Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Actually there are some analysts saying it could happen and that it will be close… it is not really about how poor Wish is doing…Wish is still falling within projections…

Except it's not.

Here is the evolution of box office forecasts for Wish from Box Office Pro over the past 4 weeks, with an update and revision to the forecast every Thursday. They include a 5 day Opening forecast for Thanksgiving week, Wednesday through Sunday.

Wish kept getting revised down, and now that it's finally open it is currently not going to hit even the lowest revised forecast.

October 26th Forecast

November 2nd Forecast

November 9th & 16th Forecast

November 21st Forecast For Thanksgiving Week

And then on Thanksgiving Day the actual numbers started coming in, and the lowered forecasts still proved too rosy for Wish.

Wish is now only projected to get around $42 Million over its 5 day Thanksgiving weekend debut, and Napoleon is surprisingly very close to beating it. And The Hunger Games has held steady from its modest debut a week ago, which is enough to challenge a surprisingly weak Wish.

From The Hollywood Reporter on Thursday afternoon...

"Tracking had Wish, an original story with no affiliated IP, topping the Thanksgiving chart with a five-day feast of $45 million to $50 million, but those predictions appear to have been too bullish. Disney has suffered a rocky year at the box office, capped by recent bust The Marvels, and could have used an unqualified win."

Box Office Surprise: ‘Napoleon’ in Close Battle With ‘Wish’ as ‘Hunger Games’ Prequel Eyes Overall Win

Directed by Ridley Scott and starring Joaquin Phoenix, 'Napoleon' is doing far better than expected for a historical epic catering to older adults.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m definitely seeing Napoleon…asap

It’s totally in my wheelhouse anyway…but I didn’t trust Scott

 

[celluloid]

I’m definitely seeing Napoleon…asap

It’s totally in my wheelhouse anyway…but I didn’t trust Scott

Apparently, it is really good. I know his last one was not great.

And throw what you must at us, but my wife and I did not love but liked Exodus years ago.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Apparently, it is really good. I know his last one was not great.

And throw what you must at us, but my wife and I did not love but liked Exodus years ago.

I’m still a bit traumatized from kingdom of heaven

 

[DKampy]

Apparently, it is really good. I know his last one was not great.

And throw what you must at us, but my wife and I did not love but liked Exodus years ago.

Napoleon holds a 60% critics score and a 61% audience score

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Napoleon holds a 60% critics score and a 61% audience score

Which might be a misnomer…because it’s for grown ups

I think the farce awakens was like 97% and it was nonsense

 

[TalkingHead]

Apparently, it is really good. I know his last one was not great.

And throw what you must at us, but my wife and I did not love but liked Exodus years ago.

Thought Joaquin was miscast and the script was phoned in. I’ll never watch the 4.5 hr cut that’s supposedly coming.

I’d be shocked it’s doing so well this weekend except it’s the only new big release that appeals to older adults who don’t have kids. There’s still something of a market for that.

To bring it back to Disney, very curious how Poor Things does with that group. Seems like it may alienate older audiences but the younger adult audiences don’t always feel compelled to see things in theaters.

 

[DKampy]

Which might be a misnomer…because it’s for grown ups

I think the farce awakens was like 97% and it was nonsense

Also for ”adults“ Killers of the Flower Moon got 92 critics and 83 audience

 

[Tha Realest]

I’m still a bit traumatized from kingdom of heaven

Scott is sadly hit and miss for me too, but I’ll always give him a chance because his hits are all time classics.

FWIW, I hear the extended version of this film is terrific.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Scott is sadly hit and miss for me too, but I’ll always give him a chance because his hits are all time classics.

FWIW, I hear the extended version of this film is terrific.

I’ve read prolly a dozen Napoleon biographies…and half as many on Nelson and Wellington…

So that makes me and easy sell AND a tough critic

Not at all like Disney parks

 

[TalkingHead]

FWIW, I hear the extended version of this film is terrific.

Who told you that? Ridley?

 

[Tha Realest]

Who told you that? Ridley?

Online chatter by some film reviewers I follow. This captures a bit of that sentiment:

Why Kingdom of Heaven Director's Cut Is One of Ridley Scott's Best Films

The theatrical cut is a serviceable action movie, but the director's cut is the true historical epic.

collider.com

 

[Ghost93]

FWIW, I hear the extended version of this film is terrific.

Critics hated the theatrical cut of Kingdom of Heaven but liked the extended version that was almost an hour longer, so I wouldn't be surprised.

Sometimes shorter movies can actually feel longer if you cut vital scenes and sequences that develop the characters and make you care about them.

 

[TalkingHead]

Online chatter by some film reviewers I follow. This captures a bit of that sentiment:

Why Kingdom of Heaven Director's Cut Is One of Ridley Scott's Best Films

The theatrical cut is a serviceable action movie, but the director's cut is the true historical epic.

collider.com

Gotcha. Thought you meant the extended cut of Napoleon.

 

[Tha Realest]

Gotcha. Thought you meant the extended cut of Napoleon.

No worries! Sorry for causing confusion.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Online chatter by some film reviewers I follow. This captures a bit of that sentiment:

Why Kingdom of Heaven Director's Cut Is One of Ridley Scott's Best Films

The theatrical cut is a serviceable action movie, but the director's cut is the true historical epic.

collider.com

The theatrical was much better…
“Fleshed it out” a lot

And no…not a leper joke

 

[Tony the Tigger]

The retort to pointing out the behavior was literally pointing to that the behavior was legitimate because of other people’s actions elsewhere in other situations.

“In many cases, there absolutely is reason more. Read less policed sites”

That is exactly what that kind of deflection is doing. It’s no different then saying a stereotype or prejudice is fine because it’s true for some people.



Which is why I called it out.

No one said it to you, you are reading yourself into it and then reacting as if someone said it to you.

Curious. Why do you identify with them?

 

[Ayla]

The latest numbers from Wednesday, Nov 22nd. Wish comes in at first place.

Domestic Box Office For Nov 22, 2023

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[Tha Realest]

The latest numbers from Wednesday, Nov 22nd. Wish comes in at first place.

Domestic Box Office For Nov 22, 2023

www.boxofficemojo.com

A lot’s happened since then. Might want to check some current totals and projections.

 

[Ghost93]

It's official. Disney is now in a slump we haven't seen since the early 2000s. Of course, back then the company was able to rely on low budget films like The Princess Diaries and Freaky Friday to turn in a profit, but there isn't a market for those types of movies now. And whereas the Pixar brand somewhat rescued the company in the 2000s while the Disney Animation Studios films flopped, nowadays Pixar is also no longer a sure-fire bet.

I'm confident that the company will eventually recover but I can't forsee things rebounding until at least 2025-2027.