The_Jobu
Well-Known Member
Heh. Somehow I forgot about that. It would explain a lot.
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News Dismal Q3 Earnings
- Thread starter monothingie
- Start date
Heh. Somehow I forgot about that. It would explain a lot.
You're not trying that hard when you throw in your two cents and then tell everyone else to stop.
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
I'm of the opinion of "In Kevin we Trust". So far there have been numerous decisions that I questioned beforehand and he's proven my skepticism unfounded - every. single. time.
Dude, just walk away. I actually own those comic, not just looking them up on wikipedia for social justice queues. Thor is Thor. Marvel's hamfisted attempt to legitimize Jane Foster caused an epidemic of sprained eye muscles as the comic book community rolled their collective eyes so hard. It was stupid then and it's stupid now. Hence it's spectacular failure.
Let's talk about the earnings and leave the off topic dumpsterfires for another thread.
People forget that Iron Man, Thor, Cap, etc., were Marvel's B-List compared to Spider Man and X-Men before Kevin came in and created the MCU.
The_Jobu
Well-Known Member
Lol. You wound me sir. What are your thoughts on the missed projections?
The_Jobu
Well-Known Member
No doubt. I think Kevin could make my trip to the organic grocery store at least a $500,000,000 winner.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
He's really done a stellar job. (Now...there's got to be someone just like him, but a Star Wars geek out there somewhere...)
1. DLR screwed up by going too far to keep the crowds from being unmanageable. Rather than strangling the flow of guests, they should have been underselling the land by calling it a preview and tamping expectations until RotR was ready. They not only scared off (or outpriced) people from SWL, they scared off people going to DL altogether, which is very hard to do, but, they did it! Yay them!
2. Missed projections are mostly for speculators doing their day (or minute or millisecond) trading. The saw tooth swings on the stock's price is just a small margin of speculators trying to outgame one another. Most investors are keeping Dis stocks climbing year after year. Stock analysts are talking in an echo chamber of those speculators. Analysts set a high bar of ever increasing profits and panic when it doesn't happen and that sets off a selling frenzy trying to beat each other trying to be the ones selling off the fastest.... so they can take that money and immediately put it in stock where there's good news trying to beat each other in buying into the frenzy at a lower price... and as soon as they think it peaks... sell off. And then everything goes back to where it was in a few months.
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
Not to mention that the stock has rebounded a bit after yesterday. Up nearly 2% today. So I guess investors aren't really worried...
jt04
Well-Known Member
Also the recent decline was mostly due to the overall market and not the quarterly results from Disney.
No, DLR took a swing at crowd management and failed and made DLR a ghost town for a month. In the end, the parks et al. division had growth, but not as much as expected from a new SWL thanks to a series of missteps. All the other parks had growth according to Iger, except DLR.
DDLand
Well-Known Member
@WDW Pro reminds me a great deal of @WDW1974. I started my following of Disney over at DisBoards. It’s there I heard about “Spirit.” I was expecting an account that would occasionally drop some hints. Instead, I found a provocative and opinionated person with impressive connections. I don’t agree with a lot of what Spirit said, but I also realized two things:
1) His connections were real
2) His arguments were thought provoking
@WDW1974 is an impressive person, no matter what you thought of his views or persona. @WDW Pro does have an agenda and sometimes suffers from a lack of precision (probably due to other obligations), but I really struggle to explain away some of their anecdotes. They’re just too specific and too accurate. Skepticism is warranted, but I also would give them the benefit of the doubt.
While their info may be right, that doesn’t mean you have to agree with their views or interpretation. I expect @WDW Pro to remain provocative and opinionated. I’m just not ready to throw the baby out with the bath water...
Bairstow
Well-Known Member
That's the big one.
The fact that the big headliner attraction still isn't ready yet was unfortunate for Disney's marketing schedule but this is the single biggest problem for that land. It's not the new movies or their politics, it's not the lack of Mark Hamill look-a-likes posing for guests for photos, it's the fact that Disney has been trying to sell everyone a Carsland without its Radiator Springs Racers or a Wizard World without its Forbidden Journey. By formally launching the lands as-is Disney thought they would get four bites out of two apples but they may have poisoned the whole bushel.
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jt04
Well-Known Member
Not disagreeing just pointing out the decline of the last couple days was not entirely related to Disney. Other market factors had an effect.
PS - The Lion King returned to #1 yesterday. Will definitely surpass BatB.
jt04
Well-Known Member
Manipulating facts and well crafted spin makes everything else suspect.
