Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Speaking of "back of the envelope" math, Trevor Bedford presented a possible US outcome for Delta in a Twitter thread a couple days ago.

TL;DR: Estimates 38% of the US population is vulnerable (unvaccinated, no previous infection). Given UK numbers, estimates 29% of that group will be infected. Resolving into 11% of the US population that will be infected or about 36 million people. But large margin of error / low confidence, given "back of envelope" math.

That’s one way to get to herd immunity….not the easy way, but a possible path. When the dust settles in the next month of so on vaccinations I expect we will be around 60% of the total population vaccinated (including nobody under 12). 10.5% of the population has tested positive but the total actually infected could be as high as 20% or more. If we assume roughly half the natural infections came in the unvaccinated group it’s probably safe to assume around 10% of the population is unvaccinated but naturally immune. So 60% immune with vaccines and 10% naturally immune but unvaccinated gets us around 70% immune. If we then add 11% more of the population to that number we likely get above 80% immune which may be good enough to reach herd immunity and end the pandemic here. It will certainly be enough once a portion of the 15% of the population who are under 12 get added into the vaccinated group. If we get to hundreds of thousands or millions of cases a day (as suggested) it will also light a fire under the unvaccinated group and boost the vaccine numbers. Again, not the easy way, but a path that may work.

 

[lisa12000]

Here’s the stark reality of the UK situation…


Currently, the doubling time is 9 days.


So by the 19th July we will have 90,000 cases a day - when all restrictions including masks go. The equivalent to the USA would be nearly 450,000 cases a day.

Hospitalisations? Important to consider…. But you just cannot simply ignore 90k cases a day.

The stark reality is that hospitalisations and deaths are really the most important metric abs they are still low

can I ask what your solution would be? You come on all doom and gloom but never suggest a solution?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Not a good look.

Most residents under 40 don't have their first dose?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The stark reality is that hospitalisations and deaths are really the most important metric abs they are still low

can I ask what your solution would be? You come on all doom and gloom but never suggest a solution?

Can we all please stop with the "doom and gloom" accusations, please?

It's been over a freaking year. The "let's put people into boxes" thing is getting very old.

 

[disneygeek90]

Most residents under 40 don't have their first dose?

It's a shame. I'm 30 and have been fully vaxxed for 2 months...

Meanwhile there's non vaccinated people walking around my office of hundreds that wore a mask for the first few weeks, but now apparently stopped caring.

 

[Flugell]

It's a shame. I'm 30 and have been fully vaxxed for 2 months...

Meanwhile there's non vaccinated people walking around my office of hundreds that wore a mask for the first few weeks, but now apparently stopped caring.

I’m glad to hear that you are fully vaccinated!
I think that if I were in your situation with people you believe are unvaccinated but not wearing masks I would be rather sneaky! I would congratulate one of them on becoming vaccinated and see what the response is! They may have been vaccinated, in which case no harm done or they may admit that they are not vaccinated which could lead to an interesting conversation! Maybe a bit mean but if your work requires them to be masked then they should abide by the rules.
Please do not respond that masks aren’t necessary or that they don’t have any purpose, my argument is that if the employer requires non vaccinated people to wear masks then they should do so. They don’t have the option to ignore instructions or think they know better.
If your employer does not instruct/insist on non vaccinated wearing masks then you have no recourse or justification for complaining. I realise you were simply making an observation and expressing emotion not complaining as such.

 

[DisneyCane]

Most residents under 40 don't have their first dose?

It's not just FL that is like that. People under 40 have had a very low vaccination rate since they became eligible everywhere. They don't really seem to care if they get infected and can't be bothered to get vaccinated (even if they aren't "anti-vax" per se).

 

[DisneyFan32]

Here are the summer hotspots in the US where COVID-19 is resurging

COVID-19 hotspots are emerging in California, Nevada, Missouri and Arkansas fueled by the highly transmissible delta variant and lagging vaccination rates.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Florida is still near the top as far as cases per capita goes. Meanwhile in Canada, where vaccine numbers have surpassed the USA on a per capita basis, most provinces rank lower on the list. Go figure.

COVID-19 in the U.S.: How do Canada's provinces rank against American states?

Looking at confirmed coronavirus cases per million people, how do the U.S. states compare to Canada's provinces and territories?

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[GoofGoof]

It's a shame. I'm 30 and have been fully vaxxed for 2 months...

Meanwhile there's non vaccinated people walking around my office of hundreds that wore a mask for the first few weeks, but now apparently stopped caring.

That’s too bad. The company should require proof of vaccination to not wear a mask. Easy way to ensure everyone stays safe and encourages more people to get vaccinated.

