Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

To your first thought wouldn't that be more telling of a small jump and tje drop for HM rapidly continuing if MI made more money this weekend and played in less theaters than HM? It's not about the pop deep into the run, what is telling is the drop into this soon of HMs when it was already falling fast.

No its not telling at all, as you're making assumptions without the rest of the weekend information. Pops from one week to another happen, especially deep into a movies run. Domestically since opening HM made more money daily than MI:7 did, until Friday. One movie doing slightly better than another movie for one day is not a trend.

Trying to compare the "floppiness" of them is silly.

 

[Disney Irish]

After awhile it feels any excuse to rally against Disney… you take it with glee

I agree, its starting to come across as petty in my opinion.

 

[celluloid]

Maybe the pop you see is a tiny result of that for MI. Perhaps too little too late, but who knows, we could see if Gran Tourismo does not do much and MI goes back to fith place and earns it some more dough to lesson the blow that it has had.

Not comparing floppiness. Comparing a drop to one not dropping, but the opposite.

Believe me, there is no comparison. HM is not a good movie for the consensus and its loss is far worse than many other releases this year.

If it were like a Hocus Pocus situation at least we would say Hey HM earned 150 million at the box office that is bad but one day maybe it will find the rest of its audience and those that love it will support it. And by the time it gets to home video watching/streaming in the 21st century, it will make its green and be an annual tradition.

There are not enough Halloweens in our lifetimes for that to likely happen to this one.

 

[Disney Irish]

Maybe the pop you see is a tiny result of that for MI. Perhaps too little too late, but who knows, we could see if Gran Tourismo does not do much and MI goes back to fith place and earns it some more dough to lesson the blow that it has had.

There is a lot of "what ifs" in that sentiment. MI:7 will likely losing more theaters next weekend, making this "what if" scenario a lot more difficult.

Not comparing floppiness. Comparing a drop to one not dropping, but the opposite.

That is exactly what you're doing when comparing the "drops".

Believe me, there is no comparison. HM is not a good movie for the consensus and its loss is far worse than many other releases this year.

Well compared to the movie you're comparing it to HM is likely to lose less money than MI:7. As MI:7 looks to be close to a $200M loss.

If it were like a Hocus Pocus situation at least we would say Hey HM earned 150 million at the box office that is bad but one day maybe it will find the rest of its audience and those that love it will support it. And by the time it gets to home video watching/streaming in the 21st century, it will make its green and be an annual tradition.

There are not enough Halloweens in our lifetimes for that to happen to this one.

There is no facts that this statement is even close to true. As you do not know how much HM will make post-theatrical, especially when D+ financing comes into play. Not to mention digital purchase, and replays on Freeform and other places during Halloween.

Its fine if this is your opinion, but then don't deride others when they give their opinions as not having facts.

 

[celluloid]

There is no facts that this statement is even close to true. As you do not know how much HM will make post-theatrical, especially when D+ financing comes into play. Not to mention digital purchase, and replays on Freeform and other places during Halloween.

Wait, I thought this was not the court of law ;-)

And it is reasonable common sense.

Do you think Disney has made a profit on the last 2003 HM movie flop yet? If it was something that was a great cult classic for them, they would not have remade this only 20 years later. Has it found its audience? Now look at this remake performing even worse. People have to think it is a decent movie first as a consensus. Personal opinions about Hocus Pocus aside, it has always had that from the general audience and got to its budget number at the box office to hit green later.

You honestly, can tell me that you think this HM remake, that cost 157 million plus its millions in marketing and has had a low reception critically as well as being a film that made less than the Eddie Murphy original will, will be a cult following those profits in a reasonable amount of time?

Can you honestly see why I would say that is unlikely?

Or do you just have to be difficult?

 

[Disney Irish]

Wait, I thought this was not the court of law ;-)

Again pot meet kettle, you call posters out for doing the very things you do yourself.

As I said its fine if this is your opinion, but then don't deride or scold others when they give their opinions as not having facts. Otherwise you'll be called out for the same.

And it is reasonable common sense.

Do you think Disney has made a profit on the last 2003 HM movie flop yet? If it was something that was a great cult classic for them, they would not have remade this only 20 years later. Has it found its audience? People have to think it is a decent movie first as a consensus. Personal opinions about Hocus Pocus aside, it has always had that from the general audience and got to its budget number at the box office to hit green later.

