Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

It said Coco did $72.9 million over those 5 days in 2017...and Moana at $82 million.

Adjusted for inflation, those box office tallies in 2023 dollars would be...

Coco, 2017 = $92 Million
Moana, 2016 = $105 Million

Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2024

Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2024. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.

www.usinflationcalculator.com

 

[Disney Analyst]

Adjusted for inflation, those box office tallies in 2023 dollars would be...

Coco, 2017 = $92 Million
Moana, 2016 = $105 Million

Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2024

Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2024. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.

www.usinflationcalculator.com

Is there a calculator based on how audience behaviour and consumer spending habits may have changed from then to now?

 

[Tha Realest]

Is there a calculator based on how audience behaviour and consumer spending habits may have changed from then to now?

If there is, I sure hope the people that approve $200M+ budget used it!

 

[Disney Analyst]

If there is, I sure hope the people that approve $200M+ budget used it!

I mean the fact of the matter is most budgets now were approved and films in development long before current trends could be accounted for.

I would hope and suspect the industry will be pivoting for films being approved now.

 

[Tha Realest]

I mean the fact of the matter is most budgets now were approved and films in development long before current trends could be accounted for.

I would hope and suspect the industry will be pivoting for films being approved now.

It wasn’t publicly announced until January 2022. Plenty of time to course correct before substantial production occurred.

 

[Disney Analyst]

It wasn’t publicly announced until January 2022. Plenty of time to course correct before substantial production occurred.

I guarantee whatever budget was approved, and the development of the film, began long before early last year.

 

[Andrew C]

Adjusted for inflation, those box office tallies in 2023 dollars would be...

Coco, 2017 = $92 Million
Moana, 2016 = $105 Million

Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2024

Easily calculate how the buying power of the U.S. dollar has changed from 1913 to 2024. Get inflation rates and U.S. inflation news.

www.usinflationcalculator.com

Lightyear did 50 million on opening weekend in 2022....lol
Onward did 39 million in 2020...

Yeah...seems like a low aim even though these opened different weekends. I still have hopes for this movie though.

 

[DKampy]

Lightyear did 50 million on opening weekend in 2022....lol
Onward did 39 million in 2020...

Yeah...seems like a low aim even though these opened different weekends. I still have hopes for this movie though.

It will depend on word of mouth… if it’s good I expect Wish to have legs… Lightyear had horrible word of mouth

 

[Indy_UK]

I’m looking forward to seeing Wish. Only issue for Disney is that I get my cinema tickets for free so they won’t make anything from me… but the sentiment is there

 

[TP2000]

Is there a calculator based on how audience behaviour and consumer spending habits may have changed from then to now?

If such a calculator exists, I imagine its vacuum tubes exploded when it tried to calculate the $1.4 Billion that Barbie did, the $1.3 Billion that Super Mario did, the $950 Million from Oppenheimer, $845 Million for Guardians 3, $715 Million for Fast X, etc.

Good movies that the free market really wants to see do huge box office business in 2023.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I doubt it. But if such a calculator exists, I can only imagine its vacuum tubes exploded when it tried to calculate the $1.4 Billion that Barbie did, the $1.3 Billion that Super Mario did, the $950 Million from Oppenheimer, $845 Million for Guardians 3, $715 Million for Fast X, etc.

Good movies that the free market really wants to see do huge box office business in 2023.

Do some films having success = the industry is fine? Or are they outlier, event films, and in general the industry is depressed, with less tickets being sold than before?

 

[TP2000]

Do some films having success = the industry is fine? Or are they outlier, event films, and in general the industry is depressed, with less tickets being sold than before?

Those aren't little art films playing in college theaters doing that kind of business. Those are big budget tentpole films from major studios with giant marketing machines behind them aimed squarely at middle class America.

Are you suggesting that Wish, the much hyped $200 Million family animated movie from Walt Disney Studios opening on Thanksgiving weekend to celebrate the 100th Anniversary of an iconic American entertainment empire, is not an "event film"?

I can't think of a scenario that says "Event Film!" more than what Wish had to work with, can you?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I mean the fact of the matter is most budgets now were approved and films in development long before current trends could be accounted for.

