Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[GoofGoof]

Has there been any j&j efficacy leaks yet? Astra looks like 70%, it would be really nice if j&j can come in higher.
@GoofGoof

I had read somewhere they may have initial results by the end of the year. Since they had to pause the trial for a few weeks in October I think it will be some time mid-Jan when they reach the 2 months of safety data required by the FDA for emergency use authorization. Like Pfizer and Moderna they can release preliminary results earlier and due to the unfortunate explosion of cases I’m guessing they aren’t having an issue with infections in the placebo group. I’m holding out hope it could be approved by end of January and full approval by as early as May 1. That would get us over the hump for vaccinating everyone who wants one by June. We could get there without it, but that would take so much pressure off the other vaccine‘s having logistical issues.

 

[MrHappy]

I had read somewhere they may have initial results by the end of the year. Since they had to pause the trial for a few weeks in October I think it will be some time mid-Jan when they reach the 2 months of safety data required by the FDA for emergency use authorization. Like Pfizer and Moderna they can release preliminary results earlier and due to the unfortunate explosion of cases I’m guessing they aren’t having an issue with infections in the placebo group. I’m holding out hope it could be approved by end of January and full approval by as early as May 1. That would get us over the hump for vaccinating everyone who wants one by June. We could get there without it, but that would take so much pressure off the other vaccine‘s having logistical issues.

I read it would be submitted late Jan, approval in early feb, then immediate distro.

 

[correcaminos]

Something about that seem wrong. They volunteered to be in the study to help the world out of this pandemic, but also to help themselves be somewhat protected and now because they volunteered they are going to be excluded from benefiting from the vaccine. Why not just sign up those that are against the vaccine and not planning to get it and study how they reacted to not having it. They made that decision anyway, they should have the courage of conviction strong enough to be helpful in perhaps proving themselves correct.

Why does it seem wrong? My biggest concern is that people who had no side effects will leave whether vaccinated or not. But when I signed up I knew I had a 50-50 shot of getting the real deal. I walked out thinking I had a placebo and was okay. I am a lower risk person though so I knew what I walked into. Still being told yes by spring is not bad. They stated they plan to get them vaccinated asap. That's better than the original agreement

 

[Goofyernmost]

Why does it seem wrong? My biggest concern is that people who had no side effects will leave whether vaccinated or not. But when I signed up I knew I had a 50-50 shot of getting the real deal. I walked out thinking I had a placebo and was okay. I am a lower risk person though so I knew what I walked into. Still being told yes by spring is not bad. They stated they plan to get them vaccinated asap. That's better than the original agreement

If you were willing volunteer to test an unproven vaccine then you ought to be able to benefit from that degree of willingness to help society. Meaning, once you are informed that you were given a placebo the only reason to keep following YOU is to see if you get the virus and it's results. Testing to see what percentage of people that do or don't get the virus can be just as accurate following those that resisted, on their own, not to want the vaccine. You with a placebo and those without anything are exactly the same physical risk.

Take a group of 10 people. Five that were issued the placebo (no vaccine) and five that simply refused the vaccine and you have 10 people with exactly the same risk. Why should you, someone that was selfless enough to gamble for the sake of others not be able to get the good results, when the bad results are available to anyone the refuses not only to test but to get the vaccine at all. They pretty much get what they are asking for if they get the virus, whereas I suspect that you are willing to get the vaccine to protect yourself and others otherwise you wouldn't have signed on for the testing. You are completely unprotected just like they are, in fact, exactly like they are and they are doing it by choice. 10 of those people will or at least should give approximately the same results. They have the same degree of risk as you and vice versa.

 

[correcaminos]

If you were willing volunteer to test an unproven vaccine then you ought to be able to benefit from that degree of willingness to help society. Meaning, once you are informed that you were given a placebo the only reason to keep following YOU is to see if you get the virus and it's results. Testing to see what percentage of people that do or don't get the virus can be just as accurate following those that resisted, on their own, not to want the vaccine. You with a placebo and those without anything are exactly the same physical risk.

Take a group of 10 people. Five that were issued the placebo (no vaccine) and five that simply refused the vaccine and you have 10 people with exactly the same risk. Why should you, someone that was selfless enough to gamble for the sake of others not be able to get the good results, when the bad results are available to anyone the refuses not only to test but to get the vaccine at all. They pretty much get what they are asking for if they get the virus, whereas I suspect that you are willing to get the vaccine to protect yourself and others otherwise you wouldn't have signed on for the testing. You are completely unprotected just like they are, in fact, exactly like they are and they are doing it by choice. 10 of those people will or at least should give approximately the same results. They have the same degree of risk as you and vice versa.

