Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDave71]

 

[havoc315]

I believe you are right. Since the number of possible victims of Covid19 is limited to the unvaccinated or those who haven't had Covid19 there are only 100 million possible victims left. If heard immunity with such a high variant is about 80% once we are down to 60 million uninfected and unvaccinated we will be fine, only 20 million more victims or vaccinated needed. If we could get back to 2 million vaccinations a day like we had in January we could be there in 5 weeks. TAKE THE SHOT. GET VACCINATED SO WE CAN BEAT COVID19 INTO THE GROUND.

Problem is, epidemiologists are calculating herd immunity for delta at closer to 100%.

 

[DisneyCane]

Did you guys see the mayoclinic projection for Florida? We are track to have 83,000 a day in Florida by august 9

That's horrible news for the Sunshine State.

I think they said it’s a range of a projection? Somewhere between 49,000 a day up to 86,000 a day (rough numbers) with their estimate being 83,000

today we had over 16,000

What was Florida's numbers during the last wave? 83,000 is mind boggling.

I think the most Illinois had was 6 or 7,000.

Are you sure they think 86, 000 new cases in a single day? The CDC projections were showing a similar number, but theirs was a 7-day average. I think they said 100,000 a week peak in about 3 weeks. Or maybe I was reading the chart incorrectly?

Who knows what will happen. Keep this in mind though, about half of the population is vaccinated so about 11M unvaccinated people. Nobody knows how many of those unvaccinated people have been naturally infected but assuming 20% you are under 9M “eligible hosts”. At 83,000 cases a day that would mean nearly 1M additional people or over 11% of the eligible population would be infected in the next 2 weeks. If that did happen the wave would likely end shortly after that as the “supply of victims“ would run out fast. I think people will naturally curb their behaviors before that happens anyway. Right now the 7 day average is over 12,000 but that’s a lot of growth in less than 2 weeks to get to 83,000.

don't cherry pick the stats though

Statewide, the Mayo Clinic forecast tool said Florida will be reporting a seven-day rolling average of 49,398 cases of COVID-19 per day by August 9, a 132% increase from the current numbers. The overall range showed Florida could be reporting just 31,357 cases on the low end or 83,548 on the high end.

Perhaps there ends up being a day or two at the peak that reaches that level but every single outbreak wave has burned out after a period of time. Even with no change in mitigation after the wave begins the cases don't just keep increasing endlessly and they don't infect all eligible hosts. I have no idea why they work that way but for each wave/spike it doesn't appear that anything close to herd immunity is required for it to subside. Not reaching herd immunity just keeps the door open for future waves/spikes.

I have no idea what the exact seven day rolling average will peak at but based on both India and the UK, I would be very surprised if the peak doesn't happen within a few days of 8/6. Assuming that occurs, I'd expect that the spike will end around and case numbers will return to late June levels around 9/17.

Hopefully this motivates more people to get vaccinated. While it probably won't help them that much with this spike since it takes 5-6 weeks to become fully vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna, it will lower the likelihood of a future spike.

Taking a deeper dive into what @GoofGoof posted, according to the latest FL report, 12,060,711 residents are not fully vaccinated. Using the at least one dose statistics (they don't break down fully vaccinated by age), 69% of the unvaccinated residents are under 40 and 80% of the unvaccinated residents are under 50. This is significant for two reasons. First, it means that 80% of the people who are not well protected against severe illness or death are in the age group that isn't at high risk to begin with.

Second, because the total cases skew younger (even before the vaccines), it means that a higher percentage of the unvaccinated are protected by natural immunity than you would calculate if you just do it based on total numbers. For FL residents under 50, 12.58% of the population has had a documented case. If you double that, which is the low estimate for actual infections, 25% of the unvaccinated under 50 should have natural immunity.

For 50+, where the risk starts to become higher, 23% are unvaccinated. It's hard to say how many are one shot only. Based on the totals, 13.6% of the "vaccinated) are not fully vaccinated. If that's the case, to be conservative (although I'd expect more of the older population got both shots), let's say 33% of 50+ are not fully vaccinated. Looking at cases, 9.38% of residents 50+ have a documented case. That means roughly 19% of the 33% should have natural immunity, leaving about 27% of the 50+ population at some level of risk for serious illness or death.

I guess this long and somewhat rambling post is trying to make two points. First, even when looking at "cases," the current spike in FL will almost certainly be limited in duration to 11-12 weeks beginning to end, regardless of what projections say. Second, because of the uneven vaccination rates across age groups combined with protection from prior infection, this spike will not lead to "bodies piled up in hallways" like some portray. The overwhelming majority of the 50+ population (where risk starts to noticeably increase has protection from severe illness and over 85% of the most at risk (65+) are protected against severe disease/death.

