Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[ToTBellHop]

Agreed. Masks aren’t going anywhere. Right now in PA they have paused all after school activities and while most schools have some form of physical option a lot are still hybrid with half the days virtual. If the cases drop dramatically by April/May I am hopeful a lot of that will end even if masks and physical distancing is still required.

It would be lovely to get kids in full time but very few schools could manage that with 6 feet of social distancing.

 

[danlb_2000]

To my knowledge the number of people reinfected can be counted on one hand. Maybe there are more, but its a big news story when it happens. I would think that based on the second wave we are now having in NY/NJ and PA where I am there would be many reinfections if immunity didn’t last more than 6 months since the big first wave happened March/April which is 8 or 9 months ago now.

I am in no way an expert on this. I know nothing personally. I was an average science student at best (math was my thing) so I am relying on what others are saying on the topic. Experts seem to be pretty optimistic that immunity will be long lasting and some of these experts are the typical doom and gloom types who always paint a negative picture so if they are optimistic that’s a good sign.

As of mid-November there have been 25 confirmed cases of re-infection and 421 suspected cases. A re-infection is only considered confirmed if the genetic makeup of the virus has been determined in both the original case and the re-infection so it can be verified that it is not just the remnants of the first infection. Compared to the 78 million cases worldwide this is still a tiny number.

 

[GoofGoof]

As of this morning we crossed the one million people vaccinated threshold in the US. Pretty exciting stuff:

 

[arich35]

I haven't been following the distribution of the vaccines and the exact plan but when is it expected to be available for people to get and what is the plan to give the vaccines out?

Also do hospitals/health care facilities have to request the vaccine for their employees? My wife works at a pediatric rehab hospital but she has not heard anything about them getting the vaccines

 

[GoofGoof]

I haven't been following the distribution of the vaccines and the exact plan but when is it expected to be available for people to get and what is the plan to give the vaccines out?

Also do hospitals/health care facilities have to request the vaccine for their employees? My wife works at a pediatric rehab hospital but she has not heard anything about them getting the vaccines

It will vary by state. For this first wave my understanding is CVS and Walgreens are administering the vaccine at LT Care facilities on site and hospitals and medical centers will be doing their own distribution. I don’t know all the logistics. I talked to my primary care doctor and she said they will be going to the main hospital Theu are affiliated woth Tje get the vaccine but that probably varies by location.

The CDC plan is to do medical workers and LT care patients first in group 1a. Then 1b is age 75+ and some additional essential workers. 1c is age 64-75, people with conditions that make them higher risk and some additional essential workers. It’s likely to take through March to get all of phase 1 done. Then the general public goes starting likely in April. If additional vaccines are approved that could speed up the timeline.

 

[danlb_2000]

As of this morning we crossed the one million people vaccinated threshold in the US. Pretty exciting stuff:

View attachment 520407

Not bad for the first 9 days, but the pace is going to have to really pick up.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not bad for the first 9 days, but the pace is going to have to really pick up.

Agreed, but due to the 72 hour lag on reporting to the states the administered number is really only Pfizer from 12/14-12/19 so really only 6 days of 1 vaccine. We should see a big ramp up soon as there was that unfortunate 1 week lag for CVS to start doing LT Care facilities and then again when they move on to phase 1b and start doing more widespread distribution to people 75+ (65+ in some states) and also additional essential workers like first responders. I think once we get into the more expanded phases the gap between distributed and administered should narrow too, although at some point they have to start holding back doses for people’s second dose.

 

[GoofGoof]

Here’s an interesting read on the progress. One area that I hadn’t considered is the overlap at hospitals between Covid and other sick patient care and vaccinations. You can’t be in 2 places at once. There is also a chunk of money in the new Covid bill to pay for distribution. We need that bill signed ASAP if we want to reach 20 million vaccinated by end of 2020. No more goofing around. They need to ramp up to 2 million doses a day and that’s double the first 6 days total.

