Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

That as good clip…brings up a lot of good points

On one hand…it kinda exonerates the current superhero struggles…on the other it condemns it to more failures in the short term. It doesn’t “redefine” what failure is…which only a fool tries to.

Its only a "fool" who tries to continue to use old world metrics to label what a "failure" is in 2020s post-pandemic era as if nothing has changed. Which is partially the point of the video.

 

[Tha Realest]

This touches on the prospects of an increasingly worrisome trend for the MCU.

Fantastic Four: First Steps isn't generating much hype for Doomsday

Moviegoers aren't flocking to Fantastic Four: First Steps, the third underwhelming box office showing for Marvel Studios in 2025.

www.polygon.com

 

[Nevermore525]

Actual Studio Sector Results for Q3 25:

Prior Quarter:

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Actual Studio Sector Results for Q3 25:

View attachment 875267

Prior Quarter:

View attachment 875268

Disney’s Q3 2025 earnings:
Film business struggled with a $21M operating loss, hit by weak theatrical releases like Elio, Thunderbolts

Streaming success, posting a $346M profit (up from a $19M loss) with Disney+ at 128M subs and Hulu at 55.5M, driven by higher rates and cost cuts.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Interesting from the earnings report yesterday:

“during Disney’s Q3 FY2025 earnings report on August 6, 2025, CEO Bob Iger announced the full integration of Hulu into Disney+, which includes phasing out the standalone Hulu app in favor of a unified streaming experience”

 

[Tha Realest]

'Fantastic Four' Box Office Dive Is a Bad Omen for Marvel's Future

The 66% drop for Fantastic Four's second weekend at the box office is a bad sign for the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

www.thewrap.com

 

[Nevermore525]

Box Office: ‘Freakier Friday’ and ‘Weapons’ Battle for First Place Over ‘Fantastic Four’

It could be a close race for first place at the box office as "Freakier Friday" and "Weapons" target similar debuts.

variety.com

Freakier Friday this weekend. $42M budget

 

[Serpico Jones]

Hollywood content creation and distribution needs a radical overhaul. Hollywood content should be distributed primarily via the internet.

 

[BlindChow]

'Fantastic Four' Box Office Dive Is a Bad Omen for Marvel's Future

The 66% drop for Fantastic Four's second weekend at the box office is a bad sign for the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

www.thewrap.com

It would have done better if not for Johnny Storm's terrible wig.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Hollywood content creation and distribution needs a radical overhaul. Hollywood content should be distributed primarily via the internet.

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

 

[JackCH]

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

In my area I've noticed the huge theaters are often way below capacity, but there is a much smaller Cinemark with reclining chairs and good food that is almost always filled.

 

[Ghost93]

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

 

[Tha Realest]

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

I mean, I took my son last week to finally see JWR. It was great! We loved the experience! But we dropped $21 on the experience. I can “buy” it today for $24 (Gruv+coupon).

We are solo once again Saturday. Looked to see times for FF and price ranges from $9-$20/ticket (latter for only IMAX showing at 10am). Passing on it - going to go on a bike riding adventure and may buy it when it drops to below $15 or just wait until it’s on D+ around Thanksgiving or so. And this is a film I’ve been wanting to experience in the theater.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

I’m talking more from a timeframe perspective, when a theater has 20 screens they tend to show movies for a couple months even if those theaters are empty, if they had 4 screens they’d likely only show a film for 2-3 weeks and then it would be gone. I think that would bring back the feeling of it being an event you can’t miss. I can recall standing in huge lines as a kid to see Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Titanic, etc… there was a real FOMO affect because seats were limited and you only had a few weeks before it was gone.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

So excited to watch Wednesday tonight with family. Hope it’s great.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

I’m talking more from a timeframe perspective, when a theater has 20 screens they tend to show movies for a couple months even if those theaters are empty, if they had 4 screens they’d likely only show a film for 2-3 weeks and then it would be gone. I think that would bring back the feeling of it being an event you can’t miss. I can recall standing in huge lines as a kid to see Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Titanic, etc… there was a real FOMO affect because seats were limited and you only had a few weeks before it was gone.

