Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Polkadotdress]

@Disney Experience

Thanks for your candid reply re: your illness journey. I am so glad that you are on the “other side” of recovery, and are vaxx’d.

As a vaxx’d, but immunocompromised person, I worry about illness rates for vaccinated people. So hearing about your episode worries me…I am always masked while indoors in public, but am mask-free outdoors. I may have to revert to all mask, everywhere again.

 

[Parker in NYC]

The high vax rates we see for other diseases are most likely because we require kids to get them.

If only we treated the adult children who oozed out of the slime last year, with the same care.

 

[Heppenheimer]

The issue is both inadequate data, and comparison to AstraZenica, which uses a very similar technology . Most of what we know about the efficacy of the mRNA and AstraZenica vaccines versus the delta variant comes from the UK. Johnson & Johnson/Janssen hasn't really been deployed there yet. AstraZenica was found to be considerably less effective versus the delta variant compared to the mRNA vaccines, but still has respectable efficacy.

In the US, we're very early in our "delta wave", and because Janssen is our least-used of the three vaccines, we haven't yet reached a critical mass of test cases to measure it's efficacy.

EDIT: I changed my response slightly after looking up the information on AstraZenica.

Well, that didn't take long for my post yesterday to become outdated.

I'm on my phone, so I can't link the news item, but Janssen (J&J) announced that in lab studies, the neutralizing antibodies from its vaccine were effective against the delta variant. That's not quite real-world data, but about as good as we can get for now until delta really starts causing a large accumulation of cases.

The same study also showed a strong immune response remained after at least 8 months, which means the induced immunity from the vaccine should endure. Combined, these two results make the need for possible near-term boosters less likely.

 

[Think Tink]

@Disney Experience

Thanks for your candid reply re: your illness journey. I am so glad that you are on the “other side” of recovery, and are vaxx’d.

As a vaxx’d, but immunocompromised person, I worry about illness rates for vaccinated people. So hearing about your episode worries me…I am always masked while indoors in public, but am mask-free outdoors. I may have to revert to all mask, everywhere again.

I still prefer wearing one indoors as well. I have had breathing issues since last year (non Covid related) but I take extra precautions. I’m going to WDW in a week and a half and already told my friend I will be masking up when inside. It makes me feel more comfortable doing things again and doesn’t hurt anyone so it’s all good for me

I also worry about vaxxed rate of infection but so far from what I see, most people either aren’t getting it, or have a very minor infection.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Here's one of many news reports on the latest findings for Janssen's vaccine:

J&J Covid-19 vaccine lasts at least 8 months, protects against Delta variant, studies find | CNN

The Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine provides immunity that lasts at least eight months, and it appears to provide adequate protection against the worrying Delta variant, the company said in a statement Thursday night.

www.cnn.com

 

[mmascari]

Here's one of many news reports on the latest findings for Janssen's vaccine:

J&J Covid-19 vaccine lasts at least 8 months, protects against Delta variant, studies find | CNN

The Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine provides immunity that lasts at least eight months, and it appears to provide adequate protection against the worrying Delta variant, the company said in a statement Thursday night.

www.cnn.com

That's great.

For the relative few of us that got the J&J, let's hope this holds up.

Hopefully more data and reporting continues, and this entire "need a booster" thing is just a perception thing not based in any data.

Maybe J&J is just fine and it's all perception of "only 1 shot" comparing J&J to a single mRNA dose.

The bigger issue is, for those that got the J&J, there just hasn't been much reporting.

I did hear that the limited J&J two dose study was looking at something more like after 4 months than 4 weeks. I got mine less than 3 months ago, so still well within that window.

Still no J&J regrets.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well, that didn't take long for my post yesterday to become outdated.

I'm on my phone, so I can't link the news item, but Janssen (J&J) announced that in lab studies, the neutralizing antibodies from its vaccine were effective against the delta variant. That's not quite real-world data, but about as good as we can get for now until delta really starts causing a large accumulation of cases.

The same study also showed a strong immune response remained after at least 8 months, which means the induced immunity from the vaccine should endure. Combined, these two results make the need for possible near-term boosters less likely.

So are we back to calling it a “legit” vaccine

 

[Parker in NYC]

So are we back to calling it a “legit” vaccine

To quote Gloria Estefan... there's always tomorrow.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Don’t worry, the “facts” will continue to toggle. Even the WHO and CDC can’t agree on some things. There is no 100 percent answer, good or bad, yes or no, on anything. Everyone must use their own judgement on what’s right for themselves; their best guess. That’s all we can do as individuals.

 

[HeartOfTeFiti]

Well, that didn't take long for my post yesterday to become outdated.