Millions of U.S. vaccine doses sit on ice, putting 2020 goal in doubt — Reuters

Millions of COVID-19 vaccines are sitting unused in U.S. hospitals and elsewhere a week into the massive inoculation campaign, putting the government's target for 20 million vaccinations this month in doubt.

apple.news

 

[Disney Experience]

Agreed, but due to the 72 hour lag on reporting to the states the administered number is really only Pfizer from 12/14-12/19 so really only 6 days of 1 vaccine. We should see a big ramp up soon as there was that unfortunate 1 week lag for CVS to start doing LT Care facilities and then again when they move on to phase 1b and start doing more widespread distribution to people 75+ (65+ in some states) and also additional essential workers like first responders. I think once we get into the more expanded phases the gap between distributed and administered should narrow too, although at some point they have to start holding back doses for people’s second dose.

The latency of reporting administration of the Covid vaccine also distorts the calculation of the rate (and risk) of anaphylaxis in Covid Vaccines vs Flu Vaccines. The rare cases of Anaphylaxis get reported before the true count of shots is known, making the rate of Anaphylaxis incorrectly higher than it is in reality.

 

[GoofGoof]

Most recent poll shows 78% of Americans are willing to get the covid vaccine with 2% undecided. 20% still firmly say it’s never going to happen for them.

USA TODAY

www.usatoday.com

Some quick math - 78% of the population is 257M people. Right now without any additional vaccine candidates coming through the US has enough doses secured for 185M people by June (200 million by July) between Pfizer and Moderna. If one of the others comes through and delivers enough doses for another 100 to 150 million people (JnJ 100M doses or AstraZeneca Oxford 300M doses) that would put us well over the top towards the goal of getting enough for anyone who wants a vaccine by the end of June or sooner. There’s also a very good chance that 78 to 80% vaccinated would be more than enough to reach herd immunity.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Most recent poll shows 78% of Americans are willing to get the covid vaccine with 2% undecided. 20% still firmly say it’s never going to happen for them.

USA TODAY

www.usatoday.com

Some quick math - 78% of the population is 257M people. Right now without any additional vaccine candidates coming through the US has enough doses secured for 185M people by June (200 million by July) between Pfizer and Moderna. If one of the others comes through and delivers enough doses for another 100 to 150 million people (JnJ 100M doses or AstraZeneca Oxford 300M doses) that would put us well over the top towards the goal of getting enough for anyone who wants a vaccine by the end of June or sooner. There’s also a very good chance that 78 to 80% vaccinated would be more than enough to reach herd immunity.

Don't worry. The ones who won't get vaccinated will acquire immunity without the vaccination...

 

[ToTBellHop]

Don't worry. The ones who won't get vaccinated will acquire immunity without the vaccination......

 

[thomas998]

There's no reason to think that immunity acquired from a vaccine will only last for a limited time. Vaccines are designed to induce an enduring response, and this has no direct correlation to how long immunity from the natural infection lasts.

Unless the circulating strains of the virus mutate enough that the current vaccines are longer effective, it would be very surprising if immunity from the vaccine lasts less than a few years, at a minimum.

Then why is the expectation of immunity gained from actually having the virus assumed to be fleeting after 6 months?

 

[thomas998]

This is not entirely accurate. I think the 6 month number is being thrown around because they are seeing that people still have immunity 6 months after infection, the virus just hasn't been around long enough for longer term studies. Evidence is pretty encouraging that the immunity will last much longer then that.

The reality is the vaccine test subjects were only given the vaccines in the summer so there hasn't been anyway to even check for the presence of antibodies in someone 6 months after they were vaccinated.

 

[thomas998]

I expect masks and social distancing for the duration of the 2020-21 school year. It’s rather difficult to revert midstream especially when kids will definitely not all be vaccinated. Fall 2021 could be more normal.