The biggest issue with going back to limited screens is that back when they existed you had a long theatrical run, averaging 6 or more months. This was touched upon in the video up thread.

With the number of movies released in a year you likely couldn't do that. And it wouldn't be "profitable" to just have a couple movies releasing at a time for a couple weeks only. I understand the idea of trying to create "FOMO" but if that doesn't exist with the short theatrical windows we have now, not sure why you think it would be any different with a smaller number of screens and an even shorter theatrical window. People will still just wait it out and watch it at home, but in that scenario its an even smaller time to wait, couple weeks rather than a couple months as they do now. So yeah that doesn't create "FOMO", its the exact opposite its creates "NoFOMO" which is exactly what is happening right now.

 

[Disney Irish]

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

Its not "profitable" enough, yet....

If the theatrical model goes away you can bet that Hollywood will find a way to charge and recoup any cost mo matter how they are distributing the movies. Whether that means a more pure PVOD model, or changing more for subscriptions. For example I'd expect Disney is bring back the Premier Access feature on D+ if that day comes and change for first run movies.

We've already seen the "free" streaming services starting to be phased out by their owners in favor of the subscription model. So the "free lunch" era of streaming is ending.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

The marvel movies as loss leaders has stuck with me so I asked Grok:

“Likelihood of cinema becoming more of a loss leader for streaming (i.e., theatrical releases increasingly tolerated as unprofitable or low-margin to drive subscriber growth, content libraries, and engagement on platforms like Disney+, Netflix, etc.): 75%.
This higher probability aligns with the ongoing pivot where studios use theatrical as a “loss-mitigator” or feeder for streaming, evidenced by day-and-date releases eroding box office exclusivity and films outperforming on platforms after theater runs.”

So if that is true, you guys are more attuned to the box office to know, how will that change the cinema in the next 10 years?

 

[Disney Irish]

The marvel movies as loss leaders has stuck with me so I asked Grok:

“Likelihood of cinema becoming more of a loss leader for streaming (i.e., theatrical releases increasingly tolerated as unprofitable or low-margin to drive subscriber growth, content libraries, and engagement on platforms like Disney+, Netflix, etc.): 75%.
This higher probability aligns with the ongoing pivot where studios use theatrical as a “loss-mitigator” or feeder for streaming, evidenced by day-and-date releases eroding box office exclusivity and films outperforming on platforms after theater runs.”

So if that is true, you guys are more attuned to the box office to know, how will that change the cinema in the next 10 years?

In 10 years? I would say more than likely we see a few theater chains go under. In 15-20 years the theatrical model goes away completely. And this just isn't my opinion, theater owners themselves have a similar opinion, Variety did an article just in June saying similar -

Most U.S. Exhibition Execs Think ‘Traditional’ Moviegoing Has Less Than 20 Years as ‘Viable Business Model,’ According to New Survey

More than 50% of U.S. movie theater exhibition executives say they believe "traditional moviegoing" has less than 20 years as a viable business model.

variety.com

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The marvel movies as loss leaders has stuck with me so I asked Grok:

“Likelihood of cinema becoming more of a loss leader for streaming (i.e., theatrical releases increasingly tolerated as unprofitable or low-margin to drive subscriber growth, content libraries, and engagement on platforms like Disney+, Netflix, etc.): 75%.
This higher probability aligns with the ongoing pivot where studios use theatrical as a “loss-mitigator” or feeder for streaming, evidenced by day-and-date releases eroding box office exclusivity and films outperforming on platforms after theater runs.”

So if that is true, you guys are more attuned to the box office to know, how will that change the cinema in the next 10 years?

I don't know if loss leader would be seen as an acceptable approach. Streaming revenue certainly mitigates the risk of theatrical releases, but if they consistently lose money it's probably not sustainable. At that point Disney could go full Netflix and skip the theater completely.

I don't think this is super likely. Theatrical still makes money. Even if many movies need streaming to become profitable, it's still a net positive and there will always be big hits. Endgame doesn't happen, or isn't as big, without so-so performing movies like Ant-Man.

Theatrical releases still benefit home viewing because those movies have better production values and awareness. I'm more likely to buy or stream Thunderbolts at home because it's a theatrical product.