Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…box office literally the title…and they keep failing
But I’m over that until the marvels…as long as we don’t get fake math on Indy too…
So I’m more than willing to pivot away from this lovely exercise
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
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But I’m over that until the marvels…as long as we don’t get fake math on Indy too…
So I’m more than willing to pivot away from this lovely exercise
Disney Irish
Premium Member
There hasn't been any fake math so stop that nonsense.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…give it time
Disney Irish
Premium Member
So topic for this thread.....
What will be mentioned of this during the earnings call in August?
If certain films are labeled successful during the earnings call will that change some perspectives?
What will be mentioned of this during the earnings call in August?
If certain films are labeled successful during the earnings call will that change some perspectives?
Joel
Well-Known Member
Gonna need a video feed to see if they can do it with a straight face or not.
Serpico Jones
Well-Known Member
They should sell tickets to that earnings call. Would make an excellent pay per view event.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
Would probably sell more tickets than their recent movies....
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Frankly…who gives a rats what they label anything in an earnings call? It’s always magical bread and circuses…no matter what.
…lemme guess? You’re one of those people that thinks the fbi and the SEC are watching to see if what they say is “100%”??
…yeesh
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Before I hit my Mandatory Cocktail Hour at 8pm, I'm going to do some math for everyone. In order for us to see just how far away from profitability the three summer tentpoles are, now that this weekend's box office numbers are in and before the mid-summer onslaught of Mission: Impossible, Barbie, and that other movie about making The Bomb.
Using the most optimistic scenario for Disney that they got 60% of domestic box office receipts and 40% of overseas box office receipts, and we'll give each movie a rock bottom ridiculously low marketing budget of just $100 Million apiece (Mermaid reportedly spent $140 Million on global marketing, but we'll go with only $100 to benefit Burbank as much as possible).
Mermaid ($350 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $274 Million box office take) = $76 Million Loss Thus Far
Elemental ($300 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $124 Million box office take) = $176 Million Loss Thus Far
Indy 5 ($400 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $123 Million box office take) = $277 Million Loss Thus Far
Total Summer Box Office Loss for Disney as of July 9th = $529 Million
Math can be fun. And what's a half a Billion lost among friends and lovers?
What's the most interesting about the domestic box office graph is the limp start and awful trajectory for Indy 5. Well below Mermaid, and likely to cost Disney a loss of at least a couple hundred million dollars now. Oof.
Movie Comparison: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) vs. The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. Elemental (2023)
Domestic box office comparison between Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) and The Little Mermaid (2023) and Elemental (2023)
www.the-numbers.com
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I bring this up because if there is a "write-down" as you've been saying is going to happen with all these films, that must be noted in the earnings report, which we all can accept. So if certain films aren't listed as a write down, and labeled a success, then one must conclude it at least broke even, if one is being honest.
But hey let's see what they say in August....
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
But let's do an apples to apples comparision.Before I hit my Mandatory Cocktail Hour at 8pm, I'm going to do some math for everyone. In order for us to see just how far away from profitability the three summer tentpoles are, now that this weekend's box office numbers are in and before the mid-summer onslaught of Mission: Impossible, Barbie, and that other movie about making The Bomb.
Using the most optimistic scenario for Disney that they got 60% of domestic box office receipts and 40% of overseas box office receipts, and we'll give each movie a rock bottom ridiculously low marketing budget of just $100 Million apiece (Mermaid reportedly spent $140 Million on global marketing, but we'll go with only $100 to benefit Burbank as much as possible).
Mermaid ($350 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $274 Million box office take) = $76 Million Loss Thus Far
Elemental ($300 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $124 Million box office take) = $176 Million Loss Thus Far
Indy 5 ($400 Million Production/Marketing budget, against $123 Million box office take) = $277 Million Loss Thus Far
Total Summer Box Office Loss for Disney as of July 9th = $529 Million
Math can be fun. And what's a half a Billion lost among friends and lovers?
What's the most interesting about the domestic box office graph is the limp start and awful trajectory for Indy 5. Well below Mermaid, and likely to cost Disney a loss of at least a couple hundred million dollars now. Oof.
View attachment 729257
Movie Comparison: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) vs. The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. Elemental (2023)
Domestic box office comparison between Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) and The Little Mermaid (2023) and Elemental (2023)
What were the total budgets (production + marketing) for:
BatB ($160-$255 million)
Lion King ($260 million)
Aladdin ($183 million)
I only saw production budgets and they weren't that far off of TLM. The only one with a sizeable difference was Aladdin BUT the difference in production budget was nowhere near the difference in global box office.
