Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Apologize, apparently you are talking about Elemental, I though you were saying TLM (cross conversations).

Then it’s $200M production and probably $100M marketing and distribution.

Elemental is going to lose a significant amount of money, not to mention compared to its original investment goals, which is what is important to TWDC.

“Flop, disaster, horrible investment, etc” - feel free to debate the nomenclature, doesn’t change the financial reality.

It’s been stronger than initial release…which was a complete disaster?

Profit from first run? No. But will get somewhat closer to break even than the others

Mermaid is around $100 mil short on the Low end…because the minimum budget and marketing costs reported puts the break even at $640. Minimum.

And it’s done. But did the budget or marketing costs actually run higher? Definitely at least possible.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Apologize, apparently you are talking about Elemental, I though you were saying TLM (cross conversations).

Then it’s $200M production and probably $100M marketing and distribution.

Elemental is going to lose a significant amount of money, not to mention compared to its original investment goals, which is what is important to TWDC.

“Flop, disaster, horrible investment, etc” - feel free to debate the nomenclature, doesn’t change the financial reality.

Elemental is not going to lose money.

 

[celluloid]

Nothing is guaranteed my friend.

Market conditions change, this can result in many unknowns that end up changing that return. That 2% profit is a lot of time welcome. Sure everyone would love a lot more, but again never guaranteed.

Yes. This has nothing to do with what I said. Almost guaranteed. Your friend was honest. But every single time they get you only 2 percent profit and.the other times they lost 80 of your 100 dollars.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To the extent there is “guaranteed profit,” it is guaranteed because studios are structured to profit from content across multiple pipelines. TLM will produce this profit. If what you mean is “guaranteed box office,” that’s a naively delusional thing to expect from Hollywood and always has been.

And the demand for constant “company growth” is a wonderful way to kill a company.

It has not produced any profit

And you know that the subscription fees,ads and product sales are meant to cover and produce in those segments…

That’s why they are in different segments.

Mermaid may resurface again. Then you may have a better “original movie ended up paying off” argument.

But as an aside…walked though the Disney store junk isle yesterday at target and under the sea was playing…
Do I misremembered…or did they original not have a Beyoncé knockoff voice singing the chorus high pitched behind the crab in duet?

Is that the movie version?

 

[celluloid]

To the extent there is “guaranteed profit,” it is guaranteed because studios are structured to profit from content across multiple pipelines. TLM will produce this profit. If what you mean is “guaranteed box office,” that’s a naively delusional thing to expect from Hollywood and always has been.

And the demand for constant “company growth” is a wonderful way to kill a company.

It's delusional to keep saying guaranteed. I said an analogy where a friend says almost guranteed. And I never said just at the box office.

So which is those that argue with obvious facts has the truth?

We have one poster @Disney Irish saying there are no guarantees.

The other guy @Casper Gutman saying there is always a guarantee.

And in my analogy I said a friend that borrowed money said it's an almost.l because he feels educated in calculations.

For example, the latest Haunted Mansion movie will take so long to profit that the friends in the analogy (the people wanting a return on their investment in question) will be dead before they see a return on investment.

Speaking of delusional thinking.

You are the guy that said there are no longer movie stars.


And all of it is moot anyway, for at the end of the day

Would you be stoked to spend two years and 100 dollars to get 2 back?

 

[Disstevefan1]

The numbers says 424m worldwide as of today.
Box office Mojo says 425m worldwide as of today.

Where do you get your numbers?

Sorry I think you are talking TLM and I was talking Elemental.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Elemental is not going to lose money.

We read the quote…the math is a little fuzzy…but maybe?

Streaming revenue and product sales are not box office profits - again - because it’s just not how the movie business has gone until 2023 when all of a sudden Disney started bombing movies.

Nobody here would entertain that for universal or paramount or sony…so let’s stop giving it oxygen here too.

Or how about this:
Are we not going to say that good dinosaur, prince of Persia, Lone Ranger, John Carter or solo didn’t flop?

