News Disney’s Q1 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I've banned my kids from watching him. There are enough grifters out there.

For once…we agree

Like 99.9% of the Disney vloggers and podders that spin Jim hill issue nonsense with 0% common sense to it.

Plenty of good jobs to get instead of “fake doing” those.

 

[JD80]

This is just the modern business model for movie studios lol

Seriously.

For 2024, worldwide, TWDC put out:
1) Inside Out 2 - 1.7B
2) Deadpool and Wolverine - 1.3B
3) Moana 2 - 1B
7) Mufasa - 653M
15) Planet of the Apes - 397M
18) Alien 350M

 

[Agent H]

I've banned my kids from watching him. There are enough grifters out there.

I didn’t know he was a grifter I just find him really annoying how is he a grifter ?

 

[BrianLo]

@MisterPenguin Correct me if I'm wrong. The Year-Over-Year numbers are not adjusted for inflation, right?

So per-cap park spending was up 4%. Inflation from December 2023 to December 2024 was ~3%. So per-cap park spending, adjusted for inflation, was up 1%? Am I doing that right?

Yup!

I expect to see very little organic growth out of the domestic parks unless they ride some miracle spillover tides from Epic. At least until 2027/28 when this stuff comes online.

All domestic Experiences growth will be driven (and covered up) by DCL and they’ll be lucky to match inflation with pricing.

But your suggestion of new hard ticketed events could provide some inorganic juice.

 

[JD80]

I didn’t know he was a grifter I just find him really annoying how is he a grifter ?

He sells some terrible food products that are very low quality and frankly have less than zero nutritional content aimed directly at kids.

 

[Agent H]

Yup!

I expect to see very little organic growth out of the domestic parks unless they ride some miracle spillover tides from Epic. At least until 2027/28 when this stuff comes online.

All domestic Experiences growth will be driven (and covered up) by DCL and they’ll be lucky to match inflation with pricing.

But your suggestion of new hard ticketed events could provide some inorganic juice.

Special after hours events like Disneyland would be awesome I’d like to see Disney Channel nite and throwback nite

 

[Dranth]

D+ another meager quarterly profit while loosing subscribers, but it is completely unrelated to 10% price hike at the beginning of the quarter.

Here is what Iger said during the earnings call:

"As you know, we took prices up significantly, fairly recently and expected the churn would be significantly greater."

They specifically call out the subscriber losses due to price increase so where are you seeing them blaming it on something else?

Studios made money only because of 3 billion+ dollar movies. Ignore the other 4 $200M+ productions that bombed.

I am not following. What 4 movies had 200M+ budgets that bombed? Are we talking about this last quarter? The same quarter for 2024? Are we going back to 2023 with this one?

Linear TV is great again!

I don't remember them saying linear was great. Here is the quote from Iger about linear:

"We actually are at a point where the linear networks in our company are not a burden at all. They're actually an asset."

Parks are wonderful! LL is wonderful! Guest Spending is wonderful! BTW domestic growth, which is the tentpole for the segment, has cratered. Nothing is going to change for the next several quarters because there ain't nothing coming. Also they're probably going to raise prices some more.

No disagreement with the Parks needing work but a 2% decrease in attendance is cratering? Even with them seeing an increase in forward looking bookings?

As for the price increase, we'll see what happens but I don't think any of us would be surprised to see something related to the parks get hit with it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Seriously.

For 2024, worldwide, TWDC put out:
1) Inside Out 2 - 1.7B
2) Deadpool and Wolverine - 1.3B
3) Moana 2 - 1B
7) Mufasa - 653M
15) Planet of the Apes - 397M
18) Alien 350M

Now do the prior year…pretty easy to twist these either way

Yup!

I expect to see very little organic growth out of the domestic parks unless they ride some miracle spillover tides from Epic. At least until 2027/28 when this stuff comes online.

All domestic Experiences growth will be driven (and covered up) by DCL and they’ll be lucky to match inflation with pricing.

But your suggestion of new hard ticketed events could provide some inorganic juice.

See? We agree. Just not about movies

Don’t know how much further you can push “the hard tickets” though

My sense is that’s actually what’s driving the problems

 

[monothingie]

Seriously.

For 2024, worldwide, TWDC put out:
1) Inside Out 2 - 1.7B
2) Deadpool and Wolverine - 1.3B
3) Moana 2 - 1B
7) Mufasa - 653M
15) Planet of the Apes - 397M
18) Alien 350M

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Yup!

