DHS CARS LAND

[BigThunderMatt]

Sure...

Wow @Jimmy Thick

 

[disney fan 13]

Here's my official take...

Disney still has to respond to Universal's $1.5 billion. Avatarland was a response to HP. If you look at the timing of that announcement (Avatar), it took quite a while before Disney made that announcement after the clear success of HP. After the clear success of Carsland in CA, Universal was quick to respond by announcing HP for CA (at the same time they announced $1.5 billion for FL). HP clone for CA is Universal's obvious response to Carsland at DCA. The $1.5 billion for Florida could be seen as a copying Disney's successful $1.3 billion redo of DCA, since Universal Florida is similar in layout as the DLR (with two parks, parking garages, and a shopping and nighttime entertainment complex connecting the two).

A quick response for Disney would be to clone Carsland for DHS, but that won't counter the full $1.5 billion Universal will spend. It may counter the HP expansion or TF ride, but that won't counter the barrage full-on assault enabled by Universal's $1.5 billion investment! If I were a general in Disney's war room, I would draw up a wide response that would bring Carsland to Florida as part of a much larger plan. The plan would construct Carsland sooner than the other elements of it. It would follow in the years afterward with a counter-barrage of missiles aimed at Universal.

Assuming the executives think like me (and they're smart people, so they probably do), a plan like this takes time to develop. Knowing the time it took for Disney to finally respond to HP with Avatarland (and that was just an announcement absent of details other than a projected construction cost), it could be some time before we hear how the mouse will respond. In any case, the plan will most likely include an early build-out of Carsland at DHS.

Your missing one piece of knowledge though, the knowledge that by time a Disney response is made (Late 2016-2017 at the earliest). Disney wouldn't be countering Potter, they would be countering a JP expansion, or the KZ expansion/refurb or whatever else they have up there sleeve, which is why I believe that Disney has lost the battle, though if they start now they can at least make a dent.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

Your missing one piece of knowledge though, the knowledge that by time a Disney response is made (Late 2016-2017 at the earliest). Disney wouldn't be countering Potter, they would be countering a JP expansion, or the KZ expansion/refurb or whatever else they have up there sleeve, which is why I believe that Disney has lost the battle, though if they start now they can at least make a dent.

They HAVE to build things faster though. No more of this contractor 5 day, 8 hours a day workweek with minimal third shift and 60 odd holidays off BS. 24 hour a day, 7 day a week construction on solid, e-ticket caliber attractions across at least 2 of the four parks. This is the only way they can redeem themselves in my eyes.

 

[Captain Neo]

Is Universal's 1.5 billion for transformers, harry potter phase 2, and hotels or will there be other stuff?

 

[disney fan 13]

Is Universal's 1.5 billion for transformers, harry potter phase 2, and hotels or will there be other stuff?

TF, Potter,Simpsons, Cabana and all the other improvements has taken about 700 million.

 

[djlaosc]

TF, Potter,Simpsons, Cabana and all the other improvements has taken about 700 million.

So two JP attractions, Kidzone expansion, one or two Seuss attractions and a new waterpark could probably fit in the remaining 800m?

 

[BigThunderMatt]

So two JP attractions, Kidzone expansion, one or two Seuss attractions and a new waterpark could probably fit in the remaining 800m?

I see everything but the waterpark in that. And keep in mind this is allocated for what? The next 10 years? It's pretty much a done deal that Potter 2.0 will likely make back its initial investment in 90-180 days just like Potter 1.0 did. Everything after that is profit which, if Universal continues their trend, will at least partly be used for capex. And considering Potter 2.0 is supposed to be open by 2014-2015, that's still 5-6 years left in the decade to spend all that profit.

 

[disney fan 13]

So two JP attractions, Kidzone expansion, one or two Seuss attractions and a new waterpark could probably fit in the remaining 800m?

I could see 2 JP attractions (Jeep and expanded CJ),Kidszone expansion, and 1 Suess attraction. I don't see the waterpark in the picture until 2019-2020 so nay on that. Though i'm sure there are other projects we are unaware of.

