Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I do actually. The redhead background actress who played the Barbie who had that one line "This is the best day ever" is a trans woman.

She started her life as a male, and still has the XY chromosomes to prove it. At some point in her life she transitioned to being a woman, and is now referred to as a "trans woman".

But in the movie Barbie, her character was not a trans woman. Her character was one of the many Barbies, and she had exactly one good line.

When she goes home from her job on the Warners studio lot, she is a trans woman.

In the movie she recently acted in for Warners, she played a woman named Barbie.

While its not actually touched upon in the film, the fact a trans actress is playing a "Barbie" basically insinuates she is a trans Barbie.

Its not like Mattel doesn't already have a trans Barbie or anything....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jennif...laverne--with-their-first-transgender-barbie/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/laverne--barbie-mattel-transgender-doll/

 

[BrianLo]

I think people like Barbie because it's a good story told in a fun way. Good storytelling is something Disney seems to have forgotten how to do. Agenda has superceded the story and no one is interested.

Other than Elemental, which was unfairly swept up in an anti-Disney + post-Chapek destruction of the Disney box office movement. There's a reason that movie clung to the box office.

Plus Little Mermaid (Domestically) and Guardians 3. HM is also probably being pilloried by the direct to stream expectation and extremely poor release window, which was clearly made because it's meant to be a Halloween D+ release.

 

[LittleBuford]

Your energy has just been misplaced against a trio of movies you didn't like.

Correction: a trio of movies he didn’t watch. He can’t possibly know whether he likes them or not.

 

[Tha Realest]

Mansion projected to have a terrible 60% drop this weekend, down to potentially single digits in its second weekend.

2023 Domestic Box Office Surges Past $6 Billion This Weekend Due To ‘Barbie’, ‘Oppenheimer’, ‘Turtles’ & ‘Meg 2’ As Strikes Continue – Sunday Update

The spoils of July are spilling over into August as Warner Bros.' Barbie jetted across the four-century mark at the domestic box office in day 14. 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles' Eyes Second With $30M 3-day, $45M 5-day.

deadline.com

Disney knew they had a turkey on their hands, as evidenced in the disgraceful way they leaked that Simien was off the Lando series the night before his big budget Disney film officially opened - and he found out on social media like everyone else.

https://www.ign.com/articles/original-lando-showrunner-found-out-he-was-replaced-on-social-media

 

[BrianLo]

I do on the topic of Elemental want to circle back to MI:7. I think these are the two less obvious 'stories' of the summer 2023 box office. The obvious one being Barbenheimer.

MI:7 was entirely destroyed by Barbenheimer. Its box office potential did not track with an A Cinemascore, which remains an extremely reliable legs target. It's wasn't Barbie, it wasn't Oppenheimer, it was both.

MI:7's target audience was redirected immediately to Oppenheimer. That honestly would have never been categorized as such an event if not for Barbie. If MI:7 was in that release window we'd probably be celebrating the Barbie Possible movement.

Haunted Mansion was literally discarded by Disney into that wave, that was their own fault. Which again means they clearly prioritized its streaming potential over the box office. But MI:7 did not 'deserve' its poorly timed outcome.

This summer was a wasteland of really, really poor studio scheduling decisions. Ironic because now the Fall is being vacated thanks to the strikes.

 

[TP2000]

Correction: a trio of movies he didn’t watch. He can’t possibly know whether he likes them or not.

Which is why I've never offered any artistic criticism of those movies. I've never seen them. So how would I know?

But, I can look at the actual facts and data of the box office financials. And I do comment on those facts and that data.

 

[TP2000]

This summer was a wasteland of really, really poor studio scheduling decisions. Ironic because now the Fall is being vacated thanks to the strikes.

I believe it has more to do than just scheduling decisions, as Disney's summer tentpoles themselves haven't been very well received by a willing free market who has just proven they will mob the local megaplex this summer if its a movie they want to see.

But I agree that scheduling was a big part of the issue at least for Haunted Mansion's faceplant at the box office. Whoever looked at that movie, looked at the calendar, and then said "Late July" for that one was just dumb.

Overall, a fun and lively conversation here on the patio this afternoon, gang. But I have to get to the butcher before he closes and the market or else this weekend will be a total failure. Happy summer weekend to one and all, and go see Barbie again.

Or, better yet, go see Haunted Mansion. It needs the help.

 

[BuddyThomas]

There was no LGBT character in the movie Barbie. That was actually a surprise, as in the commercials it looked like the kid we now know as Alan was supposed to be gay. But he wasn't. There was no sexuality at all in Barbie, really. Which now makes so much sense because Barbie and Ken don't even know why they're supposed to stay over at the Dream House together, even if Ken has "all the genitals".

But there was not a single LGBT reference or character in Barbie. And it was rated PG-13. So, even if Alan had been explained as being gay in the movie, which he wasn't.... what's the problem? I don't see one.