I am in the Pfizer/BioNTech trial. I know what I signed up for and why. Maybe you'd be a bad fit for a trial but I know what it meant. I'm okay with it too.

 

[danlb_2000]

I am in the Pfizer/BioNTech trial. I know what I signed up for and why. Maybe you'd be a bad fit for a trial but I know what it meant. I'm okay with it too.

When you sign up do they tell you how long they would prefer you not to get the vaccine if you got the placebo during the trial?

 

[correcaminos]

To expand on my post above. I am doing this for others. I had a call from my aunt's nursing home during an outbreak that she wasn't expected to live. That she could die alone. She recovered but it shook me. I realize I could be unvaccinated. At the time up to 26 months is what they told me. I'm doing this for others and not for me. That's always been the idea. I knew I could be a placebo and the placebos are just as important as the ones vaccinated.

I would love to have it unblinded so those of us who got the vaccines could share true side effects instead of relying on unreliable news giving info.

I am early 40s. Healthy. Few reactions to vaccines (sore arm is my worst). Not as bad off with respiratory viruses as some in my family. Zero health issues and one doc was a heart specialist as well as a primary (odd but it's who was available) so I had pretty good checks on a lot of things. I deal with chronic pain due to spinal issues but none of those are concerning.

I did this knowing I was a good fit. I did this for my family. I knew the odds, but this is for the world, not me.

When you sign up do they tell you how long they would prefer you not to get the vaccine if you got the placebo during the trial?

I was told no vaccines for 2-4 weeks depending on the vaccine after getting a shot. That included all vaccines. I was later than usual for me on getting the flu vaccine as the entire month of Sept plus weeks before and after were out. That's all the specifics I was told. I am allowed to drop out at anytime. If on the off chance I react to saline (which I've had IVs of it during delivery so I am sure I don't) I will follow their protocol. As a younger healthy person with zero health issues I'm last on a list anyway. April would be where I'd be anyway to move to the vaccinated group assuming that will happen one approved. If not I will see if I need proof of vaccination to live my life without hinderance and make difficult choices then. By then it will likely be close to 10 months before I had my first blood draw and nearly a year from signing up. If I need no proof of vaccination I can go longer without issue. To be fair there are many others in my family I'd want to get vaccinated first before me anyway.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I am in the Pfizer/BioNTech trial. I know what I signed up for and why. Maybe you'd be a bad fit for a trial but I know what it meant. I'm okay with it too.

It's OK to be OK with it. I'm not trying to say that you are doing anything wrong, I just think that it is like having an unnecessary or unwarranted punishment for helping society. Just because you were willing doesn't mean that I think it is fair. It wouldn't probably apply to me anyway. I'm almost 73 years old and have COPD so I would probably not get the placebo.

I feel like you think that I think that you were wrong to do this. There is no need to defend yourself, you are doing a brave, selfless and great service for a whole large portion of mankind. I just can't come up with a reasonable reason why you should have to remain exposed to a virus that you have gone the extra mile to establish as a good thing. That is all, I'm saying. I thank you for taking part and it might just give me a few more years of life and I cannot put a monetary value on that. I just don't want to see someone that did what was needed and then is just left out there to hopefully not get infected. I only wish you the best. If at this point the numbers give it a good ratio then what is accomplished by continuing to expose you to the possibility of getting the virus. Again, thanks for doing above and beyond that call of duty.

 

[GoofGoof]

Peter Marks, director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in a statement earlier Friday, "Following yesterday's positive advisory committee meeting outcome regarding the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has informed the sponsor that it will rapidly work toward finalization and issuance of an emergency use authorization. The agency has also notified the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Operation Warp Speed, so they can execute their plans for timely vaccine distribution," they said.

 

[GoofGoof]

Moderna announced today that the US federal government exercised an option to buy an additional 100 million doses of their Covid vaccine bringing the total purchased to 200 million doses (enough for 100 million people). The first 100 million doses are expected to be delivered in Q1 (20 million before year end) and the second 100 million to be delivered in Q2. That means at least 300 million doses (enough for 150 million people) between Pfizer and Moderna by the end of June and that doesn‘t include any additional doses we could buy from Pfizer under that option. It’s possible they would have enough for 200 million people by the end of June or 60% of the population (80% of adults). Now if JnJ and/or Astra Zeneca get emergency approval in January it’s possible that they reach the goal of having a vaccine for every American who wants one by June and possibly even sooner.

Moderna has confirmed the following supply agreements of committed orders totaling more than 390 million doses:

• United States: 200 million doses with option for an additional 300 million doses
• European Union: 80 million doses with option for an additional 80 million doses
• Japan: 50 million doses
• Canada: 40 million doses with option for an additional 16 million doses
• Switzerland: 7.5 million doses
• United Kingdom: 7 million doses
• Israel: 6 million doses
• Qatar
• Other countries, which have placed orders and have not been disclosed.