You honestly, can tell me that you think this HM remake, that cost 157 million plus its millions in marketing and has had a low reception critically as well as being a film that made less than the Eddie Murphy original will, will be a cult following those profits in a reasonable amount of time?

Can you honestly see why I would say that is unlikely?

Or do you just have to be difficult?

First I have no idea how it will do post-theatrical, we haven't gotten to that point yet. I have an idea, an option, on how it will do but its just an opinion.

Second, HM 2003 is already in rotation as a Halloween staple, such as the Freeform 31 night of Halloween, and has been for years. So yeah its likely already made back its budget, and turned a profit long ago.

Lastly, All I can say is that if it finds its audience and gets put into rotation as a Halloween staple like Hocus Pocus has then yes it can makes its "green" as you call it. And in reality, it'll be put into the Freeform 31 nights of Halloween, just like the 2003 HM has been. So with advertisers and such buying blocks during those 31 days instead of for individual movies yeah both the 2003 and 2023 versions have and will likely make its "green".

 

[celluloid]

Again pot meet kettle, you call posters out for doing the very things you do yourself.

As I said its fine if this is your opinion, but then don't deride or scold others when they give their opinions as not having facts. Otherwise you'll be called out for the same.



First I have no idea how it will do post-theatrical, we haven't gotten to that point yet. I have an idea, an option, on how it will do but its just an opinion.

Second, HM 2003 is already in rotation as a Halloween staple, such as the Freeform 31 night of Halloween, and has been for years.

Lastly, All I can say is that if it finds its audience and gets put into rotation as a Halloween staple like Hocus Pocus as then yes it can makes its "green" as you call it. And in reality, it'll be put into the Freeform 31 nights of Halloween, just like the 2003 HM has been. So with advertisers and such buying blocks during those 31 days instead of for individual movies yeah both the 2003 and 2023 versions have and will make its "green".

I never sated it was a fact that it will not. I said it is not likely to have enough Halloween in our lifetimes to make a profit. We will stick by your rules of its not a court of law.

And heck yeah HM is a larger box office by the numbers loss than MI. With all the we don't know rule of thumb things aside.

The basic fact that 160 plus for MIs final run plus its international number(again ignoring the take and going by just the numbers for both) surpassed its budget.

HM domestically and internationally is not going to go that way.

That is not even counting the consensus that MI7 is a good MI movie. Whereas general movie goers have not had that consensus about the HM.

The numbers are the numbers. HM flopped way harder than MI, even with ratio of spending. if HM made 160 million in overseas box office, you may have a point.

Putting it on a rotation that has 31 nights of Halloween, particulary as TV is dying is not going to earn it a profit. It lessons a loss.

Read again what was said.

Do you really think it is likely, within a reasonable amount of time, our lifetimes that this 157 million dollar flop turns green profit in cult following?

You should be able to admit that it is not likely. I am not even saying say it is impossible, but not likely. It just comes across like you wanted to be oppositional because I stated something you wish was not true.


Saying it is in rotation on 31 nights of a channel Disney owns is not really a glowing endorsement. They have 31 nights to show family Halloween movies they choose to exploit.

 

[flynnibus]

Disney has spent and lost 'billions' though on parks, they are just covered up by being part of a larger division.

I mean Shanghai cost 6 billion dollars, there was no money made on that spend. Now it generates money and it's an asset they continue to have. Just like WDW is or DLR is. Both of which are assuredly re-sellable for many multiples of what they originally cost and have made many multiples for the company since.

This is a weird take. Shanghi was 6 billion dollars... but it's not a 'one small window of monetized use' like a theatrical release. It's a spend on a product expected to produce for DECADES, and is collecting ticket sales every single day for decades.

Disney + has now cost the company 11 billion dollars. Assuming we're nearing the end of the line. Let's just call it 12.5 for pessimism. Will the product, essentially built from the ground up as a park would be, be worth all of that spend?

I mean, I'll point you to the valuation of Hulu or the market cap of Netflix and let you decide if the meagre Capex on D+ was actually worth it.

