News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Rodan75]

DoJ's behavior is based on the assumption that they'll win the AT&T-TW case handily and then be able to impose restrictions on Comcast-NBCU by threatening a lawsuit to break them up under the precedent set by the AT&T-TW case.

But if the case goes the other way, then their reaction will have to be different. I don't see how the DoJ tries to impose heavy restrictions on Comcast-Fox if AT&T is allowed to purchase TW with just arbitration clauses on Turner's negotiations with other distributors. The judge is going to issue a generalizable ruling on vertical mergers which will be applied to all of the other vertical mergers pending right now (like CVS-Aetna) where market share (in any definable market) won't increase as a result of the merger.

Regardless, the market is completely different now in 2018 compared to 2011 when Comcast-NBCU was decided with multiple powerful online content providers. It's just hard for me to see why TW or Fox have a lot of content in a world where YouTube and FaceBook have billions of hours of content constantly being generated and where Netflix and Amazon Prime have over 100 million subscribers each. Even premium content is no longer just controlled by the Big 6 studios.

The scale for Comcast - Fox is much different than the scale for ATT - TW, that is why I don't think the precedent will stand. Not that it won't give Comcast more confidence to proceed, I just don't think it provides a real legal justification.

To be honest, I'm surprised Murdoch didn't break up the parts of 21CF and sell each component to the highest bidder. Unless he thinks some of those components are simply not worth the whole of what they are getting from Disney.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, article 11, states: "Everyone charged with a penal offence has the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law in a public trial at which he has had all the guarantees necessary for his defence." And due to supreme court rulings, corporations are people now so....

I realize there's some tongue-in-cheekiness here, but it's important to remember that innocent until proven guilty in a court of law applies to how the government treats a citizen (or a corporation deemed as a citizen by certain crazies).

If I take something of yours without permission, it's theft. If it was a cookie, you probably wouldn't seek justice in a court of law, but you would make darn sure not to let me near your cookies again because you know I'm a cookie monster. You know that I'm a thief and you will treat me as one and that is perfectly legal to do so. The government can't treat me like a thief until it's proven in a court of law.

So, shareholders can certainly discriminate against Comcast for its unethical and maybe (or likely) illegal activities, and they can do so legally. And they have the freedom of conscience to hold a negative opinion of Comcast and let that inform their decisions.

 

[Crossfire]

I just don't see Comcast winning anything here. I agree pretty much with everything said by these analysts:
https://www.fiercecable.com/cable/comcast-fox-deal-not-gonna-happen-analysts-say

 

[Stripes]

Anyone remember this? I have to deal with this kind of garbage on a nearly monthly basis.

 

[Donaldfan1934]

Depends how much higher, Comcast's offer would be better regardless (i.e. you could sell all the money you made from the Comcast sale and buy it all on Disney stock). Very valid point regarding the biggest shareholders. If Comcast is gonna get that much in debt, there's a big chance I'm dumping my CMCSA shares.

Also, because I have seen it on this thread, allow me to explain why Marvel rights that Comcast has is overrated.

1) Hulk first rights of refusal - not worth a lot to Disney as they can use Hulk whenever they want in a team up movie. I assume it's the same with his supporting characters as well. How much would any sane person pay for such rights? At most Disney will combine this with number 2 and exchange them for any Dreamwork rights they will acquire as part of the Fox acquisition (i.e. VOD and possibly streaming distribution rights up to 2017) and maybe cash. Maybe.
2) Namor rights - It is not clear what Namor rights, if any, Comcast owns. It is widely believed that it is similar to Hulk's as Feige said no one else can produce a Namor movie except Marvel. It stands to reason that the rights here are not worth much either.
3) Orlando theme park rights - This seems to be the biggest one as WDW is the biggest theme park resort in the world and having an MCU presence there would be huge. However, Disney is in expansion mode in parks as hinted by Iger. And they can use Marvel any and everywhere except Orlando and Japan (for Spiderman). Already announced for Disneyland Paris, California, and HK. Marvel lands will be available to be build on more Disneylands as they expand more and more parks around the world. India, 2nd/3rd China resort, Latin America, Middle East, South Korea, 2nd Europe, a 3rd resort in the US (certain to be west of the Mississippi, i.e. Texas), etc. Not worth that much to Disney when you think about it. Certainly not the outlandish figure Comcast would ask for.

Does Disney want them? Yes. Do I want Disney to have them? Yes. Is it a necessity? Not really. It's more like the Oswald IP, if it's there and it's a decent trade, then they will do it otherwise the status quo is fine with them.