U.S. Government Exercises 1st Option for Additional 100 Million Doses of Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate | Moderna, Inc.

Total of 200 million doses ordered by the U.S government to date Additional doses ordered today will be delivered in Q2 2021 U.S. government retains option to purchase up to an additional 300 million doses CAMBRIDGE, Mass. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 11, 2020-- Moderna, Inc.

investors.modernatx.com

 

[danlb_2000]

Peter Marks, director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in a statement earlier Friday, "Following yesterday's positive advisory committee meeting outcome regarding the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has informed the sponsor that it will rapidly work toward finalization and issuance of an emergency use authorization. The agency has also notified the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Operation Warp Speed, so they can execute their plans for timely vaccine distribution," they said.

According to a CNN article Pfizer and the FDA are still hashing out the exact wording of an allergy warning for the vaccine.

 

[correcaminos]

It's OK to be OK with it. I'm not trying to say that you are doing anything wrong, I just think that it is like having an unnecessary or unwarranted punishment for helping society. Just because you were willing doesn't mean that I think it is fair. It wouldn't probably apply to me anyway. I'm almost 73 years old and have COPD so I would probably not get the placebo.

I feel like you think that I think that you were wrong to do this. There is no need to defend yourself, you are doing a brave, selfless and great service for a whole large portion of mankind. I just can't come up with a reasonable reason why you should have to remain exposed to a virus that you have gone the extra mile to establish as a good thing. That is all, I'm saying. I thank you for taking part and it might just give me a few more years of life and I cannot put a monetary value on that. I just don't want to see someone that did what was needed and then is just left out there to hopefully not get infected. I only wish you the best. If at this point the numbers give it a good ratio then what is accomplished by continuing to expose you to the possibility of getting the virus. Again, thanks for doing above and beyond that call of duty.

No I don't think you were saying I was wrong. I just explained what I thought. I appreciate the kind thoughts, but I definitely do not see it as a punishment. Granted at this point both my doctor and myself are pretty convinced I didn't get a placebo. But had I, I would do what I offered to do to help others. Like I said if I run into issues because I cannot prove a vaccine or need a vaccine (assuming I'm placebo) to live a normal-ish life, then I will cross that bridge when it happens.

I did know going in that I'm about last on the list of those who would be vaccinated anyway if there are vaccines available. I am not sure who really would be below me but when you're medically boring in most ways (outside of spinal issues, which is not related to overall health) and you're a freak of nature who has never taken an oral antibiotic in the 40+ years of life, nor has had chickenpox, nor strep, nor anything remotely bad, or even getting a sniffle after my kid had another strand of coronavirus like 2 years ago (vs my husband who did get ill) I have a better shot at being unvaccinated than even my own husband.

I'm honestly thrilled to have been a part of this so far. It hopefully will protect those in need soon! That really makes it worth it. That said the trial has stated they feel an ethical obligation to vaccinate placebos. If they do with full approval in the spring, the timeline will likely have moved up for me LOL. I will not say I wasn't ever scared to do this, but my call to do it was strong and with my history and background I am a prime candidate.

 

[GoofGoof]

....and it’s official. Now just waiting on CDC approval and they can start vaccinating people

FDA authorizes Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

The first doses of the vaccine will be delivered in less than 24 hours, President Trump said Friday.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Ricky Spanish]

I’m jumping in a little late and I really haven’t read the previous 18 pages but
ISN’T THIS THE PLOT OF MOST ZOMBIE MOVIES???

 

[correcaminos]

....and it’s official. Now just waiting on CDC approval and they can start vaccinating people

FDA authorizes Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

The first doses of the vaccine will be delivered in less than 24 hours, President Trump said Friday.

news.yahoo.com

It's a start... I do wish the US had been smarter about orders though.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's a start... I do wish the US had been smarter about orders though.

The way I read it was that they were still negotiating with Pfizer for the optional doses. Pfizer has contracts with other countries too and a German partner who developed the vaccine which is founded by 3 German billionaires using money from the German government so it’s not a pure “American“ vaccine unlike Moderna which took Warp Speed money directly from the US government for research and development. The EU bought 300M doses of the Pfizer vaccine and Japan bought 120 million with the UK in for 40M doses. Including the 100M US doses and several smaller buys from other countries that’s about half the total doses Pfizer said they could produce in 2021. I think the rub now is if the US exercises part of their 500 million dose option when will the extra doses come? Do they have to wait until after the EU, UK, Japan and others get their doses all delivered or do they slot in with those doses and get delivered around the same time delaying the rollout to everyone else. If we have to wait then we don’t get any additional doses until around June. If they convince Pfizer to move the US up in the delivery order then it could start sooner. The negotiation is ongoing and the warp speed guys claim that Pfizer wants them to agree to purchase at a set price without guaranteeing a delivery date and they don’t want to exercise an option for more doses if they don’t come until the Fall.