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
A week ago, when I informed everyone that Disney's stock was soon to suffer for the first time due to lower Domestic Park revenues and poor performance of Star Wars Galaxy's Edge... the above was your response. You were one of a few to openly dismiss what I was saying and ridicule the exact thing that was revealed one week later.
spacemountaincarlo
Well-Known Member
Yeah this is me.
TeddyinMO
Well-Known Member
Here’s the interesting thing about Marvel and Star Wars…
If you go back to the release of Iron Man in 2008 (DIS bought Marvel in 2009, but several MCU films were released by Paramount following that, so it’s easiest to start there), Star Wars has done well comparatively at the box office. There have now been 26 films released between Star Wars and the MCU. Star Wars finishes 1, 6, 7 and 22 on the domestic box office list if included with the MCU. Yet, Kathleen Kennedy gets blasted, while Kevin Feige gets universally praised (deservedly so, so please don’t think I’m knocking him).
Now, if you look at the global numbers, the picture does change a bit – although not as much as I expected. TFA drops from 1 to 2; TLJ drops from 6 to 7; Rogue 1 drops from 7 to 12 and Solo drops from 22 to 25. Considering Solo and R1 have a direct ties to the original trilogy, which has a much lower international presence, it is logical that they’d not do as well globally. In other words, if you look at the success of Kennedy compared to Feige, she is doing just fine. With only four movies, she has three of the top 7 domestically and 3 of the top 12 internationally in this makeshift Disney-owned universe.
Now, does this mean that Solo didn’t under-perform? Of course not. But it did about as well domestically as Dr. Strange and Ant Man and the Wasp, which was released the same summer. It just didn’t translate internationally like those did.
So, I am not so sure that I’d write off Star Wars yet. I just think Disney needs to look at how to get the non-Skywalker films to translate better internationally. One solution for that would be to look beyond the OT and explore some of the EU, which can certainly be mined for gold. Find stories that will translate in China and other countries that are related enough to the Universe that they work both domestically and internationally. The MCU has excelled in this area in recent years. I think Star Wars still can too.
I also think that if Solo had been released at Christmas instead of May, it easily jumps by $100 million domestically and is up by Thor: Ragnorak domestically (although it doesn’t change anything internationally). It got eaten alive by the TLJ, Black Panther and Infinity War aftermath. (Yes, this is just my opinion.)
And, no matter what you think of any of these movies/franchises, I think it’s pretty obvious Bob Iger is quite happy he made these purchases!
DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE (BOX OFFICE MOJO)
WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE (BOX OFFICE MOJO)
If you go back to the release of Iron Man in 2008 (DIS bought Marvel in 2009, but several MCU films were released by Paramount following that, so it’s easiest to start there), Star Wars has done well comparatively at the box office. There have now been 26 films released between Star Wars and the MCU. Star Wars finishes 1, 6, 7 and 22 on the domestic box office list if included with the MCU. Yet, Kathleen Kennedy gets blasted, while Kevin Feige gets universally praised (deservedly so, so please don’t think I’m knocking him).
Now, if you look at the global numbers, the picture does change a bit – although not as much as I expected. TFA drops from 1 to 2; TLJ drops from 6 to 7; Rogue 1 drops from 7 to 12 and Solo drops from 22 to 25. Considering Solo and R1 have a direct ties to the original trilogy, which has a much lower international presence, it is logical that they’d not do as well globally. In other words, if you look at the success of Kennedy compared to Feige, she is doing just fine. With only four movies, she has three of the top 7 domestically and 3 of the top 12 internationally in this makeshift Disney-owned universe.
Now, does this mean that Solo didn’t under-perform? Of course not. But it did about as well domestically as Dr. Strange and Ant Man and the Wasp, which was released the same summer. It just didn’t translate internationally like those did.
So, I am not so sure that I’d write off Star Wars yet. I just think Disney needs to look at how to get the non-Skywalker films to translate better internationally. One solution for that would be to look beyond the OT and explore some of the EU, which can certainly be mined for gold. Find stories that will translate in China and other countries that are related enough to the Universe that they work both domestically and internationally. The MCU has excelled in this area in recent years. I think Star Wars still can too.
I also think that if Solo had been released at Christmas instead of May, it easily jumps by $100 million domestically and is up by Thor: Ragnorak domestically (although it doesn’t change anything internationally). It got eaten alive by the TLJ, Black Panther and Infinity War aftermath. (Yes, this is just my opinion.)
And, no matter what you think of any of these movies/franchises, I think it’s pretty obvious Bob Iger is quite happy he made these purchases!
DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE (BOX OFFICE MOJO)
1 | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | BV | $936,662,225 | 4,134 | |
2 | Avengers: Endgame | BV | $857,615,351 | 4,662 | |
3 | Black Panther | BV | $700,059,566 | 4,084 | |
4 | Avengers: Infinity War | BV | $678,815,482 | 4,474 | |
5 | Marvel's The Avengers | BV | $623,357,910 | 4,349 | |
6 | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | BV | $620,181,382 | 4,232 | |
7 | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | BV | $532,177,324 | 4,157 | |
8 | Avengers: Age of Ultron | BV | $459,005,868 | 4,276 | |
9 | Captain Marvel | BV | $426,829,839 | 3/8/2019 | 4,310 |
10 | Iron Man 3 | BV | $409,013,994 | 4,253 | |
11 | Captain America: Civil War | BV | $408,084,349 | 5/6/2016 | 4,226 |
12 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 | BV | $389,813,101 | 4,347 | |
13 | Spider-Man: Far from Home | Sony | $363,442,286 | 7/2/2019 | 4,634 |
14 | Spider-Man: Homecoming | Sony | $334,201,140 | 4,348 | |
15 | Guardians of the Galaxy | BV | $333,176,600 | 4,088 | |
16 | Iron Man | Par. | $318,412,101 | 4,154 | |
17 | Thor: Ragnarok | BV | $315,058,289 | 11/3/2017 | 4,080 |
18 | Iron Man 2 | Par. | $312,433,331 | 4,390 | |
19 | Captain America: The Winter Soldier | BV | $259,766,572 | 4/4/2014 | 3,938 |
20 | Doctor Strange | BV | $232,641,920 | 11/4/2016 | 3,882 |
21 | Ant Man and the Wasp | BV | $216,648,740 | 4,206 | |
22 | Solo: A Star Wars Story | BV | $213,767,512 | 5/25/2018 | 4,381 |
23 | Thor: The Dark World | BV | $206,362,140 | 3,841 | |
24 | Thor | Par. | $181,030,624 | 5/6/2011 | 3,963 |
25 | Ant-Man | BV | $180,202,163 | 3,868 | |
26 | Captain America: The First Avenger | Par. | $176,654,505 | 3,715 |
WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE (BOX OFFICE MOJO)
1 | Avengers: Endgame | BV | 2,794,800,000 | 4,662 | |
2 | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | BV | $2,068,200,000 | 4,134 | |
3 | Avengers: Infinity War | BV | 2,048,400,000 | 4,474 | |
4 | Marvel's The Avengers | BV | 1,518,800,000 | 4,349 | |
5 | Avengers: Age of Ultron | BV | 1,405,400,000 | 4,276 | |
6 | Black Panther | BV | 1,346,900,000 | 4,020 | |
7 | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | BV | 1,332,500,000 | 4,232 | |
8 | Iron Man 3 | BV | 1,214,800,000 | 4,253 | |
9 | Captain America: Civil War | BV | 1,153,300,000 | 5/6/2016 | 4,226 |
10 | Captain Marvel | BV | 1,128,300,000 | 3/8/2019 | 4,310 |
11 | Spider-Man: Far from Home | Sony | 1,078,400,000 | 7/2/2019 | 4,634 |
12 | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | BV | 1,056,100,000 | 4,157 | |
13 | Spider-Man: Homecoming | Sony | 880,200,000 | 4,348 | |
14 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 | BV | 863,800,000 | 4,347 | |
15 | Thor: Ragnarok | BV | 854,000,000 | 11/3/2017 | 4,080 |
16 | Guardians of the Galaxy | BV | 773,300,000 | 4,080 | |
17 | Captain America: The Winter Soldier | BV | 714,300,000 | 4/4/2014 | 3,938 |
18 | Doctor Strange | BV | 677,700,000 | 11/4/2016 | 3,882 |
19 | Thor: The Dark World | BV | 644,600,000 | 3,841 | |
20 | Iron Man 2 | Par. | 623,900,000 | 4,380 | |
21 | Ant Man and the Wasp | BV | 622,700,000 | 4,206 | |
22 | Iron Man | Par. | 585,200,000 | 4,105 | |
23 | Ant-Man | BV | 519,300,000 | 3,856 | |
24 | Thor | Par. | 449,300,000 | 5/6/2011 | 3,955 |
25 | Solo: A Star Wars Story | BV | 392,900,000 | 5/25/2018 | 4,381 |
26 | Captain America: The First Avenger | Par. | 370,600,000 | 3,715 |
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Don't forget that Kathleen Kennedy, along with her hires for The Lucasfilm Story Group, threw out the majority of the EU as not being canon. So basically they're saying those thousands of characters/stories don't exist. She/they shot Lucasfilm in the foot by doing so.