I don't know that I've ever voiced a concern about TLM being "woke". It's certainly been a box office disappointment, but I didn't see it and haven't weighed in on the movie itself, aside from its financial performance.

That said, I have an opinion on changing the race of Ariel to anyone other than a northern European white girl. Which is that it's borderline offensive to do so, just as it would be offensive to get a swarthy Brazillian actor to play a Chinese warrior, or get a blue eyed Norwegian guy to play an Egyptian phoaroh. I say that as a Scandinavian-American who knows from my childhood that Hans Christian Andersen is one of the most famous writers to come out of Scandinavia, and his story The Little Mermaid is an important one in that culture. But that's just me and my childhood memories of my grandma reading us Hans Christian Andersen, it's a bit jarring for an old Swede like myself.

But if Disney could have made a lot of money on that new version of Ariel where anyone can be any race based on a traditional Danish fairy tale, then that would have been great. I loved that multi-racial version of Cinderella they did for TV in the 90's, so sometimes that kind of "re-imagining of an old classic" stuff can work brilliantly.

The reality is that Disney failed to make any money on this latest version of The Little Mermaid. The overseas box office in particular was atrocious for it, although its American box office was modestly successful.

There is a trans actress in Barbie and are you kidding? This is one of the gayest movies ever made.

 

[BuddyThomas]

I do actually. The redhead background actress who played the Barbie who had that one line "This is the best day ever" is a trans woman.

She started her life as a male, and still has the XY chromosomes to prove it. At some point in her life she transitioned to being a woman, and is now referred to as a "trans woman".

But in the movie Barbie, her character was not a trans woman. Her character was one of the many Barbies, and she had exactly one good line.

When she goes home from her job on the Warners studio lot, she is a trans woman.

In the movie she recently acted in for Warners, she played a woman named Barbie.

She had much more than one line. Maybe you fell asleep?

 

[LittleBuford]

Which is why I've never offered any artistic criticism of those movies.

That just isn’t true.

And the character development of Strange World seems designed by a Diversity Committee made up of humorless HR ladies who put their pronouns in their email signatures. It's a family unit that instantly reads as fake and forced.

And then when I learned that the family had a 3-legged dog I just said... Ohhhyougottabekiddingme!?!

About a week ago via this thread, I found myself looking at the Strange World characters and I just kept thinking "Why are their noses shaped like a giant boiled potato? Why are they so ugly?"

 

[Tha Realest]

HM is also probably being pilloried by the direct to stream expectation and extremely poor release window, which was clearly made because it's meant to be a Halloween D+ release.

if that is the case, then whoever made that decision needs to be fired. This film is doing so poorly it’s going to need one of those Magic Checks from D+ to “turn a profit.”

even Hocus Pocus 2 only cost $40 to produce.

 

[BrianLo]

if that is the case, then whoever made that decision needs to be fired. This film is doing so poorly it’s going to need one of those Magic Checks from D+ to “turn a profit.”

even Hocus Pocus 2 only cost $40 to produce.

It was at one point a March 2023 release and then this past February they moved it from August 11th up to July 28.

I don't really get it other than them trying to break the psyche of the too short stream window. August 11th would have been a far better date.

It does have about the same budget post tax breaks as Artemis Fowl. That's why I think in part it was at one time being pegged by Chapek as straight to D+. Of course Artemis Fowl is being written down, but really never did anything on streaming viewership wise.

I mean it *might* be low enough, IF it hits on D+, which it could for the holiday, to not be a total write down. Unlike say Indy that is simply too expensive and fully insurmountable.

HM also really doesn't have an International release yet, so there are still a couple outstanding threads to wait for before we beat the dead horse.

Hocus Pocus 2 had a very appropriate streaming sized budget. I'm actually impressed.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You're like a person who tells a bad joke and when it gets no laugh, you tell it again and again thinking maybe people didn't hear you the first time.

Sorry that we not all running around with our hair on fire because you keep reposting the same movie stats. We saw them the first time you posted them as well as the dozen of times after. It's just background noise now.

Instead, we're all talking about Barbie. Why? Because *you* kept bringing that movie up over and over again.

Ironic, isn't it?

Since it seems to anger you that almost everyone in America loves the Barbie movie, why don't you guys weigh in on your thoughts about this data instead?...

Walt Disney Animation: No 2023 Release Yet (Wish arrives November 22nd) = 0
Walt Disney Pictures: Little Mermaid, Haunted Mansion = $308 Million Loss (Haunted Mansion will reduce that loss by $25 Million or so)
Pixar: Elemental = $113 Million Loss
Marvel: Ant Man, Guardians 3 = $11 Million Loss
Lucas: Indy 5 = $233 Million Loss
Searchlight: Chevalier, Theater Camp = $56 Million Loss
20th Century: The Boogeyman = $8 Million Loss

2023 Disney Total As of August 2nd = $729 Million Loss

Relax, it was a Ben Shapiro joke.