I would hope and suspect the industry will be pivoting for films being approved now.

I watched a really good YouTube video this morning that was discussing theater struggles and this was essentially his theory… specifically the idea of blockbusters, bloated budgets, and unrealistic expectations.

It started with how blockbusters (absolutely must see movies) used to be a very rare occurrence, a movie or 2 every year or 2 would reach that status, then it became a couple movies a year, now half the movies heading to the theaters are billed as blockbusters, he thought this was creating fatigue and highlighted the unlikelihood that most people will go to the theater every month to see the next “blockbuster”. He felt 3 or 4 must see “blockbusters” a year was probably the most the general public could support.

Then he talked about how Marvel, animated hits like Frozen, remakes like B&tB and Aladdin, the Jurassic Park series, the the HP series, etc made the billion dollar box office (adjusted for inflation) feel like the new norm and how studios started approving larger and larger budgets in search of the next billion dollar return. He mentioned several times how ridiculous it is a movie can make $500, $600, even $700 million and lose money.

He was expecting a serious decrease in budgets because he thinks unrealistic expectations, and the associated budgets, are the #1 problem with movies struggling today.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Those aren't little art films playing in college theaters doing that kind of business. Those are big budget tentpole films from major studios with giant marketing machines behind them aimed squarely at middle class America.

Are you suggesting that Wish, the much hyped $200 Million family animated movie from Walt Disney Studios opening on Thanksgiving weekend to celebrate the 100th Anniversary of an iconic American entertainment empire is not an "event film"???

I can't think of a scenario that says "Event Film!" more than what Wish had to work with, can you?

I'm not picking out any film in general, just trying to look at the industry at large.

How is the industry faring? Are there a handful of event films doing well, and the rest underperforming? Even with the event films, for the money they earn are ticket sales equivalent to 2019, or are there less tickets sold, at more expensive (higher ticket cost) / premium screen price?

I am curious if you have an actual sense of the industry tends, versus "well these films did well, so everything is normal and Disney sucks now".

 

[TP2000]

Lightyear did 50 million on opening weekend in 2022....lol
Onward did 39 million in 2020...

Yeah...seems like a low aim even though these opened different weekends. I still have hopes for this movie though.

Onward should get a complete pass as it was released on March 6th, 2020

But Lightyear is a valid comparison, even though it's Pixar. Strange World is the last movie to be released from Walt Disney Animation Studios, so it's a more fair comparison for the studio. Here's what those opening weekends looked like, on their way to losing hundreds of millions of dollars combined at the box office for Disney...

Obviously Wish will not do as disastrously as Strange World did. That failure was historical in nature, and ranks up there with Ishtar or West Side Story '22 as a money losing offering.

But the comparison to Lightyear is more accurate financially. If Wish only gets the same $50 Million opening weekend that Lightyear got, and thus only has $220 Million or so in global box office six weeks later, that would mean Wish would lose about $180 Million for Disney.

Wish simply needs to overperform on current projections its opening weekend, and then have good word of mouth and have legs that last until Christmas. Otherwise, it's losing money. Perhaps a great deal of money.

 

[TP2000]

I am curious if you have an actual sense of the industry tends, versus "well these films did well, so everything is normal and Disney sucks now".

I don't have a sense of industry trends, as I'm not in the industry and don't follow financials for Paramount, Warners, etc.

I remember a month or two ago we tallied up all the 2023 movies from the five biggest Hollywood studios, and Disney had lost the most money of them so far.

So far in 2023, Disney has lost about $800 Million at the box office. They only have 3 movies left; The Marvels, Next Goal Wins, and Wish. Will those three films make money and start to whittle the $800 Million loss down, or will they add to that current $800 Million loss and send it higher?

Is there any studio out there that has lost more than $800 Million at the box office like Disney has this year?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Okay I found some statistics, based on a USAToday article.

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary 1995 to 2024

Overall movie market summary for each year 1995 to 2024

www.the-numbers.com

I believe the graph on the main page estimates what 2023 could end up as, which is roughly 894 million tickets sold, and a domestic box office of 9.4 billion.