Anyone know where we can find the total budgets for those movies?
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
Yup, you nailed it. And none of what you say is all that complicated. I would be willing to bet that one or two focus groups of fans would have told them all they need to know. I don't know of too many people who thought that making the sequels with no story plan, and playing choose your own adventure, was a good idea.The core of Star Wars was mark hamill
Full stop. You can’t separate it’s legacy form him or Vice versa.
Not a secret. Irvin kershner said it…Howard kazanjian said it, Gary Kurtz said it, Lawrence kasdan.
Your hero was baked in. Go with it. Either by leading…or sacrifice…or mentorship..whatever.
They had some of the right ideas…just completely botched it.
The focus can’t be the corpse of Carrie fisher…that was just biology…and Harrison ford was fine…but he was NEVER the hero…just the sidekick.
Watch a couple of hours of movies without a focus group and two accountants and you coulda just ingested what it is…
Also: don’t change labels just to do it…the old names and titles were just fine.
Also: don’t shrink the size of the universe down to like 10 people and a ship. Like overcompensate from George’s CG vomit a bit much? Happy medium is called “happy” for a reason. That was R1
Also: don’t let morons write their own whims…for instance a reboot no one on earth ever asked for. Starkiller
Also: don’t hate the audience that liked the thing in the first place. The “war on the 80’s” needed to be fought on another battleground…you got marvel for that
None of this was hard at all. Anyone failing to recognize the minefield they laid shoulda been banned from hollywood.
But let’s get back to current failures…not past ones
Dranth
Well-Known Member
Disagree with the first part, not touching the rest.
I am in no way saying the movie isn't a disappointment (financially, haven't seen it so can't comment on the movie itself) or that Disney is going to be happy with its performance. They aren't, but when all is said and done the movie has a great chance to turn a profit for the company even if it is a small one.
Many seem to be discounting other revenue sources. You take the box office returns, the rentals, the DVD, Blu-Ray and digital sales alone and it likely turns a small profit or breaks even. Throw in the additional income from streaming and it all but guarantees it does.
Now, I know some are in the “streaming is Disney paying itself” group but it is a standard practice used in nearly every business and that money does count. It wasn’t just created out of thin air. One business unit paying to use the product of another is normal.
Also, the double standard of many screaming about D+ losing money in other threads even though most of that "loss" is paying for internal studio content while simultaneously insisting in this thread that the money D+ pays for content is somehow fake and can't be counted is just amazing. Which is it folks, you can't have it conveniently be whatever serves the current point you are trying to make. Either D+ has next to no costs and is wildly profitable or it is in the red because it has to pay for content which then gets counted towards the money that content brings in.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…wait…you don’t want to touch my unicorn?
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Yeah, while Disney obviously had higher hopes for an Indiana Jones movie it's impossible for any of us to really know the ins and outs of multiple revenue streams, movie studio accounting practices, and how well or badly a movie ultimately does.
The Disney studios will pay Disneyland to have characters present to promote a movie. That comes from the movie's promotional budget and adds profit to Disneyland while still flowing into the same large pot. Part of the budget for Indy is no doubt a hefty bill to Industrial Light and Magic, a portion of which is profit. One division profits from another division's expenses.
To say nothing of the long term profit that comes from movies. The first four Indy movies were recently released on individual 4K discs. Prior to that was a 4K box set. Before that there were multiple VHS, DVD, and Blu-ray releases. These movies earn money for decades. Indy 5, while disappointing now, is a high enough profile movie that it will add to Disney's bottom line for years to come.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Indy bombed…let’s not munch on our tails with this one too, please?
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Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
Maybe it will. And if it does, great. But don't you think that Disney is expecting more out of these films? Indy has a reported 300mil budget. Even if they are "paying themselves", that's a huge budget, especially when you factor in marketing. The downstream revenue is always a factor. But as I've said before, I just don't believe that Disney is ok with 200 to 300mil dollar films not hitting near the billion mark. If it was once, ok no worries. But we are way past once.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I think we can all pretty much agree that these films are not hitting expectations. Expectations and budgets mind you that was based on pre-pandemic times.
Its going to take a bit of time, and likely a bunch more movies not hitting expectations, before things get to a new "normal". And this is because as mentioned previously that it takes a number of years, average is 3-4, before the effect of reining budgets will be felt.