News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[mikejs78]

I gotcha...

But here’s where I’m at: they had a Star Wars gross $213 domestically in 2018.

Even George couldn’t pull that off...and his “blue period” was downright awful.

At least Picard is back.

Let's set aside our disagreement about the current state of Star Wars. For SW to have long term legs as a franchise, it *needs* films that only gross in the ~$200M domestic range. Look at the MCU - it has Black Panther/Avengers and it has Ant Man and the Wasp. All three are considered successful, yet AMatW will make less than Solo.

The problem is that Ant Man was made to be a fairly low budget film and as a filler movie while Solo was not, and everyone expects all SW films to be huge record breaking blockbusters. That expectation has to go. SW needs a good balance of event films along with smaller films that can take more risks and tell different kinds of stories. Solo did about what I think a non-event SW film should be expected to do. Now Disney just needs to come to the realization that that's what the smaller films will do and budget accordingly. Had Solo cost ~$150M to make, Solo would have been a smashing success. They'll still have their $600M+ blockbusters - but it just won't be every single filler film.

 

[bartholomr4]

The stock hit is a shame considering the significant YoY improvements. It does look like Chapek's work is cut out for him in the Consumer Products division, it has been showing poorly since he moved to the Parks.

On the earnings call: 1) Doesn't sound like Iger is selling the 39% of Sky, 2) More resources for FX, Searchlight, Nat Geo and the 20th Century FOX Studios. 3) All will be expected to provide for the Streaming service, but will also be expected to grow their existing markets. 4) The new streaming service to launch "late 2019" 5) Expansion of international Sports events will substantially impact ESPN growth.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Unless I hit my head (and I do a lot)...hasn’t the market consensus been that Disney is actually overvalued and is at risk due to certain vulnerabilities? That’s been the most consistent narrative I’ve read since about 2015.

They need their Disney tv to launch assuage those concerns and be a hit. And they need not the bubble to break.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Let's set aside our disagreement about the current state of Star Wars. For SW to have long term legs as a franchise, it *needs* films that only gross in the ~$200M domestic range. Look at the MCU - it has Black Panther/Avengers and it has Ant Man and the Wasp. All three are considered successful, yet AMatW will make less than Solo.

The problem is that Ant Man was made to be a fairly low budget film and as a filler movie while Solo was not, and everyone expects all SW films to be huge record breaking blockbusters. That expectation has to go. SW needs a good balance of event films along with smaller films that can take more risks and tell different kinds of stories. Solo did about what I think a non-event SW film should be expected to do. Now Disney just needs to come to the realization that that's what the smaller films will do and budget accordingly. Had Solo cost ~$150M to make, Solo would have been a smashing success. They'll still have their $600M+ blockbusters - but it just won't be every single filler film.

Do you really want to go here? I’m trying to behave...

...but “it’s just like anything else” isn’t a good starting point...it misses the point of why it is what it is in the first place.

 

[mikejs78]

Walt Disney Co. shares fell in extended trading Tuesday after the company reported quarterly earnings that did not live up to expectations. Disney reported second-quarter net income of $2.92 billion, or $1.95 a share, on sales of $15.23 billion, up from $14.24 billion a year ago. After adjustments comparability with a year ago, the company reported earnings of $1.87 a share, up from $1.58 a year ago. Analysts on average expected Disney to report adjusted earnings of $1.95 a share on revenue of $15.35 billion, according to FactSet.

I think one of the biggest problems in the way public companies are forced to operate is 'analyst expectations'. Disney's revenue increased a decent amount YoY, yet their stock is down because it didn't meet what analysts thought it should hit. What kind of system can a company increase revenue by just under a *billion* dollars, and yet the stock tanks because some analysts thought that you didn't grow enough?

 

[mikejs78]

Do you really want to go here? I’m trying to behave...

...but “it’s just like anything else” isn’t a good starting point...it misses the point of why it is what it is in the first place.

I'm not comparing it to just anything else, I'm comparing it to the current most successful franchise around. The expectations have to be different when you're talking about a few films every generation and a new film every year.

 

[MisterPenguin]

yet AMatW will make less than Solo.

AM&W already made more than Solo worldwide and is expected to far outpace Solo on that front. And it's likely to tie Solo domestically.

 

[peter11435]

I think one of the biggest problems in the way public companies are forced to operate is 'analyst expectations'. Disney's revenue increased a decent amount YoY, yet their stock is down because it didn't meet what analysts thought it should hit. What kind of system can a company increase revenue by just under a *billion* dollars, and yet the stock tanks because some analysts thought that you didn't grow enough?

Analysts make a lot of money to manipulate and screw the market.

