Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[EpcoTim]

Do you have a link to a study or report showing that vaccinated people are less likely to be tested? In my experience the people who took covid seriously from day 1 are mostly all vaccinated and those people are also much more likely to get tested if exposed. I know a number of fully vaccinated people who have gotten tested for Covid since their vaccination. I’ve never heard this narrative so I’m just curious if this is something people are actually saying or just an opinion.

No link or evidence of it, personal experience. Never should have made that sound like fact like I did. Apologies.

 

[mmascari]

I get that, but it’s not a zero sum game either way. Saying that only the unvaccinated are spreading the disease with their “tainted” mouths (from a post that was not yours) is side-stepping another issue, one that could be serious. One side is much more likely but the other is not immune.

What do you think the percentage breakdown is?

In an area with transmission occurring, what percent is from unvaccinated vs vaccinated?

Is it 90% unvaccinated, 10% vaccinated?
80%-20%?
50%-50%
95%-5%?
30%-70%, mostly from vaccinated?

Clearly there will be something, and it’ll be a percentage of the whole. So, in an area with high transmission, the vaccinated need to take more precautions. Since even if it’s just 5%, 5% of a really big number like FL transmission levels, is still a large raw number.

Which kind of exactly matches the current guidance. At a low transmission level, 5% of a really small number, is super small.

So, what do you think the split is? A 50%-50% split would make them both an issue to worry about at all transmission levels. I think the split is so skewed towards the unvaccinated being the driver, that it dwarfs the vaccinated's impact on spread. To the point that it only matters when spread is very bad. Of course, it’s very bad most places these days, not like FL, but not great.

I prefer the phrase “used lung air”. It matches the mechanics and reminds us of exactly how transmission is occurring.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

that would be a gutsy move if TWDC implemented it

I was thinking that would be a government action.

It was pretty much how every province in Canada did it. The message was clear, get vaccinated and things like movie theaters would reopen, you could gather with more people, etc. Now that vaccinations have stalled somewhat and Delta has caused cases to rise, vaccine passports are about to come into effect.

It's pretty obvious Florida would fight any such policy tooth and nail, so it's more of a pipe dream. Disney couldn't require proof of vaccine even if they wanted to.

 

[EpcoTim]

What do you think the percentage breakdown is?

In an area with transmission occurring, what percent is from unvaccinated vs vaccinated?

Is it 90% unvaccinated, 10% vaccinated?
80%-20%?
50%-50%
95%-5%?
30%-70%, mostly from vaccinated?

Clearly there will be something, and it’ll be a percentage of the whole. So, in an area with high transmission, the vaccinated need to take more precautions. Since even if it’s just 5%, 5% of a really big number like FL transmission levels, is still a large raw number.

Which kind of exactly matches the current guidance. At a low transmission level, 5% of a really small number, is super small.

So, what do you think the split is? A 50%-50% split would make them both an issue to worry about at all transmission levels. I think the split is so skewed towards the unvaccinated being the driver, that it dwarfs the vaccinated's impact on spread. To the point that it only matters when spread is very bad. Of course, it’s very bad most places these days, not like FL, but not great.

I prefer the phrase “used lung air”. It matches the mechanics and reminds us of exactly how transmission is occurring.

I have no idea and no educated guess what the ratio is, I'm guessing its highly skewed in one direction but not sure that warrants the dismissal of the other possibility.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Not false equivalency at all and it has zero to do with forgiveness.

My point was - vaccinated people can still carry it and pass it to others and are less likely to get tested because they show no symptoms or have, not sure what to call it, Vaxx ego? Implied immunity due to vaccination?

Regardless, any and all numbers need to be looked at and being overly confident because you’re vaccinated is only slightly better than being overly confident and not vaccinated.

Sayings it’s only slightly better is the false equivalency.

 

[mmascari]

I have no idea and no educated guess what the ratio is, I'm guessing its highly skewed in one direction but not sure that warrants the dismissal of the other possibility.

The house is flooding. There’s a burst pipe and a kid is spilling a drink.

We shouldn’t ignore the drink spilling, but if it’s distracting from the burst pipe, we’re focusing on the wrong item.

It’s like focusing on plexiglass dividers and cleaning surfaces every 10 minutes while ignoring ventilation updates, or treating all 3 with the same priority. It’s missing the goal.

 

[EpcoTim]

Sayings it’s only slightly better is the false equivalency.

I can see that, should have been presented as a ratio but the data doesn't exist yet.

 

[GoofGoof]

What do you think the percentage breakdown is?

In an area with transmission occurring, what percent is from unvaccinated vs vaccinated?

Is it 90% unvaccinated, 10% vaccinated?
80%-20%?
50%-50%
95%-5%?
30%-70%, mostly from vaccinated?

Clearly there will be something, and it’ll be a percentage of the whole. So, in an area with high transmission, the vaccinated need to take more precautions. Since even if it’s just 5%, 5% of a really big number like FL transmission levels, is still a large raw number.