 

[disneygeek90]

I’m glad to hear that you are fully vaccinated!
I think that if I were in your situation with people you believe are unvaccinated but not wearing masks I would be rather sneaky! I would congratulate one of them on becoming vaccinated and see what the response is! They may have been vaccinated, in which case no harm done or they may admit that they are not vaccinated which could lead to an interesting conversation! Maybe a bit mean but if your work requires them to be masked then they should abide by the rules.
Please do not respond that masks aren’t necessary or that they don’t have any purpose, my argument is that if the employer requires non vaccinated people to wear masks then they should do so. They don’t have the option to ignore instructions or think they know better.
If your employer does not instruct/insist on non vaccinated wearing masks then you have no recourse or justification for complaining. I realise you were simply making an observation and expressing emotion not complaining as such.

The one I know of I know isn’t vaccinated… because I had several discussions with her about it over the past few months. I guess I could jokingly bring it up and see what she says. But I’m nearly 100% sure she isn’t vaccinated, and the last communication we got from work told us that if you’re not vaccinated, you should wear a mask.

 

[danlb_2000]

Can we all please stop with the "doom and gloom" accusations, please?

It's been over a freaking year. The "let's put people into boxes" thing is getting very old.

Unless they are cats...

 

[Flugell]

The one I know of I know isn’t vaccinated… because I had several discussions with her about it over the past few months. I guess I could jokingly bring it up and see what she says. But I’m nearly 100% sure she isn’t vaccinated, and the last communication we got from work told us that if you’re not vaccinated, you should wear a mask.

That’s really sad and unfair on people like you, who have been vaccinated and any who are immunocompromised.
Words fail me that people can behave in such a way.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I hope COVID-19 surge will get bigger by end of the year in USA if Delta variant gets even worse so there will be lockdowns again.
I'm afraid the masks on public transportation will never be lifted soon by September....I hope they will lift mask mandate soon for public transportation sooner than September.

 

[lisa12000]

Can we all please stop with the "doom and gloom" accusations, please?

It's been over a freaking year. The "let's put people into boxes" thing is getting very old.

I genuinely don’t care what you think lf my post - but when that one person just comes on this thread without any context quoting a well know anti govt independent safe acinetist about number of cases every single day! Suggesting that the world is falling down over then I will say that the only reason they are doing it is to create worry and fear not only in the UK but elsewhere! I’ve never ever come on this thread before saying such a thing and if you look back I’m usually on the optimistic side and wouldnt accuse people of such a thing but I’m sorry this poster is annoying me and despite people trying to engage with this poster they tend to post an run only to come back and do the same the next day! No one else I am aware of does this on this thread

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I genuinely don’t care what you think lf my post - but when that one person just comes on this thread without any context quoting a well know anti govt independent safe acinetist about number of cases every single day! Suggesting that the world is falling down over then I will say that the only reason they are doing it is to create worry and fear not only in the UK but elsewhere! I’ve never ever come on this thread before saying such a thing and if you look back I’m usually on the optimistic side and wouldnt accuse people of such a thing but I’m sorry this poster is annoying me and despite people trying to engage with this poster they tend to post an run only to come back and do the same the next day! No one else I am aware of does this on this thread

Then put them on ignore.

There have been way too many people screaming accusations of "doom and gloom" when those they are accusing just want to be cautious and would prefer that our leadership not be in such a rush to drop any and all mitigations.

I don't know who that poster is and don't care what they write, to be frank. I just want the accusations from both sides to fracking quit already.

 

[correcaminos]

Then put them on ignore.

There have been way too many people screaming accusations of "doom and gloom" when those they are accusing just want to be cautious and would prefer that our leadership not be in such a rush to drop any and all mitigations.

I don't know who that poster is and don't care what they write, to be frank. I just want the accusations from both sides to fracking quit already.

Let's be real, there are those all on different levels here. Some that many have said were uncaring and not taking it serious to doom and gloom to everything in between. We cannot say no to calling out one type if we are allowed to address others.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Let's be real, there are those all on different levels here. Some that many have said were uncaring and not taking it serious to doom and gloom to everything in between. We cannot say no to calling out one type if we are allowed to address others.

If you look at my post above the one you're responding to, you'll see that I said "all". I'm as done as burnt toast with it from both sides.

 

[Chi84]

I genuinely don’t care what you think lf my post - but when that one person just comes on this thread without any context quoting a well know anti govt independent safe acinetist about number of cases every single day! Suggesting that the world is falling down over then I will say that the only reason they are doing it is to create worry and fear not only in the UK but elsewhere! I’ve never ever come on this thread before saying such a thing and if you look back I’m usually on the optimistic side and wouldnt accuse people of such a thing but I’m sorry this poster is annoying me and despite people trying to engage with this poster they tend to post an run only to come back and do the same the next day! No one else I am aware of does this on this thread

I’m tired of the sky is falling stuff also, especially when it’s based on data and quotes taken completely out of context. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with pointing that out.

 

[LittleBuford]

I’m tired of the sky is falling stuff also, especially when it’s based on data and quotes taken completely out of context. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with pointing that out.

A term like "doom and gloom" doesn't help, however. It is disparaging and dismissive, making light of what may be another person's genuine concerns. One can question or challenge alternative viewpoints without belittling them.