 

[lazyboy97o]

If you’re vaccinated, why do you care what other people do?

You wouldn’t care if you had a major surgery cancelled?

 

[DisneyCane]

Problem is, epidemiologists are calculating herd immunity for delta at closer to 100%.

Which means that it is impossible to reach herd immunity. However, as India and the UK (so far) illustrate, it doesn't appear that herd immunity is necessary to end spikes/waves. However, without herd immunity there is always a risk of future spikes/waves.

So, protect yourself by getting vaccinated and stop with the "mitigation forever" stuff. It is highly unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 will ever be eradicated. I do not care how high the level of daily cases gets. As long as people who have chosen to protect themselves are protected from severe illness and death at a high probability, there should not be ANY mitigation that has any detrimental effect on the lives of others. I include being annoyed or uncomfortable as a detrimental effect.

 

[DisneyCane]

This one is new as of tonight -

"As we have done since reopening, we’ve been very intentional and gradual in our approach to our COVID-19 health and safety protocols. Based on recent trends and regulatory guidance, Walt Disney World Resort will be making adjustments to these measures, which may continue to change at any time without notice."

I'm pretty sure it said that early in the day yesterday. I have no idea what it said before or exactly when it changed.

 

[DisneyCane]

So are we back to “only deaths matter” again??

another good hoaxer classic to dust off…

I should have taken out extra whiplash insurance

I'm taking it to a new level. The only thing that matters is death or severe illness in fully vaccinated people or children under 12. If that stays low, nothing that happens to anybody who could be vaccinated and didn't get vaccinated matters to me AT ALL.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Which means that it is impossible to reach herd immunity. However, as India and the UK (so far) illustrate, it doesn't appear that herd immunity is necessary to end spikes/waves. However, without herd immunity there is always a risk of future spikes waves.

So, protect yourself by getting vaccinated and stop with the "mitigation forever" stuff. It is highly unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 will ever be eradicated. I do not care how high the level of daily cases gets. As long as people who have chosen to protect themselves are protected from severe illness and death at a high probability, there should not be ANY mitigation that has any detrimental effect on the lives of others. I include being annoyed or uncomfortable as a detrimental effect.

And then if you saying that highly unlikely SARS-CoV-2 will ever be eradicated, then the future spikes may getting doom as possible every year, but who knows maybe this is why mitigation forever is important for us for many many years, that is totally stinks for my entire life of nothing in the future.

 

[correcaminos]

I get text messages. More than one until I fill it in when 7 days are up.

Woah! I feel neglected now

 

[KrzyKtty]

And then if you saying that highly unlikely SARS-CoV-2 will ever be eradicated, then the future spikes may getting doom as possible every year, but who knows maybe this is why mitigation forever is important for us for many many years, that is totally stinks for my entire life of nothing in the future.

It never will be eradicated, but eventually the heavy risk associated with it will level out. While this is a different virus then the Spanish flu of 1918, similarities can be viewed. It also had four major spikes across a two year period. Basically, with vaccinations and natural immunities, the virus will eventually work its way through a large enough population percentage that no more people tend to die of this virus than any other. It does not mean that people won't be affected by it, but people are still affected by the flu. What we're trying to aim for is taking the sting out of this particular one. But yes, to a certain degree I do think this will permanently change our country. I do think that we will be more aware as the people of mitigation factors during seasonal virus periods. What I don't expect though is masterographical mask mandates going into the future. I'm more or less expect pockets of people deciding it's flu season and they'd rather not catch a bug.

 

[lazyboy97o]

It never will be eradicated

Why? Why is it impossible to do something that has been done before?

 

[DisneyFan32]

It never will be eradicated, but eventually the heavy risk associated with it will level out. While this is a different virus then the Spanish flu of 1918, similarities can be viewed. It also had four major spikes across a two year period. Basically, with vaccinations and natural immunities, the virus will eventually work its way through a large enough population percentage that no more people tend to die of this virus than any other. It does not mean that people won't be affected by it, but people are still affected by the flu. What we're trying to aim for is taking the sting out of this particular one. But yes, to a certain degree I do think this will permanently change our country. I do think that we will be more aware as the people of mitigation factors during seasonal virus periods. What I don't expect though is masterographical mask mandates going into the future. I'm more or less expect pockets of people deciding it's flu season and they'd rather not catch a bug.