I expect to see very little organic growth out of the domestic parks unless they ride some miracle spillover tides from Epic. At least until 2027/28 when this stuff comes online.

All domestic Experiences growth will be driven (and covered up) by DCL and they’ll be lucky to match inflation with pricing.

But your suggestion of new hard ticketed events could provide some inorganic juice.

I feel like I say this every quarter, but I really wish the fans would not embrace the notion that attendance and revenue have to grow inexorably or the division is failing.

I really shake my head when I see people jumping up and down in glee because revenue at the parks apparently didn't grow sufficiently in the previous quarter based on the logic it didn't grow because they are trying too hard to make it grow. The parks would be a lot better if being massively profitable was sufficient for investors and there was more allowance for the idea that you don't need to be constantly finding new ways to wring revenues out of the business to grow profits organically or inorganically in the short term.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I feel like I say this every quarter, but I really wish the fans would not embrace the notion that attendance and revenue have to grow inexorably or the division is failing.

I really shake my head when I see people jumping up and down in glee because revenue at the parks apparently didn't grow sufficiently in the previous quarter based on the logic it didn't grow because they are trying too hard to make it grow. The parks would be a lot better if being massively profitable was sufficient for investors and there was more allowance for the idea that you don't need to be constantly finding new ways to wring revenues out of the business to grow profits organically or inorganically in the short term.

Ummmm…

It’s 55% of their revenues and the rest is not on the come…

I agree with your thoughts…or should I say I would if it’s 1994.

The stress is different now

 

[monothingie]

Here is what Iger said during the earnings call:

"As you know, we took prices up significantly, fairly recently and expected the churn would be significantly greater."

They specifically call out the subscriber losses due to price increase so where are you seeing them blaming it on something else?

Remember a time where D+ was going to usher in the golden age of never ending mega profits. (Or maybe that's what Bob had in head when an overpriced consultant sold him on this turd of a streaming service)

I am not following. What 4 movies had 200M+ budgets that bombed? Are we talking about this last quarter? The same quarter for 2024? Are we going back to 2023 with this one?

Looking back at FY2024 (Oct 1 2023-Sept 30 2024):
Bombs
The Marvels
Wish
Planet of the Apes
Alien

Winners
Deadpool
Inside Out 2

Starting FY2025 (October 1 2024 - Sept 30 2025):
Bomb
Muffassa

Winner
Moana 2

I don't remember them saying linear was great. Here is the quote from Iger about linear:

"We actually are at a point where the linear networks in our company are not a burden at all. They're actually an asset."

Remember the panic that set in a couple of quarters ago when ABC and related linear properties were thought to be on the chopping block? His words were hardly an ringing endorsement, much more so a surprise revelation.

Also, politics is a pretty low driver of viewership. Election years do generate additional ad revenue as groups try to flood certain markets, but this was a quarterly call in which the election was over for two thirds of the quarter. Maybe I am just not getting the connection you are making?

Presidential election years drive significant viewership, specifically to news and late night. (Which make up the majority of programing on the flagship)

No disagreement with the Parks needing work but a 2% decrease in attendance is cratering? Even with them seeing an increase in forward looking bookings?

It would be very interesting if they broke out DLR vs WDW. But we can easily surmise that WDW is tanking. Most alarmingly this is something that takes time to adjust and change course, but there's no course change being ordered. It's going to be an interesting 3 or 4 years to see what happens. I know @Sirwalterraleigh and myself have being saying the path they were on was completely unsustainable, and we're really going to get a chance to see how bad it will be.

As for the price increase, we'll see what happens but I don't think any of us would be surprised to see something related to the parks get hit with it.

The only plays in the playbook they have are: upcharges, price increases, and cuts. None of those things bring value to guests looking to spend ever increasing sums of money for an ever worsening product.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

God I would love to see the individual attendance even though it’d be a terrible business decision. My guess is that DAK and DHS are continuing to stagnate while DCA is growing. DCA never feels terribly quiet anymore.

 

[Agent H]

Remember a time where D+ was going to usher in the golden age of never ending mega profits. (Or maybe that's what Bob had in head when an overpriced consultant sold him on this turd of a streaming service)

Looking back at FY2024 (Oct 1 2023-Sept 30 2024):
Bombs
The Marvels
Wish
Planet of the Apes
Alien

Winners
Deadpool
Inside Out 2

Starting FY2025 (October 1 2024 - Sept 30 2025):
Bomb
Muffassa

Winner
Moana 2

Remember the panic that set in a couple of quarters ago when ABC and related linear properties were thought to be on the chopping block? His words were hardly an ringing endorsement, much more so a surprise revelation.

