News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[the.dreamfinder]

Because certain people think all Disney cares about are theme parks.

They pay the bills. They saved the company from the demise of the film studio in the 70s/early 80s. They make more money than troubled child ESPN. And most importantly, they are Disney.

Please tell me how ABC or ESPN or Sky or 20th Century Fox are Disney.

 

[VJ]

They pay the bills. They saved the company from the demise of the film studio in the 70s/early 80s. They make more money than troubled child ESPN. And most importantly, they are Disney.

Please tell me how ABC or ESPN or Sky or 20th Century Fox are Disney.

You're missing my point. Disney doesn't care enough about Marvel theme park rights to make a trade. Insiders have said that both parties (Disney and Universal) are perfectly fine with the arrangement.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

You're missing my point. Disney doesn't care enough about Marvel theme park rights to make a trade. Insiders have said that both parties (Disney and Universal) are perfectly fine with the arrangement.

Given the context, that’s fair.

 

[Stripes]

An interesting thing to watch for is the Sports Betting case the Sumpreme Court will issue. According to the newspapers the decision could come soon, before the AT&T case. If it does, it will be interesting to see how much Disney stock goes up because of ESPN. I just cant see why any Fox stockholder would ever vote for Comcast over Disney.

Even if money is very important so is history and customer service and as someone who has enough money and cares more about the future and people, I could never ever support a company as bad as Comcast even if they have one good division. The rest of the company only cares about money and power. They also hate unions as their animation studios under pay their employees and keep the unions out and there Florida parks also keep the unions out.

...and sports betting is now legal. 7-2 decision, PASPA ruled unconstitutional.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

...and sports betting is now legal. 7-2 decision, PASPA ruled unconstitutional.

Wouldja look at that.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Saw something that reminded me why the Fox acquisition should be blocked. Disney is the only movie studio to top $3 billion in domestic box office in a year (and this year looks likely to be the second time they do it). So, with this proposed acquisition, the biggest movie studio would get even bigger. This isn't OK in other industries, why would it be OK here?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Saw something that reminded me why the Fox acquisition should be blocked. Disney is the only movie studio to top $3 billion in domestic box office in a year (and this year looks likely to be the second time they do it). So, with this proposed acquisition, the biggest movie studio would get even bigger. This isn't OK in other industries, why would it be OK here?

It has absolutely nothing to do with box office. Creating successful movies doesn't hurt other studios' abilities to make movies of their own. If there are any regulatory concerns with the merger, the movie studios will have nothing to do with it.

Also, the current incarnations of LucasFilm and Marvel Studios were close to $0 box office draws when they were acquired by Disney. Disney built them into what they are today organically.

Also, "cinema entertainment" is not an industry for competitiveness purposes. Even if one studio generated 98% of cinema box office revenue, they're still competing against stage shows, cable television, SVOD (Netflix), live sports, televised sports, music, etc.

 

[Rodan75]

Saw something that reminded me why the Fox acquisition should be blocked. Disney is the only movie studio to top $3 billion in domestic box office in a year (and this year looks likely to be the second time they do it). So, with this proposed acquisition, the biggest movie studio would get even bigger. This isn't OK in other industries, why would it be OK here?

I agree with most of what @CaptainAmerica said, but also wanted to add... Entertainment is cyclical. Just because Disney has controlled +30% of Domestic Box Office for the last couple of years, tastes change and that percentage will go down. Think about 10-15 years ago when it looked like WB could do no wrong and dominated Domestic BO, I think Fox had a hot hand about 7-10 years ago. It would be easy for Disney to argue against short term trends by showing long term trends.

Of all the issues to potentially block the merger, BO % is just not a big enough obstacle.

 

[doctornick]

You're missing my point. Disney doesn't care enough about Marvel theme park rights to make a trade. Insiders have said that both parties (Disney and Universal) are perfectly fine with the arrangement.

