Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Continuing a Box Office Magic trend from last week, it's slightly weakened numbers probably had to do with the fact that the entire Western third of the country continued to be 4 to 7 degrees below normal through this weekend. In San Diego this past Saturday, it was downright chilly by the time Happy Hour was over at The Marine Room!

This weekend will really give us a much clearer picture. My honest guess they expect this at LEAST over $750 million.

In bad news for theater owners, as I suspected the cooler than normal June/July west of the Rockies is turning into a cooler than normal August east of the Rockies. That's not good news for theaters, but great news for hot dog stands at the beach!

 

[LSLS]

Weekend actuals are in and Superman did indeed cross $500 million worldwide. For all the talk of it underperforming outside the USA, it doesn't look like Fantastic Four is going to do significantly better and I expect both movies to have similar global totals. Superman is also closing the gap between it and Jurassic World at the domestic box office.

Honestly I feel like Superman should do better than F4. Beyond everything else, I will still contend Superman is a much bigger and well-known character than F4.

 

[BrianLo]

A reasonable surrogate for “is the company happy” is when they press release about metrics after the fact.

In fact there is currently a 1:1 correlation going on right now with when they brag about trailer viewership and 1B film.

Films they have bragged about metrics this year are Stitch obviously, Moana 2’s streaming numbers and this weekend of Fantastic 4. Notably they did not talk about Snow White, Cap 4, Thunderbolts nor Elio.

So while I can say neither Superman nor Fantastic Four set the entire world on fire in an unexpected blazing glory, they really both seem to be hitting numbers that are making their parent companies happy.

 

[Dranth]

Honestly I feel like Superman should do better than F4. Beyond everything else, I will still contend Superman is a much bigger and well-known character than F4.

Superman is certainly more well known, but personally I don't get how it is doing so well. I understand I am in the minority on this, but I felt it was an odd combination of boring, ham-fisted, and cheesy, particularly in the first half.

As for FF, I do wonder if it is a bit front loaded as the appetite for this movie seems pretty low from where I am sitting but I could have said the same thing about Superman and it is doing fine.

Maybe it is just me, but this entire year seems kind of blah for the box office.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A reasonable surrogate for “is the company happy” is when they press release about metrics after the fact.

In fact there is currently a 1:1 correlation going on right now with when they brag about trailer viewership and 1B film.

Films they have bragged about metrics this year are Stitch obviously, Moana 2’s streaming numbers and this weekend of Fantastic 4. Notably they did not talk about Snow White, Cap 4, Thunderbolts nor Elio.

So while I can say neither Superman nor Fantastic Four set the entire world on fire in an unexpected blazing glory, they really both seem to be hitting numbers that are making their parent companies happy.

Umm…that’s putting a narrative out there…so let’s see what the actual story looks like in a week or two?

I think you know better than to go for the shiny object on a slow news day

 

[BrianLo]

Umm…that’s putting a narrative out there…so let’s see what the actual story looks like in a week or two?

I think you know better than to go for the shiny object on a slow news day

The narrative is, is the company happy with the opening weekend. Not the total performance. There is no total performance yet. If they stop bragging about metrics long term, that answers that question.

For example they didn’t brag about Mufasa opening weekend but eventually left some performance metrics in their year end review.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The narrative is, is the company happy with the opening weekend. Not the total performance. There is no total performance yet. If they stop bragging about metrics long term, that answers that question.

For example they didn’t brag about Mufasa opening weekend but eventually left some performance metrics in their year end review.

The declaration is curious considering how much they emphasis has grown on “rebooting the MCU”…they’re likely not that Impressed with this…per se…but money is tightening across the board and they want to get some groundswell of support going at the box office

It’s smart. I want to see how it does this weekend? Neither it nor Superman will be a mega hit…but it seems clear from the Hollywood press articles that the powers that be want to make it good enough? Whether the math seems to say? will be debated.

Most is very positive…then there’s this Forbes hit piece:

‘Fantastic Four’ Underwhelms, ‘Superman’ Soars Higher At Box Office

What does the box office bow of "The Fantastic Four" tell us about the potential for Marvel's upcoming reset? And is "Superman" setting the stage for DC's own resurgence?

www.forbes.com

 

[DKampy]

The declaration is curious considering how much they emphasis has grown on “rebooting the MCU”…they’re likely not that Impressed with this…per se…but money is tightening across the board and they want to get some groundswell of support going at the box office

It’s smart. I want to see how it does this weekend? Neither it nor Superman will be a mega hit…but it seems clear from the Hollywood press articles that the powers that be want to make it good enough? Water the math seems to say.

