Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Like most of us here, I care for the long-term survival of The Walt Disney Company.

They've had a disastrous 2023 at the box office, they've lost over $800 Million so far, and that simply can't continue.

That's why this is important to me.

Its a 100 year old company, they've had disastrous years in its past, and survived. Sorry but not every year is going to be a "banner" year. So in the macro sense this is going to be a blip in their long storied history. Things will adjust as the industry continues to change, and this year will fade into the past and be mostly forgotten.

And honestly outside of a few here once they get a few hits again none of this will be discussed beyond some anecdotal posts.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

Just checking, we are actually wondering why this movie that cost $275M has bombed in historic fashion around the world?

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LOL - they marketed it as "Crazy Cat Lady Aunt" the Movie

... right in the sweet spot of the MCU's target demographic.

 

[Tha Realest]

The MCU is telling the Multiverse Saga right now, so they can literally bring anyone into the two scheduled Avengers movies. That includes any past Avenger that died or any castings that fans have been wanting from anywhere in the Multiverse, literally anyone. This is similar to how fans wanted Krasinski to be cast as Mr Fantastic and he got cast for the part in Strange 2 without the whole rest of the F4 team.

Plus not to mention Young Avengers being setup. Add to that that Mutants are also likely to be part of at least Secret Wars the second Avengers movie, with their own standalone movies later.

So similar to End Game its very likely it be jam packed with any and every Avenger imaginable, past, present, and future, and anyone in-between. Which in my mind is exactly how a Saga ending story arc in the MCU should end, any and every Avenger character no matter what form is brought in to fight whatever needs to be fought.

As for the F4, this will be the first time they are being told by Marvel Studios, ie never been under Feige's control. So I'm not really worried about it. And as for Blade I don't care if the script gets rewritten 100x, as long as they get it right that is what I care about, so we'll see what happens.

That Avengers movie as you describe would cost $400M to make.

Again, none of the current Avengers cast has demonstrated they are a box office draw (within the MCU or out). Paying RDJr or Evans $30-$40M each isn’t ideal (assuming either would do it)

 

[Casper Gutman]

Feel free to round up to a billion at any time.

If only there was an expression to capture what is happening to Disney.

They are pandering to a tiny vocal community that has.no interest in their product, which is causing them to lose billions in shareholder dollars over the past few years.

Maybe someday there will be a catchy phrase to capture this phenomenon….

What’s the catchy phrase you’re alluding to? Why not be clear?

And what’s the “tiny community?”

 

[Disstevefan1]

Feel free to round up to a billion at any time.

If only there was an expression to capture what is happening to Disney.

They are pandering to a tiny vocal community that has.no interest in their product, which is causing them to lose billions in shareholder dollars over the past few years.

Maybe someday there will be a catchy phrase to capture this phenomenon….

Eisner was known for the "Disney Decade"

Maybe Iger will be known for the "Disney Panderverse"

 

[Casper Gutman]

Eisner was known for the "Disney Decade"

Maybe Iger will be known for the "Disney Panderverse"

Any specific examples of “pandering?”

(And around and around we go…)

 

[AdventureHasAName]

Feel free to round up to a billion at any time.

If only there was an expression to capture what is happening to Disney.

They are pandering to a tiny vocal community that has.no interest in their product, which is causing them to lose billions in shareholder dollars over the past few years.

Maybe someday there will be a catchy phrase to capture this phenomenon….

A decade ago, Disney bought not one, but two money-printing machines (Star Wars and Marvel). And it immediately let the intern (who doesn't like money) smash the Star Wars machine with a sledgehammer. On the other hand, Disney turned the Marvel machine on and watched as it printed billions of dollars. Then about five years ago, it handed the intern her sledgehammer and watched as she smashed the hell out of the Marvel machine, too. Now it is wondering why neither machine prints money anymore.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

My kids are surprisingly really interested in seeing "Next Goal Wins" We will probably go this weekend or next. I know the reviews are mixed, but I've always been a Taika fan.

 

[Disney Irish]

That Avengers movie as you describe would cost $400M to make.

Again, none of the current Avengers cast has demonstrated they are a box office draw (within the MCU or out). Paying RDJr or Evans $30-$40M each isn’t ideal (assuming either would do it)

Maybe you aren't aware of the story being told in Secret Wars, but that is exactly the movie that would have all the Avengers I described.

Deals can be worked out so actors take a smaller paycheck up front so talent parts of the budgets don't get out of control. However with that said for Endgame level box office sometimes you have to have Endgame level budgets, which was reportedly $356M. Not saying it'll cost even that much, but if the goal is to get another box office take like Endgame they'll likely pay RDJ and Evans.

 

[Tha Realest]

Maybe you aren't aware of the story being told in Secret Wars, but that is exactly the movie that would have all the Avengers I described.

