Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GregIsNewAroundHere]

Just to put a little perspective out there. According to the CDC, FL has had 407.3 cases per 100k total in the last seven days. Infected people are thought to be contagious for less than a week (IIRC it was thought to be 4-5 days). If we triple the cases per 100k to account for undetected cases we get to 1,221.9. This is the maximum number that are out and about and contagious currently. That translates to a 1.22% chance that the random stranger you come into contact with is contagious. Said the opposite way, there's a 98.78% chance they aren't contagious.

If you come into contact with 100 random people, there is at least an 80% chance that none of them are contagious.

Obviously, some people will come into contact with contagious people and get infected but in most situations on a normal day for most people, the risk is low.

This analysis is based on FL which is having a large spike in cases right now. It will be even lower risk in most other places.

How many people does the average guest come into close contact with during a day at the magic kingdom? Google suggests the park has about 100k visitors a day. If you pass in close proximity to 30,000 people in an average day of visiting the parks (no idea, just a number) you’d come into contact with 360 contagious people per day of a Disney trip by your math. If that’s true, and delta has an r0 of between 6-8, where does that put the average park guests risk of infection?

 

[chrisvee]

I think the allowance of one to make their own judgement in this matter is detrimental to his goal.

Then presumably if there is noncompliance and numbers rise, he’ll take the step to mandate. His track record indicates he’ll do what needs to be done.

 

[DisneyFan32]

By this fall/winter, as virus mutating even worse to end current vaccines, can booster vaccine will stop future variants soon?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

By this fall/winter, as virus mutating even worse to end current vaccines, can booster vaccine will stop future variants soon?

No one can answer these questions right now. The virus is always mutating...so we're watching and if vaccines need to be tweaked and boosters given, they will be.

 

[Jenny72]

Well. I just got a text informing me that a family member in central FL who was supposed to have a cardiovascular procedure today had to postpone it for several weeks because the hospital cannot handle it. Too many Covid patients. This isn't bunion removal or something; it's pretty serious. So much for a vaccine protecting you from the consequences of Covid.

 

[ABQ]

Then presumably if there is noncompliance and numbers rise, he’ll take the step to mandate. His track record indicates he’ll do what needs to be done.

I'm sure he will and I'm hopeful he won't have to, it's that the 4 items he highlighted are all either things that are judgement calls or unknowns to anyone. So though they are specific things he's identified, each can be interpreted differently by different individuals.

 

[SamusAranX]

Yup. Being nice, being patient, having compassion, explaining the underlying science over and over again, including trying to show again and again that 90% and 99.9999% aren't even close when you're dealing with millions of individuals, offering incentives, etc. None of this has worked. It's time to start putting on our big boy pants laying down the hammer. If you want to participate in society, you need to take the necessary steps to keep society healthy and safe.

The government doesn't ask us nicely to pay taxes, and speed limits are not discretionary (despite what some drivers seem to think...), and theoretically. These are things we are expected to do as adults, and there's laws to enforce compliance. Now that it appears COVID-19 has become an existential threat to our way of life, it's time for governments and private businesses to do what it right, and what we've done before for polio, measles, smallpox, meningitis, pertussis, diptheria and several other diseases- no vaccine, no play, no fun, no work.

My CEO finally came around and got vaccinated. Yesterday, he announced to the company, that’s it’s time to stop messing around with misinformation and get your shot. Not an outright mandate, but a very forceful speech that I was proud of.

I am going to be a good person and when I go get my haircut put my mask on today, for the first time in public in two months. I’m sick of it, but it is what it is. I really loathe society sometimes.

 

[BaconPancakes]

So will Disney be bringing back masks soon or not? I’ll be there in 10 days.

 

[SamusAranX]

Jacksonville and the Jags were never a to right fit hence the tarps to cover the upper bowl. The game that attracted a lot of fans was when Brady and the Pats came to town . It is sad when the Jags play at home on national TV and looking at the rows of empty seats in the lower bowl. There is always that rumor of the Jags moving to London where their billionaire owner is based even though he currently denies it. Green Bay looks like the most passionate city for NFL football not so in Jacksonville.