No…so let’s not try to do it now for the glory of our lord and master, Ceo.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Penguin, out of genuine curiosity and not doubting you, but could you cite a specific source for the formula, specifically one that explains its usage by the trades?

How much money does a movie need to make to be profitable?

If you really liked a particular movie, and you're hoping it made enough money to warrant a sequel, then the wealth of box-office news can be confusing.

gizmodo.com

How Do Movie Theaters Make Money?

Ever wondered how do movie theaters make money? We take a look at costs that need to be managed effectively to ensure cinema is viable today.

www.musicgateway.com

Studio and Theater​

Arrangements differ.​

​

However, the movie studio usually gets 60% of the proceeds from American box offices or anywhere from 20% – 40% overseas.​

​

This depends on the film distribution arrangements, agreements, and other costs associated with foreign distribution. Theaters receive the remaining 40%.​

How Much Does A Movie Need To Be Profitable?

A movie’s performance gets plenty of buzz these days. Not just how well it does with critics, but how well it is doing in the…

www.slashgear.com

As far as 'the trades go,' just find an article that lists what a bunch of movies 'made,' and their figures match "the rule of thumb." That's what Deadline uses when a studio isn't whispering into their ear about supposedly actual figures.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's delusional to keep saying guaranteed. I said an analogy where a friend says almost guranteed. And I never said just at the box office.

So which is those that argue the truth.

We have one poster @Disney Irish saying there are no guarantees.

The other guy @Casper Gutman saying there is always a guarantee.

And in my analogy I said a friend that borrowed money said it's an almost.l because he feels educated in calculations.

For example, the latest Haunted Mansion movie will take so long to profit that the friends in the analogy (the shareholders in question) will be dead before they see a return on investment.

Speaking of delusional thinking.

You are the guy that said there are no longer movie stars.


And all of it is moot anyway, for at the end of the day

Would you be stoked to spend two years and 100 dollars to get 2 back?

Im pretty sure Margot Robbie is a big @$$ movie Star these days

And if Deadpool 3 is good…the cult of Ryan Reynolds is gonna grow too.

And If they stop dancing and make the move…a $1.4 mil captain America relaunch with Chris Evans might get him another job or 3

Maybe there are just “newer movie stars” now?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Elemental is not going to lose money.

Given an infinite amount of time Elemental will make an infinite amount of money.

 

[celluloid]

We read the quote…the math is a little fuzzy…but maybe?

Streaming revenue and product sales are not box office profits - again - because it’s just not how the movie business has gone until 2023 when all of a sudden Disney started bombing movies.

Nobody here would entertain that for universal or paramount or sony…so let’s stop giving it oxygen here too.

Or how about this:
Are we not going to say that good dinosaur, prince of Persia, Lone Ranger, John Carter or solo didn’t flop?

No…so let’s not try to do it now for the glory of our lord and master, Ceo.

Exactly. The streaming logic is bent here. Some of the people you are responding to here said you are responding to could not agree that Cocaine Bear was a hit when it nearly doubled it's bjdget in domestic box office. If that were the case, than streaming really.had Universal knock it out of the park.

It's a clear bias.

As you said. Disney Plus was not.designed to save box office bombs because it can't even sustain itself and can definitely not earn profit on multiple millions of losses released each year. It can narrow a red line so you are.down 49 instead of 80 million, but it won't Haunted Mansion into Pirates.

 

[celluloid]

Im pretty sure Margot Robbie is a big @$$ movie Star these days

And if Deadpool 3 is good…the cult of Ryan Reynolds is gonna grow too.

And If they stop dancing and make the move…a $1.4 mil captain America relaunch with Chris Evans might get him another job or 3

Maybe there are just “newer movie stars” now?

The fact that anyone can say the age of movie stars is dead. It's the opposite. We have so dang many of them at once. The being famous because their famous is stronger than ever. The person was not arguing talent either, but bankability.

I know Guardians of the Galaxy could have saved so much money as well as Jurassic World of they just would have recast Pratt early on.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The fact that anyone can say the age of.mkvkw stars is dead. It's the opposite. We have so dang many of them at once. The being famous because their famous is stronger than ever. The person was not arguing talent either, but bankability.

