Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[Shouldigo12]

That's my state - and honestly leveling off is good IMO. Israel saw the same thing, in fact they increased steadier than Ohio is. I figure we'll be up and down for a while. But it's not as bad as I thought so far, but we have only been back from break a week. Other cities were off last week and others this week and next for break. To me spring break will be a driving force for a while.

We'll have to see, I think this is going to be extremely touch and go for the next month. The CDC director has said she has a sense of "impending doom" and feels "very scared", so that's got me a little concerned about how April is going to go.
Edit: source for comments

‘Scared’ CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky warns of ‘impending doom’

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky became emotional at a White House coronavirus press briefing on Monday — her voice breaking as she warned that the US is facing “impending doom”…

nypost.com

 

[bdearl41]

Their numbers were guesstimated and not including vaccines last year.

This ^

 

[bdearl41]

Ask Manaus Brazil how herd immunity worked out for them. And their "herd immunity" was last Fall. It would seem that anyone predicting herd immunity anywhere in this world by the end of May is really taking a wild stab in the dark. YMMV

Having been to Manaus, there is no city in the US comparing to there based on population and living standards.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Is "herd immunity" different in Manaus? Does "herd immunity" operate better here than there? If there is a contingent that thinks the US will achieve what they label as "herd immunity" by the end of May, bully for them. We are not convinced that that will be the case.

 

[ToTBellHop]

We'll have to see, I think this is going to be extremely touch and go for the next month. The CDC director has said she has a sense of "impending doom" and feels "very scared", so that's got me a little concerned about how April is going to go.
Edit: source for comments

‘Scared’ CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky warns of ‘impending doom’

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky became emotional at a White House coronavirus press briefing on Monday — her voice breaking as she warned that the US is facing “impending doom”…

nypost.com

She‘s been doom-and-gloom for 2 months and it is less-impactful every time she says something. “IMPENDING DOOM!!1” will not encourage anyone else to be safer (the scared people just stay scared but their paranoia also makes them mistrust the vaccines) but it will make people say “screw it, if we are all going to die, why bother with masks and vaccines?”

She needs to stop talking in public and focus on the job at hand. We shouldn’t hear from the CDC Director daily. If she must say something to Wolf, say, “deaths and hospitalizations are plummeting in those over 65, most of whom have been vaccinated. So get vaccinated.” People will not suddenly improve their behavior now, after a year. Shots into arms are our only defense moving forward.

 

[MisterPenguin]

She‘s been doom-and-gloom for 2 months and it is less-impactful every time she says something. “IMPENDING DOOM!!1” will not encourage anyone else to be safer (the scared people just stay scared but their paranoia also makes them mistrust the vaccines) but it will make people say “screw it, if we are all going to die, why bother with masks and vaccines?”

She needs to stop talking in public and focus on the job at hand. We shouldn’t hear from the CDC Director daily. If she must say something to Wolf, say, “deaths and hospitalizations are plummeting in those over 65, most of whom have been vaccinated. So get vaccinated.” People will not suddenly improve their behavior now, after a year. Shots into arms are our only defense moving forward.

Well... she's not exactly wrong. Cases are going up all over the U.S., hospitalizations are starting to plateau even though they had been going down. All this while vaccines are ramping up.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Recent report of real world (as opposed to Phase Trials) vaccine effectiveness shows at least 90% reduction of infection, including asymptomatic infection. Thus anyone who is not able to be infected in any manner, is probably incapable of transmitting the virus since they would not have a sufficient viral load in their own body.

CDC: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines are 90% effective in real-world conditions

People who are fully vaccinated with the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna are 90% less likely to get infected with COVID-19, according to a CDC study that tested nearly 4,000 health care workers and other essential workers for the virus weekly. Why it matters: The data show how well the...

www.yahoo.com

By the numbers: The vaccine was 90% against infections regardless of symptom status, the report says.

• Vaccine effectiveness of partial immunization — greater than 14 days after first dose, but before second dose — was 80%.
• The findings provide researchers with more evidence that vaccines reduce the risk of infections, including asymptomatic ones.

This is good news for all of us and may help spur further vaccination acceptance.

 

[GoofGoof]

The confounder is the variants. Immunization and natural immunity will get us to 70% by Memorial Day. But natural immunity is less protective against variants. Hopefully severity is lower on reinfection.

One of the biggest upside of the CDC study is it was done from Dec to March which includes a period in the last 6 weeks where variants have already surged and the vaccines were still highly effective. 90%+ Now we don’t have more than a handful of cases with either the S African or Brazilloan variants but the others, including the one in CA in the winter and the more recent one in NY/NJ are included in that study. Good news.

 

[GoofGoof]

Is "herd immunity" different in Manaus? Does "herd immunity" operate better here than there? If there is a contingent that thinks the US will achieve what they label as "herd immunity" by the end of May, bully for them. We are not convinced that that will be the case.

