Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Nobody suggested giving anything away…
But selling a used dodge for a new Mercedes price looks silly…even if people fall for it
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News Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2023 Earnings Results Webcast
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
But selling a used dodge for a new Mercedes price looks silly…even if people fall for it
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Kinda - down 2.2+% today in a very up market while comcast is up 2.5% so one day rally. Bob just doesn't have the cachet he used to....
That’s why I said I will be short again on Friday.
This is all very predictable and I believe has a strong phycological component to it.
I have made 5.3% on Disney in just the last few days.
Thanks Bob, at least your good for something !!
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…yeah…but unless you dump it…you’re gonna lose it next week
Disney stock, year-to-date, is down about five percent to $84.50. But analysts largely think there’s room for growth there, with many having stock target prices north of $115 in their post-earnings reports.
Wall Street Likes Bob Iger’s Disney Growth Vision, So Far
In post-earnings reports, multiple analysts set price targets above $115 as the CEO outlined a "building" phase that includes being more cost-effective, getting streaming to profitability and leaning on growing its parks division.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
The constant cuts are coming back to haunt Disney. With reviews like this, people won’t book even with $1000 dining cards! Do better, Bob!
Appalling.
Appalling.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Disney stock has had a consistent downward trajectory for the last 2 years…no matter which Bob is in charge…
And none of the problems dragging it down have been solved…they’re intensifying
…for you geniuses at home
And none of the problems dragging it down have been solved…they’re intensifying
…for you geniuses at home
Willmark
Well-Known Member
If only there was a reason causing all of this, I wonder what it could be?Disney stock has had a consistent downward trajectory for the last 2 years…no matter which Bob is in charge…
And none of the problems dragging it down have been solved…they’re intensifying
…for you geniuses at home
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
If only there was a reason causing all of this, I wonder what it could be?
flynnibus
Premium Member
I doubt there is much direct correlation there. Disney is getting to sell the same points again… at far higher prices. their profit on yhe contract flip is basically free money.
I’m sure a far bigger factor is sales goals on getting the new property sold on the forecasted schedule. Sellers are going to be goaled and comp’d on that probably stronger than resale.
Sales are incentivized to meet those set goals… while resale is likely just linked to revenue goals.
Simply put… more sales incentives because leaders want the new properties go meet goals.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Now that’s a beautiful Bob.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Been there done that. Working an overnight graveyard shift takes its toll on your body and mind. Forcing yourself to keep awake while your body wants to shut down and rest.
pdude81
Well-Known Member
The dvc sales ecosystem is designed to guarantee they make more money each year on "currently available" resorts even as they are reduced in years. The high prices direct for old resorts are to allow them to artificially inflate resale prices via ROFR and force an ugly comparison to the "value" of the "new" ones, where they are running out of desirable locations to build. It's the "make me move" price. But if you're rich and don't care, then they will sell anything.
This will work for exactly as long as people keep buying. And they have no reason yet to think the party will end
This will work for exactly as long as people keep buying. And they have no reason yet to think the party will end
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Two things will become more problematic in the next 10+ years:
1. The end of the “old places”…if dvc had it to do over again…I bet they’d cut 15 years off the contracts. Because they no longer seem to understand the point of selling them in the first place?
2. Generational roll. When boomer ends and X stops buying…that’s a gigantic void that cannot be filled. Remember each generation now makes LESS…and the diehard Disney fandom will diminish because they lost their 20th century mojo…
…yes…I’m saying that in fact there are NOT 10 people to take everyone’s place that stops going
As we see right now
Jambo Dad
Well-Known Member
And some of our DVC’s will have expired.Same.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
The generational trend you mention started a while ago.
Disney started replacing U.S. baby boomers with international travelers, which now make up roughly 20% of WDW attendance.
It’s these international vacationers who have helped buoy WDW numbers for the last two decades.
WDW’s future growth is in a tough spot. For two decades, Disney has been increasing prices faster that domestic Guests can afford. Two decades of compounded price increases really puts a damper on domestic attendance growth. Now, the international market is tapped out too.
With the Baby Boomer generation (and their rose colored glasses) aging out and few new international markets to chase, exactly how does Disney keep WDW growth going?
Short-term, Disney has just been raising prices and cutting quality corners to keep the numbers looking good. As long as the pool of potential customers kept growing, capturing a smaller percentage of a growing base worked.
But with WDW’s base of potential customers now maxed out, we’re starting to see higher prices and declining quality impact WDW theme park attendance.
Historically, theme parks battle this with new attractions. But after taking into account how much of capex will go into maintenance plus inflation, Disney’s announced $17B investment in WDW over the next 10 years is not going to go far.
We’ll see Dinoland (which is a mess) replaced plus and attraction or two here or there, but these modest improvements are not going to be big draws.
Starting in 2025, WDW will have to compete with a three theme park Universal.
WDW is in a pickle.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The next big change…and one needed even with a high level of fallout - is the management rollover
It’s LONG past time.
That 20% number is still a little high.
Or more specifically - is likely capped out.
It’s not gonna increase…there won’t be more internationals jetting to old parks in Orlando as the US gets “more poor”…
That’s not how the global economy is rigged.
It’s also why iger’s deliberate decision to limit construction in Orlando for 20 years will fail them…the results are starting to trickle in.
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pdude81
Well-Known Member
I don't think their base of potential customers is tapped out at all. But any significant increase is going to cost them.
Could cost them in revenue by dropping prices or giving "free" dining away. Could cost them significant money in new attractions and improved maintenance. I'd float increased staffing but I'm not sure they could boost cast numbers significantly if they wanted to.
There are levers to pull, but I don't think they want to pull them until D+ is profitable and they can take a little blowback in operating costs. And obviously Bob the former would prefer never to pull them. He just won't have a choice soon.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Something they could do relatively quickly is revert to 3 pre-booked LLs per day and include them with all on-site resort stays (and another 3 for club level if they want). I’m surprised they haven’t started doing this during soft periods as it is. Start with all of July and August.