Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disstevefan1]

Movie budgets get approved on average 3-4 years before a movie is released. So all the budgets we're seeing now were approved mostly in 2019 before the pandemic.

Any budget slashing being done now won't really be felt for a few years in most cases.

Well start slashing now as they are spending too much.

 

[Disstevefan1]

That is the measure they use. It’s the measure they’ve used for forty years and especially for the last fifteen. It is why studios are financially structured as they are, why particular mergers and acquisitions take place.

Films ALMOST ALWAYS make money (Indy probably won’t, the rest of Disney’s slate will) and the studios ALWAYS pretend they don’t. Would everyone like MORE money at every phase of a film’s existence, including box office? Sure! Does that make BO the be all and end all? Nope.

Therefore, going forward folks must totally ignore the box office and rationalize that a given movie will eventually make money.

Its like being a Mets fan - someday we will be back in the world series.

 

[celluloid]

Well start slashing now as they are spending too much.

And back to mostly a Disney problem as for Example, Super Mario cost half the price or so of Elemental.

Film budgets usually occur after written scripts go to producers. It's not a hard fast 3-4 year rule.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well start slashing now as they are spending too much.

I'm pretty sure they are already doing it for upcoming projects. Again it won't be felt for a few years as those projects aren't coming out for a few years. Any movie scheduled to be released in the next 6-12 months would have had its budget already set and most if not all filming already done. So only slashing they could do is for post production, which isn't likely to gain much.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Therefore, going forward folks must totally ignore the box office and rationalize that a given movie will eventually make money.

Its like being a Mets fan - someday we will be back in the world series.

No, BO can be an interesting and useful measure. But it’s vitally important to understand it in context. It is very fair to say Little Mermaid has underperformed internationally and Indy has (sadly) underperformed everywhere, that Ant-Man was a considerable disappointment for the MCU. Just don’t run around screaming that the sky is falling.

 

[Andrew C]

First, I’m a huge Disney fan and I watch (or at least attempt to watch) pretty much everything Disney releases, I just wait for it on D+ now because I don’t trust that I’ll like it and I don’t want to waste my money on something I won’t like, especially when I know it’ll be available on D+ in a few months.

Second, rejecting a show after watching a couple episodes is a far cry from rejecting it because I didn’t like some completely unrelated show. Not sure how you even came to that conclusion. Finding a show slow and boring shows bias? To what, boredom? Wow, I don’t even know how to respond to that, that’s the craziest thing I’ve read in a while.



Maybe best if I never respond to you again because you are so out there I don’t know how to respond.

I liked Andor and a lot of other people did too...therefore you suck at life.

 

[Heppenheimer]

In my opinion the budgets for the movies have gotten out of hand. There was a time budgets were enforced.

Today there are not enough people going to the movies to pay for these massive budgets.

Either they regain control of the budgets or no longer use the box office as a measure and use box office + purchase over stream + purchase of physical media + merch to determine if a movie is a success or not. The problem there is it will take years to see this data.

It seems the box office is baked in as THE measure. So they must LOWER the budgets of the movies.

Sounds like someone saw the Critical Drinker's latest video today.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Advice for watching Andor
-Turn on subtitles
-Yes, the first 2 episode are slow
-By the end of episode 3 you will be hooked
-By the end of episode 10 you will in awe that SW can be this good

Yeah, would have hurt them to do a better sound mix on that show? I could barely hear the dialogue, then when I turned the sound up, the occasional blaster or spaceship noise would resound through my house. And because I could only watch the show once the kiddos are asleep, my wife would yell "Turn that down!"

So, I never made it past the middle of episode 2. I'll have to take other's word that it was a good show.

 

[Andrew C]

Yeah, would have hurt them to do a better sound mix on that show? I could barely hear the dialogue, then when I turned the sound up, the occasional blaster or spaceship noise would resound through my house. And because I could only watch the show once the kiddos are asleep, my wife would yell "Turn that down!"

I feel like all/most of these type of shows are like this nowadays....

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

I feel like all/most of these type of shows are like this nowadays....

Yeah it's way too common now. Using CC does help, especially with shows like Andor where I probably would have been lost without it

 

[TP2000]

Here's where Disney stands with its last six mega-budget tentpole films, as of final box office data through Sunday, August 6th.

So far since Easter vacation, Disney has lost a total of $637 Million on these six movies. Once Haunted Mansion's super flop results are factored in by mid September, the total loss number will be closer to $610 Million in my opinion.

