in 2024, which is down from $27 billion this year, which was also down from $30 billion in 2022.

They’re getting closer to the break even point but even with the astronomical income of $19 billion a year on D+, plus ESPN+, plus Hulu they’re still losing money on streaming.

Disney+ Tops 150 Million Subscribers, Streaming Loss Narrows to $387 Million

Disney reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2023 earnings Wednesday, revealing Disney+ now totals 150.2 million streaming subscriptions

variety.com

ETA that I think streaming will be an integral part of their future business, I just think they need theaters also, they can’t depend on streaming alone for their film business.

If they don’t spend…they’ll start losing subs and the ad money they have promised

Again…nobody wants Peter Pan for $49.99 a month

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree. I think streaming sets them up for that.

The line between "film" and "series" continues to blur, and I think Disney can/should lean into that to help with differentiation, like they had with Marvel in the ABC series Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. and Agent Carter. Those were way cheaper than tentpole Marvel films, but still fun content that (ultimately) was disconnected from the broader MCU. On D+, a great example was Werewolf by Night.

Also, if they'd lean into genre differentiation, they could probably get away with spending a lot less. Romantic comedies, dramas, buddy cop movies, road trip movies, etc.–even set in the Marvel/Star Wars/Percy Jackson/etc. universes would probably all cost less than mega-action movies while providing new and interesting content that would attract and keep subscribers.

Netflix learned you have to flood with content to turn the corner


Let’s spin the wheel and see how it goes after Bob quits….errr…”retires” again, shall we?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Disney doesn't need to reprogram their viewers, they need to reconnect with their viewers.

You’re mad at a movie you haven’t seen. Explain.

You both do understand what they’re doing is failing, right?

And it’s not “lose now to win later”…they’re actually losing progress because their audience is defecting and not being replaced as they undoubtedly assumed…

And it looks so cheap/cynical…I’ve stated my opinion on the little mermaid hoax…
I think it’s DISNEY that played the roles of exploiter in that scenario…for money and for cheap props…

And it blew up like Bruce Willis had drilled and planted a nuke inside of it…

Not one answer to one question or point.

 

[CinematicFusion]

If they don’t spend…they’ll start losing subs and the ad money they have promised

Again…nobody wants Peter Pan for $49.99 a month

Especially not Pan and Wendy, that was horrible.

 

[Willmark]

I've offered my thoughts on this across multiple threads, but the short answer is: I think Disney is doing what needs to be done: going all-in on Direct-to-Consumer.

If each of D+'s 156.8M subscriptions were to bring in $10/mo., that'd be $19B/yr. This is their new business: they develop content that will add and keep subscribers. They can always do short-window theatrical releases to help offset the costs of development, but keep the focus on streaming. The real key to profitability will be when they then add in new revenue streams that leverage the technology of the platform.

What do you envision with this?

 

[TsWade2]

I’m hoping that Wish will be popular on DisneyPlus, but why bother? Disney will treat Wish as an embarassment as The Black Cauldron.

 

[CinematicFusion]

I’m hoping that Wish will be popular on DisneyPlus, but why bother? Disney will treat Wish as an embarassment as The Black Cauldron.

I had high hopes for Wish buts not in the same category as Encanto, Moana but it will work on Disney plus.

Black Cauldron was better than Wish.
Lead character of wish was bland. I mean her biggest weakness is she cared too much? Come on.

Better story arc would have been the villain of wish. Focus more on his journey, cutting out his childhood was a huge mistake.

 

[TsWade2]

I had high hopes for Wish buts not in the same category as Encanto, Moana but it will work on Disney plus.

Black Cauldron was better than Wish.
Lead character of wish was bland. I mean her biggest weakness is she cared too much? Come on.

Better story arc would have been the villain of wish. Focus more on his journey, cutting out his childhood was a huge mistake.

Heh!, fair enough.

 

[CinematicFusion]

Inside out 2 and Frozen 3, Toy Story 5 should do well for Disney.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’re mad at a movie you haven’t seen. Explain.

Not one answer to one question or point.

You mean the

“What planet are you on?!?” Phrased 3 different ways?

…the one where money rules/drives everything and ideals are conceptual…unfortunately

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Inside out 2 and Frozen 3, Toy Story 5 should do well for Disney.

But in no way solves their problem

Desperation from a weasel in his waning days

 

[CinematicFusion]

Heh!, fair enough.

To be fair with Wish, I do believe families didn’t run out to see it because
1. Horrible reviews
2. Expensive for a family of 4 to see a flick
3. Word of mouth didn’t help like it did elemental.
4. Disney parents with small kids will just wait for Disney plus release.

 

[CinematicFusion]

Inside out 2 and Frozen 3, Toy Story 5 should do well for Disney.

And God help Disney if those perform terribly

 

[TsWade2]

Inside out 2 and Frozen 3, Toy Story 5 should do well for Disney.

I suppose. But I miss original movies, but I guess Disney animation might not do original movies anymore.