Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[techgeek]

Off topic, can you really hear a sonic boom at WDW from a rocket launch? I saw a Space Shuttle launch as I was walking out of Universal Studios a while ago and there was no sound. I did hear a sonic boom that rattled the windows at my house in South Florida when a Space Shuttle passed overhead on the way to land at KSC.

A launch? No you don’t hear sonic booms from a launch, even viewing from KSC. Generally speaking rockets are at too high an altitude when crossing over to supersonic for the wave to reach the ground. Today’s launch was a SpaceX Falcon 9, and there was a possibly of sonic booms being heard in the area from the first stage landing back at the Cape.

Back when the shuttle was still flying, large swaths of Central Florida were treated to sonic booms as it would fly over the state on landing approach.

Typically SpaceX lands well down-range on a barge in the ocean, but today was a rare landing back on land. I’ve heard F9 landing booms in downtown Orlando before, so depending on weather and atmospheric conditions it wouldn’t be impossible to hear one at Disney or universal, … although conditions would have to be right.

… and to stay on topic, as someone who got J&J, I’ve been closely following the discussion regarding a possible mRNA booster for it. Holding out for some official guidance on that, hopefully sooner rather than later, but when it comes I’ll jump right on it.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Looks like we got big problems now:

Looks like Princess Elsa from Frozen is not gonna rule the kingdom anymore. She's moved from Annabelle to Florida now. Just let it go, guys. She's not friends with her sister, Anna anymore.
Is this tropical storm is aheading into NJ and NY in another seven days?

 

[correcaminos]

That's when you make a loop in your belt to hang it at your hip.

When you're 5' those sabers are not easily worn at the hip I'd have to get the retractable ones.

 

[Incomudro]

I’ll tell my 11 year old.

Get your poking stick back out kid. Anyone comes close enough to share their gross lung air with you, poke them hard.

You're kids going to be fine.

 

[mmascari]

I get that they are rushing everything and things change but it bugs me when they originally said “don’t choose your vaccine take the first one that is offered to you” and now that might not have been the best advice.

It was, and still is, good advice.

I've had months of protection. Totally worth it.

That's completely independent from the question if this variant is a problem now and needs a booster of something to provide more protection.

With the total lack of information, we don't even know if a second J&J shot would be just as good. Or, maybe it's all just a paranoid reacting to "it was just 1 shot when the rest were 2, clearly 2 is bigger than 1" and there's nothing to worry about at all. Practice doing a big sigh of relief.

 

[mmascari]

That's when you make a loop in your belt to hang it at your hip.

When you're 5' those sabers are not easily worn at the hip I'd have to get the retractable ones.

The retractable ones don't pack enough poke force. It's a real problem.

They fit in great as on theme though.

 

[mmascari]

Agreed! Best i find now is that the articles I read were not really studied well enough. I apologize for misunderstanding what I read. Have family in town and well... yeah hadn't seen them in 1.5 years...

Booster may be needed for J&J shot as Delta variant spreads; some experts already taking them

Infectious disease experts are weighing the need for booster shots of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA-based vaccines for Americans who received Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose vaccine du…

whnt.com

No worries, the reporting, guidance, and process area all still very unclear for this.

From the article:

There is no substantial data showing how protective the J&J vaccine is against the new variant. However, UK studies show that two doses of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or AstraZeneca vaccines are significantly more protective against the variant than one.

So, we don't know anything but 2 sounds better than 1, let's imply that's the case.

“While the situation has gotten so much better in the U.S., the Delta variant that’s spreading … and really quickly taking over in the U.S. looks a little more concerning in terms of the breakthrough infections with the single-dose vaccines,” he said. “So I took the plunge.”

They're reporting anecdote as if it's some fact. With the same lumping together of "single-dose vaccines", but it's seems clear that's a misrepresentation too. Sure, we're seeing lots of delta issues when compared to a "single-dose of a two dose vaccine" but that's not the same as issues with a "single-dose of a single dose vaccine". The entire point of the differences was that the single dose of the "single dose vaccine" was already effective enough and more equivalent to "two doses of a two dose vaccine". That's the comparison we need to see. It would be like saying delta is a problem for those that only got half a dose of J&J. No duh, they only got half a dose it's not going to work like a full dose would.

