Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

It definitely would matter from a Disney perspective. The original question was about hurting your theatrical releases to help D+. If people will be subscribed no matter what, then hurting your box office is not made up by the D+ subscription, you are leaving money on the table. Of course, with the Ad revenue now, that is another factor, so that could also be making up some of that theatrical losses.

I mean I guess I see your point to an extent. But if the sub watches the movie either way on D+ why does Disney care all that much on the "whys"? They still get the revenue either way.

So ultimately why would they care if someone is continuing to sub to watch the new movies, or just watches the new movies because they sub, the money is still the same. Its 6 of one and half a dozen to the all, the end result is the same.

I really think this is trying to get into the weeds too much to try to prove something that in reality only matters if you only see theatrical as the "only money that matters" and everything else as "less than".

 

[LSLS]

I mean I guess I see your point to an extent. But if the sub watches the movie either way on D+ why does Disney care all that much on the "whys"? They still get the revenue either way.

So ultimately why would they care if someone is continuing to sub to watch the new movies, or just watches the new movies because they sub, the money is still the same. Its 6 of one and half a dozen to the all, the end result is the same.

I really think this is trying to get into the weeds too much to try to prove something that in reality only matters if you only see theatrical as the "only money that matters" and everything else as "less than".

But if they aren't subbing just to watch that movie, they aren't getting the revenue either way. If someone would go see a movie at the theater and still keep their D+ subscription, Disney would get $10 from the subscription and $5 from the movie watch. If that same person decides not to go to the movies anymore because "Eh, I can wait a few months", they went from collecting $15 off that person to just $10. That $10 was going to come in no matter what if they aren't subbing just to see new movies. Now, like I said, what that doesn't factor in how ad revenue is working, so take that as another large consideration, but it's not about they watch it either way because they don't make money off it either way if the person is not subscribing just to see the new movies coming out to streaming, and wouldn't be subscribed if they had to wait longer.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But if they aren't subbing just to watch that movie, they aren't getting the revenue either way. If someone would go see a movie at the theater and still keep their D+ subscription, Disney would get $10 from the subscription and $5 from the movie watch. If that same person decides not to go to the movies anymore because "Eh, I can wait a few months", they went from collecting $15 off that person to just $10. That $10 was going to come in no matter what if they aren't subbing just to see new movies. Now, like I said, what that doesn't factor in how ad revenue is working, so take that as another large consideration, but it's not about they watch it either way because they don't make money off it either way if the person is not subscribing just to see the new movies coming out to streaming, and wouldn't be subscribed if they had to wait longer.

…this is a really hard concept for like 6 people to grasp…

And the “new math” to splain it away only popped up when the Disney studios started tanking movies left and right

 

[Disney Irish]

But if they aren't subbing just to watch that movie, they aren't getting the revenue either way. If someone would go see a movie at the theater and still keep their D+ subscription, Disney would get $10 from the subscription and $5 from the movie watch. If that same person decides not to go to the movies anymore because "Eh, I can wait a few months", they went from collecting $15 off that person to just $10. That $10 was going to come in no matter what if they aren't subbing just to see new movies. Now, like I said, what that doesn't factor in how ad revenue is working, so take that as another large consideration, but it's not about they watch it either way because they don't make money off it either way if the person is not subscribing just to see the new movies coming out to streaming, and wouldn't be subscribed if they had to wait longer.

This is circular logic and only matters if you only care about that $5 in the long term, which is short term revenue by the way.

Also I don't know how you can say that Disney doesn't get revenue if the user didn't sub specifically to see the movie but is still subbing anyways. That $10 is spent on the service, not the specific movie. Its not like the user says "only show me this movie and nothing else on the service". So if someone subs to see a particular movie and then unsubs they still get the $10 even if they didn't watch anything else, or vice-versa where they watch everything else but that movie. The only thing it affects is residuals paid out by Disney based on watch minutes and any additional ad revenue they would have made, which we don't care about in this context. But the fee was still paid in either scenario.

This was the same argument made about software subscription services years ago. How will a particular software get revenue if the user isn't subbing for that specific software. This is all internal stuff that gets figured out based on usage.

Again this only matters if all you see is box office as the "only money that matters". And so yes in the short term they may lose out on that $5 but in the long term they make more based on the continual sub. The economics show that its the long term revenue that matters, not the short term loss.