While I agree with almost everything you have to say here, I think you're underestimating the potential for a decent Oswald style trade for theme park rights if Comcast were to snatch up the Fox assests. This is because unlike in the past, Comcast would now have similar stakes in the situation.

From Comcast's perspective, they will obtain the rights to the lucrative Fox owned Marvel franchises, but will not be able to take advantage of them in their theme parks outside of Orlando. And even then, turning Marvel Superhero Island into a movie based land rather than a comic based land would present thematic problems for the Marvel franchises that they wouldn't own the film rights too.

I also think we have to consider that Disney may be somewhat less content with the Universal situation than they were in years past. We're now at a point where the MCU is crushing all the competition at the box office and is one of the very few IP's that is universally beloved in its current state. For a company who's theme park expansion plans are mainly based on turning most of its parks into IP hubs, I have no doubt the situation at the Florida parks will become more and more problematic in their eyes.

This isn't to say Disney is dying to make a deal since this is very much like the Oswald situation where it will only happen if it is convenient. But if Comcast does succeed in its bid, a renegotiation of the Marvel contract would become beneficial to both parties. Comcast would maintain their rights for the Fox owned Marvel Properties and would now be able to use them beyond the Orlando parks, whereas Disney would be able to take advantage of every character that will or does exist in the MCU at all of their parks worldwide. To be clear, I know this type of thing wouldn't be among Disney's top priorities if the Fox deal were to slip from under them as there would be much more important and immediate consequences that they'll have to deal with. However, if the situation does present itself, it would be smart of Dsney to make their move on this once the dust settles.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

 

[seascape]

So all that we know is that both Disney and Comcast will receive government approval to buy Sky. This does not change anything. All Disney has to do is match Comcasts bid. It will cost a little more but so what.

A bigger fear Comcast should have is that based on Chineese law Disney has to keep lots of their Studio profits made in China in China. In other words Disney will have tons of money made in China to expand their Chineese theme parks. They also have profits from Shanghai Disney to use while Comcast is spending money in China. The war that Robert's started will be won by Disney. The only way Comcast gets Sky is to pay Disney their full share of the 31 billion plus give up the rights to everything Marvel they have. Disney does not care about the few attractions Universal has in Orlando. WDW will be known as the home to Marvel Characters in Orlando no matter what happens. Everyone knows Guardians of the Galaxy is Marvel. Dr. Strange is Marvel. Ant Man is Marvel. And more and more. Remember there is wording in the contract that incidental use such as pictures does not count as using the character. Lets see what the lawyers come up with and that there were many posters here that said no Marvel character would ever show up at WDW.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

So all that we know is that both Disney and Comcast will receive government approval to buy Sky. This does not change anything. All Disney has to do is match Comcasts bid. It will cost a little more but so what.

A bigger fear Comcast should have is that based on Chineese law Disney has to keep lots of their Studio profits made in China in China. In other words Disney will have tons of money made in China to expand their Chineese theme parks. They also have profits from Shanghai Disney to use while Comcast is spending money in China. The war that Robert's started will be won by Disney. The only way Comcast gets Sky is to pay Disney their full share of the 31 billion plus give up the rights to everything Marvel they have. Disney does not care about the few attractions Universal has in Orlando. WDW will be known as the home to Marvel Characters in Orlando no matter what happens. Everyone knows Guardians of the Galaxy is Marvel. Dr. Strange is Marvel. Ant Man is Marvel. And more and more. Remember there is wording in the contract that incidental use such as pictures does not count as using the character. Lets see what the lawyers come up with and that there were many posters here that said no Marvel character would ever show up at WDW.

What Chinese law is that? I'm not educated enough on it, can you link me to an article that explains it? I know if they want to repatriate the money now they could and pay lower taxes (one time thing). Iger has already hinted at a 2nd DLS park and other Disneyland resorts in China, so it could happen relatively soon.

I don't know if it makes sense to give up Sky though. As you allude to, it's worth more than the few Marvel rights Comcast still holds.

 

[Rodan75]

I would have to imagine that given the regulatory complications of Fox's offer for SKY, that it doesn't make sense that Fox counters. But it will be interesting to see if Disney counters in the next week or so. Waiting until June 15th to counter feels like too long.

 

[Rodan75]

So all that we know is that both Disney and Comcast will receive government approval to buy Sky. This does not change anything. All Disney has to do is match Comcasts bid. It will cost a little more but so what.

