Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[DisneyFan32]

You'll have to define 'normal'.

There will still be children not vaccinated yet, and people with medical conditions that can't be vaccinated at all. Masks and distancing may go on for a month or two past July.

There may be a variant strain that requires a booster.

If we get cases really low, then states can do the contact tracing they were supposed to have done and quarantine a few pockets to kill off infections in large areas.

The rest of the world will be months behind us.

Unless masks and distancing will may be gone by june/July or August if cases are so low by Memorial Day weekend or June.

 

[ToTBellHop]

You'll have to define 'normal'.

There will still be children not vaccinated yet, and people with medical conditions that can't be vaccinated at all. Masks and distancing may go on for a month or two past July.

There may be a variant strain that requires a booster.

If we get cases really low, then states can do the contact tracing they were supposed to have done and quarantine a few pockets to kill off infections in large areas.

The rest of the world will be months behind us.

My expectations:

1) kids will be back in school nationwide by fall. But will there be masks and distancing? Maybe for a month or two.
2) kids can go trick-or-treating this year
3) kids will go back to being able to sit on Santa’s lap and catch (non-life-threatening) respiratory illness from snot on his beard
4) kids will be able to lick the Pooh queue hunny and catch (non-life-threatening) respiratory illness from it by early 2022

Who’s ready for widespread respiratory particles in the Disney buses again?!

I doubt we will actually see or need widespread vaccination of kids. I certainly see no compelling reason for school districts to require it. And I’m a pro-vaxxer. I’d rather they require flu shots in kids, first. It’s more dangerous for them.

 

[DisneyFan32]

My expectations:

1) kids will be back in school nationwide by fall. But will there be masks and distancing? Maybe for a month or two.
2) kids can go trick-or-treating this year
3) kids will go back to being able to sit on Santa’s lap and catch (non-life-threatening) respiratory illness from snot on his beard
4) kids will be able to lick the Pooh queue hunny and catch (non-life-threatening) respiratory illness from it by early 2022

Who’s ready for widespread respiratory particles in the Disney buses again?!

I doubt we will actually see or need widespread vaccination of kids. I certainly see no compelling reason for school districts to require it. And I’m a pro-vaxxer. I’d rather they require flu shots in kids, first. It’s more dangerous for them.

Masks and distancing may go away by July or August if cases are go down lower I guess.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Masks and distancing may go away by July or August if cases are go down lower I guess.

Perhaps in outdoor spaces but I can’t imagine them going away indoors until fall.

 

[Shouldigo12]

My expectations:

1) kids will be back in school nationwide by fall. But will there be masks and distancing? Maybe for a month or two.
2) kids can go trick-or-treating this year
3) kids will go back to being able to sit on Santa’s lap and catch (non-life-threatening) respiratory illness from snot on his beard
4) kids will be able to lick the Pooh queue hunny and catch (non-life-threatening) respiratory illness from it by early 2022

Who’s ready for widespread respiratory particles in the Disney buses again?!

I doubt we will actually see or need widespread vaccination of kids. I certainly see no compelling reason for school districts to require it. And I’m a pro-vaxxer. I’d rather they require flu shots in kids, first. It’s more dangerous for them.

We know kids have a mild infection course, but considering we aren't sure yet what long term complications might come with an infection and whether those will affect kids, I think it's best they get vaccinated too. Always better to be safe than sorry.

 

[CastAStone]

My best guess as it relates to the parks is

Ride distancing is eased on certain rides starting in late May or June and capacity increased accordingly, and that continues quietly and mostly one ride at a time throughout 2021

Trams return in May or June

Masks rules are eased in May or June first for walking and eating (gotta support those Epcot festivals!) and later in the summer for outdoor spaces period, excluding rides. Indoor spaces I think will take until fall or later. At some point this summer we will get shows and then later meet and greets, with Dining returning to full capacity last, once COVID case rates are around 1 in 100,000.

 

[CastAStone]

Of course if these trends continue, those time frames could collapse. And if they reverse, well, all bets are off.

 

[ToTBellHop]

We know kids have a mild infection course, but considering we aren't sure yet what long term complications might come with an infection and whether those will affect kids, I think it's best they get vaccinated too. Always better to be safe than sorry.

Yes, and I will vaccinate my kids. But if we are following science, as of yet, there is no reason to mandate vaccination in kids.

 

[Shouldigo12]

Yes, and I will vaccinate my kids. But if we are following science, as of yet, there is no reason to mandate vaccination in kids.

Sorry, wasn't trying to imply you wouldn't vaccinate yours. I don't have any doubt you are. Personally, I just think this is a case where it's better to err on the side of caution and mandate vaccination if studies show it's safe and effective for kids. I know we don't have any studies right now to show what long term effects they may end up with, but it'll be a pretty long time we can say for sure they won't have any. We thought for a while kids couldn't end up with severe effects from covid at all, and that rug ended up pulled out from us.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Sorry, wasn't trying to imply you wouldn't vaccinate yours. I don't have any doubt you are. Personally, I just think this is a case where it's better to err on the side of caution and mandate vaccination if studies show it's safe and effective for kids. I know we don't have any studies right now to show what long term effects they may end up with, but it'll be a pretty long time we can say for sure they won't have any. We thought for a while kids couldn't end up with severe effects from covid at all, and that rug ended up pulled out from us.

