Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[_caleb]

It just seems odd to lay the blame on this film’s perceived failure on men, or toxic men, when men appear to have done their part.

I think it'd be an oversimplification to say that "men did their part" because some bought tickets to The Marvels. Many men (even those same men who bought tickets) are also the ones who have spread negative word of mouth, contributed to hostile fandom, polemicized, etc. And I'm not trying to lay blame so much as consider the variety of factors affecting the film's reception and performance.

Implicit in broadening and growing an audience is that the audience reciprocates, no? If, for example, Deadpool 3 casts Taylor Swift in something slightly more than a cameo, then those producers/creators would expect at least some of the Swifties that had never considered seeing a superhero movie would show up?

I've been saying for a while that I don't think Disney knows quite how to get these emerging audiences to come out to the movies. I mean, look at the inconsistent marketing efforts (very different trailers) and decisions about what should be a film and what should be a D+ series.

I think it's certainly their intention to connect with new (and re-connect with disillusioned) fans of all kinds. Maybe a TS cameo would have made The Marvels a massive hit. Maybe dressing the entire cast in Barbie shades of pink would have tapped into some fleeting trend. But these days, those things might just as well hurt the film's chances even more.

Regardless, I'm fairly certain Disney is looking at lots and lots of data. I think they know what audience(s) they're going for, they just don't know how to connect with them well right now. I'm beginning to think there really isn't a way that would reliably sustain the business as it was.

 

[Chi84]

So apparently we are not allowed to discuss the reported factual demographics of the film’s audience when discussing a film that was specifically written, directed, and cast to attract specific demographics?

Uh, OK…

If you have a question about what is or is not allowed it’s probably better to directly contact a moderator and ask. Complaining here won’t accomplish anything.

 

[_caleb]

So apparently we are not allowed to discuss the reported factual demographics of the film’s audience when discussing a film that was specifically written, directed, and cast to attract specific demographics?

Uh, OK…

I think it's not really about what we're allowed to say and more about how we're asked to say it.

 

[Chi84]

I think it's not really about what we're allowed to say and more about how we're asked to say it.

No, I think it is about the actual topics. The politics and social issues forum proved that the arguments involving those topics get so heated that the resulting bad feelings are detrimental to the forum community.

It’s okay to disagree with that rule (many do) but if someone can’t post without disregarding it, not posting is probably the best option. (Not referring to your posts.)

 

[TP2000]

And with several other movies including the Swift concert movie doing well, there isn't enough money left over for an unsure MCU movie on opening weekend. I mean notice how no other movie really competed this weekend either. So I think there are many factors to why opening weekend isn't as stellar as previous MCU movies.

Huh? The Marvels had this weekend all to itself. Taylor Swift's movie has been out for 5 weekends now. Almost every other movie in the Top 10 was at least 3 or 4 weeks old, some were up to 6 or 7 weeks old.

We'll see if it turns around in the weeks to come like Elemental did, or if it just ends up just not performing well overall.

Word of mouth on The Marvels isn't good, the reviews are middling at best, and women are avoiding it like the plague.

So how on earth could it turn things around in the next month while all the other Thanksgiving/Christmas tentpoles start getting released at the same time? The Marvels bombed, and historically so. For Marvel, this was their Strange World moment.

There will be no turnaround. The only question now is, how much money will The Marvels lose for Disney? Will it "only" lose $100 Million? $150 Million?

‘The Marvels’ bombs at the box office

Since 2008’s “Iron Man,” the Marvel machine has been one of the most unstoppable forces in box-office history. Now, though, that aura of invincibility is showing signs of wear and tear. The superhe…

ktla.com

Box Office: ‘The Marvels’ Misfires With $47 Million, Lowest MCU Opening Weekend of All Time

"The Marvels" landed the worst opening weekend in MCU history.

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Huh? The Marvels had this weekend all to itself. Taylor Swift's movie has been out for 5 weekends now. Almost every other movie in the Top 10 was at least 3 or 4 weeks old, some were up to 6 or 7 weeks old.

