Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

Will you take a Covid vaccine once one is approved and deemed safe and effective by the FDA?

  • Yes, stick me please

  • No, I will wait

  • No, I will never take one


Results are only viewable after voting.

bdearl41

Well-Known Member
Another problem with this vs vaccines is that they are seeing signs of reinfections for older infections (I assume you were a year ago given the months you stated) so even if we have some herd naturally, they aren't as strong against newer strains. As bad as it is, i don't count infections more than a couple months as part of the solution.

Btw thanks for donating blood.
Yea last March I had it I think. Never had any symptoms though so who knows. Being fully vaccinated certainly is the way to go. Overall any campaigns to get people vaccinated I am for.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
At the current pace (which should increase due to JnJ) of 1.59 million fully vaccinated Americans arising each day, 40% of us will be fully-vaccinated by 5/15 and 55% by 6/15. Note 55% of us is 70% of all adults, so it is likely that we will run out of willing subjects for dose 1 before Memorial Day. I suspect even earlier once we start getting a lot of JnJ shots. Novavax may largely miss the boat here.

I understand the rest of the world isn’t there, but we will be ready for kids soon. Reading that Pfizer will start trials with kids in the USA in June is much too late. Any news on the other pharmaceuticals?

Meanwhile, 81% of COVID deaths in the US are in those over 65. 2/3 of them have received at least 1 dose and over 35% are fully vaccinated.

As states start to include those over 50, we prevent 96% of deaths.
Moderna has officially kicked off their kids 6 months to 11 year olds trial. The first phase will establish the preferred dosage to use in the full scale trial. I would expect the 12-17 trial results in the next month or so making kids down to 12 eligible. I’m curious to see if they can wrap this trial up for school age kids before the end of July so they can start vaccinating before the school year.


 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
Moderna has officially kicked off their kids 6 months to 11 year olds trial. The first phase will establish the preferred dosage to use in the full scale trial. I would expect the 12-17 trial results in the next month or so making kids down to 12 eligible. I’m curious to see if they can wrap this trial up for school age kids before the end of July so they can start vaccinating before the school year.


It will take a good deal of time if the first phase of the trial is to establish dosage followed by a second phase comparing a group receive vaccine with a control. I can’t imagine either phase lasting fewer than 4 months. At least they’ve started, though.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
The optimist in me wants to believe we're moving ahead so fast because of the increased vaccine production, but the pessimist in me thinks that Dewine isn't expecting many people in the younger age groups to want it.
Or getting tired of having letters come in because essential workers were neglected. Appointments here are booking up fast.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
The optimist in me wants to believe we're moving ahead so fast because of the increased vaccine production, but the pessimist in me thinks that Dewine isn't expecting many people in the younger age groups to want it.
FYI, a glut of vaccine is expected. Distribution the first week of April will be more than 4x what it was in early February.

CT has outstanding uptake and it opens to all 4/5.
 

Shouldigo12

Well-Known Member
Or getting tired of having letters come in because essential workers were neglected. Appointments here are booking up fast.
I heard rumors the 50+ group wasn't making appointments on my area; apparently there was an email sent to some hospital workers letting them know there more availability than expected if they wanted to rethink getting vaccinated? I didn't see it firsthand so I didn't put much stock on it, but how fast we've been going through the phases had me curious.

Turns out we're just getting more vaccines though, so the optimist half of me was right.
 

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
Moderna has officially kicked off their kids 6 months to 11 year olds trial. The first phase will establish the preferred dosage to use in the full scale trial. I would expect the 12-17 trial results in the next month or so making kids down to 12 eligible. I’m curious to see if they can wrap this trial up for school age kids before the end of July so they can start vaccinating before the school year.


Just to clarify, you mean that the first phase to establish the appropriate dose is for the 6 months-11 year old age range, correct? I believe they are already at the phase 3 trial stage (or, rather, a combined phase 2/3 trial phase) in those 12 and older. Which would mean that group, at least, could potentially receive vaccines before the start of the new school year. Is my understanding matching yours?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
Just to clarify, you mean that the first phase to establish the appropriate dose is for the 6 months-11 year old age range, correct? I believe they are already at the phase 3 trial stage (or, rather, a combined phase 2/3 trial phase) in those 12 and older. Which would mean that group, at least, could potentially receive vaccines before the start of the new school year. Is my understanding matching yours?
Yes, the 12-17 trial is fully enrolled and they expect results in the next month or 2. Pfizer is about a month ahead of them so maybe even sooner for 12-15 since 16 and 17 are already approved for Pfizer. There’s no reason to think kids 12+ won‘t have the vaccine by this Summer at the latest. For school aged kids 6-11 the hope is they are approved by August or sooner when schools start going back. This new study is kids 6 months to 11 years. They are doing a phase 1/2 trial to establish the most effective dose with the lowest side effects and then they shift to a phase 3 study with a placebo group to show efficacy and safety.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
Yes, the 12-17 trial is fully enrolled and they expect results in the next month or 2. Pfizer is about a month ahead of them so maybe even sooner for 12-15 since 16 and 17 are already approved for Pfizer. There’s no reason to think kids 12+ won‘t have the vaccine by this Summer at the latest. For school aged kids 6-11 the hope is they are approved by August or sooner when schools start going back. This new study is kids 6 months to 11 years. They are doing a phase 1/2 trial to establish the most effective dose with the lowest side effects and then they shift to a phase 3 study with a placebo group to show efficacy and safety.
Thankfully, Moderna are separating ages 2-11.9 from 0.5-1.9 since the latter group, I imagine, will be very difficult to enroll and shouldn’t hold back data for older children. I wonder if they will also choose to separate out 2-4.9 as others plan to. In any event, having kids down to 12 vaccinated is a good thing, since that involves most middle schoolers and all high schoolers, the age groups with (slightly) more severe disease and, more importantly, the school types that don’t really allow cohorting (and include lots of extracurriculars and huge cafeterias). The model for keeping elementary schools open is well-developed and highly-effective.

The only question is: will they still demand masks on unvaccinated kids under 12 when everyone else is protected?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
Thankfully, Moderna are separating ages 2-11.9 from 0.5-1.9 since the latter group, I imagine, will be very difficult to enroll and shouldn’t hold back data for older children. I wonder if they will also choose to separate out 2-4.9 as others plan to. In any event, having kids down to 12 vaccinated is a good thing, since that involves most middle schoolers and all high schoolers, the age groups with (slightly) more severe disease and, more importantly, the school types that don’t really allow cohorting (and include lots of extracurriculars and huge cafeterias). The model for keeping elementary schools open is well-developed and highly-effective.

The only question is: will they still demand masks on unvaccinated kids under 12 when everyone else is protected?
Depends on where the country is. If masks are no longer required other places by Aug/Sept then schools probably won’t. If masks are still everywhere else than schools will have no choice.
 

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
Bad news: The CDC is investigating what appears to be a brand new variant, unconnected to any of the other variants, that has been found in a nursing home in Kentucky.

Good news: Most people who were affected by it were unvaccinated and the vaccines appear to be working against the variants.

 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Bad news: The CDC is investigating what appears to be a brand new variant, unconnected to any of the other variants, that has been found in a nursing home in Kentucky.

Good news: Most people who were affected by it were unvaccinated and the vaccines appear to be working against the variants.


The US hasn't been very good at looking for variants so I wouldn't be surprised if there a bunch we don't even know about.
 

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