Ant-Man ($200 Production, $100 Marketing) = $72 Million Loss
Guardians 3 ($250 Production, $100 Marketing) = $59 Million Profit
Little Mermaid ($250 Production, $140 Marketing) = $105 Million Loss
Elemental ($200 Production, $100 Marketing) = $101 Million Loss
Indy 5 ($300 Production, $100 Marketing) = $218 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion ($157 Production, $75 Marketing) = $200 Million Loss but still declining

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BuddyThomas]

Here's where Disney stands with its last six mega-budget tentpole films, as of final box office data through Sunday, August 6th.

So far since Easter vacation, Disney has lost a total of $637 Million on these six movies. Once Haunted Mansion's super flop results are factored in by mid September, the total loss number will be closer to $610 Million in my opinion.

Ant-Man ($200 Production, $100 Marketing) = $72 Million Loss
Guardians 3 ($250 Production, $100 Marketing) = $59 Million Profit
Little Mermaid ($250 Production, $140 Marketing) = $105 Million Loss
Elemental ($200 Production, $100 Marketing) = $101 Million Loss
Indy 5 ($300 Production, $100 Marketing) = $218 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion ($157 Production, $75 Marketing) = $200 Million Loss but still declining

View attachment 736093

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

Will you be posting the box office results over and over and over and over and over and over again when Disney has a big hit?

 

[MisterPenguin]

An aside - looking at this thread, I keep getting that song from Evita stuck in my head, where the ex-girlfriend is trilling "So what happens noooooow?"

Don't ask any mooore...

 

[TP2000]

- People who are mad at Disney, for various reasons. The Right is mad at Disney. China gets mad at Disney for various things. Disney fans are mad at Disney for what they're doing in the parks. This one is tricky, because some of the reasons are political, and I think Disney needs to do the right thing while also finding a better way to sell it, to get people onboard with what they are doing.

What I find truly alarming is how badly many Disney movies perform in Communist China, if they can even get the approval to be released there by Communist censors. And even if a movie gets approved for release in Communist China, it does underwhelming numbers. The sole exception seems to be Marvel movies, but even then the box office is around 15% or 20% of US box office.

So tell me again why Bob Iger invested Billions into building a Disneyland for Shanghai? Why are they even bothering with Communist China?

Box Office in Communist China 2023
AntMan = $39 Million
Guardians 3 = $87 Million
Little Mermaid = $4 Million
Elemental = $16 Million
Indy 5 = $3 Million
Haunted Mansion = Not Released in China

 

[TP2000]

Will you be posting the box office results over and over and over and over and over and over again when Disney has a big hit?

I'd look forward to that. But first, we'd need to get Disney to produce a big money-making hit again.

Next up this fall... The Marvels and Wish.

 

[BuddyThomas]

I'd look forward to that. But first, we'd need to get Disney to produce a big hit again.

Next up this fall... The Marvels and Wish.

I can’t wait for your box office analysis of those.

 

[TP2000]

I can’t wait for your box office analysis of those.

Well, to be honest, it's not "my" analysis, if you can even call it analysis. It's just the hard data and factual financial information released by theater chains and studios.

There's really no analysis involved, just a little math. It is simply hard data and financial facts. Like this...

 

[BuddyThomas]

Well, to be honest, it's not "my" analysis, if you can even call it analysis. It's just the hard data and factual financial information released by theater chains and studios.

There's really no analysis involved, just a little math. It is simply hard data and financial facts. Like this...

View attachment 736122

Well if that’s the case, I guess all of us movie going adults can find the box office information ourselves and don’t need endless posts about it, but thank you for your service. Or something.

 

[TP2000]

Well if that’s the case, I guess all of us movie going adults can find the box office information ourselves and don’t need endless posts about it, but thank you for your service. Or something.

It's my distinct pleasure. I love this thread, the data we discuss, and it's various side conversations, don't you?

We all owe @Disney Analyst a churro for thinking of it.

 

[Casper Gutman]

What I find truly alarming is how badly many Disney movies perform in Communist China, if they can even get the approval to be released there by Communist censors. And even if a movie gets approved for release in Communist China, it does underwhelming numbers. The sole exception seems to be Marvel movies, but even then the box office is around 15% or 20% of US box office.

So tell me again why Bob Iger invested Billions into building a Disneyland for Shanghai? Why are they even bothering with Communist China?

Box Office in Communist China 2023
AntMan = $39 Million
Guardians 3 = $87 Million
Little Mermaid = $4 Million
Elemental = $16 Million
Indy 5 = $3 Million
Haunted Mansion = Not Released in China

This has been discussed. With the exception of Avatar, every American movie is struggling in China. No one is quite sure why. It's probably not a good sign for... anything. But this isn't really a Disney problem (Remember, Universal just opened a major Chinese park). One hopes it doesn't become a world problem.