Presidential election years drive significant viewership, specifically to news and late night. (Which make up the majority of programing on the flagship)

It would be very interesting if they broke out DLR vs WDW. But we can easily surmise that WDW is tanking. Most alarmingly this is something that takes time to adjust and change course, but there's no course change being ordered. It's going to be an interesting 3 or 4 years to see what happens. I know @Sirwalterraleigh and myself have being saying the path they were on was completely unsustainable, and we're really going to get a chance to see how bad it will be.

The only plays in the playbook they have are: upcharges, price increases, and cuts. None of those things bring value to guests looking to spend ever increasing sums of money for an ever worsening product.

Hard disagree Disney+ is imo the best streaming service I don’t know what I would do without it

 

[JD80]

Mr Annual Pass over here saying the 7th highest grossing movie of the year is a bomb.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Am I the only one that finds Mr. Beast very annoying?

I think what he has accomplished is pretty incredible and he does give away a lot ofo run to needy people so of all the people in that space/like him I think he is one of the better ones out there

 

[JD80]

God I would love to see the individual attendance even though it’d be a terrible business decision. My guess is that DAK and DHS are continuing to stagnate while DCA is growing. DCA never feels terribly quiet anymore.

Via TEA through 2023

Numbers - the $$ is single day MK ticket price avg for the year - roughly- , adjusted for 2023 dollars.

 

[JD80]

Hard disagree Disney+ is imo the best streaming service I don’t know what I would do without it

The guy is making up arguments to rail against.

 

[Jrb1979]

Seems pretty mixed bag…numbers are not “encouraging” overall…I’m shocked they reported them as they did? The landscape here is record spending/profits for damn near every two bit peddling company on the market.

Not so much with the Walt Iger Company…

The key alarm numbers is another posted parks drop…as in the pool continues to drain…which means they’ll tear a bigger hole in the liner

And the ad revenue drop was notable. What’s the deal with that?


The next dominoes will be the contract extension and talk of “cuts to address changing economic conditions”

Book it

The experiences division posted a 5% decline in domestic theme park operating income for the quarter, at $1.98 billion.

That can't be good in a quarter that's supposed to be their biggest one with the holiday season

 

[Dranth]

Remember a time where D+ was going to usher in the golden age of never ending mega profits. (Or maybe that's what Bob had in head when an overpriced consultant sold him on this turd of a streaming service)

I remember Disney saying it would take five years to even turn a profit. I don't remember anyone saying it would be a new golden age by year six. I know some think it will be great long term but anyone who thought it would manifest one year after turning profitable was smoking something.

Looking back at FY2024 (Oct 1 2023-Sept 30 2024):

Looking at the list you provided on this yes, The Marvels and Wish bombed. I don't think many would argue otherwise but some of your others are questionable.

- Planet of the Apes was out of the theaters before the start of Q1 2024 so wouldn't be part of the comparable here. Even then, it wasn't a bomb.
- Alien was not a bomb and certainly didn't have a 200+ million budget.
- Mufasa is currently in the green and still in theaters so is also not a bomb.

Remember the panic that set in a couple of quarters ago when ABC and related linear properties were thought to be on the chopping block?

No. Who was in a panic? I remember them saying they were looking at the option of selling off the broadcast segments of ABC but keeping all content creation or are you talking about something else? There was talk a good while ago about spinning off or selling ESPN but they have been pretty clear for a while now they weren't doing that.

Presidential election years drive significant viewership, specifically to news and late night. (Which make up the majority of programing on the flagship)

Fair, it does to news specifically and even more so on the actual night of the election, but that does tend to drop almost immediately after the election and most of the quarter being reported on was post election. Even then, this last election had lower viewership numbers than either 2016 or 2020.

It would be very interesting if they broke out DLR vs WDW. But we can easily surmise that WDW is tanking.

They typically call out if DL was up even when WDW is down so I am leaning towards DL was flat and WDW down, but I wouldn't put it in tanking territory yet.

Most alarmingly this is something that takes time to adjust and change course, but there's no course change being ordered. It's going to be an interesting 3 or 4 years to see what happens. I know @Sirwalterraleigh and myself have being saying the path they were on was completely unsustainable, and we're really going to get a chance to see how bad it will be.

Long term, the price increases significantly above inflation have always been unsustainable. No one can raise prices forever without it eventually turning on them and if Disney continues, then yes, they will slowly bleed visitors to the point they can't cover the drop in attendance with price increases anymore. The question was always more when will they hit that, not if.