Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

It's wonderful to see life returning to "normal" in many places, it's wonderful to see cases continue to drop.
And some "regions" may be starting to feel borderline herd immunity effects.

To be clear, even just vaccinating 30-40% of people.. combined with seasonality, was going to lead to huge decreases in cases. But true herd immunity brings us to where Israel is:

Israel's 7-day rolling average is down to 28 cases per day. If you scaled that to the US, you would be talking about UNDER 1,000 cases per day.

With proper vaccination and mitigation until we get there, that's where the US could have been headed.

Sadly, the vaccination numbers continue to plummet, even with 12-15 added:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

The last full 7-day average number available is now May May 12, 2021-- when we were averaging a mere 545,000 first doses per day. It appears there was a small bump after that, the 12-15 year-olds, but a very small and very temporary bump.

As per above: May 7: average was 651,000
May 12: 545,000 first doses: 16% drop in under a week.

Also consider, many of these doses are now going to under 18. If we measured adults only, the drop-off would be even more significant.

With the huge relaxation of mitigation -- The vibe I'm getting now is people acting like, "oh, it's over, guess I don't need to get vaccinated after all"

It's going to be quite a challenge (not impossible) to reach 70% of adults vaccinated.

Now, that number is somewhat arbitrary. I don't know what actual number will be required to get to herd immunity. It's possible that we get to herd immunity without that 70%.
But I fear/suspect, that Covid will continue to persist at low but not insignificant levels in areas with low vaccination. We are already seeing this in much of the deep south, where Covid cases are not really dropping very fast, just persisting at a lower flat level than previously.

May 12 is prior to the 12-15 approval and also prior to the recent CDC changes. Too soon to give up.

I am still pretty confident we get above 70% of adults vaccinated. It will take some time still, but will happen. Right now we are at 155M adults with 1 shot and need to get to 178. 23M more adults. It’s going to happen, but I’m fine with agreeing to disagree. We will see in a few months who is right

 

[GoofGoof]

Pretty impressive start. I know in this area the schools are just starting to ramp up vaccine clinics this week or next for kids in that group. Should see a bump up from that.

 

[ABQ]

So, anyone want to wager a guess on when Disney will drop mask requirements in queues and attractions.

I'm not taking the bet, but I think it hinders on how much the management cares about a-holes berating the cast members who try to enforce the mask rules indoors and in queues. Either they go back to 100% masked or remove it entirely. May also depend on how vaccinated the cast are.

 

[Chi84]

So, anyone want to wager a guess on when Disney will drop mask requirements in queues and attractions.

My prediction is that whenever Florida hits Demings' phase 3, WDW will drop mandatory mask requirements and put up signs saying that people who are not vaccinated are strongly advised to wear masks indoors.

 

[Epcotfan21]

So, anyone want to wager a guess on when Disney will drop mask requirements in queues and attractions.

At this rate, I'd be willing to guess that masks will be fully gone at WDW by Labor Day.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I'm not taking the bet, but I think it hinders on how much the management cares about a-holes berating the cast members who try to enforce the mask rules indoors and in queues. Either they go back to 100% masked or remove it entirely. May also depend on how vaccinated the cast are.

Absolutely. Just looking locally, however much the city reopens, they're still not 'fully-opening' public transportation as masks will still be required. Though who follows that is anyone's guess. It just feels like the masklessness is snowballing and restrictions are evaporating at a (forgive the expression) feverish pace.

 

[havoc315]

May 12 is prior to the 12-15 approval and also prior to the recent CDC changes. Too soon to give up.

Not sure how to tell you this -- 12-15 year-olds aren't adults. So no matter how many 12-15 year-olds get vaccinated, that doesn't help reach the goal of 70% of adults.

I am still pretty confident we get above 70% of adults vaccinated. It will take some time still, but will happen. Right now we are at 155M adults with 1 shot and need to get to 178. 23M more adults. It’s going to happen, but I’m fine with agreeing to disagree. We will see in a few months who is right

Few months? Thought you said we would get there by the end of May?

23 million -- At the current rate, if it doesn't drop any further, would get us there end of June, which is the Biden administration target.
Problem is, you can't expect the drop-offs to suddenly drop. If it finally reaches a bottom plateau of about 300,000 first doses per day, then you're talking about 3 more months, by which time the early vaccinators may be up to their boosters. If the bottom plateau is 200,000, then 4 more months.
The best "game changer" I could have seen to boost vaccination adoption was vaccine passports, but that ship has sailed.
The only smaller "game changer" I can yet possibly foresee, is full FDA approval of the vaccine which may make more schools, employers, military, etc, start to mandate the vaccine. (2 million active and reserve military personnel... if 40% are currently not getting the vaccine, and they all are suddenly required, that would be a quick 800,000 additional vaccinations, for example. Similarly, you could see a rash of 18-25 year-olds get vaccinated over the summer in preparation for college requirements).

 

[havoc315]

At this rate, I'd be willing to guess that masks will be fully gone at WDW by Labor Day.

.... Very conservative.

Gone by July 4th, if not sooner.

 

[havoc315]

We are dosing pretty hard and fast here in NM and still have that same flat case count and though our governor removed much mask requirements just last week, we had be mitigating like it was 2020 for till then and the cases are just flat. Maybe it's the virus being a virus, but with each day that passes as long as some portion of the population gets added to the vaxxed population, those cases will hopefully be mild, not extreme.