The longest delay of any suspected side effect from other vaccines is about 6 weeks, and this represents the extreme limit of attributable causes for Guillan-Barré syndrome. Although the potential complications of an adverse vaccine reaction can endure for a long time, we simply don't see new side effects appearing out of the blue months or years later. This is different from medications, which people take continuously and from which chronic toxicities can and do develop. But there really isn't a plausible biologic mechanism how vaccine material, which lingers in the body only very briefly before being broken down, metabolized and excreted, could cause some chain reaction of events that only present much later. Close to a century of safety observation in other vaccines confirms this.

Out of 10s of millions of doses given worldwide thus far, there has not been a single case of Guillan-Barré temporally associated with vaccination (although it should be noted that plenty of people still remain within the potential time window). The worst known reaction thus far is anaphylaxis, which is easily treated and has thus far not resulted in a single death or prolonged hospital stay. Both of the trials of the current mRNA vaccines reported some cases of Bell's palsy, but at a frequency below that of the background population rate. The overall picture from these vaccines is that they are incredibly safe.

Finally, we (in the medical field) knew about the Kawasaki-like syndrome that some kids with COVID-19 can develop back in April. It probably just wasn't publicized in the lay press until much later.

 

[Shouldigo12]

The longest delay of any suspected side effect from other vaccines is about 6 weeks, and this represents the extreme limit of attributable causes for Guillan-Barré syndrome. Although the potential complications of an adverse vaccine reaction can endure for a long time, we simply don't see new side effects appearing out of the blue months or years later. This is different from medications, which people take continuously and from which chronic toxicities can and do develop. But there really isn't a plausible biologic mechanism how vaccine material, which lingers in the body only very briefly before being broken down, metabolized and excreted, could cause some chain reaction of events that only present much later. Close to a century of safety observation in other vaccines confirms this.

Out of 10s of millions of doses given worldwide thus far, there has not been a single case of Guillan-Barré temporally associated with vaccination (although it should be noted that plenty of people still remain within the potential time window). The worst known reaction thus far is anaphylaxis, which is easily treated and has thus far not resulted in a single death or prolonged hospital stay. Both of the trials of the current mRNA vaccines reported some cases of Bell's palsy, but at a frequency below that of the background population rate. The overall picture from these vaccines is that they are incredibly safe.

Finally, we (in the medical field) knew about the Kawasaki-like syndrome that some kids with COVID-19 can develop back in April. It probably just wasn't publicized in the lay press until much later.

I was talking about long term complications from covid. Not the vaccines.

 

[danlb_2000]

Pfizer beginning a trial on pregnant women...

Pfizer to begin Covid vaccine clinical trial in pregnant women

The drugmaker aims to enroll 4,000 expectant mothers.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Heppenheimer]

I was talking about long term complications from covid. Not the vaccines.

Ah, gotcha...

 

[Shouldigo12]

Ah, gotcha...

Still all good information, though!

 

[MisterPenguin]

Pfizer beginning a trial on pregnant women...

Isn't that the plot of "The Scarlet Letter"?

 

[Tom P.]

I think the bottom line that we all have to keep in mind is that these timelines are fluid. While I have my issues with Dr. Fauci, I don't think that he's lying to anyone about vaccine timelines or trying to flip flop. I think he's just trying to be as conservative as possible and cover all the bases as things change. But no one is suddenly saying "oh, well, we're gonna be stuck in the same situation a year from now." It's just a question of a few weeks or months in one direction or another. So many factors from vaccine production to new vaccines being authorized to weather problems to people's willingness to get vaccinated can affect the ultimate timeline.

But I'm not going to get depressed every time Facui or someone else gives an interview suggesting that things might take just a tad longer than we thought. The truth is that what has been accomplished on vaccine production and distribution, along with vaccine effectiveness, in less than a year is nothing short of a miracle. Vaccines are rolling out and ramping up, and all the numbers (cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc.) are looking better and better all the time. I still feel confident that by the time we are in mid-summer, we are in a MUCH better place than we are now. I honestly think we are seeing the beginning of the end of this thing and if we just hang in there for a few more months, we'll all get to breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[danlb_2000]

Isn't that the plot of "The Scarlet Letter"?

Totally different, these women get a big letter P.

 

[correcaminos]

Busier day for me so behind. I think being cautious with time lines is wise. I think we can see outdoor mask restrictions lightened. My kid is already going back to school full time this spring (though masks except eating and distancing in cohorts during lunch) . They are planning for Hamilton in fall here even. It could change but I am hopeful for a more normal summer.

 

[SyracuseDisneyFan]

I also signed up tp get emails from Walgreens and CVS about Covid vaccines.

 

[danlb_2000]

At 21:20 on this week’s “This Week in Virology” podcast, one of the members of the FDA Advisory Panel who made the recommendation on the EUAs talks about exactly why an EUA and not an approval for these vaccines, and what’s missing from a full approval. The TLDL is long term efficacy.

Episode name is “With vaccines, Offit is on it”. I think it’s worth the listen.

I am now going back and listening the the episodes from the start of the pandemic. It's interesting to go back and follow the story in retrospect.