Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[danlb_2000]

At the current pace (which should increase due to JnJ) of 1.59 million fully vaccinated Americans arising each day, 40% of us will be fully-vaccinated by 5/15 and 55% by 6/15. Note 55% of us is 70% of all adults, so it is likely that we will run out of willing subjects for dose 1 before Memorial Day. I suspect even earlier once we start getting a lot of JnJ shots. Novavax may largely miss the boat here.

I understand the rest of the world isn’t there, but we will be ready for kids soon. Reading that Pfizer will start trials with kids in the USA in June is much too late. Any news on the other pharmaceuticals?

I wonder how efficacy is measured for children? With so many adults vaccinated, and children being much less likely to show symptoms, it could take a while to get enough cases in the control group to meet the trial goals.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I wonder how efficacy is measured for children? With so many adults vaccinated, and children being much less likely to show symptoms, it could take a while to get enough cases in the control group to meet the trial goals.

They may just go with antibody level and safety data since they’ll likely have no other choice (other than “don’t vaccinate them and allow everything to return to normal”). It will be a struggle to convince parents to bring kids in regardless after a year of, “this doesn’t really impact kids but they could kill Grandma!” now that Grandma is protected. And they seem to understand this with the new recommendation that the vaccinated can be around small numbers of low-risk unvaccinated (i.e. the grandkids).

One of the few carrots left was to require vaccination before returning to school, but they are currently throwing that out the window as well. School is safe with kids 3 feet apart without vaccines, don’t you know? Doesn’t matter that they are terrible at keeping the masks on! They are suffering!

 

[CastAStone]

Pfizer and Moderna should be producing 25M doses/week (combined) at their peak run rates, so we have upside there still as well, although I realize delivered and administered are decoupling again.

 

[CastAStone]

Pfizer and Moderna should be producing 25M doses/week (combined) at their peak run rates, so we have upside there still as well, although I realize delivered and administered are decoupling again.

Said differently, Pfizer owes us 55M more doses and Moderna 33M by 3/31 - 17 days including today. That’s 5.2M doses/day.

 

[correcaminos]

Also really further proof a lot of folks have already had it and now have natural immunity.

Another problem with this vs vaccines is that they are seeing signs of reinfections for older infections (I assume you were a year ago given the months you stated) so even if we have some herd naturally, they aren't as strong against newer strains. As bad as it is, i don't count infections more than a couple months as part of the solution.

Btw thanks for donating blood.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Another problem with this vs vaccines is that they are seeing signs of reinfections for older infections (I assume you were a year ago given the months you stated) so even if we have some herd naturally, they aren't as strong against newer strains. As bad as it is, i don't count infections more than a couple months as part of the solution.

Btw thanks for donating blood.

With that said, we aren’t seeing widespread reinfection. It seems mostly to be bleed-through. I’d be curious in the pandemic’s post-mortems to see what percentage of reinfections were in previous mild vs. severe cases and what level of severity we see in reinfections.

We can expect to see bleed-through infections after vaccination, as well.

 

[correcaminos]

With that said, we aren’t seeing widespread reinfection. It seems mostly to be bleed-through. I’d be curious in the pandemic’s post-mortems to see what percentage of reinfections were in previous mild vs. severe cases and what level of severity we see in reinfections.

We can expect to see bleed-through infections after vaccination, as well.

Brazil is the one that comes to mind for the natural herd immunity that gives me some pause but I don't know for sure how accurate the presumed immunity they were talking about was. Not saying negatives on Brazil at all, just a guess could be wrong?

Brazil cases shed more light on COVID-19 reinfection risk | Imperial News | Imperial College London

Researchers believe reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 may be more common than previously thought, after an analysis of people contracting COVID-19 twice.

www.imperial.ac.uk

We at this time are not seeing widespread reinfections here. It's been a few weeks but last I looked we had fewer than 50 cases confirmed globally.

 

[Lilofan]

Kudos to the state of CT. The state is opening up covid vaccines to age 45 and up starting March 19 and age 16 and up starting April 5.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Spring Break and Easter is coming, is there will going to be surge? Much people are getting vaccinating so it probably be safe for Spring Break and Easter.

 

[pixie225]

Spring Break and Easter is coming, is there will going to be surge? Much people are getting vaccinating so it probably be safe for Spring Break and Easter.

Doubt it. Look at pics of Fort Lauderdale beach and tell me there won't be a surge in college-age people. Plus all those they will infect.

 

[DisneyFan32]

 

[correcaminos]

Spring Break and Easter is coming, is there will going to be surge? Much people are getting vaccinating so it probably be safe for Spring Break and Easter.

Depends on when break is. Ours is this week. Not great for traveling so we're home. As time goes on vaccines will counteract spring breakers.

 

[havoc315]

With that said, we aren’t seeing widespread reinfection. It seems mostly to be bleed-through. I’d be curious in the pandemic’s post-mortems to see what percentage of reinfections were in previous mild vs. severe cases and what level of severity we see in reinfections.

We can expect to see bleed-through infections after vaccination, as well.

Brazil is seeing a high rate of very severe reinfection.

Redirect Notice

 

[ToTBellHop]

Brazil is seeing a high rate of very severe reinfection.

Redirect Notice

Well...possibly. A lot of the data in that article is limited, sloppy, and imprecise. It’s also been widely reported that several variants respond to far fewer of the antibodies produced post-vaccination and yet the vaccine still works very well.

Perhaps we won’t be seeing S. American tourist groups at WDW this summer, however.

 

[havoc315]

Well...possibly. A lot of the data in that article is limited, sloppy, and imprecise. It’s also been widely reported that several variants respond to far fewer of the antibodies produced post-vaccination and yet the vaccine still works very well.

Perhaps we won’t be seeing S. American tourist groups at WDW this summer, however.

I’m confident we won’t see South American tour groups.

And I do expect vaccination to provide stronger protection than natural past infection. But I think Brazil is showing that we can’t rely on naturally acquired immunity.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I’m confident we won’t see South American tour groups.

And I do expect vaccination to provide stronger protection than natural past infection. But I think Brazil is showing that we can’t rely on naturally acquired immunity.

I agree. My impression is that severity of disease is strongly predictive of antibody levels.

 

[Lilofan]

I’m confident we won’t see South American tour groups.

And I do expect vaccination to provide stronger protection than natural past infection. But I think Brazil is showing that we can’t rely on naturally acquired immunity.

My friend from Sao Paolo texted me today. She advised the covid situation in Brazil is very bad and she said her president is a psychopath.

 

[CastAStone]

My friend from Sao Paolo texted me today. She advised the covid situation in Brazil is very bad and she said her president is a psychopath.

Sadly, yes and yes.

 

[ToTBellHop]

My friend from Sao Paolo texted me today. She advised the covid situation in Brazil is very bad and she said her president is a psychopath.

Sounds familiar.

 

[CastAStone]

Sounds familiar.

Honestly? Ours doesn’t hold a candle to theirs. https://news.yahoo.com/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-bizarrely-suggests-152705483.html