Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[GoofGoof]

We didn’t. Those are numbers reported by 6 am today and some states only report 1x per week, which is why it is better to compare week-to-week.

I was using the Bloomberg tracker. Is that not accurate?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[ToTBellHop]

I was using the Bloomberg tracker. Is that not accurate?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

I use the CDC tracker, which says numbers are accurate as of 6 am this morning. States can’t have already reported today’s numbers. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

 

[GoofGoof]

I use the CDC tracker, which says numbers are accurate as of 6 am this morning. States can’t have already reported today’s numbers. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

I started looking at the Bloomberg tracker because the CDC one was not being updated regularly. Some days it’s good and others it’s not. Bloomberg is using a combination of CDC, state and local reporting as well as interviews to compile their data. I assume since it was updated at 4:18PM that some of the current day numbers are estimates based on appointments vs confirmed injections. Their overall doses shipped and administered is pretty close to the CDC numbers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think a lot of these people believe that the virus is being exaggerated and that we should just go back to life as it was, so a vaccine isn't needed to get us they. I guess they believe if they convince enough people of this it will happen. I have a few Facebook friends who think like this and it's hard to reason with them.

I hope Mother Nature renders judgement

The political bias is strange. Even though Trump downplayed the virus and the precautions that needed to be taken, he was a big supporter of the vaccine and it was developed while he was in office, so it's strange to see more interest from Democrats then Republicans.

Sorry to take this in a political direction, but it is interesting and an important thing to understand if we want to get enough people vaccinated.

Think that was a ploy to flim flam an election??

You do remember the original “date” was 10/31?

If it quack and waddles...

 

[ToTBellHop]

I started looking at the Bloomberg tracker because the CDC one was not being updated regularly. Some days it’s good and others it’s not. Bloomberg is using a combination of CDC, state and local reporting as well as interviews to compile their data. I assume since it was updated at 4:18PM that some of the current day numbers are estimates based on appointments vs confirmed injections. Their overall doses shipped and administered is pretty close to the CDC numbers.

The CDC tracker is now updated daily. In an event, if you only follow one tracker, the deltas should even out in the end, and they’re what really matters.

I would like to think the CDC would have a handle on vaccine administration but you never know. This is a different CDC from the one that didn’t report numbers for 3 days in a row on MLK weekend (COVID-19 takes weekends and holidays off).

 

[MisterPenguin]

Anyone know a good vaccine production tracker?

 

[ToTBellHop]

Anyone know a good vaccine production tracker?

That’s proprietary.

 

[CastAStone]

Anyone know a good vaccine production tracker?

Moderna and Pfizer are both announcing planned shipments for the following week mid week, but I haven’t seen a specific tracker by week. The Washington Post one is keeping track of total doses shipped.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Moderna and Pfizer are both announcing planned shipments for the following week mid week, but I haven’t seen a specific tracker by week. The Washington Post one is keeping track of total doses shipped.

Total shipped so far is easy to find. The Wapo's tracker doesn't even give a total for the U.S. -- one would have to add up each state's total received.

I'm looking for what each producer has shipped so far, and what their goals are. Then, ideally, week by week updates.

Here's what I got so far (in millions):

• Pfizer: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Moderna: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Astrazeneca/Oxford: 150 doses (75 people vaccinated). End of May, 75 doses. End of Summer, 75 doses.
• Novavax: 110 doses (55 people vaccinated). End of May, 110 doses.
• J&J: 200 doses (an extra 100 was ordered) which is 200 people vaccinated (only 1 dose). End of March, 60 doses. End of June, 40 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.

That is a total of 705 people vaccinated. Twice the population of the U.S.


Timeline in adults vaccinated and percentage of all adults:

• End of March: 200 adults vaccinated. 65% of all adults.
• End of May: 280 more adults vaccinated for a total of 480 theoretical adults vaccinated. 155% of all adults.
• End of Summer: 275 more adults vaccinated for a total of 705 theoretical adults vaccinated. 228% of all adults.