Could you just stop? I posted statistics earlier that clearly disprove your narrative of the jags having the worst fan base in NFL and moving to London but you conveniently ignored it

 

[Heelz2315]

If WDW hasn't announced anything by Friday I'd be stunned. An announcement late Friday would protect stock prices. Not sure when they have announced in the past but that's my guess.

 

[Polkadotdress]

According to the CDC data, NY is 62.6% of the population with at least one shot and FL is 56.9%. My point was that NY is not utilizing vaccine passports to incentivize more vaccination but they are not that much closer to the necessary level than FL is. It was in response to the person saying that FL kicked an own goal by outlawing vaccine passports. Where they are legal, arguably needed and governed by people more inclined to implement that kind of thing, they aren't being implemented either.

Hmmmm….I am only seeing that FL is at 48.6% vaxx’d.

 

[BaconPancakes]

If WDW hasn't announced anything by Friday I'd be stunned. An announcement late Friday would protect stock prices. Not sure when they have announced in the past but that's my guess.

@wdwmagic has indicated masks will be back, but wonder why we don’t have an announcement yet?

 

[mmascari]

So will Disney be bringing back masks soon or not?

Yes, one of those.

 

[AEfx]

@wdwmagic has indicated masks will be back, but wonder why we don’t have an announcement yet?

Because it has been less than 24 hours since the CDC updated guidance, and I'm sure they are trying to figure out how to deal with this mess, just like everyone else.

If I were a betting man, I'd say masks will be back indoors by the weekend at WDW.

 

[DisneyCane]

Hmmmm….I am only seeing that FL is at 48.6% vaxx’d.

Your number is fully. The numbers I quoted are at least one shot.

 

[DCBaker]

@wdwmagic has indicated masks will be back, but wonder why we don’t have an announcement yet?

We may find out what is in store when Mayor Demings speaks this afternoon (his COVID-19 presser was moved from Thursday to today).

 

[Disney Experience]

There is also the curious case of Canada. High vaccination rate and low case levels. Hmmmm.

Wait I forgot, most don't know it exists

When I was young I lived in California working for a fortune 100 company. They had a policy that domestic flights are coach and international trips we fly business.

I had a business trip to Toronto, Canada. So I asked our Director, “For trip from California to Toronto, I should have them book me in Business class right?”. He replied, “No , the company considers Canada as domestic”. I laughed.

 

[jpinkc]

If WDW hasn't announced anything by Friday I'd be stunned. An announcement late Friday would protect stock prices. Not sure when they have announced in the past but that's my guess.

Because it will affect profits from anti mask/anti vax crowd. They wont come to the parks if they have to wear a mask. If I was running Disney I would say proof of Vax to enter the property. Meaning anywhere on WDW property. Protect the workers and guests alike. But they are not brave enough to do the only thing that seems to get any attention!! I know several companies that are starting this approach, my wife just saw to co workers let go over refusing to get Vax or wear masks as mandated at her employer.

 

[mmascari]

According to the CDC data, NY is 62.6% of the population with at least one shot and FL is 56.9%. My point was that NY is not utilizing vaccine passports to incentivize more vaccination but they are not that much closer to the necessary level than FL is. It was in response to the person saying that FL kicked an own goal by outlawing vaccine passports. Where they are legal, arguably needed and governed by people more inclined to implement that kind of thing, they aren't being implemented either.

A 5.7% point gap isn't close, FL is 10% behind the current NY value as a goal. Behavior in general is also different in NY vs FL, and that behavior independent of any mandates makes a difference. NY should be doing better too, but clearly they're doing better managing spread while still not enough are vaccinated.

Hmmmm….I am only seeing that FL is at 48.6% vaxx’d.

56.9% with one dose, 48.6% fully. The full gap is 8.2% points.

 

[chrisvee]

Don’t see the vagueness myself. We’ve previously been given definitions of crowded, public, and indoors, plus he makes a blanket statement that if you don’t know people’s vax status, mask up.

I think these only lack specificity to people disinclined to comply. That’s probably the underlying concern for both of us.

Clearly we can see from posts on this thread that there are people who won’t comply unless they are furnished with all the source data and can actually do the analysis for themselves even if it requires expertise they themselves don’t have to the same degree as the CDC.