We don't need a full on trial of getting a second after J&J. What we need is some real analysis from an area that gave out J&J. If in the breakthrough cases they're seeing, is there a difference in what they're breaking through. Combined with some smaller safety trial on the cross impacts (which seems fine), and the response it seems to generate. Tens or hundreds, not thousands and months. It's an incremental question not starting from scratch.

All those people in the article that got a second shot now fall into one of three categories:

1. The lied and abused the vaccine distribution system that checks if you've previously gotten a vaccine. Then compounded the abuse by getting one dose and showing up as incomplete by not getting the second. Not to mention counting twice as vaccinated but only once for population breaking that metric.
2. They abused their position in vaccine distribution to get a shot on the sly.
3. They're part of some trial on the worth, but hiding that they're part of the trial.

None of those is a great message to be sending for someone who wants to be respected in the community.

 

[correcaminos]

No worries, the reporting, guidance, and process area all still very unclear for this.

From the article:

So, we don't know anything but 2 sounds better than 1, let's imply that's the case.


They're reporting anecdote as if it's some fact. With the same lumping together of "single-dose vaccines", but it's seems clear that's a misrepresentation too. Sure, we're seeing lots of delta issues when compared to a "single-dose of a two dose vaccine" but that's not the same as issues with a "single-dose of a single dose vaccine". The entire point of the differences was that the single dose of the "single dose vaccine" was already effective enough and more equivalent to "two doses of a two dose vaccine". That's the comparison we need to see. It would be like saying delta is a problem for those that only got half a dose of J&J. No duh, they only got half a dose it's not going to work like a full dose would.

We don't need a full on trial of getting a second after J&J. What we need is some real analysis from an area that gave out J&J. If in the breakthrough cases they're seeing, is there a difference in what they're breaking through. Combined with some smaller safety trial on the cross impacts (which seems fine), and the response it seems to generate. Tens or hundreds, not thousands and months. It's an incremental question not starting from scratch.

All those people in the article that got a second shot now fall into one of three categories:

1. The lied and abused the vaccine distribution system that checks if you've previously gotten a vaccine. Then compounded the abuse by getting one dose and showing up as incomplete by not getting the second. Not to mention counting twice as vaccinated but only once for population breaking that metric.
2. They abused their position in vaccine distribution to get a shot on the sly.
3. They're part of some trial on the worth, but hiding that they're part of the trial.

None of those is a great message to be sending for someone who wants to be respected in the community.

Some of the other articles I read were more vague and gave the impression that it was based on actual numbers which I would've been okay with. This article was much more clear and I don't disagree. I've not been a fan of anyone "going rogue" and doing things differently because they thought it was best. Even delaying 2nd dose is proving an issue for the Delta variant on all vaccines. I do feel bad that my quicker reading of vague articles led me to believe differently. Chalk it up to appropriate time not given.

I do trust when real data is used. Doesn't have to be a study, but has to be properly studied to me.

The retractable ones don't pack enough poke force. It's a real problem.

They fit in great as on theme though.

No they do not! We have one at home... clip sadly broke too, so harder to carry around. Still we have not been able to toss it. As they are fun to whack people with. Just not great for poking

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm not sure if this was mentioned here yet:

COVID-19 vaccine generates immune structures critical for lasting immunity

The first two COVID-19 vaccines authorized for emergency use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) employed mRNA technology, which had never before been used in FDA-approved vaccines. A new study has found evidence that the immune response to such vaccines is both strong and potentially...

www.sciencedaily.com

"Will I need a booster?" appears to be a pretty common question we see here. There's two separate mechanisms that will determine the answer. One is if the existing vaccines remain effective against new variants, the second is if the immunity induced by the vaccines will endure. So far, the answer for all the vaccines approved in the US for the first question seems to be "yes", minus the uncertainty over the delta variant for Johnson & Johnson. The linked study above adds more evidence to the second question, that at least the mRNA vaccines appear to provide lasting immunity (Johnson & Johnson wasn't evaluated for this study). Only continued clinical observation will provide the definitive answer, but this at least adds further reassurance. If the results hold up, then an escape variant should be the only reason to need a booster if you received an mRNA vaccine