Yeah. I'd argue that if Disney were to try to get something from Comcast, it would be the Hulk and Sub-Mariner movie rights that Uni still has. i don't think Disney is all that concerned about the park rights.

Furthermore, even among the park rights, Disney'd top priority would probably be being able to use the Marvel name/brand in their domestic parks rather than re-acquiring the rights to characters.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Another thing to consider is the number of movies produced. There were 311 movies listed for 2017 on Box Office Mojo. Disney produced only 8 of them. Fox and Fox Searchlight produced 22. So if Disney and Fox had merged at the beginning of 2017, they would have made 30 or of the 311 films.

Now, a lot of those films are small indy or foreign films. So, even if you just focus on the top 100, Disney+Fox would have only 30% of the films produced for a wide market.

Disney and Fox look so much bigger when you look at their Box Office because they produced megahits. Their merger isn't stopping other studios from making good movies with the potential to be megahits.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Yeah. I'd argue that if Disney were to try to get something from Comcast, it would be the Hulk and Sub-Mariner movie rights that Uni still has. i don't think Disney is all that concerned about the park rights.

Furthermore, even among the park rights, Disney'd top priority would probably be being able to use the Marvel name/brand in their domestic parks rather than re-acquiring the rights to characters.

Considering how solo Hulk movies have fared compared to his inclusion in Avengers and Thor, I'm thinking Disney is in no hurry to be able to make another solo Hulk movie.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

People should reallllly look up how monopoly works in this country and why it was put in place (i.e. railroads, oil, banks). Look up Sherman Act, Clayton Act, and HHI. I would argue in this day and age Disney + Fox + WB would still not be considered a monopoly. Others have given enough reasons and examples, so I won't go into it. DIS + FOX is not remotely close to as dangerous as ISPs or cable providers merging.

Considering how solo Hulk movies have fared compared to his inclusion in Avengers and Thor, I'm thinking Disney is in no hurry to be able to make another solo Hulk movie.

Super hero movies BO gross should be broken down pre and post Avengers. There is a very noticeable bump to ALL SH post avengers. Ant Man making 520MM WW? No problem. A turd like SS making 700MM? Sure. Look where Cap is now. I feel a TIH2 or WW: Hulk would do gangbusters at the BO. 700MM+. However, Disney doesn't need to acquire that as they can use Hulk whatever. It's a nice to have. Same with Namor, presumably.

For my own selfish reasons though, I want a proper Marvel Land at WDW. The one at IOA is outdated. I want Marvel getting the Star Wars, Avatar, and Harry Potter treatment.

 

[Rodan75]

I hate to admit I'm fascinated by the workings of this merger and Comcast's meddling in it and would love to watch this all play out publically for the next 3-4 months.

However, with Viacom/CBS currently imploding, and with Sony Entertainment and MGM looking like they are both for sale, Comcast/Disney/Fox may find it far better to horse trade quickly and quietly and get back to appearing as stable investments.

Comcast has Cash, Hulu ownership and Marvel rights (primarily Cash, but Marvel rights and Hulu could be viewed as consolation prizes) to bring to the negotiating table, they will get SKY. I doubt they get Fox.

 

[seascape]

I hate to admit I'm fascinated by the workings of this merger and Comcast's meddling in it and would love to watch this all play out publically for the next 3-4 months.

However, with Viacom/CBS currently imploding, and with Sony Entertainment and MGM looking like they are both for sale, Comcast/Disney/Fox may find it far better to horse trade quickly and quietly and get back to appearing as stable investments.

Comcast has Cash, Hulu ownership and Marvel rights (primarily Cash, but Marvel rights and Hulu could be viewed as consolation prizes) to bring to the negotiating table, they will get SKY. I doubt they get Fox.

