News Disney’s Q1 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast

[JD80]

Hard disagree Disney+ is imo the best streaming service I don’t know what I would do without it

The guy is making up arguments to rail against.

 

[Jrb1979]

Seems pretty mixed bag…numbers are not “encouraging” overall…I’m shocked they reported them as they did? The landscape here is record spending/profits for damn near every two bit peddling company on the market.

Not so much with the Walt Iger Company…

The key alarm numbers is another posted parks drop…as in the pool continues to drain…which means they’ll tear a bigger hole in the liner

And the ad revenue drop was notable. What’s the deal with that?


The next dominoes will be the contract extension and talk of “cuts to address changing economic conditions”

Book it

The experiences division posted a 5% decline in domestic theme park operating income for the quarter, at $1.98 billion.

That can't be good in a quarter that's supposed to be their biggest one with the holiday season

 

[Dranth]

Remember a time where D+ was going to usher in the golden age of never ending mega profits. (Or maybe that's what Bob had in head when an overpriced consultant sold him on this turd of a streaming service)

I remember Disney saying it would take five years to even turn a profit. I don't remember anyone saying it would be a new golden age by year six. I know some think it will be great long term but anyone who thought it would manifest one year after turning profitable was smoking something.

Looking back at FY2024 (Oct 1 2023-Sept 30 2024):

Looking at the list you provided on this yes, The Marvels and Wish bombed. I don't think many would argue otherwise but some of your others are questionable.

- Planet of the Apes was out of the theaters before the start of Q1 2024 so wouldn't be part of the comparable here. Even then, it wasn't a bomb.
- Alien was not a bomb and certainly didn't have a 200+ million budget.
- Mufasa is currently in the green and still in theaters so is also not a bomb.

Remember the panic that set in a couple of quarters ago when ABC and related linear properties were thought to be on the chopping block?

No. Who was in a panic? I remember them saying they were looking at the option of selling off the broadcast segments of ABC but keeping all content creation or are you talking about something else? There was talk a good while ago about spinning off or selling ESPN but they have been pretty clear for a while now they weren't doing that.

Presidential election years drive significant viewership, specifically to news and late night. (Which make up the majority of programing on the flagship)

Fair, it does to news specifically and even more so on the actual night of the election, but that does tend to drop almost immediately after the election and most of the quarter being reported on was post election. Even then, this last election had lower viewership numbers than either 2016 or 2020.

It would be very interesting if they broke out DLR vs WDW. But we can easily surmise that WDW is tanking.

They typically call out if DL was up even when WDW is down so I am leaning towards DL was flat and WDW down, but I wouldn't put it in tanking territory yet.

Most alarmingly this is something that takes time to adjust and change course, but there's no course change being ordered. It's going to be an interesting 3 or 4 years to see what happens. I know @Sirwalterraleigh and myself have being saying the path they were on was completely unsustainable, and we're really going to get a chance to see how bad it will be.

Long term, the price increases significantly above inflation have always been unsustainable. No one can raise prices forever without it eventually turning on them and if Disney continues, then yes, they will slowly bleed visitors to the point they can't cover the drop in attendance with price increases anymore. The question was always more when will they hit that, not if.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The experiences division posted a 5% decline in domestic theme park operating income for the quarter, at $1.98 billion.

That can't be good in a quarter that's supposed to be their biggest one with the holiday season

Atta boy…

You picked the two doomsday warning sirens there:

“Decline”

And

“Q1”


Not good and there is zero way to spin that.
A reminder: bother per capita spending AND more importantly domestic travel was very high in 2024. There is no excuse to stuggle in the two compounds. None.

Now there was a huge storm…which typically causes a 3 day - and I’m not joking - disruption to revenue in Orlando. And the following week typically makes up for a huge chunk of it

So I reject that strawman like a blowtorch would

 

[Dranth]

The experiences division posted a 5% decline in domestic theme park operating income for the quarter, at $1.98 billion.

That can't be good in a quarter that's supposed to be their biggest one with the holiday season

It depends on why which is the reason these reports are important to investors.

In this case they saw a 5% decline and they called out two main reasons why it was down.

1. The hurricane. I know people scoff at this but between all four parks being closed and a canceled cruise itinerary this could account for a percentage point on its own.
2. Higher costs because this last quarter included launching the Treasure which did not sail until the end of December. I don't know how long it takes Disney but NCL reported it takes close to 60 days to launch a new ship, so Disney likely spent a good bit of money over most of the last quarter getting the ship ready to sail.

Get rid of those two and they are likely down slightly (one or two percent) if not even.

 

[Jrb1979]

It depends on why which is the reason these reports are important to investors.

In this case they saw a 5% decline and they called out two main reasons why it was down.

1. The hurricane. I know people scoff at this but between all four parks being closed and a canceled cruise itinerary this could account for a percentage point on its own.
2. Higher costs because this last quarter included launching the Treasure which did not sail until the end of December. I don't know how long it takes Disney but NCL reported it takes close to 60 days to launch a new ship, so Disney likely spent a good bit of money over most of the last quarter getting the ship ready to sail.

Get rid of those two and they are likely down slightly (one or two percent) if not even.