The 11bil accumulated losses in D+ are not capex. You're really mixing and matching very different things.

The 11bill accumulated here is operating losses of spend vs revenue. Their spend covers all kinds of activities, and their revenue has been intentionally suppressed as they went with a promo heavy launch (to drive the metric of favor at the time... sub count).

 

[Disney Irish]

I never sated it was a fact that it will not. I said it is not likely to have enough Halloween in our lifetimes to make a profit. We will stick by your rules of its not a court of law.

And heck yeah HM is a larger box office by the numbers loss than MI. With all the we don't know rule of thumb things aside.

The basic fact that 160 plus for MIs final run plus its international number(again ignoring the take and going by just the numbers for both) surpassed its budget.

HM domestically and internationally is not going to go that way.

That is not even counting the consensus that MI7 is a good MI movie. Whereas general movie goers have not had that consensus about the HM.

The numbers are the numbers. HM flopped way harder than MI, even with ratio of spending. if HM made 160 million in overseas box office, you may have a point.

Putting it on a rotation that has 31 nights of Halloween, particulary as TV is dying is not going to earn it a profit. It lessons a loss.

Read again what was said.

Do you really think it is likely, within a reasonable amount of time, our lifetimes that this 157 million dollar flop turns green profit in cult following?

You should be able to admit that it is not likely. I am not even saying say it is impossible, but not likely. It just comes across like you wanted to be oppositional because I stated something you wish was not true.


Saying it is in rotation on 31 nights of a channel Disney owns is not really a glowing endorsement. They have 31 nights to show family Halloween movies they choose to exploit.

Are you feeling alright? I know you're trying to prove "Disney worse" here, but you're really going off the deep end on this one.

So throwing out all the "Hollywood math" for a second like you have. MI:7 is barely hitting $500M WW this weekend. Not sure how you think its surpassed its budget let alone its marketing costs when you account for the split with theaters. There is no way its surpassed its budget at this point, and it won't at least not during its theatrical run. Sorry but you can't just ignore the splits to try to prove a point.

As for HM and its post-theatrical, yes in my opinion given its many potential for revenue source it'll earn a profit. Now not going to state how much that profit will be or long it will take, but I think it'll turn a profit eventually.

 

[erasure fan1]

Well compared to the movie you're comparing it to HM is likely to lose less money than MI:7. As MI:7 looks to be close to a $200M loss.

Mission impossible will probably lose more than 200mil in my opinion. But if Haunted mansion doesn't see an uptick pretty soon, it's probably going to lose more in my opinion. I don't see it gaining any theater love. But I would bet it does well on stream. I know a lot of people just waiting for it to come to D+.

 

[celluloid]

Are you feeling alright? I know you're trying to prove "Disney worse" here, but you're really going off the deep end on this one.

So throwing out all the "Hollywood math" for a second like you have. MI:7 is barely hitting $500M WW this weekend. Not sure how you think its surpassed its budget let alone its marketing costs when you account for the split with theaters. There is no way its surpassed its budget at this point, and it won't at least not during its theatrical run. Sorry but you can't just ignore the splits to try to prove a point.

As for HM and its post-theatrical, yes in my opinion given its many potential for revenue source it'll earn a profit. Now not going to state how much that profit will be or long it will take, but I think it'll turn a profit eventually.

Whoa, I never said that. Again presuming. You said don't compare the "floppiness" and its not comparable.

HM flopped way harder.

Combined just by the numbers it has gone further past its cost in the raw numbers. Not that it profited. Two different things

MI cost 293. It is nearing 500 Million Worldwide

HM cost 157 Million It will not get to 200 worldwide.

Its not even close, even with ratio. HM bombed harder.

Neither made money, but oh boy did HM lose more.

I guess I should make it simple:

It is like if you went to the slots and bet 100 bucks and walked away with 60 bucks. That is how Mission Impossible did. That sucks doesen't it?

But what would suck more is putting in 60 bucks and walking away with 10 bucks. That is Haunted Mansion 2023.

 

[Disney Irish]

Mission impossible will probably lose more than 200mil in my opinion. But if Haunted mansion doesn't see an uptick pretty soon, it's probably going to lose more in my opinion. I don't see it gaining any theater love. But I would bet it does well on stream. I know a lot of people just waiting for it to come to D+.

