Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Wendy Pleakley]

Maybe it will. And if it does, great. But don't you think that Disney is expecting more out of these films? Indy has a reported 300mil budget. Even if they are "paying themselves", that's a huge budget, especially when you factor in marketing. The downstream revenue is always a factor. But as I've said before, I just don't believe that Disney is ok with 200 to 300mil dollar films not hitting near the billion mark. If it was once, ok no worries. But we are way past once.

Of course they expected more. I mean, I said that in my post.

It's still useful to look at the big picture. People talk about lowering budgets but if a disappointment like Indy can still break even or not lose too much money, it lends support to continuing to produce blockbusters.

If they get skittish and make smaller movies, they may avoid some expensive mistakes but they also risk not having another Endgame or other massive hits.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Of course they expected more. I mean, I said that in my post.

It's still useful to look at the big picture. People talk about lowering budgets but if a disappointment like Indy can still break even or not lose too much money, it lends support to continuing to produce blockbusters.

If they get skittish and make smaller movies, they may avoid some expensive mistakes but they also risk not having another Endgame or other massive hits.

Also, smaller movies aren’t faring better than blockbusters, as this weekend’s Joyride demonstrates. Smaller films have much lower budgets, but they also have very little potential overseas or in ancillary outlets. They’re the type of theatrical release streaming has hurt the most, more so even then original animation. And mid-range Star vehicles, once Hollywoods bread and butter, have been almost entirely dead since the mid-2000s.

All of which is to say there really isn’t any obvious alternative to a tent pole strategy. The only kind of film that reliably makes a little bit of money is low-budget horror, and that’s not going to keep studios and cinemas afloat.

 

[erasure fan1]

It's still useful to look at the big picture. People talk about lowering budgets but if a disappointment like Indy can still break even or not lose too much money, it lends support to continuing to produce blockbusters.

I don't think anyone would say stop making blockbusters. But you need to be smarter with your spend. I think the real test is going to be snow white. It should have a reasonable budget, probably 140mil ish. If not, it says a lot about what they've learned.

If they get skittish and make smaller movies, they may avoid some expensive mistakes but they also risk not having another Endgame or other massive hits.

Very true. The thing that I see, is that some of these huge budget films, should have been smaller scale to begin with. Indy should be a blockbuster budget, but 300mil is still too high. It shouldn't be be 100mil higher than no way home.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A bomb Indiana Jones with Harrison ford in the “tribute reel” zone will not strengthen the franchise.

Franchise is just about dead.

It would be nice if we occasionally did not have to dig out of around here each time “the company” screws up?

Cause the pile is getting thicker and thicker

 

[Casper Gutman]

I don't think anyone would say stop making blockbusters. But you need to be smarter with your spend. I think the real test is going to be snow white. It should have a reasonable budget, probably 140mil ish. If not, it says a lot about what they've learned.

Very true. The thing that I see, is that some of these huge budget films, should have been smaller scale to begin with. Indy should be a blockbuster budget, but 300mil is still too high. It shouldn't be be 100mil higher than no way home.

How exactly can you be “smarter about what you spend?” Disney’s entire policy has been investing in reliable, proven IP, which from a business standpoint is as “smart” as it gets.

And Indy’s budget includes about 15 years of false starts and abortive projects. Spider’s doesn’t.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I don't think anyone would say stop making blockbusters. But you need to be smarter with your spend. I think the real test is going to be snow white. It should have a reasonable budget, probably 140mil ish. If not, it says a lot about what they've learned.

Very true. The thing that I see, is that some of these huge budget films, should have been smaller scale to begin with. Indy should be a blockbuster budget, but 300mil is still too high. It shouldn't be be 100mil higher than no way home.

Can any of us laymen really say with certainty what a movie can or should cost? It's easy to say that from the outside, especially with hindsight, but is it realistic?

