DHS Makeover - What we know so far.....

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
What's going on here seems to be a prime example of one of those horrible communication theories that's rather obvious - the echo chamber.

One person puts a piece of information out there and then everybody else repeats the same piece of information without vetting it or going back and doing any research. And then it bounces around and then people start citing the people who are repeating it as support for their assertion.

And that seems to be what's going on here.

We'll see how this plays out.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
What's going on here seems to be a prime example of one of those horrible communication theories that's rather obvious - the echo chamber.

One person puts a piece of information out there and then everybody else repeats the same piece of information without vetting it or going back and doing any research. And then it bounces around and then people start citing the people who are repeating it as support for their assertion.

And that seems to be what's going on here.

We'll see how this plays out.

Yep, we have seen this a number of times with parks rumors. A rumor will pop up on a bunch of sites and people will say this is proof that the rumor has some validity, but if you read the articles carefully you will find that they all trace back to one site.
 

DDLand

Well-Known Member
Yep, we have seen this a number of times with parks rumors. A rumor will pop up on a bunch of sites and people will say this is proof that the rumor has some validity, but if you read the articles carefully you will find that they all trace back to one site.
This. Though they sell it as their own reporting, which is dishonest and stupid. They just need to be forthcoming with where they got the info, if it's from sites and posters I trust, I'll believe it.

When people try to sell month old Jim Hill info as their own reporting with alarmist headlines, that's wrong. Heck, it seems like a huge amount of stuff breaks here first. Then "coincidently" it appears on other sites.

All they need to do is show the original info. Is that too much to ask?
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This. Though they sell it as their own reporting, which is dishonest and stupid. They just need to be forthcoming with where they got the info, if it's from sites and posters I trust, I'll believe it.

When people try to sell month old Jim Hill info as their own reporting with alarmist headlines, that's wrong. Heck, it seems like a huge amount of stuff breaks here first. Then "coincidently" it appears on other sites.

All they need to do is show the original info. Is that too much to ask?

Dont get me wrong, I like Jim's historical stories - Things that never happened and never will be.

Current affairs? Not so much.
 

bferrara16

Active Member
Because some E-ticket attractions things should be exclusive to certain parks. To quote The Incredibles: "When EVERYONE'S super, no one will be." Once you start carbon-copying atttractions, there's no reason to visit anywhere else.
Same reason that there shouldn't be a Matterhorn at the Magic Kingdom, and there shouldn't be a Rockin' Roller Coaster on Buena Vista Street, and why I'm rather glad Hong Kong got Mystic Manor instead of the Haunted Mansion.
To quote The Incredibles: "Why don't we have a stinkin' E-ticket yet????!?!?!"
That was in the film, right?
 

CinematicFusion

Well-Known Member
Well whatever they build or how much they spend isn't important.
It's important they start soon....and they build quality.

If there is a huge shift in the coming years with customers "cutting the cord" and moving to non traditional sources for entertainment, Disney's stock will drop fast as it makes the adjustment. ESPN is huge revenue for Disney, more so then the parks and movie business. It has been seen as the stability of Disney. I think iger was smart enough to see the future problems and started buying franchises like Star Wars, Indy, marvel and of course Howard the Duck :)
While I believe Disney will shift nicely into the new media and still be a very strong company, In the short term, while the stock drops, it could hurt in terms of expanding the American parks.
My take is Disney's stock is going to have another run into the new year. However, analyst are going to keep a strong eye on ESPN. football season is approaching and if you see a solid subscriber drop during football season, I think Disney's stock will start a new downward trend.

They need to start building while the stock is in good shape. Any delays and we might not see anything at all.
 

Kamikaze

Well-Known Member
If there is a huge shift in the coming years with customers "cutting the cord" and moving to non traditional sources for entertainment, Disney's stock will drop fast as it makes the adjustment. ESPN is huge revenue for Disney, more so then the parks and movie business. It has been seen as the stability of Disney. I think iger was smart enough to see the future problems and started buying franchises like Star Wars, Indy, marvel and of course Howard the Duck :)
While I believe Disney will shift nicely into the new media and still be a very strong company, In the short term, while the stock drops, it could hurt in terms of expanding the American parks.
My take is Disney's stock is going to have another run into the new year. However, analyst are going to keep a strong eye on ESPN. football season is approaching and if you see a solid subscriber drop during football season, I think Disney's stock will start a new downward trend.

