Disney and Gas Prices

[Pepper's Ghost]

I doubt some minds will not change. Credit card debt have reached record levels during the last two years. I know a few who increase debt by continuing to go on vacation.

That said, I think it WILL change some minds. Plenty of people will not take trips to WDW because of gas prices and credit card debt. I personally think that will result in a rebound of people with money hearing about smaller crowds and will then book trips. I have no basis for that other than speculation.

 

[GimpYancIent]

My experiences off I-95, Roanoke Rapids, NC , Florence SC, Lumberton NC, Savannah GA , etc. Your experiences may be different

I am very familiar with that route, very familiar. It can be an adventure in driving.

 

[Kamikaze]

I could be wrong, but I think this is the opposite. Total credit card debt has gone down during the pandemic, pretty drastically actually. I don't claim to understand this because it's counterintuitive and I've been trying to understand, but this is a chart of what I've read....

Yes because people couldn't do a lot of things they wanted to and normally charge (WDW vacations, for a relevant example, but also dining out often) for fear of catching COVID or just overall closures. So for the people who had no change in job status, it was money that wasn't being spent on other things that could go to CC debt.

 

[Lilofan]

I am very familiar with that route, very familiar. It can be an adventure in driving.

Local cops ( NC, SC, GA ) love pulling over out of state drivers. When asked if they ask to search your vehicle , " I respectfully DO NOT consent to a search of my vehicle". I've seen cars pulled over I-95 , families standing outside their vehicle when sheriff bubba rips apart their vehicle. This adds to the adventure.

 

[chama1]

I doubt some minds will not change. Credit card debt have reached record levels during the last two years. I know a few who increase debt by continuing to go on vacation.

I remember it hit hard here in Florida....but credit card debt is another way some Disney diehards might make the decision that what you get now is not worth the price...I'm not saying many will not come but some will really have to justify spending so much for less...but I have to say during the summer, and Holiday seasons is where you'll see more spending...as it's the end of the 50 yrs Anniversary....

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

Local cops ( NC, SC, GA ) love pulling over out of state drivers. When asked if they ask to search your vehicle , " I respectfully DO NOT consent to a search of my vehicle". I've seen cars pulled over I-95 , families standing outside their vehicle when sheriff bubba rips apart their vehicle. This adds to the adventure.

Interesting. What do you say to sheriff bubba that is respectful, but essentially telling him to go eff himself? While I agree with you, I feel like it could end up in a bigger hassle if he's already intent on harassing you? I have absolutely nothing bubba could search me for and get me in trouble, but I don't like the violation without cause. Do you simply ask to see his search warrant, or is it more about helping you understand his probably cause?

 

[Married5Times]

Interesting. What do you say to sheriff bubba that is respectful, but essentially telling him to go eff himself?

tell him "I do not consent"

Too many times law enforcement searches are not square with Amend 4. Learn and practice "I do not consent" especially if you have something that can be used as evidence of a crime.

if you think the Mapp decision will save you these days, it won't. That Ship sailed away years back.

 

[Lilofan]

Interesting. What do you say to sheriff bubba that is respectful, but essentially telling him to go eff himself? While I agree with you, I feel like it could end up in a bigger hassle if he's already intent on harassing you? I have absolutely nothing bubba could search me for and get me in trouble, but I don't like the violation without cause. Do you simply ask to see his search warrant, or is it more about helping you understand his probably cause?

Pulled over for " improper lane change " asked to search , reply - I do not consent .

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

tell him "I do not consent"

Too many times law enforcement searches are not square with Amend 4. Learn and practice "I do not consent" especially if you have something that can be used as evidence of a crime.

if you think the Mapp decision will save you these days, it won't. That Ship sailed away years back.

Pulled over for " improper lane change " asked to search , reply - I do not consent .

That simple? Really? I would think it'd just pi$$ 'em off and tell you that you have to wait while they get a proper search warrant. Just seems like a likely outcome for effing with the 'em. I mean, while I say I have nothing to hide, I'm sure they could find anything and call it a weapon, especially for a guy who regularly drives around with tools in the back. I'm not a maintenance guy. I just find myself often being at a family or friend's house and they always ask if I can do X or Y so I always have a drill, hammer, tool kit, etc. in the back. With my luck I'd be driving through the town that has had a rash of hammer-bludgeon related crimes.