A bigger fear Comcast should have is that based on Chineese law Disney has to keep lots of their Studio profits made in China in China. In other words Disney will have tons of money made in China to expand their Chineese theme parks. They also have profits from Shanghai Disney to use while Comcast is spending money in China. The war that Robert's started will be won by Disney. The only way Comcast gets Sky is to pay Disney their full share of the 31 billion plus give up the rights to everything Marvel they have. Disney does not care about the few attractions Universal has in Orlando. WDW will be known as the home to Marvel Characters in Orlando no matter what happens. Everyone knows Guardians of the Galaxy is Marvel. Dr. Strange is Marvel. Ant Man is Marvel. And more and more. Remember there is wording in the contract that incidental use such as pictures does not count as using the character. Lets see what the lawyers come up with and that there were many posters here that said no Marvel character would ever show up at WDW.

I don't think this is a zero sum game, likely both Comcast and Disney will come out of this as winners with victories, from a certain point of view at least (and likely Murdoch as the richest winner).

It is in Disney's best interest for the foreseeable future that Comcast's cable business remain robust. So it doesn't make sense for Disney to be as 'vengeful' as Roberts' has been perceived (although I don't view any of this as a personal grudge).

 

[Indy_UK]

So Disney will need to offer to buy the rest of SKY themselves and then gain the other 39% through buying Fox, because Fox have been rejected from buying the remainder haven't they?

 

[seascape]

So Disney will need to offer to buy the rest of SKY themselves and then gain the other 39% through buying Fox, because Fox have been rejected from buying the remainder haven't they?

Fox has not been denied yet. They received an initial negative ruling but the final decision has not been made made. Fox offered some different solutions. In any case the government ruled that even if Fox were denied in the final ruling that if Disney purchased Fox they would have to offer to buy the rest of Sky. This is a complicated case especially with Comcasts offer but all Disney has to do is match Comcasts offer and they win. That is why if Comcast actually wants Sky they have to win the Fox battle or give something else to Disney.

 

[seascape]

I don't think this is a zero sum game, likely both Comcast and Disney will come out of this as winners with victories, from a certain point of view at least (and likely Murdoch as the richest winner).

It is in Disney's best interest for the foreseeable future that Comcast's cable business remain robust. So it doesn't make sense for Disney to be as 'vengeful' as Roberts' has been perceived (although I don't view any of this as a personal grudge).

It is in the counties interest that Comcast remain a robust cable and broadband company for the foreseeable future. That is why everyone should be against Comcasts cash deal for Fox and Sky. It is just too much debt when billions more are needed for 5G service and studio production. Disney even with the purchase of Fox is adding 14 billion in existing Fox debt and the 23 billion it will cost to match Comcasts offer for Sky. On top of that it has been estimated that 30 billion will have to be added to content production over the next 5 years to compete with Netflix. This is money Comcast cannot afford to borrow if they win Fox and Sky. If Comcast could agree to stock transact

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I don't think this is a zero sum game, likely both Comcast and Disney will come out of this as winners with victories, from a certain point of view at least (and likely Murdoch as the richest winner).

It is in Disney's best interest for the foreseeable future that Comcast's cable business remain robust. So it doesn't make sense for Disney to be as 'vengeful' as Roberts' has been perceived (although I don't view any of this as a personal grudge).

Using that logic it would make sense for Disney execs to let go off Sky and get a healthy amount of cash + everything Marvel Comcast owns in return. Giving up Sky is a pretty big deal though.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Come to Pennsylvania. Everywhere but the Harrisburg area is terrible. You will change your mind very quickly. But Florida's roads are pretty nice, thanks to not having any snow.

I had a heart attack when I nailed a pothole head on with the RS. I'm amazed I didn't have a blow or bent rim. Somehow the rubber band of a tire didn't give out.

Wow I'm off topic. I'll shut up now.

Penndot hate is always appreciated

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Using that logic it would make sense for Disney execs to let go off Sky and get a healthy amount of cash + everything Marvel Comcast owns in return. Giving up Sky is a pretty big deal though.

Why would disney want Comcast’s marvel piece? That’s a legit question?

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Why would disney want Comcast’s marvel piece? That’s a legit question?

Good question. Why nit make people travel to WDW and DLR to see different attractions.
WDW will have the real ToT, the rat ride, The Mickey Mouse ride, GotG and Tron just to make a few rides.
DLR will have their Marvel Land with the big name characters.

 

[mikejs78]

Why would disney want Comcast’s marvel piece? That’s a legit question?

Marvel is a huge IP for Disney. Building more Marvel in Orlando means more opps for merch sales.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Marvel is a huge IP for Disney. Building more Marvel in Orlando means more opps for merch sales.

Universal pays them for the property and sells merchandise.

Which means the profit level is 100% to Disney from IOA.

Come on...that was an easy one

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Universal pays them for the property and sells merchandise.

Which means the profit level is 100% to Disney from IOA.

Come on...that was an easy one

BS. Marvel gets crumbs from their current deal.