I put HM between $150-175M loss personally when the final numbers come in.

It depends on how long it stays in theaters, its only 16 days out right now. Possible it goes deep into September and be swept up in the pre-Halloween viewings.

 

[celluloid]

I put HM between $150-175M loss personally when the final numbers come in.

It depends on how long it stays in theaters, its only 16 days out right now. Possible it goes deep into September and be swept up in the pre-Halloween viewings.

Thinking HM will be playing in many theaters in mid September is some next level optimism right there.

 

[Disney Irish]

Whoa, I never said that. Again presuming. You said don't compare the "floppiness" and its not comparable.

HM flopped way harder.

Combined just by the numbers it has gone further past its cost in the raw numbers. Not that it profited. Two different things

MI cost 293. It is nearing 500 Million Worldwide

HM cost 157 Million It will not get to 200 worldwide.

Its not even close, even with ratio. HM bombed harder.

Neither made money, but oh boy did HM lose more.

I guess I should make it simple:

It is like if you went to the slots and bet 100 bucks and walked away with 60 bucks. That is how Mission Impossible did. That sucks doesen't it?

But what would suck more is putting in 60 bucks and walking away with 10 bucks. That is Haunted Mansion 2023.

My friend we are obviously not going to see eye-to-eye on this. As you're throwing away the splits and trying to compare raw numbers, and trying to make analogies that honestly don't work in this context.

So lets just agree to disagree.

 

[erasure fan1]

I put it between $150-175M loss personally when the final numbers come in.

It depends on how long it stays in theaters, its only 16 days out right now. Possible it goes deep into September and be swept up in the pre-Halloween viewings.

If it can stay in theaters long enough, I'd say it could see a bit of a Halloween kick. I just have a feeling that Disney is going to want to cut bait and focus on a D+ Halloween push, since it has gone over so poorly so far. And once they're in D+ mode, that will kill any chance for an uptick in my opinion.

 

[celluloid]

If it can stay in theaters long enough, I'd say it could see a bit of a Halloween kick. I just have a feeling that Disney is going to want to cut bait and focus on a D+ Halloween push, since it has gone over so poorly so far. And once they're in D+ mode, that will kill any chance for an uptick in my opinion.

I would not expect the movie to be in theaters much after Labor Day if it makes it much to that.

I mean, I know Blue Beetle and Gran Tourismo are not likely to be hits, but they will still take up enough of that audience where HM will be far down the list.

School is back in session for many and more and more in the next three weeks, the weekdays get weak fast.

 

[Disney Irish]

If it can stay in theaters long enough, I'd say it could see a bit of a Halloween kick. I just have a feeling that Disney is going to want to cut bait and focus on a D+ Halloween push, since it has gone over so poorly so far. And once they're in D+ mode, that will kill any chance for an uptick in my opinion.

Possible, but that would mean pulling before 45 days, which Disney hasn't really done this year with many if any films that I recall.

 

[celluloid]

Possible, but that would mean pulling before 45 days, which Disney hasn't really done this year with many if any films that I recall.

No other Disney films this year have dropped like this one.

At a certain point, it is not so much that it is pulled. Is that so many theaters won't even screen it when there is money to be collected from others.

Besides the 20 theater locations, you won't be finding much HM by mid September, if at all.

 

[erasure fan1]

Possible, but that would mean pulling before 45 days, which Disney hasn't really done this year with many if any films that I recall.

I know Disney is trying to not condition people to wait for D+. But HM just seems like a good opportunity with how poorly it's done in the theater. The Halloween push for D+ seems to be its best bet for a chance at a 2nd life. If it hits D+ in November or something, I don't see it making any real noise.

 

[Disney Irish]

No other Disney films this year have dropped like this one.

At a certain point, it is not so much that it is pulled. Is that so many theaters won't even screen it when there is money to be collected from others.

Besides the 20 theater locations, you won't be finding much HM by mid September, if at all.

You do realize that HM is still releasing in other countries, right?

I mean Japan doesn't have its release until September 1st.

So I can't see Disney pulling it the same weekend "Labor Day" its releasing in a major market.

But I guess we'll see.