Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[_caleb]

Disney doesn't have anything playing well at the theaters right now, so we're all just rambling a bit. But...

Next week The Marvels opens with its $275 Million budget, and then we can talk about how huge its box office is and how audiences of predominantly teenage boys and young men naturally flock to inclusive stories of female empowerment.

Did you see the first film, Captain Marvel? What did you think of it?

 

[BuddyThomas]

Did you see the first film, Captain Marvel? What did you think of it?

I bet I can predict the response to this one.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Disney doesn't have anything playing well at the theaters right now, so we're all just rambling a bit.

"we"?!

 

[TP2000]

Just an FYI once again, ~45% of all MCU viewers are female. This was especially seen during the first Captain Marvel movie -

'Captain Marvel' Delivers a Massive $153M Domestic Opening and $455M Worldwide

www.boxofficemojo.com

So its not predominately male anymore (and likely never really was).

I would have to imagine a lot of those girls are on dates. They made the boyfriend sit through Taylor Swift or Barbie or Fill-In-Blank Chic Flick RomCom, and now it's payback time when a Marvel movie comes out.

But, I am sure there are some young women who are naturally and organically in the Marvel audience demo as well. At D23 Expo there were young ladies dressed up as characters and vamping around the convention showfloor, and pictures from ComicCon shows the same thing. It's not entirely male.

That said, comic book superhero movies naturally skew male. And if there's anything that a group of young guys want to see at the multiplex with their buddies as they fling Slurpees at each other, it's inclusive stories of female empowerment.

 

[TP2000]

Did you see the first film, Captain Marvel? What did you think of it?

No, I've never seen a Marvel movie in a theater. At least not that I remember and/or since Disney bought them 15 years ago.

But that has no bearing on the fact that The Marvels was made with a $275 Million budget and it comes out next week, and current projections are it will be opening to a $75 to $85 Million opening weekend domestically. It will be interesting to see how it does overall as we track it here in the Box Office thread.

 

[Disney Irish]

I would have to imagine a lot of those girls are on dates. They made the boyfriend sit through Taylor Swift or Barbie or Fill-In-Blank Chic Flick RomCom, and now it's payback time when a Marvel movie comes out.

But, I am sure there are some young women who are naturally and organically in the Marvel audience demo as well. At D23 Expo there were young ladies dressed up as characters and vamping around the convention showfloor, and pictures from ComicCon shows the same thing. It's not entirely male.

That said, comic book superhero movies naturally skew male. And if there's anything that a group of young guys want to see at the multiplex with their buddies as they fling Slurpees at each other, it's inclusive stories of female empowerment.

Do you have any data that shows that "a lot" of those girls were dragged there on dates, or is this just your assumption?

There is actual data that shows ~45% of MCU fans are female. So they are watching of their own free will and not just dragged there by boyfriends or significant others.

So while it "may" have skewed male in the past, that is no longer the case.

 

[DKampy]

Did you see the first film, Captain Marvel? What did you think of it?

He does not like movies unless it is Barbie ( and is blind to it’s feminist messaging)but is for some reason is enthralled with box office

 

[TP2000]

He does not like movies unless it is Barbie ( and is blind to it’s feminist messaging)but is for some reason is enthralled with box office

Barbie has been a feminist since at least 1974. This is not news to people of my generation. I'm not sure if you think I'm upset that Barbie can no longer only be a stewardess, a nurse, or a pretty date as her life's accomplishments, but I assure you that is most certainly not the case.

And I say that as a man who is still very proud of his mother for risking her own marriage to attend the ERA Conference in Houston in 1977 as part of the Washington State delegation. (Dad was not happy about how involved she was getting in Women's Lib, and just wanted her to write a check and stay out of it personally.)

Just out of curiosity... what year do you think it is? 2023? Or 1973? Because it sounds like you are stuck in the 70's.

 

[DKampy]

Barbie has been a feminist since at least 1974. This is not news to people of my generation. I'm not sure if you think I'm upset that Barbie can no longer only be a stewardess, a nurse, or a pretty date as her life's accomplishments, but I assure you that is most certainly not the case.