View attachment 753906



Word of mouth on The Marvels isn't good, the reviews are middling at best, and women are avoiding it like the plague.

So how on earth could it turn things around in the next month while all the other Thanksgiving/Christmas tentpoles start getting released at the same time? The Marvels bombed, and historically so. For Marvel, this was their Strange World moment.

There will be no turnaround. The only question now is, how much money will The Marvels lose for Disney? Will it "only" lose $100 Million? $150 Million? $200 Million?

‘The Marvels’ bombs at the box office

Since 2008’s “Iron Man,” the Marvel machine has been one of the most unstoppable forces in box-office history. Now, though, that aura of invincibility is showing signs of wear and tear. The superhe…

ktla.com

Box Office: ‘The Marvels’ Misfires With $47 Million, Lowest MCU Opening Weekend of All Time

"The Marvels" landed the worst opening weekend in MCU history.

variety.com

Since you left it off the whole first sentence of my post, likely intentionally. My point is that its expensive for a family to go to the movies these days. As such because other movies such as the Taylor Swift concert movie already sucked up a lot of families budgets for movies in the last couple weeks that may be keeping families that would normal go away opening weekend for The Marvels. As I mentioned, no other movie this week really got them flocking in either. There were huge drops across the board, showing many not going to the movies at all.

As I keep saying I don't know how it'll turn out once it finishes its theatrical run. But as we've seen this year from movies like Elemental it can turn around even after a disappointing opening weekend. Or maybe it'll lose tons of money. I don't know.

 

[TP2000]

Industry media site Deadline has updated its audience demographic statistics for the first weekend of The Marvels.

The audiences in the USA looked like this demographically;

65% Male (45% men over 25, 20% men under 25)
35% Female (22% women over 25, 13% women under 25)

Biggest Age Demographic: 33% of audience was aged 25 to 34

42% White
27% Latino
17% Black
14% Asian

 

[TP2000]

Since you left it off the whole first sentence of my post, likely intentionally.

That wasn't intentional. I just didn't quite grasp it as part of the reasoning for why America stayed away from theaters this weekend. Because...

The Marvels had this weekend all to itself, competing against fading movies that have been out for a month or more. It failed.

As I keep saying I don't know how it'll turn out once it finishes its theatrical run.

I didn't know for certain how it would turn out 4 days ago, but now I'm confident I know how it will end its theatrical run.

The Marvels has bombed in its opening weekend, it will face increasingly face competition over the next three weeks as more Thanksgiving tentpoles come out and we head into the Christmas season with more tentpoles. The Marvels is a flop and is going to lose a great deal of money for Disney, the 10th mega-budget Disney movie in a row this year to do that.

The only real unknown at this point is how much money will it lose? Only $100 Million? Or $150 Million or more?

 

[Disney Irish]

That wasn't intentional. I just didn't quite grasp it as part of the reasoning for why America stayed away from theaters this weekend. Because...

The Marvels had this weekend all to itself, competing against fading movies that have been out for a month or more. It failed.

Families don't have unlimited money to go to movies every week, its expensive. As someone that has admitted to not really going to the movies at all, you may not understand. So yeah The Marvels didn't pack them in this weekend even with no competition. One possible reason maybe due to other movies already sucking up the movie budgets of families. Just saying its a possible reason. You can disagree if you want to, but its a very plausible reason.

I didn't know for certain how it would turn out 4 days ago, but now I'm confident I know how it will end its theatrical run.

The Marvels has bombed in its opening weekend, it will face increasingly face competition over the next three weeks as more Thanksgiving tentpoles come out and we head into the Christmas season with more tentpoles. The Marvels is a flop and is going to lose a great deal of money for Disney, the 10th mega-budget Disney movie in a row this year to do that.

The only real unknown at this point is how much money will it lose? Only $100 Million? Or $200 Million or more?

