News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tell me you don't seriously believe that. They just announced three new cruise ships that will probably cost a total of $5 billion (based on an estimated $1 billion each for the Dream and Fantasy, plus inflation, plus the fact that these will be bigger). That's the equivalent investment of a fifth and sixth gate. Just because they're not doing the things you want them to do doesn't mean they're not making long-term decisions.

But cruiseline is an underfarmed part of the Disney part of the Disney portfolio...and the street likes exploitation in the near and longterm...

Does iger really care about those ships? Likely not one bit. But he likes the perception building more creates.

As opposed to 5th and 6th Gates...which investors would hate and aren’t gonna happen.

 

[mikejs78]

But cruiseline is an underfarmed part of the Disney part of the Disney portfolio...and the street likes exploitation in the near and longterm...

Does iger really care about those ships? Likely not one bit. But he likes the perception building more creates.

As opposed to 5th and 6th Gates...which investors would hate and aren’t gonna happen.

Actually there have been several articles in recent months from the investor class about Disney's need for a 5th gate....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Then why are they currently investing in a multi-year, multi-billion dollar expansion of WDW? Your assertions about them not worrying or doing anything about the long term doesn't gel with the facts on the ground.

Well...you asked...

Because their greatest profit producing segment: network and cable tv...is in decline and the next biggest segment - parks - must make up for that profit decline.

So they invest - don’t discount the emerging Comcast threat - and massively increase prices to generate profits using minimum wage employees.

Make sense?

...and the increases aren’t “normal inflation” for their core clientele...Which is the standard incorrect excuse.

 

[Indy_UK]

For the amount of time people vacation in WDW I’m not really a fan of having a 5th gate. I think there’s plenty they can do with the existing 4 parks which they are doing. I do wish they were sticking to 2 cruise ships though and the money they are putting on the 3rd was going to Hollywood studios instead

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Actually there have been several articles in recent months from the investor class about Disney's need for a 5th gate....

Except those investors probably haven’t closely studied the Park cannibalization phenomenon and the societal reality that vacation time is shrinking...which is exactly what happened with animal kingdom.

Those investors - bless their soul - also probably believe they can get 75,000,000 “luxury” travelers there according to bob’s Plan.

It’s actually more likely they will get hit in their backyard in east Hampton tonight by a meteor fragment.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For the amount of time people vacation in WDW I’m not really a fan of having a 5th gate. I think there’s plenty they can do with the existing 4 parks which they are doing. I do wish they were sticking to 2 cruise ships though and the money they are putting on the 3rd was going to Hollywood studios instead

Your opinion reflects the data they’ve collected. People go for 7 days or less on the whole...it’s not like they’ll go for 10 when the marvel gate opens...they would just skip springs, Epcot, dak, etc.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Because their greatest profit producing segment: network and cable tv...is in decline and the next biggest segment - parks - must make up for that profit decline.

That doesn't make any sense. Are you really asserting that Disney wouldn't try to maximize Parks profits if ESPN were healthy and growing?

 

[mikejs78]

Well...you asked...

Because their greatest profit producing segment: network and cable tv...is in decline and the next biggest segment - parks - must make up for that profit decline.

So they invest - don’t discount the emerging Comcast threat - and massively increase prices to generate profits using minimum wage employees.

Make sense?

...and the increases aren’t “normal inflation” for their core clientele...Which is the standard incorrect excuse.

Except other than Star Wars, most of the investments won't be completed until 2020-2021... Which, before the Fox acquisition, was well after Iger's planned retirement. And most of these 'investments' were begun long before the Fox acquisition.

I think your view is a little too black and white. Is Iger and company oveyly concerned with the stock market? Yes, probably. Most CEOs are these days. Does Iger want to leave Disney in a good place when he retires? I think the answer here is yes. Now, his view on what leaving the company in a good place means May differ from yours and mine, (and most here) but the moves he's made in the last few years speak more to that than to just trying to maximize his retirement fund.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Your opinion reflects the data they’ve collected. People go for 7 days or less on the whole...it’s not like they’ll go for 10 when the marvel gate opens...they would just skip springs, Epcot, dak, etc.

I agree with this.

I wasn't advocating for a fifth gate, I was just using that to illustrate how expensive cruise ships are.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. — 'Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' — Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.”

Great quote...

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Except other than Star Wars, most of the investments won't be completed until 2020-2021... Which, before the Fox acquisition, was well after Iger's planned retirement. And most of these 'investments' were begun long before the Fox acquisition.

I think your view is a little too black and white. Is Iger and company oveyly concerned with the stock market? Yes, probably. Most CEOs are these days. Does Iger want to leave Disney in a good place when he retires? I think the answer here is yes. Now, his view on what leaving the company in a good place means May differ from yours and mine, (and most here) but the moves he's made in the last few years speak more to that than to just trying to maximize his retirement fund.

Most people don't really understand how CEO compensation is structured, either. Unless Disney's BoD is completely negligent (they're not), Iger's compensation packages include stock options that don't vest until long into the future. He's not just concerned about the stock price in 2018, he's concerned about setting up the stock price for 2028 and 2038 and beyond.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Except other than Star Wars, most of the investments won't be completed until 2020-2021... Which, before the Fox acquisition, was well after Iger's planned retirement. And most of these 'investments' were begun long before the Fox acquisition.

I think your view is a little too black and white. Is Iger and company oveyly concerned with the stock market? Yes, probably. Most CEOs are these days. Does Iger want to leave Disney in a good place when he retires? I think the answer here is yes. Now, his view on what leaving the company in a good place means May differ from yours and mine, (and most here) but the moves he's made in the last few years speak more to that than to just trying to maximize his retirement fund.