And I say that as a man who is still very proud of his mother for risking her own marriage to attend the ERA Conference in Houston in 1977 as part of the Washington State delegation. (Dad was not happy about how involved she was getting in Women's Lib, and just wanted her to write a check and stay out of it personally.)

Just out of curiosity... what year do you think it is? 2023? Or 1973? Because it sounds like you are stuck in the 70's.

The very last line in the movie was clearly with a feminist angle as well as the rest of the film… but I am not going round in circles on this… as I know we will never agree know this

 

[TP2000]

The very last line in the movie was clearly with a feminist angle as well as the rest of the film… but I am not going round in circles on this… as I know we will never agree know this

Huh? We agree that Barbie is a feminist icon. Although that opinion we share is not controversial in the 2020's, it's been culturally mainstream since Gerald Ford was in the White House. For the past 50 years Barbie can be anything she wants to be, and she always looks great doing it. What's more feminist than that? Barbie is simply FABULOUS.

Which is why I was all in on the movie the moment I saw the first trailer last June. I knew it would be good. It turned out to be even better than that.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Disney’s ‘Wish’ Eyes $50M Debut, Apple & Sony’s ‘Napoleon’ To Gallop To $24M Over Thanksgiving 5-Day: Box Office Early Look

Box Office: 'Wish' Eyes $50M Opening, 'Napoleon' $24M Over Thanksgiving

deadline.com

Let the feast begin: Thanksgiving releases and awards season contenders, Disney‘s Wish and Apple Original Films and Sony‘s Napoleon are set to open over the Wednesday to Sunday holiday stretch with respective grosses of $50M+ and $24M+. Both movies open on Thanksgiving eve, Nov. 22.

Wish, if it hits its projection, would rep the biggest original animated opening in the past six years since 2017’s Coco which did $72.9M over five days; also a Thanksgiving Disney release. Families and females are showing the best support at the moment. The song “This is the Thanks I Get” performed by Chris Pine dropped recently last week and has been spurring interest for the movie that stars Oscar winner Ariana DeBose.

 

[TP2000]

Disney’s ‘Wish’ Eyes $50M Debut, Apple & Sony’s ‘Napoleon’ To Gallop To $24M Over Thanksgiving 5-Day: Box Office Early Look

Box Office: 'Wish' Eyes $50M Opening, 'Napoleon' $24M Over Thanksgiving

deadline.com

I'm sorry.... what?!?

Disney is releasing a mega-budget $200 Million family animated movie on Thanksgiving weekend and over those 5 days it is now only projected to gross $50 Million at the domestic box office??? That has to be a typo. If that were to happen, Wish would be on track to lose $200 Million at the global box office.

That's got to be a typo of some sort. The five day Thanksgiving weekend haul for a movie that cost $200 Million should be at least $100 Million, if not $150 Million.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

If it has good reviews and word of mouth, it will have long legs

 

[Disney Analyst]

I'm sorry.... what?!?

Disney is releasing a mega-budget $200 Million family animated movie on Thanksgiving weekend and over those 5 days it is now only projected to gross $50 Million at the domestic box office??? That has to be a typo. If that were to happen, Wish would be on track to lose $200 Million at the global box office.

That's got to be a typo of some sort. The five day Thanksgiving weekend haul for a movie that cost $200 Million should be at least $100 Million, if not $150 Million.

As mentioned, this would still be the best opening gross for an original animated feature since 2017's Coco.

I don't know if any original animated film these days, a film not based on any IP, or a sequel of a previous hit, would hit the numbers you mentioned for opening weekend.

But I expect this to have good legs.

 

[TP2000]

As mentioned, this would still be the best opening gross for an original animated feature since 2017's Coco.

I don't know if any original animated film these days, a film not based on any IP, or a sequel of a previous hit, would hit the numbers you mentioned for opening weekend.