 

[Disney Analyst]

But if they aren't subbing just to watch that movie, they aren't getting the revenue either way. If someone would go see a movie at the theater and still keep their D+ subscription, Disney would get $10 from the subscription and $5 from the movie watch. If that same person decides not to go to the movies anymore because "Eh, I can wait a few months", they went from collecting $15 off that person to just $10. That $10 was going to come in no matter what if they aren't subbing just to see new movies. Now, like I said, what that doesn't factor in how ad revenue is working, so take that as another large consideration, but it's not about they watch it either way because they don't make money off it either way if the person is not subscribing just to see the new movies coming out to streaming, and wouldn't be subscribed if they had to wait longer.

But given history, even without D+ we know that people would wait, as it would be released on some sort of streaming platform (like Netflix), or VOD rentals / purchases. Heck, back in the day some people would wait for it to show up at Blockbuster, or to maybe buy on VHS or DVD at a store. Of course, it does seem more people are waiting to view on their own terms outside a theatre than ever before, but you can't stop that train now that it has left the station.

So Disney doing this with their own platform ENSURES they are the ones getting the direct consumer dollar, at the price they want, vs a deal with another platform to host their content after the theatrical run.

The landscape has changed, forever. The audience is changing how they watch, it was inevitable.

 

[Disney Irish]

…this is a really hard concept for like 6 people to grasp…

And the “new math” to splain it away only popped up when the Disney studios started tanking movies left and right

Whats funny is its not new math, its old math if you have followed any industry in the last couple 100 years. Subscription models aren't new, and neither is its math.

Its an old model being applied to an old industry. Some such as yourself are just having a hard time accepting the change, which is fine. The industry will change whether some can accept it or not.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Again this only matters if all you see is box office as the "only money that matters". And so yes in the short term they may lose out on that $5 but in the long term they make more based on the continual sub. The economics show that its the long term revenue that matters, not the short term loss.

It’s not the only money that matters but it is still money. I think someone mentioned that the movies that are most successful in streaming tend to be the ones that did well in the theaters also. The ideal for Disney would be people watching their movies in the theaters and on Disney+/VOD/Blu-ray.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s not the only money that matters but it is still money. I think someone mentioned that the movies that are most successful in streaming tend to be the ones that did well in the theaters also. The ideal for Disney would be people watching their movies in the theaters and on Disney+/VOD/Blu-ray.

And I'm not disputing that. But as pointed out by @Disney Analyst and others including myself the idea is that Disney is still trying to make sure they capture those that will wait anyways and not go to the theaters. So if that means giving up short term revenue from theatrical to gain long term revenue from DTC, I think they are fine with that.

As saying goes the genie is out of the bottle already anyways, there is no putting it back.

Also Disney is already has the longest release window in terms of waiting to push movies to digital/streaming. So they already are trying to get both.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Bad Guys 2 doing about the same as Elio is pretty surprising

 

[Disney Analyst]

Bad Guys 2 doing about the same as Elio is pretty surprising

try not to be surprised, audience dynamic makes no sense these days.

 

[easyrowrdw]

And I'm not disputing that. But as pointed out by @Disney Analyst and others including myself the idea is that Disney is still trying to make sure they capture those that will wait anyways and not go to the theaters. So if that means giving up short term revenue from theatrical to gain long term revenue from DTC, I think they are fine with that.

As saying goes the genie is out of the bottle already anyways, there is no putting it back.

Also Disney is already has the longest release window in terms of waiting to push movies to digital/streaming. So they already are trying to get both.

Okay, it does matter. I didn’t get that from your prior message but I gotcha now. We’ll see how it plays out. I’m curious how things progress over the years. When MCU movies are going from 700-1,000+ million to 400-600 million, what impact does that have on post-theatrical?

Anecdotally, I haven’t kept Disney+ for any of their recent output. It’s pretty much just Bluey and the back catalog. I wonder sometimes if it would be better to just load up on used dvds lol

 

[Disney Irish]

Okay, it does matter. I didn’t get that from your prior message but I gotcha now. We’ll see how it plays out. I’m curious how things progress over the years. When MCU movies are going from 700-1,000+ million to 400-600 million, what impact does that have on post-theatrical?