Not that I disagree per se. I mentioned earlier Mission Impossible had a famous scene that was just Tom Cruise hanging in a room. Indy had memorable scenes like the fight around/on the airplane in Raiders or the Grail trials. Memorable scenes that had to have been cheaper than a big effects heavy set piece.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[erasure fan1]

How exactly can you be “smarter about what you spend?” Disney’s entire policy has been investing in reliable, proven IP, which from a business standpoint is as “smart” as it gets.

And Indy’s budget includes about 15 years of false starts and abortive projects. Spider’s doesn’t.

Well you can start with not screwing around for 11yrs after buying the franchise. So you're telling me that there is no way for them to lower the budgets? They are being as efficient as possible already? I guess Disney really is in trouble then.

 

[erasure fan1]

Can any of us laymen really say with certainty what a movie can or should cost? It's easy to say that from the outside, especially with hindsight, but is it realistic?

No, we can't, or at least I can't. But what I can do is look and see that a movie like Mario, Maverick, Jurassic world... all considerably less than the Disney counterparts. So I have to believe something in the way Disney works, is causing these budgets to be outrageous.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That’s funny cause that clown was predicting mermaid success for weeks with “cherry pick via optimism”…so it must be hard for him to say anything isn’t gonna make money.

He appears to be to studios as Scott gustin is to cleaning Josh d’amaro’s toilets.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Before I hit my Mandatory Cocktail Hour at 8pm, I'm going to do some math for everyone. In order for us to see just how far away from profitability the three summer tentpoles are, now that this weekend's box office numbers are in and before the mid-summer onslaught of Mission: Impossible, Barbie, and that other movie about making The Bomb.

Using the most optimistic scenario for Disney that they got 60% of domestic box office receipts and 40% of overseas box office receipts, and we'll give each movie a rock bottom ridiculously low marketing budget of just $100 Million apiece (Mermaid reportedly spent $140 Million on global marketing, but we'll go with only $100 to benefit Burbank as much as possible).

Mermaid ($350 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $274 Million box office take) = $76 Million Loss Thus Far
Elemental ($300 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $124 Million box office take) = $176 Million Loss Thus Far
Indy 5 ($400 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $123 Million box office take) = $277 Million Loss Thus Far

Total Summer Box Office Loss for Disney as of July 9th = $529 Million

Math can be fun. And what's a half a Billion lost among friends and lovers?

What's the most interesting about the domestic box office graph is the limp start and awful trajectory for Indy 5. Well below Mermaid, and likely to cost Disney a loss of at least a couple hundred million dollars now. Oof.

View attachment 729257

Movie Comparison: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) vs. The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. Elemental (2023)

Domestic box office comparison between Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) and The Little Mermaid (2023) and Elemental (2023)

www.the-numbers.com

What was the hit on Solo?

We have a new champion at LFL…I think?

 

[Casper Gutman]

No, we can't, or at least I can't. But what I can do is look and see that a movie like Mario, Maverick, Jurassic world... all considerably less than the Disney counterparts. So I have to believe something in the way Disney works, is causing these budgets to be outrageous.

Illumination is, very specifically, the cheap animation house, and it shows. Their films are not nearly as well written or as animated as those of Pixar or Dreamworks.

The budget for Dominion (and Fast X and M:I Dead Reckoning) is more then for TLM or Guardians 3 or Wakanda Forever or Quantumania, the last two having budgets comparable to Maverick or Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. Disney's budgets are not outrageous in relation to other studios' blockbusters.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No, we can't, or at least I can't. But what I can do is look and see that a movie like Mario, Maverick, Jurassic world... all considerably less than the Disney counterparts. So I have to believe something in the way Disney works, is causing these budgets to be outrageous.

I Have a theory…that everyone will hate…wanna hear it?

 

[TP2000]

What was the hit on Solo?

We have a new champion at LFL…I think?

Interesting thought. Let me see...

Adjusted for inflation, with a combined production and marketing budget of $450 Million, Solo lost Disney $221 Million.