Good resource that summarizes all news reports on developments:

COVID-19 tracker: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines sharply cut hospitalizations in older adults, CDC data show

New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. | New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. Europe is on track to reach herd...

www.fiercepharma.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Total shipped so far is easy to find. The Wapo's tracker doesn't even give a total for the U.S. -- one would have to add up each state's total received.

I'm looking for what each producer has shipped so far, and what their goals are. Then, ideally, week by week updates.

Here's what I got so far (in millions):

• Pfizer: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Moderna: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Astrazeneca/Oxford: 150 doses (75 people vaccinated). End of May, 75 doses. End of Summer, 75 doses.
• Novavax: 110 doses (55 people vaccinated). End of May, 110 doses.
• J&J: 200 doses (an extra 100 was ordered) which is 200 people vaccinated (only 1 dose). Production not up to snuff, so, a rough guess: 1/3 by June, 1/3 by Aug, 1/3 by end of 2021.

That is a total of 705 people vaccinated. Twice the population of the U.S.


Timeline in adults vaccinated and percentage of all adults:

• End of March: 100 adults vaccinated. 32% of all adults.
• End of May: 296 more adults vaccinated for a total of 396 theoretical adults vaccinated. 128% of all adults.
• End of Summer: 241 more adults vaccinated for a total of 637 theoretical adults vaccinated. 206% of all adults.
• End of 2021: 68 more adults vaccinated for a total of 705 theoretical adults vaccinated. 228% of all adults.

Good resource that summarizes all news reports on developments:

COVID-19 tracker: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines sharply cut hospitalizations in older adults, CDC data show

New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. | New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. Europe is on track to reach herd...

www.fiercepharma.com

JnJ CEO confirmed on their earnings call that they would meet their target of delivering 100M doses to the US by end of Q2. A board member went a step further and in an interview said that they would deliver the 100M doses by Spring, as early as end of April. He also said they had fully ramped up production. The now mostly debunked NYT article stating that they had huge production delays which would prevent them from meeting goals was apparently overstated. Multiple JnJ officials have said publicly that there aren’t major issues.

Under the original warp speed contract they signed they were projected to have 12M doses end of Feb, 60M end of March and 100M end of June. Those projections were confirmed by management and at least some within the organization feel they will be exceeded. Even the NYT article claiming production delays said they would be caught up by end of April.

Johnson & Johnson Could Have 100 Million COVID-19 Vaccines By April, Board Member McClellan Says

Yellen focuses on $60,000 threshold for stimulus checks

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that she thought income levels identified by conservative Democratic senators to restrict which Americans receive direct payments under the Biden ad…

thehill.com

Johnson & Johnson Expects Vaccine Results Soon but Lags in Production (Published 2021)

The U.S. needs J.&J.’s one-shot vaccine more than ever. But the company is behind on manufacturing promises made in its Operation Warp Speed contract.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Total shipped so far is easy to find. The Wapo's tracker doesn't even give a total for the U.S. -- one would have to add up each state's total received.

I'm looking for what each producer has shipped so far, and what their goals are. Then, ideally, week by week updates.

Here's what I got so far (in millions):

• Pfizer: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Moderna: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Astrazeneca/Oxford: 150 doses (75 people vaccinated). End of May, 75 doses. End of Summer, 75 doses.
• Novavax: 110 doses (55 people vaccinated). End of May, 110 doses.
• J&J: 200 doses (an extra 100 was ordered) which is 200 people vaccinated (only 1 dose). Production not up to snuff, so, a rough guess: 1/3 by June, 1/3 by Aug, 1/3 by end of 2021.

That is a total of 705 people vaccinated. Twice the population of the U.S.