You said similar things about Elemental too, and it ended up legging it out over its theatrical run. And while it didn't end up making huge profit it likely did just about break even if not turn a slight profit (we don't have the exact figures to tell for sure). So I don't count things out until it finishes its run. Obviously Disney hopes for huge profits, but at this point I think they would take a win if any of their movies do break even or better this year.

 

[TP2000]

You said similar things about Elemental too, and it ended up legging it out over its theatrical run. And while it didn't end up making huge profit it likely did just about break even if not turn a slight profit (we don't have the exact figures to tell for sure).

That box office data is readily available. Due to its huge $200 Million production budget, and a lavish marketing budget of half that, Elemental failed to break even. It likely lost around $75 Million for Disney/Pixar.

Elemental: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $92 Domestic, $133 Foreign = $75 Million Loss

Elemental (2023) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Elemental (2023) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

So yeah The Marvels didn't pack them in this weekend even with no competition. One possible reason maybe due to other movies already sucking up the movie budgets of families. Just saying its a possible reason. You can disagree if you want to, but its a very plausible reason.

One thing I noticed was there were a lot more screens showing it in 3D, which is an even more expensive ticket. Proportionately, maybe only 20-30% of showings were standard, at least down here.

 

[Disney Irish]

That box office data is readily available. Due to its huge $200 Million production budget, and a lavish marketing budget of half that, Elemental failed to break even. It likely lost around $75 Million for Disney/Pixar.

Elemental: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $92 Domestic, $133 Foreign = $75 Million Loss

View attachment 753907

Elemental (2023) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Elemental (2023) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

As I said we don't have the exact figures. Specifically with marketing you're guessing. And with budgets its been explained by Pixar that the "reported" budget also included administrative costs and aren't really taken into account by other studios when reporting budget. So both the budget and marketing are fairly likely to be overblown here. Which is why Pixar also said it would likely turn a profit during its theatrical run, I'm willing to concede at least break even.

 

[Disney Irish]

One thing I noticed was there were a lot more screens showing it in 3D, which is an even more expensive ticket. Proportionately, maybe only 20-30% of showings were standard, at least down here.

Same here plus other premium offerings, and I suspect the same in most major areas.

 

[LittleBuford]

That box office data is readily available. Due to its huge $200 Million production budget, and a lavish marketing budget of half that, Elemental failed to break even. It likely lost around $75 Million for Disney/Pixar.

Elemental: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $92 Domestic, $133 Foreign = $75 Million Loss

View attachment 753907

Elemental (2023) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Elemental (2023) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

Perhaps you know something he doesn't, but the president of Pixar, when interviewed in August as the film was rebounding, said he hoped it would end up making $460 million—it went on to make considerably more than that—and that "it should do better than break even theatrically" based on his expectations. I can only interpret that as meaning that his hoped-for figure of $460 million is above the break-even point.

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound: ‘This Will Certainly Be a Profitable Film’

Pixar's president Jim Morris talks "Elemental," which is enjoying a box office rebound after stumbling in its debut.

variety.com

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I'll venture a guess: I think it's not strictly about the story or the characters or even the actors, but about the larger conversation around superhero movies.

The Marvel fandom is aggressively hostile. Nevermind Twitter, read through the comments on these boards (and note how many posts have been removed). Nothing says "welcome!" like dripping sarcasm, nerd rage, mocking, belittling, and meanspirited debate. I think the Snydergate and Fandom Menace had a bigger influence on geekier films like those of the MCU than people might think.

Word of mouth has been really bad in general (and for Larson in particular), mostly driven by people who pre-judged The Marvels as a convergence of all their grievances against Disney/Marvel/the world. See how many have been predicting for months that this would bomb and those who gleefully post box office data.

Movies like The Marvels are being treated as avatars for social and political ideologies. [Edited to remove examples of this.] I could see how a casual fan might hear all this stuff and decide to skip this one.

