Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Ghost93]

The actual 5 day Thanksgiving weekend projection for Wish is an average of $72 Million. That's better, but still shockingly low. And those projections weakened by 7% since last week, so the momentum is not building. At least not yet.

That's not "shockingly low" that's pretty good for an original animated movie in today's environment. Original movies don't have a built-in fanbase so they don't open as high. However, if they are good, they tend to have better legs.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The ultimate box office success of Wish will depend on how good the movie is. There is a decent enough amount of interest at the moment, but I think a lot of people are on the fence. If it's good/great I can see it legging out to be a big hit. If not, it will probably underperform.

Right now I think the movie looks like a mixed bag. The background animation is STUNNING but the character animation is hit or miss. I think the songs have catchy tunes, but I dislike the lyrics. I guess at the end of the day I have to see how good the storytelling is, and how much I enjoy Asha and King Magnifico as characters.

 

[Tha Realest]

My general feeling, right now, is:

For Marvels, they’re already plotting out the digital release and DVD/BR release dates to maximize ROI on Marvels marketing, as it’s irretrievably going to be a huge loss. It’ll be on D+ by Spring Break, possibly February.

Wish has a chance to scrape and hustle to break even. Critical reception and word of mouth will be key.

Overseas will not do either of these movies any favors.

 

[MisterPenguin]

One person familiar with the “Blade” script changes says the story at one point morphed into a narrative led by women and filled with life lessons, with Mahershala Ali's Blade relegated to the fourth lead. ​

There was a script in which Blade was just a friend to the Sex in the City gals?

I don't believe it.

Though someone "familiar with the script" sounds totally reliable.

OTOH, if that script did exist, then kudos to Feige and Marvel for killing it.

Ever more doubtful...

Marvel's Blade Writer Refutes Rumor Mahershala Ali Was "Fourth Lead" in Female-Led Reboot

Michael Starrbury says the vampire hunter was never 'the fourth lead' despite reports the [...]

comicbook.com

 

[Communicora]

Ever more doubtful...

Marvel's Blade Writer Refutes Rumor Mahershala Ali Was "Fourth Lead" in Female-Led Reboot

Michael Starrbury says the vampire hunter was never 'the fourth lead' despite reports the [...]

comicbook.com

Hmm

One of those writers, Michael Starrbury, has offered a comment amid speculation that Blade was to focus on Brielle Brooks, the half-human, half-vampire daughter of Blade.​

​

​

"I worked on a draft of this before the strike. Never saw a version where Blade was 4th lead or it was a 'narrative led by women and filled with life lessons' but I suppose a lot could have happened since I had anything to do with it. He was in 99% of the scripts I was a part of," Starrbury wrote on X (formerly Twitter). In a subsequent post, the Emmy-nominated When They See Us writer added: "Whatever is going on with Blade I'm hoping for the best. Some good folks are involved in that joint."​

​

Starrbury then added that Ali's Blade "was in almost every scene" while he was on board the project. "I don't know what happened but I'll just say I seriously doubt he was ever the 4th lead in any draft."​

I went to go read his tweets, but he deleted his account.

 

[Tha Realest]

One of the things that can affect The Marvels and Wish’s box office (or at least their appearances) is Journey to Bethlehem is doing one of those “gift a ticket” promotions.

 

[MisterPenguin]

One of the things that can affect The Marvels and Wish’s box office (or at least their appearances) is Journey to Bethlehem is doing one of those “gift a ticket” promotions.

Nah. Tix were bought but few claimed the free pre-bought tickets.

So, it artificially increased that movie's revenue... and that's it.

 

[Tha Realest]

Nah. Tix were bought but few claimed the free pre-bought tickets.

So, it artificially increased that movie's revenue... and that's it.

Is there a box office tracking methodology that captures “butts in seats” rather than ticket sales revenue?

 

[MisterPenguin]

Is there a box office tracking methodology that captures “butts in seats” rather than ticket sales revenue?

No, but plenty of sold out shows with pics of empty theaters.

 

[Phroobar]

Is there a box office tracking methodology that captures “butts in seats” rather than ticket sales revenue?

Why do butts in seats matter? The sales are the bottom line.

