Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Patcheslee]

I got the most confusing letter from my daughter's school yesterday. There were 6 cases in her school over 2 days, including 1 student in her science class.

She was identified as a "close contact" and must go into a "modified quarantine". But for the "modified quarantine" it's fine for her to go to school/sports/extra-curriculars as long as she is asymptomatic. So the "modified quarantine" is no different than any other day. (School maintains at least 3' of distance, often more and both she and other student were masked.)

She was fairly concerned about the whole thing so we went and got a rapid Covid test (negative) to help her peace of mind.

They aren't given her the equivalent to In School Suspension are they? That would be an odd option.

 

[Chi84]

Exactly. I don't believe the Governor has the authority for this to be done via EO (nor do I believe any of the COVID related EOs are actually legal under FL law). However, the legislature can pass a law to ban vaccine passports. Such a ban would not be unconstitutional at a State or Federal level.

It won't really be tricky if the legislature bans them. A business can want them but won't legally be allowed to require them at that point.

Some states, like Michigan, are proposing legislation that prohibits the state from issuing vaccine passports but does not prohibit businesses from requiring proof of vaccination. It takes time for legislation to pass, and I wouldn't speak to the legality of anything not yet in existence. Right now, the federal government has decided not to act in this area, but that could change. So could the politicians passing such laws if they aren't what the people want - but it's likely the situation with COVID will change in ways yet unknown before that can happen.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Looks like even if you recover from COVID-19, your risk of all-cause mortality goes up by over 50% against matched controls within 6 months (and probably beyond, but the study only looked this far):

‘Long Hauler’ Study Shows Covid Can Kill Months After Infection

One of the largest studies of Covid-19 “long haulers” has proved what many doctors suspected: Not only are many patients suffering a raft of health problems six months after infection, they’re also at significantly greater risk of dying.

www.bloomberg.com

This is the first published data that confirms what we suspected for awhile. In addition to the official death toll from COVID-19, there is also a very real indirect but delayed increase in mortality.

 

[Chi84]

"Social distancing will not be required in the fully vaccinated-only section, according to the news release. People in those sections will be seated directly next to others.

Face coverings must be worn in sections 166LG and 168LG, except while actively eating or drinking in the ticketed seat, the team said."​

It's unfortunate that this point alone will make the unvaccinated say "what's the motivation and draw of this fully vaccinated section then?"

Right, you still have to wear a mask but you get to be crammed in next to other people. Sign me up!

 

[Kevin_W]

They aren't given her the equivalent to In School Suspension are they? That would be an odd option.

No. With 6 kids testing positive in 2 days and the cross-section of what classes they take... they would be suspending pretty much the whole school.

Basically, they are saying they think the school mitigation measures work (many, many cases in our district, but none traced to contact within the school). But they are required to inform you. It's just that the wording is weird.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I got the most confusing letter from my daughter's school yesterday. There were 6 cases in her school over 2 days, including 1 student in her science class.

She was identified as a "close contact" and must go into a "modified quarantine". But for the "modified quarantine" it's fine for her to go to school/sports/extra-curriculars as long as she is asymptomatic. So the "modified quarantine" is no different than any other day. (School maintains at least 3' of distance, often more and both she and other student were masked.)

She was fairly concerned about the whole thing so we went and got a rapid Covid test (negative) to help her peace of mind.

I don't think the people running that school know the meaning of the word "quarantine," nor do they understand the concept of pre-symptomatic spread. I can't blame them, though - it's only been 13 months since we learned about this.

 

[danlb_2000]

"Social distancing will not be required in the fully vaccinated-only section, according to the news release. People in those sections will be seated directly next to others.

Face coverings must be worn in sections 166LG and 168LG, except while actively eating or drinking in the ticketed seat, the team said."​

It's unfortunate that this point alone will make the unvaccinated say "what's the motivation and draw of this fully vaccinated section then?"

This sort of works like a vaccine passport. If the rest of the stadium, which needs to be distanced, sells out, you still have the ability to get tickets in this section if you are vaccinated.

 

[havoc315]

The pause of JNJ may get lifted today but even if lifted, there will be very limited supply of JNJ for at least a couple more weeks, and potentially no significant supply of JNJ for several months.