Timeline in adults vaccinated and percentage of all adults:

• End of March: 100 adults vaccinated. 32% of all adults.
• End of May: 296 more adults vaccinated for a total of 396 theoretical adults vaccinated. 128% of all adults.
• End of Summer: 241 more adults vaccinated for a total of 637 theoretical adults vaccinated. 206% of all adults.
• End of 2021: 68 more adults vaccinated for a total of 705 theoretical adults vaccinated. 228% of all adults.

Good resource that summarizes all news reports on developments:

COVID-19 tracker: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines sharply cut hospitalizations in older adults, CDC data show

New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. | New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. Europe is on track to reach herd...

www.fiercepharma.com

Good idea to summarize in one spot.

Also, another small adjustment. Pfizer is now saying 120M delivered end of March so 110M by end of March from Pfizer and Moderna. JnJ isn’t approved yet but should add 30M or more by the end of March. bumping us to 140M

 

[MisterPenguin]

Good idea to summarize in one spot.

Also, another small adjustment. Pfizer is now saying 120M delivered end of March so 110M by end of March from Pfizer and Moderna. JnJ isn’t approved yet but should add 30M or more by the end of March. bumping us to 140M

I thought the 120M was the presumption of one extra dose per vial, and the U.S. presumed it was getting more doses. But then Pfizer said, "you'll get what you paid for" indicating they'll be sending less vials so as to hit the 100M target and not 120M.

 

[GoofGoof]

I thought the 120M was the presumption of one extra dose per vial, and the U.S. presumed it was getting more doses. But then Pfizer said, "you'll get what you paid for" indicating they'll be sending less vials so as to hit the 100M target and not 120M.

We still get 120M doses as long as we take all 6 doses from each vial. They just count 6 doses per vial now instead of 5 for payment. The only difference is we are going to pay for 120M doses when we get 120M doses now instead of paying for 100M doses and really getting 120M. No change for the country except a larger bill from Pfizer.

 

[MisterPenguin]

We still get 120M doses as long as we take all 6 doses from each vial. They just count 6 doses per vial now instead of 5 for payment. The only difference is we are going to pay for 120M doses when we get 120M doses now instead of paying for 100M doses and really getting 120M. No change for the country except a larger bill from Pfizer.

K, thanks.

Update...

Here's what I got so far (in millions):

• Pfizer: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 120 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Moderna: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Astrazeneca/Oxford: 150 doses (75 people vaccinated). End of May, 75 doses. End of Summer, 75 doses.
• Novavax: 110 doses (55 people vaccinated). End of May, 110 doses.
• J&J: 200 doses (an extra 100 was ordered) which is 200 people vaccinated (only 1 dose needed). End of March, 60 doses. End of June, 40 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.

That is a total of 715 people vaccinated. Twice the population of the U.S.


Timeline in adults vaccinated and percentage of all adults:

• End of March: 210 adults vaccinated. 68% of all adults.
• End of May: 280 more adults vaccinated for a total of 490 theoretical adults vaccinated. 159% of all adults.
• End of Summer: 225 more adults vaccinated for a total of 715 theoretical adults vaccinated. 231% of all adults.

We could hit herd immunity by the end of March. Certainly by the end of April unless the three other vaccines never get approved.

 

[GoofGoof]

K, thanks.

Update...

Here's what I got so far (in millions):

• Pfizer: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 120 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Moderna: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Astrazeneca/Oxford: 150 doses (75 people vaccinated). End of May, 75 doses. End of Summer, 75 doses.
• Novavax: 110 doses (55 people vaccinated). End of May, 110 doses.
• J&J: 200 doses (an extra 100 was ordered) which is 200 people vaccinated (only 1 dose needed). End of March, 60 doses. End of June, 40 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.

That is a total of 715 people vaccinated. Twice the population of the U.S.


Timeline in adults vaccinated and percentage of all adults:

• End of March: 210 adults vaccinated. 68% of all adults.
• End of May: 280 more adults vaccinated for a total of 490 theoretical adults vaccinated. 159% of all adults.
• End of Summer: 225 more adults vaccinated for a total of 715 theoretical adults vaccinated. 231% of all adults.

