Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Casper Gutman]

The super hero bubble has burst. Sure, we can all point fingers, but how long did we really expect this phenomenon to last?
The question, is can Disney find the next big thing?

Nah. 3 of the top 10 (and, domestically, 2 of the top 4) films of the year are superhero films.

The ongoing, multi-protagonist model of superhero universes is ideal for the corporate and economic structure of the film industry, which is why every IP, regardless of origin, tries to imitate it.

The years big hits (Mario, Barbie, and FNAF) are not easily reproducible, and efforts to imitate them are going to result in big bombs.

The superhero model will change slightly, but comic book films will continue to be a significant part of Hollywoods output. In 2024, Kraven and Madame Web will bomb big (surprising no one), Deadpool 3 and Joker 2 will be big hits, and Venom 3 will be a minor hit.

 

[LSLS]

The super hero bubble has burst. Sure, we can all point fingers, but how long did we really expect this phenomenon to last?
The question, is can Disney find the next big thing?

I actually completely disagree. I think for super hero movies what we've learned is that you better have a saga setup as opposed to individual films when you are running a lot out quickly if it's not a major well-known character. I also think theaters and studios are going to learn the hard way about how much they can charge with people having large entertainment systems at home that can stream in 4k. Movies are no longer the affordable family outing you can hit up once a week, they are a once every month or every 2 months splurge. I actually think Marvel (or Disney studios as a whole) may have learned this too late (hence the Marvels last TV spot that has all the references to End Game and that it changes everything).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

After ‘The Marvels’ Bombs at the Box Office, What’s Next for the MCU?

"The Marvels" is a rare misfire for Disney's Marvel Cinematic Universe.

variety.com

 

[TalkingHead]

Interconnected multiversal storytelling may get the nerds all hot and bothered, but there’s a point of diminishing returns when these things can’t be budgeted for less than $200m.

Deadpool will do well. It’s a multi-star vehicle with a different adult sensibility than the Disney MCU stuff.

Joker will do well. It’s a multi-star vehicle with a different adult sensibility than the Disney MCU stuff.

Put another way: These two movies are more like Cabaret. Disney MCU is Hello Dolly.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I think folks on the boards gotta stop looking at the box office. TWDC for sure does not care, and it also seems wall street does not care since the stock went up after the quarterly results call.

Folks may argue that the reason Marvel was purchased to attract the boys since the girls were covered with princesses, but the world has changed since Disney purchased Marvel and as Iger has said, TWDC will teach show everyone there are heroines and fix the past while they are at it.

I truly believe TWDC does not care about making money on their movies. It would be "a nice side effect", but I really think TWDC consider their movies are "sundry costs" like paper clips, pencils and paper...

 

[LittleBuford]

I truly believe TWDC does not care about making money on their movies. It would be "a nice side effect", but I really think TWDC consider their movies are "sundry costs" like paper clips, pencils and paper...

You keep saying this, and I can’t tell if it’s sarcasm or a sincere belief, but it clearly isn’t true.

 

[Disstevefan1]

You keep saying this, and I can’t tell if it’s sarcasm or a sincere belief, but it clearly isn’t true.

I sincerely believe to TWDC making moves are not about making money. Their movies are made to teach us; show us what is right. There is a quote from Iger's book about this. I will try to find it.

I could be totally wrong, but to me, that's what it seems like.

 

[Chi84]

I sincerely believe to TWDC making moves are not about making money. Their movies are made to teach us; show us what is right. There is a quote from Iger's book about this. I will try to find it.

I could be totally wrong, but to me, that's what it seems like.

Disney’s movies are largely based on fairytales or fables and those usually have a “moral to the story.” Disney’s movies have always displayed acts of heroism and extolled virtues like truthfulness, love, kindness, compassion, etc.

I don’t see any of these things missing from recent movies. Times change, so they’re presented differently, but the core seems to still be the same.

 

[erasure fan1]

I sincerely believe to TWDC making moves are not about making money. Their movies are made to teach us; show us what is right. There is a quote from Iger's book about this. I will try to find it.

I could be totally wrong, but to me, that's what it seems like.

If there's one thing about the Walt Disney company that is a sure thing. It's that they are all about making money. The end game of everything they do is with the expectation of profit. Especially with Iger at the helm. If profit wasn't the motive, the star wars sequels aren't rushed into production with zero plan. It was about getting it out to capitalize on the excitement of the announcement. If you want to make films that have a higher purpose, that's all great, just not at 200+ to 300mil budgets. Everything can't be an event film. "Because when everything is an event film, none of them are." I think it was Syndrome that said that.

 

[Disstevefan1]

If there's one thing about the Walt Disney company that is a sure thing. It's that they are all about making money. The end game of everything they do is with the expectation of profit. Especially with Iger at the helm. If profit wasn't the motive, the star wars sequels aren't rushed into production with zero plan. It was about getting it out to capitalize on the excitement of the announcement. If you want to make films that have a higher purpose, that's all great, just not at 200+ to 300mil budgets. Everything can't be an event film. "Because when everything is an event film, none of them are." I think it was Syndrome that said that.

I forever I too thought for TWDC it was all about profit and still today the way they run their theme parks it still seems true.

It doesn’t seem to be that way in their movie business, so there seems to be different standards and objectives depending on the business unit within the company.