White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures

The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.

www.politico.com

The good news is that there is sufficient supply Pfizer and Moderna for all adults. The downside is that it is harder to use those vaccines for outreach to rural areas, mobile vaccination sites, etc, because of the more difficult storage and need for 2 shots. And I do believe there is a segment of the population specifically waiting on JNJ for another 1-shot vaccine because they don't want to do 2 shots.

Meanwhile, vaccine hesitancy is accelerating especially among some more rural communities:

US drop in vaccine demand has some places turning down doses

Demand for the coronavirus vaccine has fallen off in some places around the United States to the point where some counties are turning down new shipments of doses.

apnews.com

 

[danlb_2000]

Looks like even if you recover from COVID-19, your risk of all-cause mortality goes up by over 50% against matched controls within 6 months (and probably beyond, but the study only looked this far):

‘Long Hauler’ Study Shows Covid Can Kill Months After Infection

One of the largest studies of Covid-19 “long haulers” has proved what many doctors suspected: Not only are many patients suffering a raft of health problems six months after infection, they’re also at significantly greater risk of dying.

www.bloomberg.com

This is the first published data that confirms what we suspected for awhile. In addition to the official death toll from COVID-19, there is also a very real indirect but delayed increase in mortality.

This has been a problem from the very beginning, people only focusing on deaths to decide how risky things are. We just don't have a good handle on other outcomes yet. There have a been a few studies recently that indicate kids might suffer more post-infection issues then we originally assumed.

 

[havoc315]

This sort of works like a vaccine passport. If the rest of the stadium, which needs to be distanced, sells out, you still have the ability to get tickets in this section if you are vaccinated.

Yes... imagine WDW did that (they won't, but imagine they did): Have hours set aside for "general admission" to certain rides, but instead of EMH for on-site guests... have hours set aside solely for vaccinated people to enjoy the ride/land without social distancing. Have a preferred seating section at Fantasmic for vaccinated, so that there is only limited room in the back for unvaccinated. etc.

 

[havoc315]

This has been a problem from the very beginning, people only focusing on deaths to decide how risky things are. We just don't have a good handle on other outcomes yet. There have a been a few studies recently that indicate kids might suffer more post-infection issues then we originally assumed.

And deaths, especially early, were likely significantly under-reported.
I have Covid 3 months ago, I'm still feeling some symptoms.

This is somehow still a misconception that it really only affects really old and sick people who were at death's door anyway.

 

[jlhwdw]

Analysis: Hygiene theater, mask theater, climate theater

Americans have spent more than a year without live access to the performing arts, so maybe we can all be forgiven for engaging in a bit of theater.

www.cnn.com

This is an interesting trend to follow. I was riveted by an NPR interview yesterday with frequent CNN guest Dr. Ashish Jha about whether masks outdoors are worth it.
Here's the key exchange between Jha and the interviewer, Mary Louise Kelly:
Kelly: There will be people listening to us who are screaming at their radios right now saying it's still spreading and the variants are out there and so far, most people aren't fully vaccinated. You shouldn't be having this conversation yet. What do you say to them?
Jha: I understand that, first of all. But it's really important to be able to have a nuanced discussion of what is safe and what is not. Because one of the problems is if we can't have that discussion, then some people will adhere to all the rules, even ones that are not necessarily very useful, and other people will just ignore all of them.
And right now, while cases are spreading, while the variants are out there and very contagious ones like B.1.1.7 [are] really dominant, I do want people to do things that are safe. And part of that is telling people, you know, what restrictions they can let go of. And so I think it's critically important that we keep indoor mask mandates in for a while. We can't give up on those, not while infection numbers are high. But it also means telling people what they can relax on. And wearing masks outside, again, unless you're in a very, very crowded space for extended periods of time, probably doesn't do much to protect you or protect others.

 

[DisneyCane]

Apparently we are very close to 3 feet of social distance over 6 feet. The reasoning will be, once we reach 50% of Americans vaccinated (likely sometime in June), in a group of people spaced 3 feet apart, we would expect, on average, people susceptible to the virus will still be at least 6 feet apart.