Anecdotally, I haven’t kept Disney+ for any of their recent output. It’s pretty much just Bluey and the back catalog. I wonder sometimes if it would be better to just load up on used dvds lol

None of this stuff happens in a vacuum. The MCU stuff for example is not isolated to just the D+ impact or just one thing, its a whole hosts of things that caused it to get less at the box office, including but not limited lower quality movies and even no event movies being released post-Endgame. I've long said that the MCU expectations needed to be reset because you couldn't keep expecting every movie to do $750M-$1B+ forever, its unsustainable, not every movie is going to be a hit.

Anyways yes we'll all have a front seat to see how the whole market will play out.

 

[DKampy]

Funny that the same people who want to say Netflix is a success with no theatrical… want to say Disney is a failure… they are both the top 2 streaming services

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So the 3 marvel entries this year land at 8,9, and 10 global for the year…followed by 2 horror flicks?

…and how isn’t that a disaster? Use small
Words please

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Funny that the same people who want to say Netflix is a success with no theatrical… want to say Disney is a failure… they are both the top 2 streaming services

Well one is blowing tons of cash on a smaller number of offerings.

But the reality is Netflix is really the only service to start to deliver yield for investors

And like it or not that’s all that matters

Disney is being bolstered by Hulu…which the second most successful effort/offshoot.

D+ in its entirety is not filling the void of broadcast/cable…yet.

It may…certainly possible…but they’re gonna have to spend ALOT more on content.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But given history, even without D+ we know that people would wait, as it would be released on some sort of streaming platform (like Netflix), or VOD rentals / purchases. Heck, back in the day some people would wait for it to show up at Blockbuster, or to maybe buy on VHS or DVD at a store. Of course, it does seem more people are waiting to view on their own terms outside a theatre than ever before, but you can't stop that train now that it has left the station.

So Disney doing this with their own platform ENSURES they are the ones getting the direct consumer dollar, at the price they want, vs a deal with another platform to host their content after the theatrical run.

The landscape has changed, forever. The audience is changing how they watch, it was inevitable.

But video rentals/purchases was easily quantifiable revenues. No need to interpret and contort

This is all a sad multiple year “narrative” (and I apologize to the English language) to try and use the ambiguity of streaming services to try and gloss the problem:
Their movies are faltering. Particularly marvel. I don’t know why it can’t be acknowledged? Nobody here is causing it? It’s not personal.

They need to make changes. Which is good for us because if you have to come up with 8 angles how something is “better than people think…”…it’s not a good
Product

 

[Serpico Jones]

Funny that the same people who want to say Netflix is a success with no theatrical… want to say Disney is a failure… they are both the top 2 streaming services

You forgot about YouTube and Amazon Prime.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Well one is blowing tons of cash on a smaller number of offerings.

But the reality is Netflix is really the only service to start to deliver yield for investors

And like it or not that’s all that matters

Disney is being bolstered by Hulu…which the second most successful effort/offshoot.

D+ in its entirety is not filling the void of broadcast/cable…yet.

It may…certainly possible…but they’re gonna have to spend ALOT more on content.

Streaming will never replace the profits from the cable bundle, imo. It won’t even come close.

 

[Phroobar]

Just finished watching the Thunderbolts*. That movie was lack luster. The heroes did a lot of arguing and it got pretty dark literally and figuratively. The ending scene involving the F4 didn't make any sense after watching F4. I guess that all happens in the "next" movie. Sorry but Elaine with a superman knockoff name "Bob" that puts people into a phantom zone where they get to live out the darkest day of their life isn't big enough stakes. It's just disappointing. But at least I contributed $0.75 streaming cents to making this movie break even. Yeah.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Streaming will never replace the profits from the cable bundle, imo. It won’t even come close.

adjusted for inflation? I would agree

Also the decision to “own” everything instead of framing out shows to third party producers is backfiring on them. The system was in balance when there was cost control at every level…and the shows had to show results from the network or get the heave. That created an environment that kept the costs in line and forces Hollywood to think to try to get more out of what they spent.

What did andor cost? $500 all in?
Imagine producing an old 22-26 show season now? And that’s what is missing from the stream shows. Time. A good show loses you in it.

And it was beautiful…

But return of the Jedi cost $33 mil with
1,000 practical effects shots.

Which means my house should cost like a billion dollars now