New Mexico has been flat.. but flat at a very very low level, under 100 cases per day.

New Mexico overall has done very well with vaccination but like everywhere, it has slowed significantly, from 20k average per day a month ago, down to about 10k per day (and those are mostly second doses). But 55% of NM population already has first dose, so NM is doing very well. New Mexico is currently at 68.7% of adults with at least 1 dose -- they will easily surpass the 70% goal.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not sure how to tell you this -- 12-15 year-olds aren't adults. So no matter how many 12-15 year-olds get vaccinated, that doesn't help reach the goal of 70% of adults.

You just said the rate is dropping despite 12-15 added but the date you used was before 12-15 were added.

Sadly, the vaccination numbers continue to plummet, even with 12-15 added:

 

[Kevin_W]

The only smaller "game changer" I can yet possibly foresee, is full FDA approval of the vaccine which may make more schools, employers, military, etc, start to mandate the vaccine. (2 million active and reserve military personnel... if 40% are currently not getting the vaccine, and they all are suddenly required, that would be a quick 800,000 additional vaccinations, for example. Similarly, you could see a rash of 18-25 year-olds get vaccinated over the summer in preparation for college requirements).

I don't know if it qualifies as a "game changer", but Ohio did have an uptick in adult vaccines after announcing the 5x million dollar lottery giveaway. So if more states did something similar perhaps it would have a national effect.

My libertarian-leaning BIL is fairly incensed by this use of tax dollars. I remind him that if people like him had gotten vaccinated int he first place, we wouldn't need incentives.

 

[havoc315]

You just said the rate is dropping despite 12-15 added but the date you used was before 12-15 were added.

Correct -- And any subsequent increase is due to the addition of 12-15, not the addition of adults.

 

[GoofGoof]

Few months? Thought you said we would get there by the end of May?

Are we really playing this game? Should I go back to the last earnings call thread and pull up your posts insisting I was way wrong about masks or distancing being relaxed at WDW this Summer

I have been wrong about more than I’ve been right about and I admit it openly. It’s not too hard to do, you should try it

 

[havoc315]

I don't know if it qualifies as a "game changer", but Ohio did have an uptick in adult vaccines after announcing the 5x million dollar lottery giveaway. So if more states did something similar perhaps it would have a national effect.

My libertarian-leaning BIL is fairly incensed by this use of tax dollars. I remind him that if people like him had gotten vaccinated int he first place, we wouldn't need incentives.

Those gimmicks will certainly get some people vaccinated. Not sure if it will be enough to reverse the decline in vaccination rates, as opposed to just slow down the decline a little.

 

[Michaelson]

This news bulletin just popped up. Should prove interesting to watch:

Several states report zero COVID deaths for the first time in months

Texas reported reaching the milestone for the first time since March 2020.

www.axios.com

Texas was one of the first States to unmask and was the one referred to as being 'Neanderthal' in their thinking on the 'science' when they did it, and only 32% of their population vaccinated. Interesting results!
Regard! Michaelson

 

[GoofGoof]

Correct -- And any subsequent increase is due to the addition of 12-15, not the addition of adults.

We can actually look at that and see since they break out 12-17 year olds. Again, the 7 day average May 12 numbers don't have 12-15 year olds in them.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Now, that number is somewhat arbitrary. I don't know what actual number will be required to get to herd immunity. It's possible that we get to herd immunity without that 70%.
But I fear/suspect, that Covid will continue to persist at low but not insignificant levels in areas with low vaccination. We are already seeing this in much of the deep south, where Covid cases are not really dropping very fast, just persisting at a lower flat level than previously.

I suspect that once the seasonality aspect of COVID returns, you'll see a sharp difference in regions that will correlate with the vaccination rates.

 

[havoc315]

Are we really playing this game? Should I go back to the last earnings call thread and pull up your posts insisting I was way wrong about masks or distancing being relaxed at WDW this Summer

I have been wrong about more than I’ve been right about and I admit it openly. It’s not too hard to do, you should try it

I've been wrong about plenty, often happily so. So far, I'm not wrong about what I said about summer: Go back to the February earnings call, I quoted Chapek, that some level of masking and social distancing would remain for the summer. So far, that's correct -- But I am now hopeful that both masking and social distancing will be completely gone by July. And I'll very very happily accept being wrong!

I also said I expected much of the WDW "abnormal" to continue through the summer, because it wasn't directly related to Covid. So far, I've been correct -- EMH was cancelled, River of Light and Finding Nemo, permanently cancelled shows. The opening of Space 220 delayed, still multiple resorts and restaurants with no re-opening dates. No apparent return of FP (possibly gone forever). So as I said, much of the "abnormal" is continuing over the summer, some of it potentially permanently.
I'm hoping I was wrong about all that as well -- Hope they bring back the full Halloween party, full night-time EMH, fast passes, Rivers of Light, etc.

 

[havoc315]

We can actually look at that and see since they break out 12-17 year olds. Again, the 7 day average May 12 numbers don't have 12-15 year olds in them.

Yes --- that's what I said.

 

[havoc315]

I suspect that once the seasonality aspect of COVID returns, you'll see a sharp difference in regions that will correlate with the vaccination rates.

That's what I'm expecting as well. You won't see the spike of last fall, but you'll see more moderate sized spikes in some areas.