I am just looking in from the outside and that what it seems like to me.

 

[Dranth]

I sincerely believe to TWDC making moves are not about making money. Their movies are made to teach us; show us what is right. There is a quote from Iger's book about this. I will try to find it.

I could be totally wrong, but to me, that's what it seems like.

It is about making money. While they can and often do continue to benefit from their films long after the theatrical release, they still want to make money at the box office.

Iger even came out during the earnings call and said they have been doing a bad job at the box office and needed to cut down the number of releases and improve the quality of the films they do put out. He mentioned at least three or four times that is where he is personally focusing his attention. I would expect that means we will see better planned movies with more controlled budgets once the current pipeline is cleared.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It is about making money. While they can and often do continue to benefit from their films long after the theatrical release, they still want to make money at the box office.

Iger even came out during the earnings call and said they have been doing a bad job at the box office and needed to cut down the number of releases and improve the quality of the films they do put out. He mentioned at least three or four times that is where he is personally focusing his attention. I would expect that means we will see better planned movies with more controlled budgets once the current pipeline is cleared.

My logical brain knows any business must make money to stay in business, but it just seems for TWDC, their movie business does not necessarily need to make money, its seems more like a big advertising expense that if they could occasionally make money from, its a bonus.

Perhaps for TWDC when it comes to their movie business, there are looking to make money in the extreme long term from possible D+ subs, physical media, and merch, as I said, using the movie as a big commercial.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Disney’s movies are largely based on fairytales or fables and those usually have a “moral to the story.” Disney’s movies have always displayed acts of heroism and extolled virtues like truthfulness, love, kindness, compassion, etc.

I don’t see any of these things missing from recent movies. Times change, so they’re presented differently, but the core seems to still be the same.

You are right, and as long as everyone can separate the storytelling from the money part of TWDC's movie business, that's fine. It seems we are back to, as long as no one cares about the box office (I don't care and it sure seems TWDC does not care either) we are fine.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

You keep saying this, and I can’t tell if it’s sarcasm or a sincere belief, but it clearly isn’t true.

It would be true if he had replaced the "TWDC" with the "Reimagine Disney" (or whatever it's being called today) DEI department. And there's another subset (*cough* Kathleen Kennedy *cough*) who wants to make money, but is willing to take far less of a profit if a project can push a real world ideological agenda.

 

[Chi84]

You are right, and as long as everyone can separate the storytelling from the money part of TWDC's movie business, that's fine. It seems we are back to, as long as no one cares about the box office (I don't care and it sure seems TWDC does not care either) we are fine.

But I think they do care. They’re just not doing the best job of predicting what will get people in theaters today. I don’t think it’s for lack of trying to make hit movies.

 

[Chi84]

It would be true if he had replaced the "TWDC" with the "Reimagine Disney" (or whatever it's being called today) DEI department. And there's another subset (*cough* Kathleen Kennedy *cough*) who wants to make money, but is willing to take far less of a profit if a project can push a real world ideological agenda.

Are they pushing an agenda or just reflecting the real world? It seems to me they’re doing the latter.

 

[Disstevefan1]

But I think they do care. They’re just not doing the best job of predicting what will get people in theaters today. I don’t think it’s for lack of trying to make hit movies.

TWDC is trying and doing. The movies they release is their best work and they are sincere in what they are doing.

If I had to fault them, I would say firstly, they spend too much to make and market the movies, second, doing the remakes of classics dose not seen to be what folks want.

New stories, like Wish, is what folks want in my opinion.

Wish will be a box office smash hit.

 

[LittleBuford]

It would be true if he had replaced the "TWDC" with the "Reimagine Disney" (or whatever it's being called today) DEI department. And there's another subset (*cough* Kathleen Kennedy *cough*) who wants to make money, but is willing to take far less of a profit if a project can push a real world ideological agenda.

Conspiracy theories aren’t my thing.

 

[TP2000]

Perhaps you know something he doesn't, but the president of Pixar, when interviewed in August as the film was rebounding, said he hoped it would end up making $460 million—it went on to make considerably more than that—and that "it should do better than break even theatrically" based on his expectations. I can only interpret that as meaning that his hoped-for figure of $460 million is above the break-even point.

I'm happy to count it in the Profit column for our big New Year's Tournament of Champions 2023 Box Office Summary that I'll post here on December 31st.

Elemental made $486 Million at the global box office. If they somehow only spent $40 Million on marketing, then perhaps $450 Million was the break even point. If Pixar got half of the global box office above $450 Million, that would mean Elemental made a profit of $23 Million at the box office.

Does that sound fair to you? We'll credit Elemental with a $23 Million profit instead of a loss?

 

[TP2000]

Are they pushing an agenda or just reflecting the real world? It seems to me they’re doing the latter.

The problem is the "real world" folks aren't showing up for their movies.

My thought is that we all know instinctively what the "real world" is (since we inhabit it every day), and almost all of us are thrilled with the advances and progress that world has made over the past 60 years. But Disney's version of the "real world" in their movies lately doesn't come off as natural and real, so much as it comes off as forced and cringey.

People dislike cringe, and can easily spot it from 20 feet away. And people dislike paying for a ticket to cringe even more.

Hence, Disney's disastrous box office results of 2023.