I think the important thing there was “planned”...there is never any guarantee on when iger will walk away and there never was...

The only thing we know is it will be at the exact moment where his parachute is judged to be at its fullest. If we get economic indicators pointing towards deep recession - queue the “spend time with my family” press release.

Iger controls this weak board as much if not more than Eisner did...and Roy is dead. It’s silly to look at contracts to be binding with iger. Lots of open ended escape clauses and extensions provisions to be sure.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Most people don't really understand how CEO compensation is structured, either. Unless Disney's BoD is completely negligent (they're not), Iger's compensation packages include stock options that don't vest until long into the future. He's not just concerned about the stock price in 2018, he's concerned about setting up the stock price for 2028 and 2038 and beyond.

...They....ARE....

Don’t be surprised if it hits the fan sooner than later.

Just like the other embarassing financial characteristic of our time - banking abuse caused by dangerous lack of control - nothing has changed at the Dwarf House.

It’s just times are “good”...so nobody notices or aknowledges it.

We shall see...my opinion is past is prologue.

And doesn’t the majority of his compensation still come due at retirement?

Answer is yes...when you’re talking future options - it’s gravy and Bud Fox’s question about waterskiing comes into play...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Still having trouble with the idea that an MCU would be profitable, i.e., the revenue would be more than all the costs, including a buy-out?



Hahaha. Come back when you're living in reality...

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You have an “entry level” kinda view of things that shows a lack of historical wisdom/perspective...then you post a chart.

At least Capt shows his financial chops/understanding and presents reasonable takes.

If I am understanding your nonsense above - your claiming marvel movies will never decline and posted a chart?

And there’s unlimited visitors to expensive themeparks with those IP, right?

So black panther 17 will make $5 bil worldwide in 2044, huh?

...do you want to finish your breakfast first and then think about it?

 

[MisterPenguin]

You have an “entry level” kinda view of things that shows a lack of historical wisdom/perspective...then you post a chart.

At least Capt shows his financial chops/understanding and presents reasonable takes.

If I am understanding your nonsense above - your claiming marvel movies will never decline and posted a chart?

And there’s unlimited visitors to expensive themeparks with those IP, right?

So black panther 17 will make $5 bil worldwide in 2044, huh?

...do you want to finish your breakfast first and then think about it?

Yeah, they'll lose their charm, just like the Disney Princess franchise did.

Nothing in the chart or what I said indicates that I believe that the gross will only go up for each movie, but nice straw man you knocked down. Hope it didn't leave you breathless jumping to that conclusion so fast.

You're being challenged with facts and you break apart with whiplash nonsense. Everyone sees it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That doesn't make any sense. Are you really asserting that Disney wouldn't try to maximize Parks profits if ESPN were healthy and growing?

No...they would.

I’m trying NOT to get the groan on this - because it’s been said and no one wants to hear it, much less accept it...

But they have had a problem with their walkaway profits because of the tv “thing”...and have compensated with Park profits...

Doesn’t anyone else ever read the financials? They’ve been writing about this for a decade and there has been a ton of coverage. It’s why the stock has dipped and then held lower for going on 3 years. It is what the investors say it is.

Disney - credit to iger - has done two pretty effective things:
1. Turn the screws on parks
2. Diving headlong into service/content providing (we would need all day just to cover this)

I’m not saying they wouldn’t capitalize parks - that is the new philosophy - but the reasons are there and has caused moves we might not have seen.

Go back and look at the Park discussions in 2015...wasn’t it consensus by they experienced that the “rushed” the Star Wars announcements. They also indicated they were rushing the movies at the time.

All roads lead back to Rome.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah, they'll lose their charm, just like the Disney Princess franchise did.

Nothing in the chart or what I said indicates that I believe that the gross will only go up for each movie, but nice straw man you knocked down. Hope it didn't leave you breathless jumping to that conclusion so fast.

You're being challenged with facts and you break apart with whiplash nonsense. Everyone sees it.

Disney princess didn’t exist from 1959-1989...

Mickey Mouse ebbed and flowed and was out of mainstream media (not product) content for periods of time.

Star Wars has SUCKED for periods over the last 20 years.

James Bond - the biggest global movie franchise ever...has fallen off the map for years at times.

Again...this is all very freshman year insight.


I’m not gonna debate that things come and go...it’s just common sense. I can’t teach cats to play blackjack.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think your view is a little too black and white. Is Iger and company oveyly concerned with the stock market? Yes, probably. Most CEOs are these days. Does Iger want to leave Disney in a good place when he retires? I think the answer here is yes. Now, his view on what leaving the company in a good place means May differ from yours and mine, (and most here) but the moves he's made in the last few years speak more to that than to just trying to maximize his retirement fund.

I sorta agree...of course iger wants to leave on top...for ego and wallet first and by far foremost....

But he can only control the “top of the mountain” in the short term. When you talk 10, 20 years...there are many more external events/scenarios beyond your average suits control.

That’s not iger...that’s all of them. If apple starts to get eclipsed, does Tim Cook stick around and trust they’ll rebound in 2035?

Hell no...cause it’s money and ego and they are tied to the hip.

So while a huge company like disney will plan on making money 50 years out - Wall Street insists it...that is beyond the immediate concerns of a 60 year old CEO who will shortly be permenantly getting a tan on Kauai soon enough.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

James Bond - the biggest global movie franchise ever...has fallen off the map for years at times.

In what metric is Bond the biggest global movie franchise ever?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

In what metric is Bond the biggest global movie franchise ever?

They're second now. $14 billion inflation-adjusted. $16 billion for the MCU.

Without adjusting for inflation, it's MCU, Star Wars, Potter, Bond, and Lord of the Rings.