I'm on my phone, so I can't link the news item, but Janssen (J&J) announced that in lab studies, the neutralizing antibodies from its vaccine were effective against the delta variant. That's not quite real-world data, but about as good as we can get for now until delta really starts causing a large accumulation of cases.

The same study also showed a strong immune response remained after at least 8 months, which means the induced immunity from the vaccine should endure. Combined, these two results make the need for possible near-term boosters less likely.

I was glad to see this on my morning news feed. It cooled me off a bit about trying to get a dose of a different vaccine. I'm assuming the 8 month time frame is because that's the duration of available information? As of today, it's been 3 months for me. I had a very strong immune response judging from how sick I felt beginning about 12 hours afterward. I don't know if there is really a correlation between side effects and immune response but I felt encouraged by it.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Don’t worry, the “facts” will continue to toggle. Even the WHO and CDC can’t agree on some things. There is no 100 percent answer, good or bad, yes or no, on anything. Everyone must use their own judgement on what’s right for themselves; their best guess. That’s all we can do as individuals.

Board glitch, I'm sure this is a post from last year.

 

[danlb_2000]

Don’t worry, the “facts” will continue to toggle. Even the WHO and CDC can’t agree on some things. There is no 100 percent answer, good or bad, yes or no, on anything. Everyone must use their own judgement on what’s right for themselves; their best guess. That’s all we can do as individuals.

.. and that has worked out so well over the past 18 months.

 

[Zummi Gummi]

Don’t worry, the “facts” will continue to toggle. Even the WHO and CDC can’t agree on some things. There is no 100 percent answer, good or bad, yes or no, on anything. Everyone must use their own judgement on what’s right for themselves; their best guess. That’s all we can do as individuals.

The WHO and the CDC shouldn’t agree on everything. One is charged with advising one country that has had a fairly robust vaccine rollout, the other advocates for an entire planet where vaccines are much rarer in most places.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I was glad to see this on my morning news feed. It cooled me off a bit about trying to get a dose of a different vaccine. I'm assuming the 8 month time frame is because that's the duration of available information? As of today, it's been 3 months for me. I had a very strong immune response judging from how sick I felt beginning about 12 hours afterward. I don't know if there is really a correlation between side effects and immune response but I felt encouraged by it.

Correct, but it's encouraging, because drawing on experience from other vaccines, if the antibody response hasn't diminished in 6-9 months, that usually means the effect will endure long-term. So, more like a tetanus vaccine, at least, than a seasonal influenza shot.

The study isn't definitive, because the ultimate test is sustained reductions in real world case numbers amongst vaccinated individuals, but it at least gives us further hope.

 

[DCBaker]

Here is the weekly report from the Florida DOH -

 

[DonniePeverley]

Here’s the stark reality of the UK situation…


Currently, the doubling time is 9 days.


So by the 19th July we will have 90,000 cases a day - when all restrictions including masks go. The equivalent to the USA would be nearly 450,000 cases a day.

Hospitalisations? Important to consider…. But you just cannot simply ignore 90k cases a day.

 

[Disstevefan1]

.. and that has worked out so well over the past 18 months.

Agreed, the US at least looks to be coming out of it finally. Let’s hope there is no spike of the variant in the US. Only time will tell.

 

[disneygeek90]

Here is the weekly report from the Florida DOH -

View attachment 568654View attachment 568656View attachment 568657

Not a good look.

 

[GoofGoof]

Here’s the stark reality of the UK situation…


Currently, the doubling time is 9 days.


So by the 19th July we will have 90,000 cases a day - when all restrictions including masks go. The equivalent to the USA would be nearly 450,000 cases a day.

Hospitalisations? Important to consider…. But you just cannot simply ignore 90k cases a day.

Back of the envelope math again. UK has 68M people and 2/3 have at least the first shot leaving roughly 22M people unvaccinated. With 5M known natural infections let’s assume half are in the unvaccinated group. That leaves roughly 20M people with no immunity. If the cases are at 90,000 a day and doubling every 9 days in a little over 30 days all of the people left with no immunity will be infected and the nation will have achieved full herd immunity by mid-August . Since infections are still over 95% in unvaccinated people the math works.

Do I think that will happen? Not likely. What goes up eventually drops down again. No reason to assume cases will double every 9 days indefinitely.

 

[hopemax]

Speaking of "back of the envelope" math, Trevor Bedford presented a possible US outcome for Delta in a Twitter thread a couple days ago.

TL;DR: Estimates 38% of the US population is vulnerable (unvaccinated, no previous infection). Given UK numbers, estimates 29% of that group will be infected. Resolving into 11% of the US population that will be infected or about 36 million people. But large margin of error / low confidence, given "back of envelope" math.