Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Archie123

Archie123

Well-Known Member
Casper Gutman said:
Because of the thing that is happening RIGHT NOW. The fact that everyone at WDW - and around the country - are being inconvenienced and worse by those who won't be responsible.

Oh, and also because doctors and nurses and non-COVID patients are all impacted by skyrocketing hospitalization. That is more important then the theme park thing.
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Chi84

Chi84

Premium Member
Parker in NYC said:
Well, they know where their bread’s buttered. Subject to change is better than nothing.
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I just think it’s recognizing that protocols will be changing more frequently now as the need arises to respond to local spikes or surges. For example in Illinois we’re still in pretty good shape - we don’t meet the CDC’s numbers for reinstating indoor masks. If the situation in Florida improves WDW will want to respond quickly.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
helenabear said:
Just curious, did you get an email recently reminding you to do your covid diary? I got one recently and wondered if it was an auto send or if it's because I no longer do the diary for the old one and on the back end it hasn't registered that I "quit" it for a new study.
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I get text messages. More than one until I fill it in when 7 days are up.
 
hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Doesn't the math still work with your explanation? If the same amount of spit is getting through the mask but each droplet of spit has 1000x the virus particles, you still end up with 9000% of the virus particles escaping the mask which is over 8x the virus particles with no mask of the prior variants.

For doctors and nurses, they are using PPE designed to block 95% of even aerosolized particles. Maybe 5% of any viral or bacterial load isn't enough to infect. As far as I've seen, cloth masks don't really block any aerosols, only droplets. For the few bacteria or viruses that might be more contagious than that, hazmat suits would be used.
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As I understand things...

There are no particles small enough to still be considered small aerosols capable of escaping masks, that contain 1000x virions of SARS-COV-2. On the one end, the smallest particles contain 0, 1 or 2 virions. With Delta they still only contain 0, 1 or 2 virions. Laypeople have a vision of a particle dominated with viruses, due to bad drawings in media representations, when in reality, these small particles are mostly fluid and salt with only a few virions each. If 1000s of virions is what you are envisioning, you have to just stop, clear your mind and start over.

Experts went through a big re-evaluation of what makes an aerosol particle. Old, erroneous guidance was 5 microns or less. New guidance has the size going up to 100 microns. These are the particles that determine transmission. But even for these, the studies calculated what percentage per size were likely to have 0 vs 1 or 2 virions not hundreds or thousands. Larger the size, larger the probability of containing at least 1 virion. More infectious of a person, greater the probability of a smaller particle containing at least 1 virion. Virus, presumably lots of virus, however, is still expelled in particles bigger than 100 microns. There is a chemist who specializes in aerosol particle distribution (usually regarding pollution), here in Colorado who, with others wrote a FAQ about aerosol transmission about what happens to SARS-COV-2 expelled in particles between 100-300 microns.

"Thus there is a “valley of death” between 100 and 300 μm where particles typically cannot infect as aerosols or ballistic droplets (when talking at typical distances). Particles of those sizes are unlikely to participate in infection, except for coughs and sneezes where the stronger exhaled momentum propels them farther, or by deposition and the fomite route. [me: and masks interrupt this relationship by affecting the escape velocity]

There are also particles larger than 300 microns that usually are quickly dropping to the ground and aren't participating in transmission, but when someone is in close contact could be. [me: masks!]

So what we really have to know is the number of the small micron particles, capable of escaping masks, that previously contained no virus, which now contain 1 or 2 virions, and 1s that are now 2s. This is undoubtedly a larger number than before, and with no resistance via a barrier, does have an impact on transmission. That's why we're talking about a factor of twice the infectivity R(0), but we aren't talking about 1000x. The total number of these small particles hasn't increased as that is controlled by the type of breathing activity you are doing, and your physiology; not number of virions. So there is a theoretical maximum in the number of virions these small particles can deliver. Masks continue to filter out some percentage of these particles. We presumably disagree on the percentage. Neither you or I have any idea of how many of these particles have switched states, but I have seen nothing from the experts who know how the math and physics really work indicate that when you account for the number of these, and the number of virions they actually contain, it's enough to make mask usage ineffective. Large ballistic, droplets, via close contact are delivering even more virions, but since these are large droplets, masks are effective at blocking them.

But any mask is only as effective as the amount of time people actually wear it.

As for the other thing, mask usage still originated with tuberculous and 1-5 micron sized particles in the late 19th century and the mask quality available to people at that time (not 21st century medical grade). Still performed well enough to be recognized and adopted.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
This thing will peak in a week or 2 and start on the downward trajectory. I have no actual evidence to support that but it’s possible. The 3 month arc says back to normal by mid to end of Sept. You could be cutting it close.
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I believe you are right. Since the number of possible victims of Covid19 is limited to the unvaccinated or those who haven't had Covid19 there are only 100 million possible victims left. If heard immunity with such a high variant is about 80% once we are down to 60 million uninfected and unvaccinated we will be fine, only 20 million more victims or vaccinated needed. If we could get back to 2 million vaccinations a day like we had in January we could be there in 5 weeks. TAKE THE SHOT. GET VACCINATED SO WE CAN BEAT COVID19 INTO THE GROUND.
 
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