Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

Sorry… I did not mean to quote you… Sir asked when was the last time a Marvel movie went for funny

Gotcha.
He did clarify in his post if you read the entire thing that has been Guardians schtick with Irreverent humor. But now that every character, particularly Thor films do that too it makes it less special and Love and Thunder Numbers as well as Ant Man spin offs show that is kind of saturated in itself.

The angle for Captain Marvel to lean in with that may not be a winning situation. All comic movies need comic relief, but like the HM trailer, we get fifteen multiple irreverent responses a minute. He was going by the trailer. Guardians Volume 3 did not exactly perform great either. So they have had their finale in the saturated market.

 

[DKampy]

Guardians Volume 3 did not exactly perform great either. So they have had their finale in the saturated market.

I think Guardians did fine… it was never a billion dollar franchise… I would not be surprised if Disney finds a way to get more Guardians on the screen as people seemed to like the last one…will it be good without James Gunn’s involvement… that is the bigger question

 

[celluloid]

I think Guardians did fine… it was never a billion dollar franchise… I would not be surprised if Disney finds a way to get more Guardians on the screen as people seemed to like the last one…will it be good without James Gunn’s involvement… that is the bigger question

That is cool that you think it did fine. But it is at the point where it is not worth perusing for the studio unless they want to see a loss next time even greater.

It cost 250 million, so the most expensive Super Hero Movie for Disney of the year. It underwhelmed at the box office and had spring and summer.

It was not even the top grossing Marvel Movie of the year. Not even the top grossing Chris Pratt movie of the year. Disney is not in the business of breaking even to lose.

Without Gunn do you really think they would be likely to get the entire cast together again? They are ensemble movies. It would be hard to get that cast together again even with Gunn. They certainly won't get a fourth volume movie for less money.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Guardians 3 did pretty well swimming against the box office headwinds trend.

And yes - it’s industry wide and YES much worse for Disney.

$800 mil is a good haul now in many ways…but still down.

Guardians 3 was a tear jerker though…all heart and character. Even the drax stuff got serious.

Definitely a top MCU movie…and a fitting one that will endure for what it does. My opinion - of course

 

[celluloid]

Guardians 3 did pretty well swimming against the box office headwinds trend.

And yes - it’s industry wide and YES much worse for Disney.

$800 mil is a good haul now in many ways…but still down.

Guardians 3 was a tear jerker though…all heart and character. Even the drax stuff got serious.

Definitely a top MCU movie…and a fitting one that will endure for what it does. My opinion - of course

It was a great ride off into the sunset, which for sure helped inflate its turn out swimming against that headwind. And ultimately, another reason we know another would cost more and not likely reach even these numbers.

It was its version of what Last Crusade was for Indy.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It was a great ride off into the sunset, which for sure helped inflate its turn out swimming against that headwind. And ultimately, another reason we know another would cost more and not likely reach even these numbers.

It was its version of what Last Crusade was for Indy.

Bingo…I didn’t even need to say it

 

[DisneyHead123]

An aside - looking at this thread, I keep getting that song from Evita stuck in my head, where the ex-girlfriend is trilling "So what happens noooooow?"

Regarding the title of this thread, I think Disney has to overcome these challenges in approximately this order:

- The Streaming Issue. Disney+ is a black hole of lost profits and it has trained audiences to just wait for movies on D+. I think Disney being an easily visible company makes this worse. I couldn't tell you where a movie like Barbie is going to stream or when, and I imagine this is true for many casual movie viewers. So the FOMO is greater. But Disney movie = Disney+, and relatively soon, makes it simple to save on that very expensive trip to the movies.

- Big budgets. These overshadow the fact that their movies actually are making a great deal of money - just not enough to leap over an impossibly high bar in terms of budget.

- People who are mad at Disney, for various reasons. The Right is mad at Disney. China gets mad at Disney for various things. Disney fans are mad at Disney for what they're doing in the parks. This one is tricky, because some of the reasons are political, and I think Disney needs to do the right thing while also finding a better way to sell it, to get people onboard with what they are doing.

- Disney needs to get a bit more "finger on the pulse" with their movie offerings. I put this low on the list because I think their movies are overall still very good. But they need to fine tune the audience they are targeting them too. None of the kids in my life saw Elemental because it seemed too plot-heavy for little kids who like bright colors, slapstick comedy, and tons of action - so Mario and now Ninja Turtles were the go-to. Little Mermaid probably could have been more of an "experience movie" in the style of Barbie if they had partnered with Starbucks to create a Mermaid Frappuccino and done an Instagram challenge and such. Again, it's not that I think their movies aren't quality, but missing the trends of the moment by even a little bit can be a big deal in the current zeitgeist.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Guardians 3 met expectations. Made more than part 1 and about the same as part 2.

 

[celluloid]

- Disney needs to get a bit more "finger on the pulse" with their movie offerings. I put this low on the list because I think their movies are overall still very good. But they need to fine tune the audience they are targeting them too. None of the kids in my life saw Elemental because it seemed too plot-heavy for little kids who like bright colors, slapstick comedy, and tons of action - so Mario and now Ninja Turtles were the go-to. Little Mermaid probably could have been more of an "experience movie" in the style of Barbie if they had partnered with Starbucks to create a Mermaid Frappuccino and done an Instagram challenge and such. Again, it's not that I think their movies aren't quality, but missing the trends of the moment by even a little bit can be a big deal in the current zeitgeist.