But I expect this to have good legs.

Well, let's hope.

I can't imagine why they would spend $200 Million on these films if they expect them to lose money at the box office.

 

[TP2000]

Disney’s ‘Wish’ Eyes $50M Debut, Apple & Sony’s ‘Napoleon’ To Gallop To $24M Over Thanksgiving 5-Day: Box Office Early Look

Box Office: 'Wish' Eyes $50M Opening, 'Napoleon' $24M Over Thanksgiving

deadline.com

Okay, as I suspected, this was a typo. Or very bad writing skills on display. Or no editor on staff. Or more likely, all three.

The box office projections just got posted a few minutes ago on Box Office Pro that this article was based on. But the $50 Million figure is just from it's first 3 days, not the entire 5 day Thanksgiving holiday mega-weekend.

The actual 5 day Thanksgiving weekend projection for Wish is an average of $72 Million. That's better, but still shockingly low. And those projections weakened by 7% since last week, so the momentum is not building. At least not yet.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ and SILENT NIGHT

This week's report takes a preliminary glance at the first weekend of 2023's final month, currently scheduled to see two wide releases during the usual post-Thanksgiving lull.

www.boxofficepro.com

 

[TP2000]

FYI, here's where the other Disney releases fare on this Box Office Pro forecast that was just released this afternoon.

All three of Disney's movies coming out in November have had weak box office projections ascribed to them, and the their trajectories have all been downward instead of upward. There appears to be little momentum or hype building for any of Disney's remaining movie releases for 2023. It will be interesting to see how they performed by New Year's Day.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ and SILENT NIGHT

This week's report takes a preliminary glance at the first weekend of 2023's final month, currently scheduled to see two wide releases during the usual post-Thanksgiving lull.

www.boxofficepro.com

 

[DKampy]

FYI, here's where the other Disney releases fare on this Box Office Pro forecast that was just released this afternoon.

All three of Disney's movies coming out in November have had weak box office projections ascribed to them, and the their trajectories have all been downward instead of upward. There appears to be little momentum or hype building for any of Disney's remaining movie releases for 2023. It will be interesting to see how they performed by New Year's Day.

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Long Range Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ and SILENT NIGHT

This week's report takes a preliminary glance at the first weekend of 2023's final month, currently scheduled to see two wide releases during the usual post-Thanksgiving lull.

www.boxofficepro.com

Anything original these days will not open to the numbers you expect it to… It will require legs… it’s been that way for awhile…even the first Frozen only opened to just over 50 million in it’s first 3 days of release

 

[Andrew C]

I'm sorry.... what?!?

Disney is releasing a mega-budget $200 Million family animated movie on Thanksgiving weekend and over those 5 days it is now only projected to gross $50 Million at the domestic box office??? That has to be a typo. If that were to happen, Wish would be on track to lose $200 Million at the global box office.

That's got to be a typo of some sort. The five day Thanksgiving weekend haul for a movie that cost $200 Million should be at least $100 Million, if not $150 Million.

It said Coco did $72.9 million over those 5 days in 2017...and Moana at $82 million.

 

[TP2000]

Anything original these days will not open to the numbers you expect it to… It will require legs… it’s been that way for awhile…even the first Frozen only opened to just over 50 million in it’s first 3 days of release

While I understand your point on the trials of doing original movies nowadays, the numbers are a bit off.

Adjusted for inflation from 2013, Frozen made $122 Million at the domestic box office its first Thanksgiving weekend.

Frozen opened wide on Thanksgiving weekend, 2013. The same Thanksgiving weekend opening calendar that Wish has.

Frozen made a total of $94 Million domestically by Sunday night of Thanksgiving weekend. November 27th was the day before Thanksgiving and Frozen's release date, the 28th was Thanksgiving Day, and then the usual Friday-Sunday weekend. Adjusted for inflation, that's $122 Million in 2023 dollars. The current box office projections discussed above show Wish coming it at barely half the total Frozen got over Thanksgiving weekend, 2013.

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