We could hit herd immunity by the end of March. Certainly by the end of April unless the three other vaccines never get approved.

110M by end of March for both shots unless JnJ gets approved then likely 140-150M fully vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

Herd immunity is an interesting topic at this point. Early on we had targeted 60% immune to potentially reach herd immunity. By the time we reach Spring it’s likely that 10% of the population will have been officially naturally infected and who knows how many more were infected but never tested. In addition there will be overlap of people naturally infected and also vaccinated. Also, the vaccines are not 100% effective so some level of immunity less than 100%. To make the math easy let’s say the people naturally protected net with the ineffective vaccines adds about 5% to the total number of people immune. If that’s the case then we need to get to 55% vaccinated. Based on 330M people that’s around 180M people fully vaccinated.

Based on the timeline laid out above we should have enough doses to vaccinate 180M+ people by the end of April. In theory that means we could reach a level of herd immunity as early as May. What does that mean? We have no idea how quickly herd immunity will snuff out the virus. We know that by definition herd immunity means that each infected person infects less than 1 additional person on average. That means the virus still spreads but it spreads exponentially slower down to near zero eventually. How long that takes is a factor of how many cases at the start. A higher starting point means it takes longer to wind down to zero and also how long we keep mitigation measures in place. I know a lot of people won’t want to hear it, but keeping mitigation in place now and even as cases begin to drop will help make it possible we get back to some level of normal by the summer. Not full normal yet, but much better. If we rush to remove mitigation efforts it will take longer for herd immunity to work and we risk blowing another summer. A little sacrifice the next few months is the best thing for a more open summer.

 

[Touchdown]

Herd immunity is easy to measure, when we get nationwide new case numbers to drop to zero/probably fudge to less then 100, were there.

 

[CastAStone]

K, thanks.

Update...

Here's what I got so far (in millions):

• Pfizer: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 120 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Moderna: 300 doses (150 people vaccinated). End of March, 100 doses. End of May (originally end of June), 100 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.
• Astrazeneca/Oxford: 150 doses (75 people vaccinated). End of May, 75 doses. End of Summer, 75 doses.
• Novavax: 110 doses (55 people vaccinated). End of May, 110 doses.
• J&J: 200 doses (an extra 100 was ordered) which is 200 people vaccinated (only 1 dose needed). End of March, 60 doses. End of June, 40 doses. End of Summer, 100 doses.

That is a total of 715 people vaccinated. Twice the population of the U.S.


Timeline in adults vaccinated and percentage of all adults:

• End of March: 210 adults vaccinated. 68% of all adults.
• End of May: 280 more adults vaccinated for a total of 490 theoretical adults vaccinated. 159% of all adults.
• End of Summer: 225 more adults vaccinated for a total of 715 theoretical adults vaccinated. 231% of all adults.

We could hit herd immunity by the end of March. Certainly by the end of April unless the three other vaccines never get approved.

Tracks with what I have:


Also perhaps of interest:

 

[CastAStone]

110M by end of March for both shots unless JnJ gets approved then likely 140-150M fully vaccinated.

The plan for now is that the FDA Advisory Committee will meet on the J&J vaccine on 2/26 and if that goes well you’d expect a full authorization within a couple days. Subject to change but I don’t imagine it will unless something bad is uncovered in the data review (see Zeneca, Astra)

 

[ToTBellHop]

The Astra Zeneca doses should just go in the garbage...

As for herd immunity, it seems increasingly evident that for the S. African variant, vaccines don’t work as well and that natural immunity from the original wild-type for those who were already infected is very low or nonexistent. If that is true, herd immunity will never really be possible. At that point, the focus is on preventing severe cases, which I’ve said has always been the more reasonable goal.

We need to give up on this obsession with herd immunity. It’s not going to happen with a respiratory virus found on every continent.