 

[Tha Realest]

Why do butts in seats matter? The sales are the bottom line.

I agree, but if someone is going to invent new ways of calculating a studio’s revenue, I’d like to know how it’s gauged.

 

[Phroobar]

I agree, but if someone is going to invent new ways of calculating a studio’s revenue, I’d like to know how it’s gauged.

What would a butt in seat mean? That it was a good movie? A lot of good movies put few butts in seats and via versa. Does that make Rocky Horror Picture Show a good movie since it has been running continuously since the 70s.

 

[Tha Realest]

What would a butt in seat mean? That it was a good movie? A lot of good movies put few butts in seats and via versa. Does that make Rocky Horror Picture Show a good movie since it has been running continuously since the 70s.

I’m not the one adding non-quantifiable asterisks to a film’s revenue. A ticket sold is a ticket sold. It may matter more to the movie theater, but most studios would prefer tickets sold vs not, and it matters not to them whether people are Deeply Engaged or staring at their phones the entire time.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

So I watched Five Nights at Freddy's last night on Peacock. I never played the game. The movie kinda dragged while they set up things up. ONLY 3 people murdered? I did not feel scared for any of the main characters maybe a little at the end.

My kid knows about the game said, "there are no murders, you just go through rooms" so in that aspect, its accurate?

The way it ended it looks like its set up for sequel and yes, I want to see it..... on streaming.

So , yes, this movie is cr@p and that and I think that was the expectation.

So Universal releases a cheap, cr@p movie and gets huge ROI.

Disney releases a beautiful, artistic, inclusive, expensive movie and loses 100 million.

Which is the better goal?

I don't know. A lot of last summer's Disney movies weren't exactly beautiful.

This may come as a surprise, but the cartoon fish was not realistic. Real fish look like…real fish. (You may not enjoy the live action Finding Nemo.)

Not all of us

I saw the first one…actually at pleasure island…laughed…walked out…

Never again since

I accidentally saw 15 minutes of Tokyo Drift in a hotel (actually on a WDW trip, I think) and I could not keep from giggling watching these guys try to turn their cars into my 70’s Big Wheel.

Then they made 400 more movies.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I barely consider this a real magazine anymore, but for what it’s worth:

Disney faces uphill battle with 'The Marvels'

Disney film "The Marvels" is set to be hit with a boycott as social media users call out a recent donation by the company.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I barely consider this a real magazine anymore, but for what it’s worth:

Disney faces uphill battle with 'The Marvels'

Disney film "The Marvels" is set to be hit with a boycott as social media users call out a recent donation by the company.

www.newsweek.com

I agree with you…

…it’s absolutely not a magazine anymore

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

‘The Marvels’ Tracking for $75M-$80M Domestic Debut in Latest Test of Box Office Superhero Fatigue

The sequel looks to come in notably behind the $153.4 million launch of 'Captain Marvel' in 2019.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I'd just like to remind people that the "pay-it-forward" gift ticket thing isn't a guarantee for success. So far its only worked for one movie. The current one being pushed by that same studio, "After Death", doesn't appear to be gaining the same traction in "pay-it-forward" tickets sold like its previous release.

So just like every movie released its a gamble even in the "pay-it-forward" space.

 

[Tha Realest]

I barely consider this a real magazine anymore, but for what it’s worth:

Disney faces uphill battle with 'The Marvels'

Disney film "The Marvels" is set to be hit with a boycott as social media users call out a recent donation by the company.

www.newsweek.com

This more than anything makes me want to buy a ticket to The Marvels.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That was from a couple of weeks ago, the $75M ship has sailed over the horizon towards “Sixty If They’re Lucky Cove”

My bad…they must have reposted it…think the tag was “3 days ago”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'd just like to remind people that the "pay-it-forward" gift ticket thing isn't a guarantee for success. So far its only worked for one movie. The current one being pushed by that same studio, "After Death", doesn't appear to be gaining the same traction in "pay-it-forward" tickets sold like its previous release.

So just like every movie released its a gamble even in the "pay-it-forward" space.

You wouldn’t be trying to “blame the audience” on the DL again for bad Disney press and results…would you?

Because that’s as old as some of us harping on math all day…

…except math is actually true