 

[correcaminos]

The way I read it was that they were still negotiating with Pfizer for the optional doses. Pfizer has contracts with other countries too and a German partner who developed the vaccine which is founded by 3 German billionaires using money from the German government so it’s not a pure “American“ vaccine unlike Moderna which took Warp Speed money directly from the US government for research and development. The EU bought 300M doses of the Pfizer vaccine and Japan bought 120 million with the UK in for 40M doses. Including the 100M US doses and several smaller buys from other countries that’s about half the total doses Pfizer said they could produce in 2021. I think the rub now is if the US exercises part of their 500 million dose option when will the extra doses come? Do they have to wait until after the EU, UK, Japan and others get their doses all delivered or do they slot in with those doses and get delivered around the same time delaying the rollout to everyone else. If we have to wait then we don’t get any additional doses until around June. If they convince Pfizer to move the US up in the delivery order then it could start sooner. The negotiation is ongoing and the warp speed guys claim that Pfizer wants them to agree to purchase at a set price without guaranteeing a delivery date and they don’t want to exercise an option for more doses if they don’t come until the Fall.

That's my understanding too - they are still "in talks" Remember this is the trial I am in so I made sure I knew more about it. So I am aware it's more global than Moderna. I know it was not a part of OWS. I don't want to be political here, I just feel something is eh to me about this 'deal' My whole point was 100 million is only 50 million people. They could've done better. BUt we do have countries who have more than they need so maybe they'll take pity on us too

 

[GoofGoof]

That's my understanding too - they are still "in talks" Remember this is the trial I am in so I made sure I knew more about it. So I am aware it's more global than Moderna. I know it was not a part of OWS. I don't want to be political here, I just feel something is eh to me about this 'deal' My whole point was 100 million is only 50 million people. They could've done better. BUt we do have countries who have more than they need so maybe they'll take pity on us too

It Would have been wise to double all the original orders for the vaccines that took 2 doses per person. Looking back now if they got enough for 100M people per vaccine candidate then all they would need is 2 to get pretty close to herd immunity levels. 3 would be over the top for sure. They did bet heavier on the Oxford AstraZeneca one which was more of the front runner this summer and outside of any US control.

 

[correcaminos]

It Would have been wise to double all the original orders for the vaccines that took 2 doses per person. Looking back now if they got enough for 100M people per vaccine candidate then all they would need is 2 to get pretty close to herd immunity levels. 3 would be over the top for sure. They did bet heavier on the Oxford AstraZeneca one which was more of the front runner this summer and outside of any US control.

I do worry about that Oxford/AstraZeneca one though. Not Modernas really. When I joined in July they were all close but yes, Oxford was leading. It didn't take much for each of them to go at different speeds. A smart person would put same on each, not what is just the front runner until one knows what the efficacy was. This isn't a time to place bets IMO and that's kinda what happened. It's easier to buy more and sell later to those who need. Even if not at a profit, money still wouldn't be lost. But that's me. Just the few things I've read the last few days about Pfizer vaccine and orders has me shaking my head.

 

[GoofGoof]

I do worry about that Oxford/AstraZeneca one though. Not Modernas really. When I joined in July they were all close but yes, Oxford was leading. It didn't take much for each of them to go at different speeds. A smart person would put same on each, not what is just the front runner until one knows what the efficacy was. This isn't a time to place bets IMO and that's kinda what happened. It's easier to buy more and sell later to those who need. Even if not at a profit, money still wouldn't be lost. But that's me. Just the few things I've read the last few days about Pfizer vaccine and orders has me shaking my head.

I hope that the Oxford trial shows better or at least more consistent results here. It’s also possible that if the results show it’s highly effective (90%+) in adults under 65 and not as high for older adults then they may just recommend only giving it to under 65 adults. Moderna and Pfizer use similar technology so it makes sense they are similar in efficacy. We don’t know about the JnJ one either right now but that’s based off their Ebola vaccine which is a 3rd technology. It must be a science geek’s dream come true to see all this new science in action. I was about average in science, more of a math wiz, but it’s still pretty exciting for me to see. I have a good friend from college who works for JnJ as a scientist and he works directly on vaccine development and logistics but isn’t directly involved in this vaccine.