Technical herd immunity is an r naught less than 1. Right now Israel is below 0.6 and falling. They have reached technical herd immunity but the key is maintaining that level. We are on pace to be where Israel is today as far as percent vaccinated in early May. I’m not saying it’s guaranteed to happen here, but it’s also not impossible.

 

[bdearl41]

Is "herd immunity" different in Manaus? Does "herd immunity" operate better here than there? If there is a contingent that thinks the US will achieve what they label as "herd immunity" by the end of May, bully for them. We are not convinced that that will be the case.

Oh I was surprised by the analysis as well but Morningstar does statistics better than me. Even myself in analytics had July to sept pegged.

 

[bdearl41]

One of the biggest upside of the CDC study is it was done from Dec to March which includes a period in the last 6 weeks where variants have already surged and the vaccines were still highly effective. 90%+ Now we don’t have more than a handful of cases with either the S African or Brazilloan variants but the others, including the one in CA in the winter and the more recent one in NY/NJ are included in that study. Good news.

Remember too JNJs original tests were against the UK and SA variant as well so those numbers were already baked in.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Well... she's not exactly wrong. Cases are going up all over the U.S., hospitalizations are starting to plateau even though they had been going down. All this while vaccines are ramping up.

View attachment 543398

“Impending doom” is outrageous. Even blue state Governors are suggesting this is almost over.

 

[bdearl41]

Well... she's not exactly wrong. Cases are going up all over the U.S., hospitalizations are starting to plateau even though they had been going down. All this while vaccines are ramping up.

View attachment 543398

What’s interesting is where. It’s mostly the states that have been the most shut down like MY, NJ, Mass, Conn, Mich, etc.

 

[bdearl41]

She‘s been doom-and-gloom for 2 months and it is less-impactful every time she says something. “IMPENDING DOOM!!1” will not encourage anyone else to be safer (the scared people just stay scared but their paranoia also makes them mistrust the vaccines) but it will make people say “screw it, if we are all going to die, why bother with masks and vaccines?”

She needs to stop talking in public and focus on the job at hand. We shouldn’t hear from the CDC Director daily. If she must say something to Wolf, say, “deaths and hospitalizations are plummeting in those over 65, most of whom have been vaccinated. So get vaccinated.” People will not suddenly improve their behavior now, after a year. Shots into arms are our only defense moving forward.

This take is probably the best I have read in 6 months. . Our news needs to be more encouraging and positive on the benefits of vaccines versus the doom and gloom.

 

[bdearl41]

Is "herd immunity" different in Manaus? Does "herd immunity" operate better here than there? If there is a contingent that thinks the US will achieve what they label as "herd immunity" by the end of May, bully for them. We are not convinced that that will be the case.

In direct response yes. In Manaus you have people living without running water in shacks on top of each other. There is far better sanitation here. I attached a couple photos I took to give an idea of how spread there can be different regardless of mitigation efforts than here.

 

[ToTBellHop]

What’s interesting is where. It’s mostly the states that have been the most shut down like MY, NJ, Mass, Conn, Mich, etc.

Our governor spoke to this on Friday. While our numbers are rising, they are mostly in reckless people age 18-39, but the hospitalizations remain relatively low.

 

[Shouldigo12]

This take is probably the best I have read in 6 months. . Our news needs to be more encouraging and positive on the benefits of vaccines versus the doom and gloom.

Encourage the benefits, absolutely. But just from my personal experience, I've noticed people seem to think that all covid concerns are over and we can just go back to normal starting now. I do think people, not on this board but just the general public, need to be reminded that we aren't out of the woods yet and if we aren't careful a fourth wave might happen.

Like all things with the vaccine, we just need to figure out a balance. We need to get people interested in the vaccine while making it clear we still have to keep up precautions for a few months.

 

[bdearl41]

Our governor spoke to this on Friday. While our numbers are rising, they are mostly in reckless people age 18-39, but the hospitalizations remain relatively low.

Yea this is what I’m hearing too.

 

[MaryJaneP]

In direct response yes. In Manaus you have people living without running water in shacks on top of each other. There is far better sanitation here. I attached a couple photos I took to give an idea of how spread there can be different regardless of mitigation efforts than here.

Sounds like some of the US states following severe weather. And as far a sanitation, the Covid mitigation measures regarding sanitation (mask wearing, social distancing, and hand-washing) may be about as popular heree as they are there, at least in some parts of this country. But for some, "herd immunity", as they define it, will suffice.

 

[MisterPenguin]

What’s interesting is where. It’s mostly the states that have been the most shut down like MY, NJ, Mass, Conn, Mich, etc.

Did you bother to check the stats before making that assertion?







This is why cases are on the rise in the whole U.S. It's *still* everywhere.