If that's the reasoning, then whoever is coming up with the reasoning needs to go back to school. If 50% of people are vaccinated, that means 50% are still susceptible. To use the most simple example, if they are all seated in a row of chairs spaced 3' apart and you choose person "Y," who is not vaccinated (arranged X-Y-Z), there is a 50% chance that person "X" is not vaccinated and a 50% chance that person "Z" is not vaccinated. There is a 25% that both X and Z are vaccinated and a 25% chance that neither X nor Z are vaccinated. Therefore, there is a 75% chance that unvaccinated person "Y" is seated within 3' of somebody else who is not vaccinated.

If you add a second dimension, the chance of sitting within 3' of somebody unvaccinated will go up.

 

[hopemax]

Looks like even if you recover from COVID-19, your risk of all-cause mortality goes up by over 50% against matched controls within 6 months (and probably beyond, but the study only looked this far):

‘Long Hauler’ Study Shows Covid Can Kill Months After Infection

One of the largest studies of Covid-19 “long haulers” has proved what many doctors suspected: Not only are many patients suffering a raft of health problems six months after infection, they’re also at significantly greater risk of dying.

www.bloomberg.com

This is the first published data that confirms what we suspected for awhile. In addition to the official death toll from COVID-19, there is also a very real indirect but delayed increase in mortality.

Saw this yesterday. I think this virus is going to have a nasty tail for many who think they have skated through without consequence. But it will take years for the proof of the more chronic elements and damage to be tabulated. At which point it’s too late for people to get interested in limiting the number of cases and avoid getting sick themselves. Like smoking or playing War Games, “The only winning move is not to play.” (Get sick)

 

[Nubs70]

Some states, like Michigan, are proposing legislation that prohibits the state from issuing vaccine passports but does not prohibit businesses from requiring proof of vaccination. It takes time for legislation to pass, and I wouldn't speak to the legality of anything not yet in existence. Right now, the federal government has decided not to act in this area, but that could change. So could the politicians passing such laws if they aren't what the people want - but it's likely the situation with COVID will change in ways yet unknown before that can happen.

A customer of mine requires proof of negative test before I set foot in the engineering offices. I asked how often to which they said they did not know.

 

[Nubs70]

If that's the reasoning, then whoever is coming up with the reasoning needs to go back to school. If 50% of people are vaccinated, that means 50% are still susceptible. To use the most simple example, if they are all seated in a row of chairs spaced 3' apart and you choose person "Y," who is not vaccinated (arranged X-Y-Z), there is a 50% chance that person "X" is not vaccinated and a 50% chance that person "Z" is not vaccinated. There is a 25% that both X and Z are vaccinated and a 25% chance that neither X nor Z are vaccinated. Therefore, there is a 75% chance that unvaccinated person "Y" is seated within 3' of somebody else who is not vaccinated.

If you add a second dimension, the chance of sitting within 3' of somebody unvaccinated will go up.

Depending in the rate of viral dispersion in respect to distance. Does viral dispersion increase at linear, geometric, exponential or logarithmic rates?

 

[LaughingGravy]

Yes... imagine WDW did that (they won't, but imagine they did): Have hours set aside for "general admission" to certain rides, but instead of EMH for on-site guests... have hours set aside solely for vaccinated people to enjoy the ride/land without social distancing. Have a preferred seating section at Fantasmic for vaccinated, so that there is only limited room in the back for unvaccinated. etc.

But...but...that would create....discrimination! 2 classes of people...the vaccinated and the ______________

 

[ABQ]

Yes... imagine WDW did that (they won't, but imagine they did): Have hours set aside for "general admission" to certain rides, but instead of EMH for on-site guests... have hours set aside solely for vaccinated people to enjoy the ride/land without social distancing. Have a preferred seating section at Fantasmic for vaccinated, so that there is only limited room in the back for unvaccinated. etc.

Actually, I'd rather lose the masks than lose the social distancing. My last visit to the Magic Kingdom last November was one of the best ever with light crowds and not being jammed into a sweaty group of people along Main Street USA.

 

[HarperRose]

Are you saying this was human engineered?

That's been the stance of some all along...because, apparently they've never heard of the common cold.

 

[fgmnt]

Actually, I'd rather lose the masks than lose the social distancing. My last visit to the Magic Kingdom last November was one of the best ever with light crowds and not being jammed into a sweaty group of people along Main Street USA.

They're going to continue increasing capacity, and it's already approaching the point where currently capacity, operational load to handle that capacity, and social distancing are colliding to create a poor experience.