I said almost everyone in America likes Barbie, because Mr. Shapiro hated it. An opinion I disagree with and don't think he even paid attention to the movie when his staff forced him to watch it.

But seriously, do you have any thoughts on this?...

Walt Disney Animation: No 2023 Release Yet (Wish arrives November 22nd) = 0
Walt Disney Pictures: Little Mermaid, Haunted Mansion = $308 Million Loss (Haunted Mansion will reduce that loss by $25 Million or so)
Pixar: Elemental = $113 Million Loss
Marvel: Ant Man, Guardians 3 = $11 Million Loss
Lucas: Indy 5 = $233 Million Loss
Searchlight: Chevalier, Theater Camp = $56 Million Loss
20th Century: The Boogeyman = $8 Million Loss

2023 Disney Total As of August 2nd = $729 Million Loss

Box office data is out for Thursday, August 4th with the previews for Meg 2 and first full day of Ninja Turtles.

This looks like it's where the weekend will end up, with Haunted Mansion coming in a rather distant 4th place.

A reminder, that Disney spent $157 Million on the production budget, and perhaps another $75 Million on the marketing for Haunted Mansion. Which would mean it needs at least $450 Million globally to break even.

View attachment 735449

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

From a statistical perspective on costs vs. profit, yes it likely will.

But in a pure dollars perspective, Haunted Mansion won't be able to match the sheer dollar amount that Indy 5 will have lost, because Haunted Mansion had a budget only half that of Indy (but still wildly out of control and bloated for the movie it was).

Indy 5: $300 Production, $100 Marketing, Global Box Office $358, Box Office Take $177 = $233 Million Loss

Haunted Mansion: $157 Production, $75 Marketing, Global Box Office $42, Box Office Take $24 = $232 Million Loss

So Haunted Mansion has already done better less bad than Indy 5 financially. And Haunted Mansion will probably shave another $25 or $30 Million off its loss tally by the end of September.

But that just means Haunted Mansion will have "only" lost $200 Million or so for Disney, versus the $230-ish Million loss that Indy will have racked up by September.

Well, the thread is about Disney at the Box Office, but we can certainly add Warner's The Flash in as a comparison if you'd like...

Indy 5: $300 Production, $100 Marketing, Global Box Office $358, Box Office Take $177 = $233 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $157 Production, $75 Marketing, Global Box Office $42, Box Office Take $24 = $232 Million Loss

The Flash: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, Global Box Office $268, Box Office Take $129 = $171 Million Loss

The big losses for The Flash are also counted in the 2023 tally of profits or losses that gets us this company data as of August 3rd...

Warner Bros., 7 movies: Production $475, Marketing $238, Global Box Office $1,488, Box Office Take $744 = $31 Million Profit
Disney, 7 movies: Production $1,392, Marketing $696, Global Box Office $2,736, Box Office Take $1,368 = $720 Million Loss

View attachment 735456

 

[Chi84]

Wow. Google Sound of Freedom. Some strange news.

 

[wtyy21]

From a statistical perspective on costs vs. profit, yes it likely will.

But in a pure dollars perspective, Haunted Mansion won't be able to match the sheer dollar amount that Indy 5 will have lost, because Haunted Mansion had a budget only half that of Indy (but still wildly out of control and bloated for the movie it was).

Indy 5: $300 Production, $100 Marketing, Global Box Office $358, Box Office Take $177 = $233 Million Loss

Haunted Mansion: $157 Production, $75 Marketing, Global Box Office $42, Box Office Take $24 = $232 Million Loss

So Haunted Mansion has already done better less bad than Indy 5 financially. And Haunted Mansion will probably shave another $25 or $30 Million off its loss tally by the end of September.

But that just means Haunted Mansion will have "only" lost $200 Million or so for Disney, versus the $230-ish Million loss that Indy will have racked up by September.

I would like to see how Iger himself address its box office failure during Q3 2023 earnings regarding its third quarter financial results. This is where all Disney divisions will report their financial results of the fiscal quarter. Meanwhile, Hollywood strikes expected to be mentioned by Iger during the earnings.

Disney: August 9th Earnings Meaningless In Light Of A Broken Business Model (NYSE:DIS)

An earnings beat by Walt Disney will undoubtedly unleash the pom pom twirlers with false hope, but DIS issues go deeper. Click here to read our earnings preview.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Wow. Google Sound of Freedom. Some strange news.

Oh the irony....

And in other news its been losing steam at the box office too.....

 

[wtyy21]

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The good news is I’ll be dead soon…there’s no way a human neck can take the amount of violent head shaking mine has to endure for long…

 

[Joel]

They're really going to subvert our expectations with this one. It'll be about a cosmopolitan gal who gives up climbing the corporate ladder to move back in with the well-meaning woman who kidnapped her as a baby.

 

[doctornick]

My early prediction is both Marvels and Wish are minor hits

I’m still on record as saying that The Marvels will do fine - I’m predicting around $750-800M worldwide.