 

[danlb_2000]

I'm not sure if this was mentioned here yet:

COVID-19 vaccine generates immune structures critical for lasting immunity

The first two COVID-19 vaccines authorized for emergency use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) employed mRNA technology, which had never before been used in FDA-approved vaccines. A new study has found evidence that the immune response to such vaccines is both strong and potentially...

www.sciencedaily.com

"Will I need a booster?" appears to be a pretty common question we see here. There's two separate mechanisms that will determine the answer. One is if the existing vaccines remain effective against new variants, the second is if the immunity induced by the vaccines will endure. So far, the answer for all the vaccines approved in the US for the first question seems to be "yes", minus the uncertainty over the delta variant for Johnson & Johnson. The linked study above adds more evidence to the second question, that at least the mRNA vaccines appear to provide lasting immunity (Johnson & Johnson wasn't evaluated for this study). Only continued clinical observation will provide the definitive answer, but this at least adds further reassurance. If the results hold up, then an escape variant should be the only reason to need a booster if you received an mRNA vaccine

I have been wondering, if an fully vaccinated person gets infected, does that also help boost immunity?

 

[HeartOfTeFiti]

Some official or official adjacent reference would be super helpful. I’m not even sure how someone would schedule a single mRNA shot after the J&J without lying along the way somewhere. At minimum about having the first or skipping the second. Some real plan would be helpful.

I got my J&J in the pharmacy of a local grocery store. When I made the appointment I had to digitally sign the consent for all 3 vaccines. I didn't know what I was getting until I arrived day of. I was disappointed when I found out which one was being given that day but I followed the advice of get what you can as soon as you can. This was the first week of April and appointments were still scarce.
My plan now is to make an appointment at a different grocery store pharmacy (one where I know they only give Pfizer) and just hope they don't give me a hard time. I mean, if they ask if it's my first or second dose and I say first, that's true, right? I don't know what else to do. I can't stay inside forever and I've gone until now restricting myself to a small bubble with small kids that can't get a vaccine. They need me. I need to continue to keep the bubble as safe as possible but I do need to start going out more just to function.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I have been wondering, if an fully vaccinated person gets infected, does that also help boost immunity?

That's a very hard question to answer at this time. We know that vaccination produces a more substantial antibody response than natural infection, but I couldn't find any published data that distinguishes antibody levels in vaccinated individuals based on whether or not they were previously infected. And I believe the clinical trials that haven't yet wrapped up specifically excluded those with prior COVID-19 infections, so this isn't a question the trials will be able to answer.

Or, you would need to compare two different cohorts... the re-infection rate in vaccinated individuals with prior infections (so, essentially, a double-break through of natural infection plus vaccination) versus infection in people who were vaccinated first. I don't think there's a single case reported worldwide of the first situation.

 

[DisneyCane]

Is the potential issue with J&J that it is a lot less effective vs. Delta than the baseline for J&JJ or is the issue just that it is less effective to begin with and the increased transmissibility of Delta turns that into an issue?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Is the potential issue with J&J that it is a lot less effective vs. Delta than the baseline for J&JJ or is the issue just that it is less effective to begin with and the increased transmissibility of Delta turns that into an issue?

The issue is both inadequate data, and comparison to AstraZenica, which uses a very similar technology . Most of what we know about the efficacy of the mRNA and AstraZenica vaccines versus the delta variant comes from the UK. Johnson & Johnson/Janssen hasn't really been deployed there yet. AstraZenica was found to be considerably less effective versus the delta variant compared to the mRNA vaccines, but still has respectable efficacy.

In the US, we're very early in our "delta wave", and because Janssen is our least-used of the three vaccines, we haven't yet reached a critical mass of test cases to measure it's efficacy.

EDIT: I changed my response slightly after looking up the information on AstraZenica.

 

[Disney Experience]

Where/how do you think you caught it? And what was your current public stance—mask or not? There’s been some debate lately over the policy for having vaxx’d people continue with masks, yet no action has been taken either way.