As others have mentioned, the MCU is a tangled mess of storytelling. It probably doesn't seem accessible anymore, and the D+ series only added to the sense that making sense of a new Marvel film requires lots of homework.

And in general, moviegoing trends are changing. Some will wait and see it on Disney+ (which is still a new thing but rarely gets factored into discussion about box office numbers). Yes, there have been some successful movies recently, but it seems like in general, the studios can't figure out how to reliably get people to come out (despite how easy some here insist it should be).

I'm not saying these are all equal. Some might even be minor. But at the end of the day, there isn't one single reason that the Marvels isn't doing well or that women might not be flooding the theaters for this one.

Or… it’s as simple as comic book/super hero fans are predominantly men.

Sometimes the obvious answer is the answer. That doesn’t mean women don’t enjoy comics and enjoy super hero movies, it’s just not the first choice for most women. I’m not sure why that’s such a controversial concept.

My GF has seen every Marvel movie, she thoroughly enjoys most of them, but as far as I know she’s never seen one in the theaters without her son, and often she sees them twice because we’ll go together also. Her and her girlfriends do girls movie night a couple times a year and in the 9 years we’ve been dating they‘ve never once picked a super hero movie.

 

[erasure fan1]

Perhaps you know something he doesn't, but the president of Pixar, when interviewed in August as the film was rebounding, said he hoped it would end up making $460 million—it went on to make considerably more than that—and that "it should do better than break even theatrically" based on his expectations. I can only interpret that as meaning that his hoped-for figure of $460 million is above the break-even point.

It all depends on marketing and actual overseas percentage of box office. Of 495mil, the majority was international and that, in general, gets a lower percentage back. It would seem that marketing would have needed to be sub 50mil for it to have been profitable. And I'm obviously no marketing cost expert, but it had a pretty extensive campaign. I can't see a path to profit based on what we know, which could be way off I know. The positive is the movie had a fairly nice comeback from where it started. It's a great example of what word of mouth can do.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

As I said we don't have the exact figures. Specifically with marketing you're guessing. And with budgets its been explained by Pixar that the "reported" budget also included administrative costs and aren't really taken into account by other studios when reporting budget. So both the budget and marketing are fairly likely to be overblown here. Which is why Pixar also said it would likely turn a profit during its theatrical run, I'm willing to concede at least break even.

Perhaps you know something he doesn't, but the president of Pixar, when interviewed in August as the film was rebounding, said he hoped it would end up making $460 million—it went on to make considerably more than that—and that "it should do better than break even theatrically" based on his expectations. I can only interpret that as meaning that his hoped-for figure of $460 million is above the break-even point.

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound: ‘This Will Certainly Be a Profitable Film’

Pixar's president Jim Morris talks "Elemental," which is enjoying a box office rebound after stumbling in its debut.

variety.com

Come on, guys. We all know that “some guy on the internet” who isn’t in the movie business knows better than people who actually make movies for a living (for one of the biggest and most successful studios, no less.)

 

[Tha Realest]

One thing I noticed was there were a lot more screens showing it in 3D, which is an even more expensive ticket. Proportionately, maybe only 20-30% of showings were standard, at least down here.

I appreciate the effort here, but studios fight over PLF and 3D theater access for the very reason that they earn more on those tickets.

 

[TalkingHead]

Based on Marvel’s recent past, the second weekend drop off will probably be dramatic.

Shouldn’t be forgotten that this is directly connected to Iger’s D+ folly and the need to use the golden goose movie franchise as a way to lure subscribers. So for all the talk of streaming’s success (just around the corner..) keep in mind it came at the cost of audience disinterest at the box office. Good exec leadership, there.

Wild guess: They’re gonna start churning out SW features every year to compensate. They’re a “sure thing.” Right. Maybe one will accidentally be good if we’re lucky.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

The super hero bubble has burst. Sure, we can all point fingers, but how long did we really expect this phenomenon to last?
The question, is can Disney find the next big thing?