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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
LSLS said:
But if they aren't subbing just to watch that movie, they aren't getting the revenue either way. If someone would go see a movie at the theater and still keep their D+ subscription, Disney would get $10 from the subscription and $5 from the movie watch. If that same person decides not to go to the movies anymore because "Eh, I can wait a few months", they went from collecting $15 off that person to just $10. That $10 was going to come in no matter what if they aren't subbing just to see new movies. Now, like I said, what that doesn't factor in how ad revenue is working, so take that as another large consideration, but it's not about they watch it either way because they don't make money off it either way if the person is not subscribing just to see the new movies coming out to streaming, and wouldn't be subscribed if they had to wait longer.
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But given history, even without D+ we know that people would wait, as it would be released on some sort of streaming platform (like Netflix), or VOD rentals / purchases. Heck, back in the day some people would wait for it to show up at Blockbuster, or to maybe buy on VHS or DVD at a store. Of course, it does seem more people are waiting to view on their own terms outside a theatre than ever before, but you can't stop that train now that it has left the station.

So Disney doing this with their own platform ENSURES they are the ones getting the direct consumer dollar, at the price they want, vs a deal with another platform to host their content after the theatrical run.

The landscape has changed, forever. The audience is changing how they watch, it was inevitable.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
…this is a really hard concept for like 6 people to grasp…

And the “new math” to splain it away only popped up when the Disney studios started tanking movies left and right
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Whats funny is its not new math, its old math if you have followed any industry in the last couple 100 years. Subscription models aren't new, and neither is its math.

Its an old model being applied to an old industry. Some such as yourself are just having a hard time accepting the change, which is fine. The industry will change whether some can accept it or not.
 
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easyrowrdw

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
Again this only matters if all you see is box office as the "only money that matters". And so yes in the short term they may lose out on that $5 but in the long term they make more based on the continual sub. The economics show that its the long term revenue that matters, not the short term loss.
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It’s not the only money that matters but it is still money. I think someone mentioned that the movies that are most successful in streaming tend to be the ones that did well in the theaters also. The ideal for Disney would be people watching their movies in the theaters and on Disney+/VOD/Blu-ray.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
easyrowrdw said:
It’s not the only money that matters but it is still money. I think someone mentioned that the movies that are most successful in streaming tend to be the ones that did well in the theaters also. The ideal for Disney would be people watching their movies in the theaters and on Disney+/VOD/Blu-ray.
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And I'm not disputing that. But as pointed out by @Disney Analyst and others including myself the idea is that Disney is still trying to make sure they capture those that will wait anyways and not go to the theaters. So if that means giving up short term revenue from theatrical to gain long term revenue from DTC, I think they are fine with that.

As saying goes the genie is out of the bottle already anyways, there is no putting it back.

Also Disney is already has the longest release window in terms of waiting to push movies to digital/streaming. So they already are trying to get both.
 
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easyrowrdw

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
And I'm not disputing that. But as pointed out by @Disney Analyst and others including myself the idea is that Disney is still trying to make sure they capture those that will wait anyways and not go to the theaters. So if that means giving up short term revenue from theatrical to gain long term revenue from DTC, I think they are fine with that.

As saying goes the genie is out of the bottle already anyways, there is no putting it back.

Also Disney is already has the longest release window in terms of waiting to push movies to digital/streaming. So they already are trying to get both.
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Okay, it does matter. I didn’t get that from your prior message but I gotcha now. We’ll see how it plays out. I’m curious how things progress over the years. When MCU movies are going from 700-1,000+ million to 400-600 million, what impact does that have on post-theatrical?

Anecdotally, I haven’t kept Disney+ for any of their recent output. It’s pretty much just Bluey and the back catalog. I wonder sometimes if it would be better to just load up on used dvds lol
 
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Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
easyrowrdw said:
Okay, it does matter. I didn’t get that from your prior message but I gotcha now. We’ll see how it plays out. I’m curious how things progress over the years. When MCU movies are going from 700-1,000+ million to 400-600 million, what impact does that have on post-theatrical?