Likely church. I was in a volunteer meeting for those who will help entertain children while parents in need picked up free groceries, and I had been to a service. The pastor, other adults and many youths all came down with covid about the same time I did. So my guess is I got it then. Masks had just been made optional the week before. I had been to one or two restaurants, home depot, and work. So had to be one of those places.

Masks is an interesting question. Does it mitigate? I believe studies show it is of some help. But I think compliance with large population vaccinated is hard to enforce. I think the mitigation for those vaccinated (If the vaccines are effective against a specific dominate variant) of a mask does not outweigh the social costs at this time. But if numbers start to climb it may once again be something that might bring some help (As does social distancing). To me it is all in the numbers, how many are coming down with covid, are the numbers decreasing, are deaths and hospitalizations decreasing. Are they decreasing fast or very slowly.

I am currently not wearing a mask at work. The science says I am not contagious at this point post covid, as well as being fully vaccinated. Hopefully I am now one of the least likely people to get or transmit covid. [Though I cannot point to primary sourced research to support my opinion, it seems a reasonable supposition].

Interestingly my wife who attended church as I did, but otherwise mostly stays home did not get covid (She is Phase 3 Moderna trial vaccinated in October). I do have Reme Halo () in my Air Conditioner system at home as well as hepa filters, so my house is fairly hostile to mold, bacteria, and viruses. I kept the room I stayed in while sick with covid at a slight negative air pressure relative to the rest of the house too.[i.e. kept an exhaust vent in bathroom on]. Hopefully these decreased the chances of her getting it from me.

 

[Disney Experience]

A launch? No you don’t hear sonic booms from a launch, even viewing from KSC. Generally speaking rockets are at too high an altitude when crossing over to supersonic for the wave to reach the ground. Today’s launch was a SpaceX Falcon 9, and there was a possibly of sonic booms being heard in the area from the first stage landing back at the Cape.

Back when the shuttle was still flying, large swaths of Central Florida were treated to sonic booms as it would fly over the state on landing approach.

Typically SpaceX lands well down-range on a barge in the ocean, but today was a rare landing back on land. I’ve heard F9 landing booms in downtown Orlando before, so depending on weather and atmospheric conditions it wouldn’t be impossible to hear one at Disney or universal, … although conditions would have to be right.

… and to stay on topic, as someone who got J&J, I’ve been closely following the discussion regarding a possible mRNA booster for it. Holding out for some official guidance on that, hopefully sooner rather than later, but when it comes I’ll jump right on it.

Living on Merritt Island, I can say some launches or reentries (Space X) cause my whole house to shake and rattle. Most do not.

I lost a mirror on a mantle when I had a housekeeper who moved it too close to wall (it was not attached). Came home to a broken mirror after a launch.

 

[Disney Experience]

That's a very hard question to answer at this time. We know that vaccination produces a more substantial antibody response than natural infection, but I couldn't find any published data that distinguishes antibody levels in vaccinated individuals based on whether or not they were previously infected. And I believe the clinical trials that haven't yet wrapped up specifically excluded those with prior COVID-19 infections, so this isn't a question the trials will be able to answer.

Or, you would need to compare two different cohorts... the re-infection rate in vaccinated individuals with prior infections (so, essentially, a double-break through of natural infection plus vaccination) versus infection in people who were vaccinated first. I don't think there's a single case reported worldwide of the first situation.

Trials actually allowed people that had covid to be part of Phase 3, as long as they had not loss sense of taste and smell. Locally the research site said back in August/Sept 10-20% of potential subjects tested positive.

I think some studies show a much stronger antibody response with those who have had covid and then got vaccinated, than those who just had covid. (I linked some of the studies many, many months ago)

Now having covid after being vaccinated, I do not think there are any studies out there that looked into it, and I agree I think there are no studies of those who had covid, then got vaccinated, and got covid again.

 

[mmascari]

Is the potential issue with J&J that it is a lot less effective vs. Delta than the baseline for J&JJ or is the issue just that it is less effective to begin with and the increased transmissibility of Delta turns that into an issue?

Could be either or neither and it's just fine.