Most is very positive…then there’s this Forbes hit piece:

‘Fantastic Four’ Underwhelms, ‘Superman’ Soars Higher At Box Office

What does the box office bow of "The Fantastic Four" tell us about the potential for Marvel's upcoming reset? And is "Superman" setting the stage for DC's own resurgence?

www.forbes.com

People need to wheel in their expectations…. No movie is making what it would of made pre-COVID

Jurassic was always a reliable billion dollar franchise….Rebirth is not going to come close to that money…Even Stitch would have made more…. I believe it would have been closer to The Lion King remake money…. There are just some people that got use to spending more time in the home

Both Superman’s and F4’s main priority was to change the narrative and not be an outright flop…I believe both have done that as most of of the chatter has been positive…. I think either franchise has enough data to keep going in this direction…. Unless F4 completely falls of a cliff and has one of the worse drops in history next weekend…. But I don’t see that happening with word of mouth and the upcoming competition in August

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

People need to wheel in their expectations…. No movie is making what it would of made pre-COVID

Jurassic was always a reliable billion dollar franchise….Rebirth is not going to come close to that money…Even Stitch would have made more…. I believe it would have been closer to The Lion King remake money…. There are just some people that got use to spending more time in the home

Both Superman’s and F4’s main priority was to change the narrative and not be an outright flop…I believe both have done that as most of of the chatter has been positive…. I think either franchise has enough data to keep going in this direction…. Unless F4 completely falls of a cliff and has one of the worse drops in history next weekend…. But I don’t see that happening with word of mouth and the upcoming competition in August

Well I sorta agree with you…

Not every whizz bang is gonna make alot of bank in the current theater business…but some certainly have. You just don’t get as many.

My personal theory is that a tentpole that’s decent might make 75-80ish % now what they had pre-Covid…things being equal.

But still…don’t give a pass for bad product or ideas. Just as wdw annual attendance went down by 5,000,000 or so after shutdown…there’s actually no real excuse for it now. It went “poof” and covid doesn’t play any more.

Movies that strike a cord will get em there still

 

[Tha Realest]

The Chris Evans FF made $333M, or $550M inflation adjusted to today. I think it’ll clear that? Maybe?

We’ll know soon enough…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We’ll know soon enough…

It probably gets over that…but not by too much

Just a guess

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The narrative is, is the company happy with the opening weekend. Not the total performance. There is no total performance yet. If they stop bragging about metrics long term, that answers that question.

For example they didn’t brag about Mufasa opening weekend but eventually left some performance metrics in their year end review.

I’d say that’s fair/accurate

Really interested in seeing how it goes now

 

[coffeefan]

An interesting tidbit: FF did better with younger demos. That should be encouraging to Marvel as they seek to do a reset with X-Men.

 

[TP2000]

The Fantastic Four opened in all countries around the world on the same weekend, so there'll be no waiting for Japan or China or even Portugal for the final box office tally on this one. And it underperformed overseas compared to the USA.

Can a $217-ish Million opening weekend globally get it to the $650-ish Million it needs globally to break even?

At least Disneyland got a new robot and a meet n' greet for their semi-abandoned Tomorrowland!

 

[MisterPenguin]

The Fantastic Four opened in all countries around the world on the same weekend, so there'll be no waiting for Japan or China or even Portugal for the final box office tally on this one. And it underperformed overseas compared to the USA.

Can a $217-ish Million opening weekend globally get it to the $650-ish Million it needs globally to break even?

At least Disneyland got a new robot and a meet n' greet for their semi-abandoned Tomorrowland!

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Budget was $200M.

Using the 2.5 multiplier rule, break even is $500M.

CinemaScore of A- has historically been a 3.4 multiplier of the opening weekend. That would put it at $737M global BO.

Net profit of $237M.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Boxoffice gurus of the hivemind of the internet are saying $500m is likely a best case scenario.

 

[Tha Realest]

CinemaScore of A- has historically been a 3.4 multiplier of the opening weekend. That would put it at $737M global BO.

Net profit of $237M.

We’ll see how this shakes out. I highly doubt it gets anywhere near that. By the looks of things it doesn’t seem to be legging out and early projections suggest a 60% drop this coming weekend.

 

[DKampy]

Well I sorta agree with you…

Not every whizz bang is gonna make alot of bank in the current theater business…but some certainly have. You just don’t get as many.

My personal theory is that a tentpole that’s decent might make 75-80ish % now what they had pre-Covid…things being equal.

But still…don’t give a pass for bad product or ideas. Just as wdw annual attendance went down by 5,000,000 or so after shutdown…there’s actually no real excuse for it now. It went “poof” and covid doesn’t play any more.

Movies that strike a cord will get em there still

I agree movies can still well…however I believe those movies that hit the zeitgeist would of done even better before 2020

Also there is no reason to believe Superman or F4 would have hit a billion…. As history says they would not have

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We’ll see how this shakes out. I highly doubt it gets anywhere near that. By the looks of things it doesn’t seem to be legging out and early projections suggest a 60% drop this coming weekend.

I’m scratching my head on any talking of $700…Superman isn’t gonna get there and it got more of a buzz bump after opening that this one has.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Looks like F4 did good yesterday.