Those are all very good points and remind that the problem is resting on the laurels of what was, not often creating and producing new with risk and effort.

Earlier I posted on how nearly a decade of kids do not have a variety of Disney to cling to. A few hits further in-between than they have ever been and all Disney wants to do lately is remake those too. It is bad for their attachment to the brand but also, the generation that comes after them. Disney has a Disney problem for this reason.

 

[DKampy]

It was a great ride off into the sunset, which for sure helped inflate its turn out swimming against that headwind. And ultimately, another reason we know another would cost more and not likely reach even these numbers.

It was its version of what Last Crusade was for Indy.

Should and would are 2 different things

 

[celluloid]

Should and would are 2 different things

Indeed. But we know how that worked out for Dial of Destiny. So we are back to Disney losing money and having a Disney possibly sticking to having a Disney problem.

 

[DKampy]

Indeed. But we know how that worked out for Dial of Destiny. So we are back to Disney losing money and having a Disney possibly sticking to having a Disney problem.

Disney is having a Hollywood problem right now

 

[celluloid]

Disney is having a Hollywood problem right now

A Nearly Half Billion deeper difference problem. We are back to this eh? Check the numbers a page or two ago.

None are soaring, but there are movie studios actually in the green this year at this point.

Disney is deep in the red with nothing to save it on the horizon except for possibly Wish, which just finished being animated and may actually get a full trailer one day.

 

[Jedijax719]

Disney is having a Hollywood problem right now

Or Hollywood is having a Disney problem right now.

 

[DKampy]

A Nearly Half Billion deeper difference problem. We are back to this eh? Check the numbers a page or two ago.

None are soaring, but there are movie studios actually in the green this year at this point.

Disney is deep in the red with nothing to save it on the horizon except for possibly Wish, which just finished being animated and may actually get a full trailer one day.

I actually would not count out Haunting in Venice or the Creator doing decent…or even The Marvels….my wife is very excited(and she is not a huge marvel fan)…who knew Barbie would become the biggest movie of the year just a couple of months ago…. But apparently posters have crystal balls

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney is having a Hollywood problem right now

Nope

A Nearly Half Billion deeper difference problem. We are back to this eh? Check the numbers a page or two ago.

None are soaring, but there are movie studios actually in the green this year at this point.

Disney is deep in the red with nothing to save it on the horizon except for possibly Wish, which just finished being animated and may actually get a full trailer one day.

Yes


But let’s go ahead and ride this merry go round again?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Or Hollywood is having a Disney problem right now.

No joke…this is maybe closest to the truth

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I watched Guardians 3 the other day and, although it was ok, it was my least favorite Guardians movie… which made me realize this is a trend with Disney that’s been happening for a few years.

The most recent Guardians movie = my least favorite Guardians movie.
The most recent Thor movie = my least favorite Thor movie.
The most recent AntMan = my least favorite AntMan.
The most recent remake (Peter Pan and Wendy since I haven’t seen TLM yet) = my least favorite remake. (Which prior to that was Pinocchio, the next most recent, which prior to that was Mulan, the next most recent.)
The most recent Mandalorian season = my least favorite Mando season.
The most recent Star Wars show (Andor) = my least favorite Star Wars show.
The most recent Toy Story (Lightyear) = my least favorite Toy Story.
The most recent animated movie (Strange World) = my least favorite animated movie.

Is it really hard to see why they’re struggling at the box office?

Their once stellar reputation for high quality isn’t what it used to be, they’re going to need a string of hits to convince me to blindly give them my money in theaters again.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Those are all very good points and remind that the problem is resting on the laurels of what was, not often creating and producing new with risk and effort.

Earlier I posted on how nearly a decade of kids do not have a variety of Disney to cling to. A few hits further in-between than they have ever been and all Disney wants to do lately is remake those too. It is bad for their attachment to the brand but also, the generation that comes after them. Disney has a Disney problem for this reason.

I am a little more sympathetic regarding their movie development (as opposed to the parks, where I’m not happy about the nickel-diming). I don’t know if they’re resting on their laurels or just not producing huge hits - and producing huge hits constantly is an art pretty much no one can master. I think they have done some experimental stuff, it just hasn’t paid off, in terms of producing a blockbuster big enough to make up for huge budgets. They went through their “Home On The Range” phase before and then had their Renaissance - I think that type of thing is cyclic.

I do think streaming is their biggest challenge though, and I don’t think I’m being dramatic when I say that could potentially cost them their behemoth status if not managed properly. I don’t think they’ll go bankrupt but there’s the potential for them to become a much smaller player. That one is a game changer above and beyond almost all other factors, to my mind. Personally I think they need to go to premium, paid content in the style of Amazon Prime. As a consumer I’m obviously not in favor of that but realistically, I think that’s the only way they’ll turn a profit. I also think they need to partner with or form a gaming service, because that is a big part of the future of entertainment.

 

[Willmark]

I should think that Thursday’s earnings call will be interesting but as noted it’s going to take the next quarter’s one to fully tell the tale.

As near as I can see as an outsider (largely) the entire movie industry is having issues and Disney has the same and then some.

Seems like it’s non mutually exclusive.