Anecdotally, I haven’t kept Disney+ for any of their recent output. It’s pretty much just Bluey and the back catalog. I wonder sometimes if it would be better to just load up on used dvds lol
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None of this stuff happens in a vacuum. The MCU stuff for example is not isolated to just the D+ impact or just one thing, its a whole hosts of things that caused it to get less at the box office, including but not limited lower quality movies and even no event movies being released post-Endgame. I've long said that the MCU expectations needed to be reset because you couldn't keep expecting every movie to do $750M-$1B+ forever, its unsustainable, not every movie is going to be a hit.

Anyways yes we'll all have a front seat to see how the whole market will play out.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DKampy said:
Funny that the same people who want to say Netflix is a success with no theatrical… want to say Disney is a failure… they are both the top 2 streaming services
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Well one is blowing tons of cash on a smaller number of offerings.

But the reality is Netflix is really the only service to start to deliver yield for investors

And like it or not that’s all that matters

Disney is being bolstered by Hulu…which the second most successful effort/offshoot.

D+ in its entirety is not filling the void of broadcast/cable…yet.

It may…certainly possible…but they’re gonna have to spend ALOT more on content.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disney Analyst said:
But given history, even without D+ we know that people would wait, as it would be released on some sort of streaming platform (like Netflix), or VOD rentals / purchases. Heck, back in the day some people would wait for it to show up at Blockbuster, or to maybe buy on VHS or DVD at a store. Of course, it does seem more people are waiting to view on their own terms outside a theatre than ever before, but you can't stop that train now that it has left the station.

So Disney doing this with their own platform ENSURES they are the ones getting the direct consumer dollar, at the price they want, vs a deal with another platform to host their content after the theatrical run.

The landscape has changed, forever. The audience is changing how they watch, it was inevitable.
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But video rentals/purchases was easily quantifiable revenues. No need to interpret and contort

This is all a sad multiple year “narrative” (and I apologize to the English language) to try and use the ambiguity of streaming services to try and gloss the problem:
Their movies are faltering. Particularly marvel. I don’t know why it can’t be acknowledged? Nobody here is causing it? It’s not personal.

They need to make changes. Which is good for us because if you have to come up with 8 angles how something is “better than people think…”…it’s not a good
Product
 
S

Serpico Jones

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Well one is blowing tons of cash on a smaller number of offerings.

But the reality is Netflix is really the only service to start to deliver yield for investors

And like it or not that’s all that matters

Disney is being bolstered by Hulu…which the second most successful effort/offshoot.

D+ in its entirety is not filling the void of broadcast/cable…yet.

It may…certainly possible…but they’re gonna have to spend ALOT more on content.
Click to expand...
Streaming will never replace the profits from the cable bundle, imo. It won’t even come close.
 
Phroobar

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
Just finished watching the Thunderbolts*. That movie was lack luster. The heroes did a lot of arguing and it got pretty dark literally and figuratively. The ending scene involving the F4 didn't make any sense after watching F4. I guess that all happens in the "next" movie. Sorry but Elaine with a superman knockoff name "Bob" that puts people into a phantom zone where they get to live out the darkest day of their life isn't big enough stakes. It's just disappointing. But at least I contributed $0.75 streaming cents to making this movie break even. Yeah.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Serpico Jones said:
Streaming will never replace the profits from the cable bundle, imo. It won’t even come close.
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adjusted for inflation? I would agree

Also the decision to “own” everything instead of framing out shows to third party producers is backfiring on them. The system was in balance when there was cost control at every level…and the shows had to show results from the network or get the heave. That created an environment that kept the costs in line and forces Hollywood to think to try to get more out of what they spent.

What did andor cost? $500 all in?
Imagine producing an old 22-26 show season now? And that’s what is missing from the stream shows. Time. A good show loses you in it.

And it was beautiful…

But return of the Jedi cost $33 mil with
1,000 practical effects shots.

Which means my house should cost like a billion dollars now
 
D

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Well one is blowing tons of cash on a smaller number of offerings.

But the reality is Netflix is really the only service to start to deliver yield for investors

And like it or not that’s all that matters

Disney is being bolstered by Hulu…which the second most successful effort/offshoot.

D+ in its entirety is not filling the void of broadcast/cable…yet.

It may…certainly possible…but they’re gonna have to spend ALOT more on content.
Click to expand...
Hulu is Disney now… no difference then studios of the past like Touchstone and Miramax…. So yes Hulu and ESPN should be included in the Disney subscriber base
 

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