I think based on today's Supreme Court ruling on sports betting and Mark Cuban saying it doubles the value of every NBA team. ESPN will be a huge winner in this, making the .2745 share of Disney Stock for every share of Fox stock more than the cash Comcast is offering. That said I still like the deal from Disney's point of view. Iger is a genius putting out the ESPN app when he did. I can't wait to hear the next quarter conference call and learn more about how the app is doing. As for Sky, Disney should match Comcasts. I would not let that go. Let Comcast keep the Marvel rights in Florida. They are not worth as much as some here think and with the 2nd China park coming, Marvel named lands in Europe, China, Japan in 10 years, and then new parks in India and Brazil everyone will forget Universal has one park with Marvel that constantly costs Comcast money to upgrade.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Considering how solo Hulk movies have fared compared to his inclusion in Avengers and Thor, I'm thinking Disney is in no hurry to be able to make another solo Hulk movie.

While a fair point, the MCU was in a different state when the last Hulk movie was released. A Hulk movie today would likely include another character or two in the MCU as part of a crossover, and have no problem making money.

MCU films are simply the biggest box office juggernaut right now. These things ultimately come to an end, but the predicted "failures" at various points in recent years were Guardians of the Galaxy, Ant-Man and Black Panther.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A Hulk movie today would likely include another character or two in the MCU as part of a crossover,

And that's why I specified a *solo* Hulk movie. Disney/Marvel can make all the Hulk buddy movies they want without calling it a Hulk movie. They can't do a solo movie. And they'd wouldn't want to, just like you agree with, namely, use him with a crossover.

 

[happycamperuni]

The biggest anti-trust issue for Disney isn't the movie studios or box office market share; it's the Fox RSNs.

The single most valuable item in the $66 billion worth of Fox assets for sale are the $25 billion in value allocated to the Fox RSNs.

Combining those RSNs with ESPN equates to a lot of market power and control of contracts for US sports leagues/teams. ESPN already controls the largest share of national sports rights; after combining that the level of market share that the Fox RSNs have of local sports rights, you basically end up with ESPN controlling somewhere north of 50% of all US sports TV dollars.

Whether that's an issue for the DoJ is up in the air; it's hard to figure out what the DoJ's anti-trust priorities are given the AT&T-TimeWarner case isn't a traditional market share case (neither AT&T nor TW, nor both combined, have over 40% market share in any market).

Comcast already owns a bunch of RSNs, but its national market share is much lower; hard to tell whether they'd be forced to divest any. Probably depends on the AT&T-TW outcome.

 

[Quinnmac000]

Seems like multiple shareholders would rather the cash...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/com...uld-pit-murdoch-against-fox-shareholders.html

 

[ppete1975]

And that's why I specified a *solo* Hulk movie. Disney/Marvel can make all the Hulk buddy movies they want without calling it a Hulk movie. They can't do a solo movie. And they'd wouldn't want to, just like you agree with, namely, use him with a crossover.

that's because bill Bixby is dead... but lou ferigno could prob still be the hulk!!!
man I loved that tv show

 

[Stripes]

Seems like multiple shareholders would rather the cash...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/com...uld-pit-murdoch-against-fox-shareholders.html

Excluding Murdoch (who would never vote for a cash offer), Comcast would need 60% of the remaining shareholders to vote against Disney. Fox's board will never drop the recommendation for Disney because it's far too risky.

The long-term value of Disney stock presents a tremendous upside to Fox shareholders. At $119 a share, Disney's offer surpasses Comcast's. Only a handful of analysts don't think Disney stock will reach that before the end of the year.

The only thing cash offers is certainty...which isn't so certain considering the antitrust issues. Right now, Comcast should be worried about their NBCU merger considering DOJ is looking to target the merger after AT&T-Time Warner has wrapped up.

Edit: Not to mention, Vanguard, Blackrock, SSga, etc. are all the biggest shareholders in Disney, Fox, and Comcast. I can assure you that these firms (like the rest of Comcast shareholders), do not want Comcast tacking on $100 billion in debt, and therefore will almost certainly vote for the Disney deal.