School going back to normal at this point would be a mistake. My daughters school went back to normal at the beginning of the school year (quasi normal with masks and social distancing) and the result was so bad that prior to Thanksgiving half the schools in the district had reverted to distance learning and after Thanksgiving they remained that way until January. Given that none of the kids will have been vaccinated there is no reason to think that things will be any different in the Spring... probably far worse as the number of cases increases the number of kids that will have it will also be higher. And if schools use the same reactive quarantining that ours did you will be better off just staying with distance learning and not trying to go back to normal. In her school if someone missed school because of the virus they trace back any students that sat within a certain distance of the student or that was suspected of being around the student for the magical 15 minutes and then force those students to do distance learning for 2 weeks. And from out experience distance learning when everyone is doing it is much better than being one of the students that is forced to do it for 2 weeks while the school is operating normally. The teachers provided much better interaction with students when they were all distanced than they do when they have 50-70% in class and the rest distanced. My daughter still doesn't know the results of one of the tests in a math class from early October because continued quarantining of students resulted in delays for taking the test which the teacher doesn't want to hand back until everyone has taken it.

I am fully expecting that if our school tries their normal method again in January that they will be closed down and doing distance only before Spring break.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Then why is the expectation of immunity gained from actually having the virus assumed to be fleeting after 6 months?

No, that is not correct. We know that for most people, immunity lasts at least 6 months, if not more. This virus was first identified a little more than a year ago, so we don't have long term data on immunity in the general population. We simply don't know the details yet and only time and more research will tell.

Glass half empty/half full, one of the advantages of completely mismanaging the response to the pandemic is that we'll have plenty of robust data to answer many of these questions.

 

[drizgirl]

School going back to normal at this point would be a mistake. My daughters school went back to normal at the beginning of the school year (quasi normal with masks and social distancing) and the result was so bad that prior to Thanksgiving half the schools in the district had reverted to distance learning and after Thanksgiving they remained that way until January. Given that none of the kids will have been vaccinated there is no reason to think that things will be any different in the Spring... probably far worse as the number of cases increases the number of kids that will have it will also be higher. And if schools use the same reactive quarantining that ours did you will be better off just staying with distance learning and not trying to go back to normal. In her school if someone missed school because of the virus they trace back any students that sat within a certain distance of the student or that was suspected of being around the student for the magical 15 minutes and then force those students to do distance learning for 2 weeks. And from out experience distance learning when everyone is doing it is much better than being one of the students that is forced to do it for 2 weeks while the school is operating normally. The teachers provided much better interaction with students when they were all distanced than they do when they have 50-70% in class and the rest distanced. My daughter still doesn't know the results of one of the tests in a math class from early October because continued quarantining of students resulted in delays for taking the test which the teacher doesn't want to hand back until everyone has taken it.

I am fully expecting that if our school tries their normal method again in January that they will be closed down and doing distance only before Spring break.

Our local district just completed a full semester of in person (grade school) and hybrid (every other week half capacity) for middle and high school. Heading back in January to do the same. Virtual was an option for those who wanted it. Around 20% chose that.

 

[danlb_2000]

Don't worry. The ones who won't get vaccinated will acquire immunity without the vaccination...

... or die trying.

 

[danlb_2000]

Then why is the expectation of immunity gained from actually having the virus assumed to be fleeting after 6 months?

I have not seen anyone actually make that claim.

 

[GoofGoof]

The reality is the vaccine test subjects were only given the vaccines in the summer so there hasn't been anyway to even check for the presence of antibodies in someone 6 months after they were vaccinated.

That’s why the companies producing the vaccines said immunity lasts 6 months, because that’s the longest data they have. They were not saying it only lasts 6 months and then is gone they were saying it lasts at least 6 months based on the phase 1/2 trial participants and as time goes on we will see how much longer it lasts. You are jumping to the conclusion that it will only last 6 months, but there is no current data to support that. For natural infections there are studies out of China that people who were infected Jan/Feb are still showing signs of immune response almost a year later. Immune response from vaccination should in theory be as good or better than natural infection.