That's fair and makes it a little better. At the same time Q1 with all the holiday after hour events should be up IMO.

 

[JoeCamel]

Is there some reason people stopped reporting on DIS stocks?

View attachment 842588

Ohhh, 4 pm paints a different picture.....

 

[Dranth]

That's fair and makes it a little better. At the same time Q1 with all the holiday after hour events should be up IMO.

I get it but remember, they are comparing Q1 of this fiscal year to Q1 of last fiscal year so the comparison also has all the those same holidays and after hour events.

 

[Tha Realest]

I get it but remember, they are comparing Q1 of this fiscal year to Q1 of last fiscal year so the comparison also has all the those same holidays and after hour events.

And there were more party nights and they had higher ticket prices. Looks like there’s not much more blood in that stone.

 

[Andrew C]

Ohhh, 4 pm paints a different picture.....

Same price today as it was a decade ago. Not bad.

 

[Tha Realest]

Same price today as it was a decade ago. Not bad.

Hey, it’s one of the few Disney price points that hasn’t gone up over time.

 

[JoeCamel]

Same price today as it was a decade ago. Not bad.

Gonna get me sum

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It depends on why which is the reason these reports are important to investors.

In this case they saw a 5% decline and they called out two main reasons why it was down.

1. The hurricane. I know people scoff at this but between all four parks being closed and a canceled cruise itinerary this could account for a percentage point on its own.
2. Higher costs because this last quarter included launching the Treasure which did not sail until the end of December. I don't know how long it takes Disney but NCL reported it takes close to 60 days to launch a new ship, so Disney likely spent a good bit of money over most of the last quarter getting the ship ready to sail.

Get rid of those two and they are likely down slightly (one or two percent) if not even.

Right…long history of hurricanes sinking 90 days of a multi billion dollar operation…

…we should get the research department on that.

The cruiseline excuse is “more plausible”…but I don’t specifically recall that being the blame for drops in the past?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Same price today as it was a decade ago. Not bad.

Well worth the $600 mil paid to Bob in that time…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ohhh, 4 pm paints a different picture.....

In the grand scheme of things…it’s the same “picture” that’s been painted for 5+ years…
They need Bob Ross to put a little happy tree on it

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hey, it’s one of the few Disney price points that hasn’t gone up over time.

…winner

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No disagreement with the Parks needing work but a 2% decrease in attendance is cratering? Even with them seeing an increase in forward looking bookings?

It’s not 2%…it’s posting declines on top of the 5,000,000 in wdw attendance that never returned after the plague …and also they’ve admitted dips in several quarters since 2023 as well…the snowball left the top of the mountain awhile ago.

As for the price increase, we'll see what happens but I don't think any of us would be surprised to see something related to the parks get hit with it.

It’s been seen for a years now…we are seeing what the price increases do: offset losses…and then cause more.

 

[MisterPenguin]

"Parks and Experiences" should really be named "Parks and Cruises" because the other parts' contributions are trivial.

So, *Domestic Experiences" is really:

1. Disneyland
2. Walt Disney World
3. Disney Cruise Line

So, where we see that Domestic Experiences declined by 5%. That tells us *nothing* about WDW. Because we don't know which of the three segments that caused the decline. This means that proclaiming "Parks was down 5%" is just wrong. Because we don't know.

Also note that Domestic Experiences went up 2%. Was that from DL, WDW, or DCL, or any combination of the three? We don't know.

The only time we can pin a setback or an increase on a particular segment is if the guidance says something about it, like how the hurricanes affected WDW and DCL.

So, all we know is that among those three segments, revenue went up 2% and due to increased costs from any of the three segments, there was an overall net operating loss of 5%.

And that "loss" isn't a "loss" as in they "lost money." They simply made less *profit* compared to the same quarter from the previous year.

We should mourn that Parks and (Cruise) Experiences only had a net profit of $1.99B instead of $2.1B for one quarter.

 

[monothingie]

Hard disagree Disney+ is imo the best streaming service I don’t know what I would do without it

The guy is making up arguments to rail against.

So good that they are number 3 in subscribers and only have 1 of the top 10 streaming shows. (And that is Bluey which they license.)

If you want to park the kids in front of the iPad to watch Moana for the 47th time, then yes D+ is your streaming service.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

For those who can currently afford a step up into the Moderate or Deluxe range, their costs will continue to climb faster than inflation until a tipping point is discovered.

moderate seems the most fluid to me. When there is demand it’s almost deluxe prices and when there isn’t demand it’s almost value prices. So I think they have already found that point as well. Just anecdotal from when I’ve been looking at dates.

Iger is an improvement on Chapek from a fan, business and stockholder point of view.

He can also speak in public - I’ll give him that. He also has a better sweater collection but Josh is trying to catch up.

I do miss some of the longer hours for regular guests for sure

May I suggest a visit to Disneyland!

Looks like I ruffled a feather. Sorry.

a penguin feather at that! The worst kind to ruffle!

If you want to park the kids in front of the iPad to watch Moana for the 47th time, then yes D+ is your streaming service.

Oh c’mon… It’s not a bad service. There’s lots of content on there. I’m not a current subscriber but that’s silly.