I doubt about this future of COVID-19, but if this still gonna chances COVID-19 could might be eradicated if the millions of people SHOULD'VE get a vaccinated by months ago, then COVID-19 will be eradicated or little problems soon, I'm so worried in the future that I'll get COVID-19 or not, I'm scared about this now, geez, now this is REALLY GONNA SCARED ME for rest of my lives now.....I'll be probably vaccinated and protection from COVID-19 for many years now if the study shows the protection from COVID-19 will be many years is true.

 

[jlhwdw]

Why? Why is it impossible to do something that has been done before?

There was potential to contain and eradicate it in January 2020. By the time we all figured out what was going on in March it was too late

 

[Heppenheimer]

Why? Why is it impossible to do something that has been done before?

We could eradicate smallpox because it was relatively easy to identify who was infectious and quarantine them, while vaccinating everyone quickly during an outbreak. Also, smallpox had no known animal reservoir, so we only needed to eliminate it in humans.

For similar reasons, measles should have been gone by now, but the worldwide will to maintain the proper public health measures simply hasn't been there.

One of the biggest problems with SARS-Cov-2 is that we still are not great at identifying in real-time who can and will spread the disease. And we still don't know if there is an animal reservoir, or if the crucial genetic change occurred when the virus jumped to humans.

I don't see this disease ever being eradicated, but we should be able to handle outbreaks better. Like GoofGoof has said, restrictions should be a dial responsive to local conditions, not a blanket on/off switch.

 

[KrzyKtty]

Why? Why is it impossible to do something that has been done before?

Because this virus is too quick to adapt... This isn't even the first covid strain, just the first that is reached this level of pandemic. This is going to be more like the flu in the long run with multiple variants running around where we might get seasonal shots for whatever variant they think is going to be strongest that year. The viruses that we manage to eradicate off the face of the Earth were much more stable. We still haven't even fully eradicated polio all across the world and that's been decades. The only widely known one is smallpox and that was a miracle.

 

[GoofGoof]

So are we back to “only deaths matter” again??

another good hoaxer classic to dust off…

I should have taken out extra whiplash insurance

Deaths are certainly not the only thing that matters but why is it bad to see some positive in the fact that the vaccines are doing their job and protecting most of the highest risk people and despite a large spike in cases in certain areas in the US and previously in the UK, we aren’t seeing deaths spike? This isn’t something to be ”dusted off”, it’s a fact and it’s a great thing. Not everything has to be part of the fight, it’s not only “tastes great“ or “less filling”.

 

[GoofGoof]

Because this virus is too quick to adapt... This isn't even the first covid strain, just the first that is reached this level of pandemic. This is going to be more like the flu in the long run with multiple variants running around where we might get seasonal shots for whatever variant they think is going to be strongest that year. The viruses that we manage to eradicate off the face of the Earth were much more stable. We still haven't even fully eradicated polio all across the world and that's been decades. The only widely known one is smallpox and that was a miracle.

But so far Covid hasn’t mutated to the point that it evades the vaccines in almost 18 months now and multiple mutations. If in a perfect world we were able to vaccinate every person (or likely 90%+) Covid would be virtually gone. Then it becomes like measles where when an outbreak occurs you can handle it in small events.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deaths are certainly not the only thing that matters but why is it bad to see some positive in the fact that the vaccines are doing their job and protecting most of the highest risk people and despite a large spike in cases in certain areas in the US and previously in the UK, we aren’t seeing deaths spike? This isn’t something to be ”dusted off”, it’s a fact and it’s a great thing. Not everything has to be part of the fight, it’s not only “tastes great“ or “less filling”.

There’s nothing wrong with that as long as it’s not an excuse to do what you want and move the goal posts to justify it…which has been a revolving door since March 2020.

to be clear: I know you are NOT doing that…but many will that’s why I quoted it.

the reality is probably this: we should just measure the confirmed infection cases and do what we have to - not what we want to - and drive them down.

 

[KrzyKtty]

But so far Covid hasn’t mutated to the point that it evades the vaccines in almost 18 months now and multiple mutations. If in a perfect world we were able to vaccinate every person (or likely 90%+) Covid would be virtually gone. Then it becomes like measles where when an outbreak occurs you can handle it in small events.

Yeah..... Really don't see that happening.

Edit.. And I don't say that to be a snarky witch. I genuinely genuinely do not see how that will be possible. I mean look around us.

 

[KrzyKtty]

And iterations of the Corona virus family have been around for centuries. If it's so easy to eradicate with a vaccine, why didn't they develop one decades ago and start then? Probably because they were very different strains, and that's what I mostly meant up above. We might be able to eradicate this one mutation of the Corona virus, but I don't see us eradicating all strains of it. Therefore it's still going to be around.