Deals can be worked out so actors take a smaller paycheck up front so talent parts of the budgets don't get out of control. However with that said for Endgame level box office sometimes you have to have Endgame level budgets, which was reportedly $356M. Not saying it'll cost even that much, but if the goal is to get another box office take like Endgame they'll likely pay RDJ and Evans.

If The Marvels cost $275M starring Brie Larson and two TV actors, with a newish director, how much more is a star-studded Avengers movie going to cost, post-strike, and under a new VFX bargaining group to deal with?

RD Jr is likely to get nominated (and win) for an Oscar for Oppenheimer. Does this sound like a man interested in coming back?

 

[LittleBuford]

Any specific examples of “pandering?”

(And around and around we go…)

They'll be citing that South Park episode for months to come.

 

[Tha Realest]

They'll be citing that South Park episode for months to come.

It’s the only Disney or Disney-adjacent work that’s had any cultural penetration released this year.

 

[Disstevefan1]

They'll be citing that South Park episode for months to come.

It was a fun and well balanced episode. I give it a 10 out of 10.

 

[TalkingHead]

It’s the only Disney or Disney-adjacent work that’s had any cultural penetration released this year.

To be fair, the only people talking about a South Park ep are internet users who obsess over Disney’s feature film mismanagement. Normies didn’t see it and don’t care.

 

[Disstevefan1]

To be fair, the only people talking about a South Park ep are internet users who obsess over Disney’s feature film mismanagement. Normies didn’t see it and don’t care.

While I admit I am not normal, I thought the South Park episode was fun and well balanced.

I also loved Elemental, I liked Lightyear, I just thought it stood on its own and had nothing to do with Andy. As for Strange World, I liked all the characters, I just did not like the climate crisis messaging that said we must live in the dark to save the planet.

And yes, the reason TWDC cannot make money on their movies is because of mismanagement and this will not end until Iger is out of there.

 

[Casper Gutman]

If The Marvels cost $275M starring Brie Larson and two TV actors, with a newish director, how much more is a star-studded Avengers movie going to cost, post-strike, and under a new VFX bargaining group to deal with?

RD Jr is likely to get nominated (and win) for an Oscar for Oppenheimer. Does this sound like a man interested in coming back?

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Yup, he’ll come back. I’d be quite surprised if an informal understanding hasn’t been in place with Evans and Downey for a while - I doubt they do the multiverse/Secret Wars storyline (and forego interim Avengers) without one. I suspect the films will end with some version of the old Avengers giving their blessing to a new team.

I’m sure Downey had concerns about getting typecast and was tired of the MCU, but entering the MCU he was tired of “awards-y” films. Actors get bored, and he’s not coming back for another 10 films. Oppenheimer aside, he’s had a number of big post-MCU failures.

 

[Disstevefan1]

If The Marvels cost $275M starring Brie Larson and two TV actors, with a newish director, how much more is a star-studded Avengers movie going to cost, post-strike, and under a new VFX bargaining group to deal with?

RD Jr is likely to get nominated (and win) for an Oscar for Oppenheimer. Does this sound like a man interested in coming back?

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He will come back because Disney will pay him whatever he wants because in their movie business they have no concept of budget.

 

[Tha Realest]

I’m sure Downey had concerns about getting typecast and was tired of the MCU, but entering the MCU he was tired of “awards-y” films. Actors get bored, and he’s not coming back for another 10 films. Oppenheimer aside, he’s had a number of big post-MCU failures.

Name them. Tell me the “number of big post-MCU failures.” Give me three. Dolittle was a miss, sure, but is par for the course for Disney’s 2023 theatrical slate (which you dismiss and hand-wave away as failures).

Give me RD Jr’s top three misses, and I’ll let you include Dolittle as one.

 

[Disney Irish]

If The Marvels cost $275M starring Brie Larson and two TV actors, with a newish director, how much more is a star-studded Avengers movie going to cost, post-strike, and under a new VFX bargaining group to deal with?

RD Jr is likely to get nominated (and win) for an Oscar for Oppenheimer. Does this sound like a man interested in coming back?

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I have a feeling that Sam Jackson got a hefty paycheck for Marvels, he reportedly got $20M just for Secret Invasion, so you can imagine what he got for Marvels. As I said deals can be made to lower initial paychecks for actors to keep the talent portion of the budget lower.

Anyways I've long said that RDJ and Evans wanted to walk away, not the MCU getting rid of them, and would take a solid reason for them to come back. But there have been rumors swirling for over a year about both RDJ and Evans making some return for at least Secret Wars, if not more appearances in future installments. For example RDJ is rumored to even make a holographic appearance in Armor Wars, if that show/movie is still happening.

 

[Chi84]

It was a fun and well balanced episode. I give it a 10 out of 10.

I liked it too. South Park aims for a lot of things, but being well-balanced isn’t one of them lol.