 

[Patcheslee]

That simple? Really? I would think it'd just **** 'em off and tell you that you have to wait while they get a proper search warrant. Just seems like a likely outcome for effing with the 'em. I mean, while I say I have nothing to hide, I'm sure they could find anything and call it a weapon, especially for a guy who regularly drives around with tools in the back. I'm not a maintenance guy. I just find myself often being at a family or friend's house and they always ask if I can do X or Y so I always have a drill, hammer, tool kit, etc. in the back. With my luck I'd be driving through the town that has had a rash of hammer-bludgeon related crimes.

Around here (BFE Indiana) it's 90% a guaranteed wait for a warrant, and usually the request for sobriety or drug test. If you refuse a test it's immediate arrest, cops will search anyway as part of protocol, and license is suspended for refusing test.
(I've been pulled over for my plate light being out, 2am Saturday, on the way to work. And cop wanted to do field sobriety test "because this is usually the time drunks are leaving the bar") I requested a supervisor and suddenly it wasn't important.

 

[Lilofan]

That simple? Really? I would think it'd just **** 'em off and tell you that you have to wait while they get a proper search warrant. Just seems like a likely outcome for effing with the 'em. I mean, while I say I have nothing to hide, I'm sure they could find anything and call it a weapon, especially for a guy who regularly drives around with tools in the back. I'm not a maintenance guy. I just find myself often being at a family or friend's house and they always ask if I can do X or Y so I always have a drill, hammer, tool kit, etc. in the back. With my luck I'd be driving through the town that has had a rash of hammer-bludgeon related crimes.

You are expanding too much, ask am I free to go after not consenting to a search ? Then on our way to FL!

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

Around here (BFE Indiana) it's 90% a guaranteed wait for a warrant, and usually the request for sobriety or drug test. If you refuse a test it's immediate arrest, cops will search anyway as part of protocol, and license is suspended for refusing test.
(I've been pulled over for my plate light being out, 2am Saturday, on the way to work. And cop wanted to do field sobriety test "because this is usually the time drunks are leaving the bar") I requested a supervisor and suddenly it wasn't important.

Ahh! Now that makes sense. Again, not sure what asking for a supervisor would do if they refused that request, but something to keep in mind. It's funny, aside from a heavy foot, I'm the most straight-laced guy. Don't get in trouble, and can't think of anything in my car to get me in trouble, but I still hate the whole thing where cops have the power to basically do or ask for whatever they want or make it miserable for you in the moment. I'm not saying all of 'em, but you get the wrong cop on the wrong night, and they can make it a bad night for you for no reason. It obviously happens all the time given how many times we see the abuse on TV. Again, I'm not saying all or even a lot of cops are like this. Just some bad apples like you find in all walks of life.

 

[Raxel7851]

I have been traveling to Florida even before I-95 was completed. IMHO the police in Yemassee SC are the worst for pulling people over. I was in the right hand lane going 5 mph under the speed limit, when a box truck passed me, saw the Yemassee officer in the median, then pulled right over in front of me and put the brakes on. He pulled me over for following too closely!!! It ended up being more like an interrogation. They separated my wife and I and asked us the same questions.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

You missed the point of my post by pulling out that single part of it. Which was - gas prices and turndowns in the economy have not overly affected crowds at WDW in the past and will not do so now.

No, I didn't miss that part of your post at all, thanks.

When I set a budget, nothing is in isolation, all spending comes from the same pool of funds. When fixed bills go up, discretionary funds go down. Vacation expenses fall into the discretionary portion of my budget.

As I said earlier in this thread, I have spent some time looking at WDW prices for decades. When the economy takes a downturn, WDW bookings do go down.

Ultimately though, WDW has somewhat been able mitigate the situation by offering last-minute discounts. I have taken advantage of a number of these offers over the last 20 years. I recall I once had Pop Century booked, but a last-minute deal = a free upgrade to Beach Club (for the same price I was originally going to pay).

In Easter week of 2002, I rode Big Thunder 20+ times in a row. It was crazy. There was no wait. If nobody was in your row (waiting to board), the CM's invited you to stay in your seat for a re-ride. About half of those 20+ rides, we just stayed in our seats.

After BTMRR, we went on Splash and it was the same. Nobody was waiting to board; CM's encouraged us to stay in our log for re-rides. We rode Splash 5-6 times without ever leaving our log.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

MK by year:

2020= 6,941,000
2019= 20,963,000 - another good year
2018 = 20,859,000 - a good year!
2017= 20,450,000 = up .25% from 2016, but still 42,000 fewer people than 2015
2016= MK fell .5% to 20,395,000
2015 = 20,492,000
2014 = 19,332,000
2013 = 18,558,000
2012 = 17,536,000
2011 = 17,142,000
2010 = 16,972,000 = down 1.5%
2009 = 17,233,000
2008 = 17,063,000 =flat
2007= 17,060,000

That's as far back as I could easily find.