Maybe delta broke out from J&J specifically.
Maybe delta is just so much more transmissive that that it reduces all vaccine performance, and J&J started lower.
Maybe J&J is just fine and it's all perception of "only 1 shot" comparing J&J to a single mRNA dose.

The bigger issue is, for those that got the J&J, there just hasn't been much reporting.

Combined with individual stories, some from high profile people and doctors, about getting a second shot with one of the mRNA vaccines after the J&J. Nobody knows if those people are actually achieving anything or not. I feel like it's a rather safe experiment to put oneself through not some radical thing likely to harm yourself. It might not do anything, nobody is publishing anything based on data.

I need to continue to keep the bubble as safe as possible but I do need to start going out more just to function.

This largely depends on your community. Spread is so low overall in my community, I'm not worried at all. I'm not quite doing everything yet, but that's mostly because my kid isn't vaccinated and we're not doing stuff they cannot do. If I lived in Missouri though, I wouldn't get near anybody.

 

[Animal_Kingdom_09]

I really wish there was a serious effort made to explain this to the public. The only difference between EUA and full approval is additional time spent to see if the vaccines remain effective. The paperwork filed by Pfizer and now Moderna relies on the exact same safety data used to get EUA.

While I agree with your comment, it is going to be difficult to explain it away when the authorization form that you sign when you get vaccinated clearly discloses that it is not approved or licensed by the FDA (see the first paragraph on page 2).

"I understand that this product has not been approved or licensed by FDA, but has been authorized for emergency use by FDA, under an EUA to prevent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) for use in individuals either 16 years of age or older or 18 years of age and older; and the emergency use of this product is only authorized for the duration of the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of the medical product under Section 564(b)(1) of the FD&C Act unless the declaration is terminated or authorization revoked sooner"

Florida Vaccine Consent Form

Regardless, I think this issue is a smokescreen anyway. We are getting close to the group of people who are not going to get vaccinated for any reason. The high vax rates we see for other diseases are most likely because we require kids to get them. The rollout of the polio vaccine in the 1950's actually had a lot of issues and plenty of people who resisted getting it, but nobody talks about that anymore. The same is true for smallpox.

 

[GoofGoof]

While I agree with your comment, it is going to be difficult to explain it away when the authorization form that you sign when you get vaccinated clearly discloses that it is not approved or licensed by the FDA (see the first paragraph on page 2).

"I understand that this product has not been approved or licensed by FDA, but has been authorized for emergency use by FDA, under an EUA to prevent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) for use in individuals either 16 years of age or older or 18 years of age and older; and the emergency use of this product is only authorized for the duration of the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of the medical product under Section 564(b)(1) of the FD&C Act unless the declaration is terminated or authorization revoked sooner"

Florida Vaccine Consent Form

Regardless, I think this issue is a smokescreen anyway. We are getting close to the group of people who are not going to get vaccinated for any reason. The high vax rates we see for other diseases are most likely because we require kids to get them. The rollout of the polio vaccine in the 1950's actually had a lot of issues and plenty of people who resisted getting it, but nobody talks about that anymore. The same is true for smallpox.

There’s nothing to explain away. I wasn’t suggesting that we tell people the vaccines were approved or licensed by the FDA. As the disclosure states they are authorized for emergency use by the FDA. What I was suggesting is that the government and experts spend more time explaining the difference between full approval and EUA and specifically that they highlight that EUA does not mean untested or Not proven to be safe. The forms sent in for full authorization require the same safety requirements as those filed for EUA. The major difference between the 2 is 6 extra months of time to show efficacy holds up. I‘ve heard many people say they would feel more comfortable with the safety of the vaccines if they were fully approved but the safety requirements for EUA are just as rigorous.

I don’t disagree that a lot of the people using the “full authorization“ excuse are probably never going to get vaccinated but some will. We are down to a trickle, but every extra shot is a positive. In the month of June we vaccinated an additional 4% of the adult population plus a bunch of kids 12+. We hit 2/3 of adults with at least 1 shot by the end of June. The pace is slow but hasn’t stopped completely. Full authorization could push us over 70% on the way to 75%. I doubt we get much higher than that but who knows.