 

[mikejs78]

AM&W already made more than Solo worldwide and is expected to far outpace Solo on that front. And it's likely to tie Solo domestically.

Eh, I don't think it will do more than. 200-205 M domestically. Worldwide you have a point and that's a problematic trend for SW. My point is though that SW should be able to support smaller grossing films... Not everything can be TFA, or even Rogue One.

Now, to try to keep this marginally on topic: I'm glad to see that all SW films will finally be completely owned by Disney.... Well, save for the TV rights for the next 6 years...

 

[smile]

...but “it’s just like anything else” isn’t a good starting point...

it is now

 

[smile]

I think one of the biggest problems in the way public companies are forced to operate is 'analyst expectations'. Disney's revenue increased a decent amount YoY, yet their stock is down because it didn't meet what analysts thought it should hit. What kind of system can a company increase revenue by just under a *billion* dollars, and yet the stock tanks because some analysts thought that you didn't grow enough?

let's start a gofundme to buy twdc back from that endless swill swirl...
and persuade any would-be creative entrepreneurs out there that, for the love of walt, think twice about that shiny ipo!

 

[Rodan75]

Iger was super cagey about another bid for SKY on the meeting today, pretty firmly said that Disney will be driving that process should it move forward.

Feels like another 'negotiating in public' pronouncement than being really determined to sink more money into owning SKY.

 

[bartholomr4]

Iger was super cagey about another bid for SKY on the meeting today, pretty firmly said that Disney will be driving that process should it move forward.

Feels like another 'negotiating in public' pronouncement than being really determined to sink more money into owning SKY.

I totally agree. At the beginning of the call he talked about it as a major asset. Made me think he wouldn't be selling the 39% anytime soon!

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

AM&W already made more than Solo worldwide and is expected to far outpace Solo on that front. And it's likely to tie Solo domestically.

AM&TW is 2.5MM ahead of TW and it is outpacing it daily. TW finished at 206MM. Solo is gonna finish at 213MM. AM&TW is likely to pass Solo when it's all said and done.

 

[Rodan75]

AM&TW is 2.5MM ahead of TW and it is outpacing it daily. TW finished at 206MM. Solo is gonna finish at 213MM. AM&TW is likely to pass Solo when it's all said and done.

What is TW?

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

But is AM&TW going to surpass A:IW's box office?

 

[bartholomr4]

(Reuters) - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc has triggered a 46 day deadline to raise its bid for Sky in a battle with Comcast for control of the British pay-TV group.

Under British takeover rules, Rupert Murdoch’s Fox now has until Sept. 22 to trump Comcast's 14.75 pound per share offer for Sky, which values the broadcaster 25.9 billion pounds ($33 billion), after it formalised its own 14 pounds per share bid . Fox posted its formal offer document, without improving its price, on Tuesday, setting in motion a timetable to end the uncertainty over Sky's future by triggering a 46-day period during which both Fox and Comcast can lift their offers.

If the situation is not resolved by then, Britain's Takeover Panel can run an auction to bring the complex and long-winded transatlantic takeover battle for Sky to an end.

In the document, Fox said it was switching from a scheme of arrangement to an offer. That means it can choose to lower its acceptance threshold from 75 percent of Sky's minority shareholders to a simple majority of all the broadcaster's shares, including its own 39 percent stake.

"Flipping to an offer affords Fox more flexibility should they wish to come back with a higher number," analysts at Olivetree Financial said. "A scheme is cumbersome as you would constantly need to co-ordinate your actions and intentions with the Sky board."

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not comparing it to just anything else, I'm comparing it to the current most successful franchise around. The expectations have to be different when you're talking about a few films every generation and a new film every year.

You know...for often disagreeing so much...you usually agree with me

 

[bartholomr4]

Also (from the WSJ)

The U.K. Takeover Panel said Wednesday that appeals have been lodged over its ruling that Walt Disney would have to make an offer of 14 pounds ($18.1) a share for Sky if it buys 21st Century Fox entertainment assets.

The panel said a meeting of its appeal board will now be convened to consider the appeals lodged by several interested parties.
Last week, the regulatory body confirmed that Disney would have to make an offer for Sky if Disney's acquisition of the Fox assets, including Fox's current 39% stake in Sky, goes ahead before a potential buyer takes control of the U.K. pay-TV group.

 

[plutofan15]

Comcast is going to be cash strapped with Sky and the roll out of 5G.... I’m thinking he is going to go to invest in his bread and butter (Sky, 5G), milk the existing parks for cash, but hold on the investment necessary for a 3rd gate..... He may also need to retool a number of his existing rides, and experiences to remove Disney and FOX IP..... Capital will be a question, and until answered, he would be wise to hedge on the new park.....

What are you referring to when you say 5G?