Which kind of exactly matches the current guidance. At a low transmission level, 5% of a really small number, is super small.

So, what do you think the split is? A 50%-50% split would make them both an issue to worry about at all transmission levels. I think the split is so skewed towards the unvaccinated being the driver, that it dwarfs the vaccinated's impact on spread. To the point that it only matters when spread is very bad. Of course, it’s very bad most places these days, not like FL, but not great.

I prefer the phrase “used lung air”. It matches the mechanics and reminds us of exactly how transmission is occurring.

I think this makes sense. We have to realize that breakthrough infections are rare, but the more community spread there is the more breakthrough infections occur. The large driver of high community spread is not breakthrough infections but unvaccinated people spreading Covid. My hope is that if we get enough people vaccinated community spread drops way down and never goes back up. If everyone is vaccinated they are all less likely to get infected and as a result less likely to spread Covid.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Base on your statement we should shut down WDW, cancel college football, pro football.

No need to shut down and cancel. You can limit crowds, require masks, and require vaccination / covid test.

that would be a gutsy move if TWDC implemented it

Is it gutsy for broadway theaters to implement it?

 

[BrianLo]

Someone I work with who is an anti-vaxx conspiracy nut insists the pandemic was planned by a "global cartel" as a way to inject everyone with "nano chip trackers" (I'm not making this up...). He also subscribes to the Dr. Phillips Broadway season, like I do. They just recently announced a vaccination requirement as of 10/1. He's already told me "don't worry I know a guy who'll get you a fake vaccine card for $50." I told him that I wasn't the least bit worried because I got vaccinated months ago. I'm really tempted to report him, however.

I don’t think anyone here has outlined how some of the province vaccine passports actually work yet. I’m actually pretty impressed how simplistic, yet non-prone to abuse the system is.

BC for example (non-essential activities - no exemptions: religious or medical).

The vaccine passport is generated by the health authority, which has record of your vaccine status already. What’s displayed on your phone and print out is strictly your name, vaccine status (no, 1, complete) and a QR code. All vendors have access to an app that scans the QR code, handshakes with the central server against your Personal Health Number (again this is essentially invisible) that spits back again name, vaccine status to the vendors smart phone or tablet.

The process essentially comes down to scan the QR code (you can have a printed laminated copy if you want), check against your government ID.

So really the only way to “fake it” is to literally steal someone’s identity.

This is the system the US needs.

 

[GoofGoof]

Is it gutsy for broadway theaters to implement it?

It’s not against state law in NY to use vaccine passports. I wouldn’t say gutsy, maybe just expensive and time consuming to fight in court.

 

[LaughingGravy]

Base on your statement we should shut down WDW, cancel college football, pro football.

You have heard this is a pandemic (around the world! ) with variants that have since come up, that can hit old and young alike, with some people fine and others with disastrous results with no rhyme or reason and that there are factions of people who have been vaccinated as children and have not experienced any of the horrid things they were vaccinated against, (proof) yet are listening to clear non science and believing ridiculous things in the name of "freedom", having nothing to do with freedom and rights, yet somehow having feelings as if this were the revolutionary war over a public health issue, which can easily, I mean really easily fixed at this point if it weren't for childish behavior being accepted as "rights", right?

Yes, shut it down again if necessary, or just wash our hands and let the unvaxxed on purpose with no good reason shuffle off the mortal coil with all the associated consequences of cost and pain and lifelong wondering if "what if" for their friends, family and the future generations, not to dissimilar to those who know or are related to those who died on 9/11 or other war conflicts.

9/11 hits a little home for me.
Today, it's all a little Watchmen/ alternate universe "esque".
I wish you all well today.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

It’s not against state law in NY to use vaccine passports. I wouldn’t say gutsy, maybe just expensive and time consuming to fight in court.

Umm... you mean like Norwegian Cruise Line did?

 

[LaughingGravy]

I don't know anyone vaccinated who thinks they are. My risks are low and I'd prefer mask free, but I'm not sure where you see people here at least saying that. I'm sure IRL some do, but not sure how many to even think this is an issue.

Oh, it's an issue. Really hard to get numbers, but go to the supermarket and really pay attention to the details of people's habits as an easily monitored example. I am not saying it's the dole source, but it's indicative of attitudes.
How many are having gatherings of unmasked as this is over?
We have some really nice friends down the street we would love to get together with and did one time after we were all fully vaxed, and then this Delta took hold.
We wish each other well electronically, but are really doing our best to be back in lockdown mode, interacting only when necessary and keeping good habits.
If more vaxxed did that, it would help a lot, but caution is to the wind for many, almost triple dog daring the virus to come.

 

[sullyinMT]

I don’t think anyone here has outlined how some of the province vaccine passports actually work yet. I’m actually pretty impressed how simplistic, yet non-prone to abuse the system is.

BC for example (non-essential activities - no exemptions: religious or medical).