They need to start building while the stock is in good shape. Any delays and we might not see anything at all.

ESPN only has one NFL game per week. So 'football season' has nothing to do with anything. The ESPN/NFL TV contract is also not up until after the 2017 season, I believe. And the NFL always goes up in value. So I don't see where you could possibly think that 'football season' will affect stock price.

Also - if you just take a look at the annual report - Disney doesn't break out ESPN to its own section. They lump all of their 'cable networks' together. Q3 those cable networks had an income of $2.1bn. (Which, by the way, was up $200m over the prior year which had the added benefit of the World Cup). Parks and Resorts had an income in that period of $4.1bn.

My point: Don't just make stuff up. If anything, broadcast networks that Disney owns (the major cities ABC affiliates, basically) are the most worrisome out of anything. But - those are a very small part of Disney's overall holdings that it won't ever hurt the bottom line too badly.
 

CinematicFusion

Well-Known Member
ESPN only has one NFL game per week. So 'football season' has nothing to do with anything. The ESPN/NFL TV contract is also not up until after the 2017 season, I believe. And the NFL always goes up in value. So I don't see where you could possibly think that 'football season' will affect stock price.

Also - if you just take a look at the annual report - Disney doesn't break out ESPN to its own section. They lump all of their 'cable networks' together. Q3 those cable networks had an income of $2.1bn. (Which, by the way, was up $200m over the prior year which had the added benefit of the World Cup). Parks and Resorts had an income in that period of $4.1bn.

My point: Don't just make stuff up. If anything, broadcast networks that Disney owns (the major cities ABC affiliates, basically) are the most worrisome out of anything. But - those are a very small part of Disney's overall holdings that it won't ever hurt the bottom line too badly.

What I mean is if people are cutting the cable cord during football season and watching football through other means. If they are doing that, ESPN is losing subscribers...like they did this quarter and big institutions panicked...they freaked out and sold massive shares of stock.
Now, Disney did bounce off its 200 day moving average and Disney has a big buy back program. With Star Wars, football, and the holidays on its way I see Disney heading back up to 120.
However, if people are dropping cable and ESPN is losing subscribers during peak football season...then Disney in the short term is in trouble and heading lower until it can prove ESPN is gaining subscriptions again.
Maybe all is well and next quarter proves people aren't leaving cable.
If not...and the stock drops...we could potentially see delays in the parks.

Just throwing it out there...Disney needs to start building now. I see a huge shift
In how people watch tv...a recession will speed the process up.
It's why you are seeing a stock like Netflix skyrocket. It's why all the media companies are getting hit hard.
Disney is in the best position long term out of the media companies, however short term could be difficult.
Just my opinion.
 

doctornick

Well-Known Member
ESPN only has one NFL game per week. So 'football season' has nothing to do with anything. The ESPN/NFL TV contract is also not up until after the 2017 season, I believe. And the NFL always goes up in value. So I don't see where you could possibly think that 'football season' will affect stock price.

Um, "football season" is dramatically important for ESPN since college football is plentiful on the channel and is among the highest rated programming they have (plus the bowls/playoffs now).

That said, I think the concern for ESPN is overblown. Of course, revenues can change over time, but they have a ton of sports programming locked up and live sports are still a very high demand product. If they have to sell direct to consumers at high prices, they can and will.
 

CinematicFusion

Well-Known Member
Um, "football season" is dramatically important for ESPN since college football is plentiful on the channel and is among the highest rated programming they have (plus the bowls/playoffs now).

That said, I think the concern for ESPN is overblown. Of course, revenues can change over time, but they have a ton of sports programming locked up and live sports are still a very high demand product. If they have to sell direct to consumers at high prices, they can and will.

"live sports are still a very high demand product."
I agree with this and it's why I bought more around the 200 DMA of Disney.
However I still have concerns and will be keeping a careful eye on Espn and how many subscribers are staying with them.
I just don't want Disney to have an excuse to delay building in the parks.
 

bcoachable

Well-Known Member
There is no way DHS will be able to keep the small crowds they have now if they don't do something quick... Frozen is already way stale. A Disney park you can be done with in 2.5 hrs??? c'mon guys...
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom