Well, we've said that before in May 2020 and August 2020. Hopefully it's real this time!
The difference between today and last year is the vaccine. Thanks to the scientists and pharmaceutical companies we will win this now. Even NY is down to 9. The reason for the drop this time haa nothing to do with masks and social distancing, even though they help, it's the vaccine and that we have well over half the adults vaccinated. We have 14 more days of reporting this month and it will be interesting to see how low it in on May 31. I predict 6 per 100,000 but wouldn't be shocked with a lower number. It all depends on Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Washington and Colorado. Those 5 states represent 28.55% of the US cases.
Except there was no vaccine back then. No reason to believe it would hold. There is a very specific reason to be optimistic now. Let yourself be optimistic.
Not only that, the system for testing was not as accessible in May of 2020 as it is in May of 2021. It's theoretically a lot easier to find and confirm cases now than it was a year ago, yet it's not happening.
I get your point. We had a late May/early June trip. I was hopeful until they started cancelling our ADRs and such
Any guess when most will be below 3.1/100,000 cases and 0.05/100,000 deaths?
Or you just in general have people with various illnesses, conditions, ailments, etc. showing up to get medication.
I think sooner than we thought. The drop off happens fast. In states that hit the tipping point on vaccines we will hit that point soon. For the states further behind it may not happen at all. They may plateau at a higher number of cases.
incredible example of how fast the tipping point impacts things. I know, I'm going back to the same well of Statnews, but the visual is dramatic in MichiganI think sooner than we thought. The drop off happens fast. In states that hit the tipping point on vaccines we will hit that point soon. For the states further behind it may not happen at all. They may plateau at a higher number of cases.
Yesterday was the first time that all 50 states had declines in covid cases. Trending down across the board. Keep up the jabs and this will all be over soon
We are dosing pretty hard and fast here in NM and still have that same flat case count and though our governor removed much mask requirements just last week, we had be mitigating like it was 2020 for till then and the cases are just flat. Maybe it's the virus being a virus, but with each day that passes as long as some portion of the population gets added to the vaxxed population, those cases will hopefully be mild, not extreme.It's wonderful to see life returning to "normal" in many places, it's wonderful to see cases continue to drop.
And some "regions" may be starting to feel borderline herd immunity effects.
To be clear, even just vaccinating 30-40% of people.. combined with seasonality, was going to lead to huge decreases in cases. But true herd immunity brings us to where Israel is:
Israel's 7-day rolling average is down to 28 cases per day. If you scaled that to the US, you would be talking about UNDER 1,000 cases per day.
With proper vaccination and mitigation until we get there, that's where the US could have been headed.
Sadly, the vaccination numbers continue to plummet, even with 12-15 added:
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.covid.cdc.gov
The last full 7-day average number available is now May May 12, 2021-- when we were averaging a mere 545,000 first doses per day. It appears there was a small bump after that, the 12-15 year-olds, but a very small and very temporary bump.
As per above: May 7: average was 651,000
May 12: 545,000 first doses: 16% drop in under a week.
Also consider, many of these doses are now going to under 18. If we measured adults only, the drop-off would be even more significant.
With the huge relaxation of mitigation -- The vibe I'm getting now is people acting like, "oh, it's over, guess I don't need to get vaccinated after all"
It's going to be quite a challenge (not impossible) to reach 70% of adults vaccinated.
Now, that number is somewhat arbitrary. I don't know what actual number will be required to get to herd immunity. It's possible that we get to herd immunity without that 70%.
But I fear/suspect, that Covid will continue to persist at low but not insignificant levels in areas with low vaccination. We are already seeing this in much of the deep south, where Covid cases are not really dropping very fast, just persisting at a lower flat level than previously.
Illinois has somewhat less than 13 million people, and there have been 11 million doses administered. The 37% fully vaccinated number is deceptive when you consider how highly effective the two-shot vaccines are - people are receiving much more protection than the average flu shot provides after just one dose of those vaccines. One thing I wonder about is how many of those people don't return for the second shot and will therefore never be counted among the fully vaccinated. They are still helping to drop the cases. Our numbers are improving quite a bit every day.