I see everything but the waterpark in that. And keep in mind this is allocated for what? The next 10 years? It's pretty much a done deal that Potter 2.0 will likely make back its initial investment in 90-180 days just like Potter 1.0 did. Everything after that is profit which, if Universal continues their trend, will at least partly be used for capex. And considering Potter 2.0 is supposed to be open by 2014-2015, that's still 5-6 years left in the decade to spend all that profit.

^What he said.

 

[marni1971]

Universal / Comcast has plenty up their sleeve. It just depends what and when they do first.

 

[djlaosc]

I see everything but the waterpark in that. And keep in mind this is allocated for what? The next 10 years? It's pretty much a done deal that Potter 2.0 will likely make back its initial investment in 90-180 days just like Potter 1.0 did. Everything after that is profit which, if Universal continues their trend, will at least partly be used for capex. And considering Potter 2.0 is supposed to be open by 2014-2015, that's still 5-6 years left in the decade to spend all that profit.

For the waterpark, I guess that it would depend on whether they would be closing Wet n Wild down to build it (and move all the removable slides to the new park, which was the rumour years back)?

When does the 10 years stretch from? 2010-2020? 2012-2022?

And also, if Transformers was tax money, what other "tax avoidance attractions" could we get in the future?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

My take is that Potter kicked TDO upside the head SO hard that they are just left Dazed and Confused

 

[RSoxNo1]

Change it to the Make a Wish Foundation and you got a nice little side bet.

But...

I fully expect you to pay up to a charity of your choice when it don't happen. If you cannot talk the talk, you should not walk the walk so to speak.


Jimmy Thick- Channeling Ric Flair...

You're on. $100 to the Make a Wish Foundation.
If either Universal park passes any Disney park in attendance on the TEA report by the first full year of Harry Potter 2.0 you make a $100 donation, otherwise, I do.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Sidebar: Give Kids The World is a non-profit storybook resort in Kissimmee. They are partnered with the Make A Wish Foundation and over 300 other similar charities from around the world. It is a fantastic place. Both my daughter and I volenteer for them.

http://www.gktw.org/

 

[GoofGoof]

You're on. $100 to the Make a Wish Foundation.
If either Universal park passes any Disney park in attendance on the TEA report by the first full year of Harry Potter 2.0 you make a $100 donation, otherwise, I do.

Disney Parks in FL? If not you already won

 

[RSoxNo1]

Disney Parks in FL? If not you already won

Did a Universal park pass a Disney park in 2012?

 

[GoofGoof]

Did a Universal park pass a Disney park in 2012?

IOA was ahead of DCA, HK Disneyland and Walt Disney Studio Park in Paris in 2011.

 

[twebber55]

Did a Universal park pass a Disney park in 2012?

IOA passed DCA

 

[Jimmy Thick]

You're on. $100 to the Make a Wish Foundation.
If either Universal park passes any Disney park in attendance on the TEA report by the first full year of Harry Potter 2.0 you make a $100 donation, otherwise, I do.

Disney Park in Florida was what I thought this bet was about, either way, I donate money to the Make a Wish Foundation once a month, so no big deal if you choose to chicken out.

But, if your willing, I would make the same wager for any Disney World park against IOA for one full year after Potter phase 2 opens. No way IOA beats any Disney Park even with Potter 2.

Thats one full year, and I would even be willing to start with a full quarter for IOA, meaning if Potter 2 opens in a May, which would be the second month of a quarter, I would forsake that quarter and start with a full 4 months, meaning the next quarter just to have every single day of the year count.

I hope that makes sense.

Jimmy Thick- Always ahead of the game.

 

[The Empress Lilly]

Potter 2 isn't going to make either Orlando UNI park surpass any of the four WDW parks.

 

[The Empress Lilly]

Disney should be asking themselves, how can we make something that will make people so genuinely excited that they'll wait in those kinds of lines?

Why?

If there are lines like that for your product you priced it too low.

WDW needs to become the world's most coveted vacation destination, then raise prices and raise them some more until the lines have disappeared. -> which is not a sign of a failing theme park, but of a very well exploited one.