The vaccine passport is generated by the health authority, which has record of your vaccine status already. What’s displayed on your phone and print out is strictly your name, vaccine status (no, 1, complete) and a QR code. All vendors have access to an app that scans the QR code, handshakes with the central server against your Personal Health Number (again this is essentially invisible) that spits back again name, vaccine status to the vendors smart phone or tablet.

The process essentially comes down to scan the QR code (you can have a printed laminated copy if you want), check against your government ID.

So really the only way to “fake it” is to literally steal someone’s identity.

This is the system the US needs.

Our biggest failure in this regard is the inability to do something like this with the disjointed mess that is US healthcare IT and limited interoperability. When it was announced that the CDC wouldn’t be managing a central database, and multiple states limited access to the data (illegal imo, as we “own” our health data and they just manage it), a logical system like you describe isn’t going to happen. And it’s a real shame, too.

 

[correcaminos]

Oh, it's an issue. Really hard to get numbers, but go to the supermarket and really pay attention to the details of people's habits as an easily monitored example. I am not saying it's the dole source, but it's indicative of attitudes.
How many are having gatherings of unmasked as this is over?
We have some really nice friends down the street we would love to get together with and did one time after we were all fully vaxed, and then this Delta took hold.
We wish each other well electronically, but are really doing our best to be back in lockdown mode, interacting only when necessary and keeping good habits.
If more vaxxed did that, it would help a lot, but caution is to the wind for many, almost triple dog daring the virus to come.

Masks are worn indoors here by 90-95% in stores. 100% wore indoors for set/prop organizing and building for a school production - we are not required indoors after hours.

Any gatherings are fully vaxxed and small company or entirely masked indoors.

So no, not seeing it. Spoken as a mask hater, but wearer too. However as has been said repeatedly vaccinated are not the ones getting sick as much. So not sure why you are blaming them. Also neighbors not even talking 20 feet apart or masked? No, sorry that's something serious people did last year. I think your blame is misguided tbh

 

[MrHappy]

Sorry to hear about your mom. Hopefully she is doing better.
How sure of you it was unvaccinated adults at the family gathering that gave her Covid? Did you hear later that one or more had Covid? Could it have been a child present that had covid and had no symptoms? Also she could have gotten it from outside of the family gathering. Vaccinated adults can have covid with no/minor symptoms might have been present.

My unvaccinated cousin had COVID, along with his wife and newborn. They didn’t know it at the time they encountered my mother. But they had it, spread it, and moved on. I told my mother let this be a lesson: trust no one.
My mother’s temp was down to 97 today, lots of fatigue and no taste or smell. I’m calling that a win for now.

 

[BrianLo]

Our biggest failure in this regard is the inability to do something like this with the disjointed mess that is US healthcare IT and limited interoperability. When it was announced that the CDC wouldn’t be managing a central database, and multiple states limited access to the data (illegal imo, as we “own” our health data and they just manage it), a logical system like you describe isn’t going to happen. And it’s a real shame, too.

Yes, I also don’t think this is feasible without Universal Health Care, the more I think about it. Plus one already needs an electronic based repository of vaccine status (pre-COVID) to pull this off.

 

[sullyinMT]

Yes, I also don’t think this is feasible without Universal Health Care, the more I think about it. Plus one already needs an electronic based repository of vaccine status (pre-COVID) to pull this off.

UHC is t necessary in this respect. But the repository needs to exist beyond single health systems. States actually have vaccine info, that doesn’t cross state lines, and when we move from one state to another the transfer is pretty easy. There are efforts since the passage of the ACA to correct the issues, but it’s not robust in all 50 states. And then there are the active efforts in some states to block the info from being accessed by third parties for private passports. When the WH said there would be no federal program, we were doomed.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Vaxx'd or unVaxx'd you can still spread it just the same.

Absolutely not.

Just because both *can* spread COVID doesn't mean "it's the same." Absolutely not.

First of all, the vaccinated get breakthroughs at a fraction of the rate of the unvaccinated. Just look at those hospitalized for COVID, and the vaccinated is a small fraction of the total. SO.... if they're getting sick much less often, then they are contagious much less often.

Secondly, the number of days a vaccinated breakthrough infection is contagious is only a few days, wherein for someone not vaccinated, it's over a week.

So, let's say the more contagious Delta Variant has an R0 of 1.5. Now consider this scenario: a convention of 10,000 unvaccinated people begins with 10 infected people. The first day, they infect 15 more. On day two, the 25 infected people infect 37 more people. On day three, the 62 infected people infect 93 more people. And so on... The infection will explode in this superspreader event.

Now consider another scenario: there's another convention of 10,000 people who are all vaccinated. Ten of them show up infected with COVID. But, in the vaccinated population, the R0 is a fraction of what it is for the unvaccinated... let's say it's 0.15. So, the first day, the ten infected will infect at most 2 people. On day two, the 12 infected infect another 2. On day three, the 14 infected infect another 2. On day four, there are now only 6 infected people, because the first 10 are no longer infected BECAUSE THEY WERE VACCINATED. In a few more days, COVID will be eliminated from the convention of the vaccinated.

So... they don't spread it just the same.