Based on data up to week 42, this is where 2023 stands right now:

Total Box Office Gross: $7,592,231,361
Tickets Sold: 721,009,408
Average Ticket Price: $10.53

2019 was:

Total Box Office Gross: $11,268,976,811
Tickets Sold: 1,230,237,325
Average Ticket Price: $9.16


Can someone with a better brain than mine make heads or tails of this?

 

[TP2000]

I watched a really good YouTube video this morning that was discussing theater struggles and this was essentially his theory… specifically the idea of blockbusters, bloated budgets, and unrealistic expectations.

It started with how blockbusters (absolutely must see movies) used to be a very rare occurrence, a movie or 2 every year or 2 would reach that status, then it became a couple movies a year, now half the movies heading to the theaters are billed as blockbusters, he thought this was creating fatigue and highlighted the unlikelihood that most people will go to the theater every month to see the next “blockbuster”. He felt 3 or 4 must see “blockbusters” a year was probably the most the general public could support.

Then he talked about how Marvel, animated hits like Frozen, remakes like B&tB and Aladdin, the Jurassic Park series, the the HP series, etc made the billion dollar box office (adjusted for inflation) feel like the new norm and how studios started approving larger and larger budgets in search of the next billion dollar return. He mentioned several times how ridiculous it is a movie can make $500, $600, even $700 million and lose money.

He was expecting a serious decrease in budgets because he thinks unrealistic expectations, and the associated budgets, are the #1 problem with movies struggling today.

Interesting, and seems to make sense.

I have long thought that Disney and other studios have tons of white collar fat that needs to be cut. With AI looking to be able to replace humans in Communications and HR and other administrative roles, not to mention the changes and efficiencies AI will bring to creative departments, there's a lot of people working in Hollywood that probably won't have a job in that industry a year or two from now.

That, and the ridiculous amounts of money A Listers get to make movies that then lose hundreds of Millions of dollars, could save a lot of money. Slash the celeb salaries and lay off a lot of white collar cubicle folks, and then you can spend $75 Million on a tentpole movie again and make a tidy profit with "only" a $400 Million box office run.

As it is now, this current business model is entirely unsustainable for Disney and others. It can no longer continue this way.

 

[Tha Realest]

Okay I found some statistics, based on a USAToday article.

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary 1995 to 2024

Overall movie market summary for each year 1995 to 2024

www.the-numbers.com

I believe the graph on the main page estimates what 2023 could end up as, which is roughly 894 million tickets sold, and a domestic box office of 9.4 billion.

Based on data up to week 42, this is where 2023 stands right now:

Total Box Office Gross: $7,592,231,361
Tickets Sold: 721,009,408
Average Ticket Price: $10.53

2019 was:

Total Box Office Gross: $11,268,976,811
Tickets Sold: 1,230,237,325
Average Ticket Price: $9.16


Can someone with a better brain than mine make heads or tails of this?

I think one explanation is 1) theatrical window has stifled legs /audiences 2) increasing streaming options more enticing than theatrical releases, and 3) increases of average ticket prices account for average increase.

Honestly? Doesn’t look that bad considering 2023 are numbers to date (without Nov and Dec) and 2019 includes full year

 

[Andrew C]

Onward should get a complete pass as it was released on March 6th, 2020,

But Lightyear is a valid comparison, even though it's Pixar. Strange World is the last movie to be released from Walt Disney Animation Studios, so it's a more fair comparison for the studio. Here's what those opening weekends looked like, on their way to losing hundreds of millions of dollars combined at the box office for Disney...

View attachment 752344

Obviously Wish will not do as disastrously as Strange World did. That failure was historical in nature, and ranks up there with Ishtar or West Side Story '22 as a money losing offering.

But the comparison to Lightyear is more accurate financially. If Wish only gets the same $50 Million opening weekend that Lightyear got, and thus only has $220 Million or so in global box office six weeks later, that would mean Wish would lose about $180 Million for Disney.

Wish simply needs to overperform on current projections its opening weekend, and then have good word of mouth and have legs that last until Christmas. Otherwise, it's losing money. Perhaps a great deal of money.

Time for a Look Who’s Talking reboot.