It's going to be close, depending on how strong Mission: Impossible is this weekend, but I imagine that Indy 5 will do even worse than Solo did globally.

Movie Comparison: Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) vs. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023)

Domestic box office comparison between Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

I Have a theory…that everyone will hate…wanna hear it?

Yes, please. I need a good one to kick off the cocktail hour.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting thought. Let me see...

Adjusted for inflation, with a combined production and marketing budget of $450 Million, Solo lost Disney $221 Million.

It's going to be close, depending on how strong Mission: Impossible is this weekend, but I imagine that Indy 5 will do even worse than Solo did globally.

View attachment 729450

Movie Comparison: Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) vs. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023)

Domestic box office comparison between Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023)

www.the-numbers.com

I think solo wins.
What a cluster KK runs, huh?

Solo actually did Better then…cause the fans failed.

They just couldn’t wrap their minds around two Star Wars movies in a year? It was asking a whole lot…

And there was a thunderstorm that month…
And it was only 6 months till a congressional midterm…
And only like 230 shopping days till Christmas…

And most like me were on Reddit celebrating baby killer luke Skywalker dialing into a VR fight with his oculus while Leia gases up the Winnebago…
Then had like a heart attack and disappeared slumped over a rock?
But the good news Lando got the soul stone and kept it out of thanos’s hands

Bummer yoda was playing with cheaper fireworks and Burned the bearstein bears tree down though

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, please. I need a good one to kick off the cocktail hour.

…good call. I just got some lazy river bourbon I haven’t tried yet

 

[erasure fan1]

Illumination is, very specifically, the cheap animation house, and it shows. Their films are not nearly as well written or as animated as those of Pixar or Dreamworks.

Well that might be true. But I will say pixar and wdas films don't justify over 2 to 3 times the budget in my opinion. Mario was about 100mil, Rise of gru was 85mil. While not as good as pixar, they still looked good. And everyone loved spidermans animation and that was only 100. Again, it seems as Disney is spending WAY more relatively to its competition.

The budget for Dominion (and Fast X and M:I Dead Reckoning) is more then for TLM

The budget for Dominion was only 185mil as far as I've seen. Mermaid was 250. Fast x has taken its share of lumps for budget and performance, just like mermaid. We still have to wait and see if M:I pays off.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Illumination is, very specifically, the cheap animation house, and it shows. Their films are not nearly as well written or as animated as those of Pixar or Dreamworks.

The budget for Dominion (and Fast X and M:I Dead Reckoning) is more then for TLM or Guardians 3 or Wakanda Forever or Quantumania, the last two having budgets comparable to Maverick or Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. Disney's budgets are not outrageous in relation to other studios' blockbusters.

Illumination might be “cheap”…but hard to argue with $2.5-2.75 billion for slapstick walking Twinkies

Combine that with the 3 despicable me’s and that takes a pretty big chunk outta Pixar at higher price/quality, don’t it?

And fast whatever was steaming crap…but this haul is about $200 mil more than mermaid

Think Tom might make some bank this month too…after he bested every MCU movie since endgame with his little flying thing last year…

 

[Casper Gutman]

Well that might be true. But I will say pixar and wdas films don't justify over 2 to 3 times the budget in my opinion. Mario was about 100mil, Rise of gru was 85mil. While not as good as pixar, they still looked good. And everyone loved spidermans animation and that was only 100. Again, it seems as Disney is spending WAY more relatively to its competition.

The budget for Dominion was only 185mil as far as I've seen. Mermaid was 250. Fast x has taken its share of lumps for budget and performance, just like mermaid. We still have to wait and see if M:I pays off.

Forbes reported Dominion cost over 300 million to produce.

Illumination films can be fun, but the animation looks cheap. It would be a tragedy to see Pixar brought down to that level. As for Spider-Verse, which was great, the filmmakers are currently under fire for abusing their animators, so its probably not a great model to hold up.