I know Guardians of the Galaxy could have saved so much money as well as Jurassic World of they just would have recast Pratt early on.

At least Guardians made money. Budgets are less of an issue when a movie actually makes money at the box office.

 

[celluloid]

At least Guardians made money. Budgets are less of an issue when a movie actually makes money at the box office.

It was their one money maker.(still under performed to their liking)

Luckily it had everything going for it just to pull it off as their likely only gross that big this year unless Wish knocks it out of the park.

James Gunn made good films with willing ensemble cast.
It was the finale. It even had a well.done Christmas special end of last year and a great release date. It was the last crusade.
That's one. That friend came.througj that time and after giving him 100 dollars and two.uears.came.back to you with like 140. But that friend who did good on this is not likely to.come around awhile. You are stuck with friends who can get you the 2 dollars over 100 for awhile.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It was their one money maker.

Luckily it had everything going for it just to pull it off as their likely only gross that big this year unless Wish knocks it out of the park.

James Gunn made good.fioms.witj ensemble cast.
It was the finale. It even had a well.done Christmas special end of last year and a great release date. It was the last crusade.
That's one. That friend came.througj that time and after giving him 100 dollars and two.uears.came.back to you with like 140. But that friend who did good on this is not likely to.come around awhile. You are stuck with friends who can get you the 2 dollars over 100 for awhile.

Loved the Christmas special and will watch it every year.

I am sad they made it a finale, they should have left it open ended.

 

[celluloid]

Loved the Christmas special and will watch it every year.

I am sad they made it a finale, they should have left it open ended.

They do if you count text of "....will return" at the end but it does not mean anything anymore except for maybe hopeful character series for Disney Plus.

It had a great run and closure.

 

[doctornick]

Loved the Christmas special and will watch it every year.

I am sad they made it a finale, they should have left it open ended.

I feel like it was left "open ended" enough that they could easily make more if they wanted. At the very least with the "new" team or with side adventures for the people who went off on their own.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

A lot of posters here seem pretty confident in their numbers, one said just the other day Elemental was going to lose over 100 million. Now the Pixar/Disney guy in the variety article states the film will actually make money theatrically!
That's a big enough gap that I think us msg board folks don't have the whole picture when it comes to financials of these things

 

[MisterPenguin]

A lot of posters here seem pretty confident in their numbers, one said just the other day Elemental was going to lose over 100 million. Now the Pixar/Disney guy in the variety article states the film will actually make money theatrically!
That's a big enough gap that I think us msg board folks don't have the whole picture when it comes to financials of these things

People forget that the 'rule of thumb' is just a 'rule of thumb' because Hollywood finances are mostly a black box.

By the rule of thumb, Elemental will lose that much in the theatrical window, if and only if, the rule of thumb as applied to Elemental is accurate.

But the rule of thumb is not the *actual* figures. If a studio exec contradicts the rule of thumb, then that's a more reliable source than the rule of thumb.

 

[Mmoore29]

Who said flop?

Know your audience

It’s not a success. That isn’t a flop

Indy flopped and haunted mansion flopped

They’ve had a couple other losers..though more modest/mitigated.

They’ve had exactly 1 picture released in calendar year 2023 make a modest profit at the box office.

And before anyone says “but the stuff!!!”

Yes…they’ve sold some stuff.
Here’s how that differs from before:
They used to make money at the theater and sell a lot more stuff to make more money because so many MORE people saw it and liked it at the theater.

“New math” is hard though.

People like you have all been saying "flop," so don't pretend otherwise. The movie is successful, Elemental is successful. Haunted Mansion can easily become a late bloomer as well. Indy did exactly what people predicted it would, and they criticize it for...meeting their financial expectations.

Guardians 3 was a massive high earner. Quantumania did not flop. Disney is not facing severe losses by any standard.

Pixar, Lucasfilm and Marvel are all high value earners and they are doing quite well. You can keep pretending otherwise, but it doesn't make your claims true.