[Just as an aside - Theme parks overall were down a whopping 67% percent last year. Increases are usually like 1-2%, so that's pretty stunning.]

When I searched for 2002, I found MK at 14,044,800, which was supposedly down 5% from 2001 (= not the same report). Epcot was down 8%, US was down 6%, but IoA actually went up10% in 2002. A side note says this is because Halloween Horror Nights was moved from US to IoA that year. Asia had a strong 2002; Europe was a bit mixed. Disneyland CA was able to mitigate a decline in travel by offering deep discounts to CA residents. Vegas' Circus Circus increased attendance that year by offering free admission. (source: Amusement Business Magazine via www.csus.edu)

So that supports what I posted above. When advance bookings go down, theme parks can improve actual attendance by offering discounts, sometimes deep discounts. Attendance is only part of the picture.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I specifically called out 9/11 and COVID as exceptions in my original post which the person I replied to conveniently cut out. Which is why I mentioned them cutting up my post to get the specific line that fit their narrative while ignoring the overall point.

Huh?

OP said, "in past decades, spiking gas prices really tamped down WDW."

You took that to mean only specifically the cost of gas to drive to directly to WDW.

In short, that isn't technically what OP asked.

My post was just a very minor clarification. That's all.

The thread is an opinion question of what we think might happen.
Precise what exactly = a 'huge' spike in gas prices?
Precisely what % drop in attendance = "a tamped down WDW?"

I don't know, because those are both very vague. OP didn't even ask us to predict any specific metrics, so any possible answer is just purely a matter of interpretation on multiple levels.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Interesting. What do you say to sheriff bubba that is respectful, but essentially telling him to go eff himself? While I agree with you, I feel like it could end up in a bigger hassle if he's already intent on harassing you? I have absolutely nothing bubba could search me for and get me in trouble, but I don't like the violation without cause. Do you simply ask to see his search warrant, or is it more about helping you understand his probably cause?

The laws have been a little murky. A car is not the same as your house when it comes to privacy and searches. It is a huge issue, one that has been debated by the Supreme Court for decades, so just way too big an issue for this thread.

In some cases, the police can search your car. You are not allowed to drive drunk, for example.

In other cases, simply traveling with a 'large' amount of cash/property has resulted in that cash/property being confiscated. It is called civil forfeiture.

 

[Kristamouse]

I plan on using magic to get to the parks. The price of gas is irrelevant!

I thought everyone did that?

We travel by Map similar to magic but more muppet fur less fairy dust

 

[Married5Times]

A car is not the same as your house when it comes to privacy and searches.

not so fast with that......
depends big time. There are some who use car as a home. Yes, it's been tested.

furhtermore, law enforcement or those acting in an agency capacity are not empowered to search unless there is some good faith basis. There needs to be something, anything like what looks like a hash pipe laying on the floor or what appears to be blood on a trunk door. they don't get to just order us out of a car and start searching without some lawful basis unless we give them consent.

and on to a somewhat related note we should dump all that 'driving is a privilege, not a right" nonsense in the first trashcan at the next rest stop on Interstate 10.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Just chiming in to say Tybee Island seems like an outlier here. As someone who goes to the southern NC coast multiple times a year, and has also been to the Outer Banks, Charleston, Hilton Head, Sea Island, both sides of the Florida coast (as well as other non-southeastern beaches)... Tybee Island is mediocre at best. Savannah itself is a cool city with some great food, but there's not much to recommend about Tybee Island to me.

I've only been there once myself, and it was only for one day. The restaurant where I dined was fun and very popular, but I have a soft spot for crab shacks. I think it was simply called, "The Crab Shack."

A very friendly woman seated near us struck up a lovely conversation, so that was part of the fun. The staff was also super sweet and friendly. It was, in short, the kind of friendly service WDW used to offer.

A special thing that used to happen frequently at WDW was that random strangers would often strike up a conversation on the bus and boat rides, and maybe while waiting for a show to start or in ride queue. It used to happen all the time, because people were just happy. They'd maybe share a paper FP they didn't need, or tell you about the great meal they'd just had, some little tip, or some little fun surprise that had made them smile that day. People were just so happy to be at WDW, their enthusiasm just bubbled over.

I miss that.